Possible climate change impacts on the hydrological and vegetative character of Everglades National Park, Florida

The increasing threat of global climate change is predicted to have immense influences on ecosystems worldwide, but could be particularly severe to vulnerable wetland environments such as the Everglades. This work investigates the impact global climate change could have on the hydrologic and vegetative makeup of Everglades National Park (ENP) under forecasted emissions scenarios. Using a simple stochastic model of aboveground water levels driven by a fluctuating rainfall input, we link across ENP a location's mean depth and percent time of inundation to the predicted changes in precipitation from climate change. Changes in the hydrologic makeup of ENP are then related to changes in vegetation community composition through the use of relationships developed between two publically available datasets. Results show that under increasing emissions scenarios mean annual precipitation was forecasted to decrease across ENP leading to a marked hydrologic change across the region. Namely, areas were predicted to be shallower in average depth of standing water and inundated less of the time. These hydrologic changes in turn lead to a shift in ENP's vegetative makeup, with xeric vegetative communities becoming more numerous and hydric vegetative communities becoming scarcer. Noticeably, the most widespread of vegetative communities, sawgrass, decreases in abundance under increasing emissions scenarios. These results are an important indicator of the effects climate change may have on the Everglades region and raise important management implications for those seeking to restore this area to its historical hydrologic and vegetative condition.

Ecosystem structure, nutrient dynamics, and hydrologic relationships in tree islands of the southern Everglades, Florida, USA

Tree islands are an important structural component of many graminoid-dominated wetlands because they increase ecological complexity in the landscape. Tree island area has been drastically reduced with hydrologic modifications within the Everglades ecosystem, yet still little is known about the ecosystem ecology of Everglades tree islands. As part of an ongoing study to investigate the effects of hydrologic restoration on short hydroperiod marshes of the southern Everglades, we report an ecosystem characterization of seasonally flooded tree islands relative to locations described by variation in freshwater flow (i.e. locally enhanced freshwater flow by levee removal). We quantified: (1) forest structure, litterfall production, nutrient utilization, soil dynamics, and hydrologic properties of six tree islands and (2) soil and surface water physico-chemical properties of adjacent marshes. Tree islands efficiently utilized both phosphorus and nitrogen, but indices of nutrient-use efficiency indicated stronger P than N limitation. Tree islands were distinct in structure and biogeochemical properties from the surrounding marsh, maintaining higher organically bound P and N, but lower inorganic N. Annual variation resulting in increased hydroperiod and lower wet season water levels not only increased nitrogen use by tree species and decreased N:P values of the dominant plant species (Chrysobalanus icaco), but also increased soil pH and decreased soil temperature. When compared with other forested wetlands, these Everglades tree islands were among the most nutrient efficient, likely a function of nutrient immobilization in soils and the calcium carbonate bedrock. Tree islands of our study area are defined by: (1) unique biogeochemical properties when compared with adjacent short hydroperiod marshes and other forested wetlands and (2) an intricate relationship with marsh hydrology. As such, they may play an important and disproportionate role in nutrient and carbon cycling in Everglades wetlands. With the loss of tree islands that has occurred with the degradation of the Everglades system, these landscape processes may have been altered. With this baseline dataset, we have established a long-term ecosystem-scale experiment to follow the ecosystem trajectory of seasonally flooded tree islands in response to hydrologic restoration of the southern Everglades.

Summertime Influences of Tidal Energy Advection on the Surface Energy Balance in a Mangrove Forest

Mangrove forests are ecosystems susceptible to changing water levels and temperatures due to climate change as well as perturbations resulting from tropical storms. Numerical models can be used to project mangrove forest responses to regional and global environmental changes, and the reliability of these models depends on surface energy balance closure. However, for tidal ecosystems, the surface energy balance is complex because the energy transport associated with tidal activity remains poorly understood. This study aimed to quantify impacts of tidal flows on energy dynamics within a mangrove ecosystem. To address the research objective, an intensive 10-day study was conducted in a mangrove forest located along the Shark River in the Everglades National Park, FL, USA. Forest–atmosphere turbulent exchanges of energy were quantified with an eddy covariance system installed on a 30-m-tall flux tower. Energy transport associated with tidal activity was calculated based on a coupled mass and energy balance approach. The mass balance included tidal flows and accumulation of water on the forest floor. The energy balance included temporal changes in enthalpy, resulting from tidal flows and temperature changes in the water column. By serving as a net sink or a source of available energy, flood waters reduced the impact of high radiational loads on the mangrove forest. Also, the regression slope of available energy versus sink terms increased from 0.730 to 0.754 and from 0.798 to 0.857, including total enthalpy change in the water column in the surface energy balance for 30-min periods and daily daytime sums, respectively. Results indicated that tidal inundation provides an important mechanism for heat removal and that tidal exchange should be considered in surface energy budgets of coastal ecosystems. Results also demonstrated the importance of including tidal energy advection in mangrove biophysical models that are used for predicting ecosystem response to changing climate and regional freshwater management practices.

Multi-Tissue Stable Isotope Analysis and Acoustic Telemetry Reveal Seasonal Variability in the Trophic Interactions of Juvenile Bull Sharks in a Coastal Estuary

Understanding how natural and anthropogenic drivers affect extant food webs is critical to predicting the impacts of climate change and habitat alterations on ecosystem dynamics. In the Florida Everglades, seasonal reductions in freshwater flow and precipitation lead to annual migrations of aquatic taxa from marsh habitats to deep-water refugia in estuaries. The timing and intensity of freshwater reductions, however, will be modified by ongoing ecosystem restoration and predicted climate change. Understanding the importance of seasonally pulsed resources to predators is critical to predicting the impacts of management and climate change on their populations. As with many large predators, however, it is difficult to determine to what extent predators like bull sharks (Carcharhinus leucas) in the coastal Everglades make use of prey pulses currently. We used passive acoustic telemetry to determine whether shark movements responded to the pulse of marsh prey. To investigate the possibility that sharks fed on marsh prey, we modelled the predicted dynamics of stable isotope values in bull shark blood and plasma under different assumptions of temporal variability in shark diets and physiological dynamics of tissue turnover and isotopic discrimination. Bull sharks increased their use of upstream channels during the late dry season, and although our previous work shows long-term specialization in the diets of sharks, stable isotope values suggested that some individuals adjusted their diets to take advantage of prey entering the system from the marsh, and as such this may be an important resource for the nursery. Restoration efforts are predicted to increase hydroperiods and marsh water levels, likely shifting the timing, duration and intensity of prey pulses, which could have negative consequences for the bull shark population and/or induce shifts in behaviour. Understanding the factors influencing the propensity to specialize or adopt more flexible trophic interactions will be an important step in fully understanding the ecological role of predators and how ecological roles may vary with environmental and anthropogenic changes.

Drivers of Decadal-Scale Change in Southern Everglades Wetland Macrophyte Communities of the Coastal Ecotone

Understanding the relationships between hydrology and salinity and plant community structure and production is critical to allow predictions of wetland responses to altered water management, changing precipitation patterns and rising sea-level. We addressed how salinity, water depth, hydroperiod, canal inflows, and local precipitation control marsh macrophyte aboveground net primary production (ANPP) and structure in the coastal ecotone of the southern Everglades. We contrasted responses in two watersheds - Taylor Slough (TS) and C-111 - systems that have and will continue to experience changes in water management. Based on long-term trajectories in plant responses, we found continued evidence of increasing water levels and length of inundation in the C-111 watershed south of the C-111 canal. We also found strong differentiation among sites in upper TS that was dependent on hydrology. Finally, salinity, local precipitation and freshwater discharge from upstream explained over 80 % of the variance in Cladium ANPP at a brackish water site in TS. Moreover, our study showed that, while highly managed, the TS and C-111 watersheds maintain legacies in spatial pattern that would facilitate hydrologic restoration. Based on the trajectories in Cladium and Eleocharis, shifts in plant community structure could occur within 5–10 years of sustained water management change.

The Role of Recharge and Evapotranspiration as Hydraulic Drivers of Ion Concentrations in Shallow Groundwater on Everglades Tree Islands, Florida (USA)

Recently, evapotranspiration has been hypothesized to promote the secondary formation of calcium carbonate year-round on tree islands in the Everglades by influencing groundwater ions concentrations. However, the role of recharge and evapotranspiration as drivers of shallow groundwater ion accumulation has not been investigated. The goal of this study is to develop a hydrologic model that predicts the chloride concentrations of shallow tree island groundwater and to determine the influence of overlying biomass and underlying geologic material on these concentrations. Groundwater and surface water levels and chloride concentrations were monitored on eight constructed tree islands at the Loxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA) from 2007 to 2010. The tree islands at LILA were constructed predominately of peat, or of peat and limestone, and were planted with saplings of native tree species in 2006 and 2007. The model predicted low shallow groundwater chloride concentrations when inputs of regional groundwater and evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates were elevated, while low evapotranspiration-to-recharge rates resulted in a substantial increase of the chloride concentrations of the shallow groundwater. Modeling results indicated that evapotranspiration typically exceeded recharge on the older tree islands and those with a limestone lithology, which resulted in greater inputs of regional groundwater. A sensitivity analysis indicated the shallow groundwater chloride concentrations were most sensitive to alterations in specific yield during the wet season and hydraulic conductivity in the dry season. In conclusion, the inputs of rainfall, underlying hydrologic properties of tree islands sediments and forest structure may explain the variation in ion concentration seen across Everglades tree islands.

Simulating Mechanisms for Dispersal, Production and Stranding of Small Forage Fish in Temporary Wetland Habitats

Movement strategies of small forage fish (<8 cm total length) between temporary and permanent wetland habitats affect their overall population growth and biomass concentrations, i.e., availability to predators. These fish are often the key energy link between primary producers and top predators, such as wading birds, which require high concentrations of stranded fish in accessible depths. Expansion and contraction of seasonal wetlands induce a sequential alternation between rapid biomass growth and concentration, creating the conditions for local stranding of small fish as they move in response to varying water levels. To better understand how landscape topography, hydrology, and fish behavior interact to create high densities of stranded fish, we first simulated population dynamics of small fish, within a dynamic food web, with different traits for movement strategy and growth rate, across an artificial, spatially explicit, heterogeneous, two-dimensional marsh slough landscape, using hydrologic variability as the driver for movement. Model output showed that fish with the highest tendency to invade newly flooded marsh areas built up the largest populations over long time periods with stable hydrologic patterns. A higher probability to become stranded had negative effects on long-term population size, and offset the contribution of that species to stranded biomass. The model was next applied to the topography of a 10 km × 10 km area of Everglades landscape. The details of the topography were highly important in channeling fish movements and creating spatiotemporal patterns of fish movement and stranding. This output provides data that can be compared in the future with observed locations of fish biomass concentrations, or such surrogates as phosphorus ‘hotspots’ in the marsh.

Tree Islands in Everglades Landscapes: Current Status, Historical Changes, and Hydrologic Impacts on Population Dynamics and Moisture Relations, First Annual Report

In 2005 we initiated a project designed to better understand tree island structure and function in the Everglades and the wetlands bordering it. Focus was on the raised portions at the upstream end of the islands, where tropical hardwood species adapted to well-drained conditions usually are the most prominent component of the vegetation. The study design is hierarchical, with four levels; in general, a large number of sites is to be surveyed once for a limited set of parameters, and increasingly small sets of islands are to be sampled more intensively, more frequently, and for more aspects of ecosystem function. During the first year of the 3-year study, we completed surveys of 41 Level 1 (i.e., the least intensive level) islands, and established permanent plots in two and three islands of Levels 2 and 4 intensity, respectively. Tree species richness and structural complexity was highest in Shark Slough “hammocks”, while islands in Northeast Shark Slough and Water Conservation Area 3B, which receive heavy human use, were simpler, more park-like communities. Initial monitoring of soil moisture in Level 4 hammocks indicated considerable local variation, presumably associated with antecedent rainfall and current water levels in the adjacent marsh. Tree islands throughout the study area were impacted significantly by Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma in 2005, but appear to be recovering rapidly. As the project continues to include more islands and repeated measurements, we expect to develop a better grasp of tree island dynamics across the Everglades ecosystem, especially with respect to moisture relations and water levels in the adjacent marsh. The detailed progress report which follows is also available online at http://www.fiu.edu/~serp1/projects/treeislands/tree_islands_2005_annual_report.pd

Loaxahatchee Impoundment Landscape Assessment (LILA): Tree Island Experiments and Management; May 1, 2005 to September 4, 2009: Final Report

Hydrologic modifications have negatively impacted the Florida Everglades in numerous significant ways. The compartmentalization of the once continuously flowing system into the Water Conservation Areas (WCAs) caused disruption of the slow natural flow of water south from Lake Okeechobee through the Everglades to Florida Bay. The ponding of water in the WCAs, the linking of water flow to controlled water levels, and the management of water levels for anthropogenic vs. ecological well-being has caused a reduction in the spatial heterogeneity of the Everglades leading to greater uniformity in topography and vegetation. These effects are noticeable as the degradation in structure of the Everglades Ridge and Slough environment and associated Tree Islands. In aquatic systems water flow is of fundamental importance in shaping the structure and function of the ecosystem. The organized patterns of parallel orientation of ridges, sloughs, and tear-drop shaped tree islands along historic flow paths attest to the importance of water movement in structuring this system. Our main objective was to operate and manage the LILA facility to provide a broad potential as a research platform for an integrated group of multidisciplinary, multi-agency scientists collaborating on multifunctional studies aimed primarily at determining the effects of CERP water management scenarios on the ecology of tree islands and ridge and slough habitats. We support Everglades water management, CERP, and the Long-Term Plan by defining hydrologic regimes that sustain healthy tree islands and ridge and slough ecosystems. Information gained through this project will help to reduce the uncertainty of predicting the tree island and ridge and slough ecosystem response to changes in hydrologic conditions. Additionally, we have developed the LILA site as a visual example of Everglades restoration programs in action.

Monitoring of Tree Island Conditions in the Southern Everglades: The Effects of Hurricanes and Hydrology on the Status and Population Dynamics of Sixteen Tropical Hardwood Hammock Tree Islands

In 2005 we began a multi-year intensive monitoring and assessment study of tropical hardwood hammocks within two distinct hydrologic regions in Everglades National Park, under funding from the CERP Monitoring and Assessment Program. In serving as an Annual Report for 2010, this document, reports in detail on the population dynamics and status of tropical hardwood hammocks in Shark Slough and adjacent marl prairies during a 4-year period between 2005 and 2009. 2005-09 was a period that saw a marked drawdown in marsh water levels (July 2006 - July 2008), and an active hurricane season in 2005 with two hurricanes, Hurricane Katrina and Wilma, making landfall over south Florida. Thus much of our focus here is on the responses of these forests to annual variation in marsh water level, and on recovery from disturbance. Most of the data are from 16 rectangular permanent plots of 225-625 m2 , with all trees mapped and tagged, and bi-annual sampling of the tree, sapling, shrub, and herb layer in a nested design. At each visit, canopy photos were taken and later analyzed for determination of interannual variation in leaf area index and canopy openness. Three of the plots were sampled at 2-month intervals, in order to gain a better idea of seasonal dynamics in litterfall and litter turnover. Changes in canopy structure were monitored through a vertical line intercept method.

Simulating everglades national park hydrology and phosphorus transport under existing and future scenarios using numerical modeling

The Florida Everglades has a long history of anthropogenic changes which have impacted the quantity and quality of water entering the system. Since the construction of Tamiami Trail in the 1920's, overland flow to the Florida Everglades has decreased significantly, impacting ecosystems from the wetlands to the estuary. The MIKE Marsh Model of Everglades National Park (M3ENP) is a numerical model, which simulates Everglades National Park (ENP) hydrology using MIKE SHE/MIKE 11software. This model has been developed to determine the parameters that effect Everglades hydrology and understand the impact of specific flow changes on the hydrology of the system. ^ As part of the effort to return flows to the historical levels, several changes to the existing water management infrastructure have been implemented or are in the design phase. Bridge construction scenarios were programed into the M3ENP model to review the effect of these structural changes and evaluate the potential impacts on water levels and hydroperiods in the receiving Northeast Shark Slough ecosystem. These scenarios have shown critical water level increases in an area which has been in decline due to low water levels. Results from this work may help guide future decisions for restoration designs. ^ Excess phosphorus entering Everglades National Park in South Florida may promote the growth of more phosphorus-opportunistic species and alter the food chain from the bottom up. Two phosphorus transport methods were developed into the M3ENP hydrodynamic model to determine the factors affecting phosphorus transport and the impact of bridge construction on water quality. Results showed that while phosphorus concentrations in surface waters decreased overall, some areas within ENP interior may experience an increase in phosphorus loading which the addition of bridges to Tamiami Trail. Finally, phosphorus data and modeled water level data was used to evaluate the spectral response of Everglades vegetation to increasing phosphorus availability using Landsat imagery.^

Potential rates of methanogenesis in peat and marl sawgrass wetlands in the Florida Everglades

Methanogenesis was studied in soils from two sawgrass wetlands of the Florida Everglades. Marl soils exhibited a significantly higher potential rate of methanogenesis than peat soils. In these wetlands, methanogenesis: (1) decreased rapidly with increasing soil depth, (2) increased at higher temperatures and lower Eh, (3) was stimulated by organic compounds (cellulose, glucose and acetate), and (4) remained unaffected by added ammonium. Lowering the Eh in the peat and marl soils with sulfide or sulfate stimulated methanogenesis. In January 1990, phosphate caused a significant increase in methanogenesis. The potential rates of methanogenesis decreased to undetectable levels when water levels dropped below the surface, and peaked one month after the start of the wet season. Methanogenesis appeared to be a relatively important process in carbon cycling in marl soils and these soils do not accumulate peat. Therefore, one possible explanation for peat accumulation in sawgrass wetlands may be their low rates of methanogenesis.

Modelagem estatística e atribuições dos eventos de precipitação extrema na Amazônia brasileira

Intense precipitation events (IPE) have been causing great social and economic losses in the affected regions. In the Amazon, these events can have serious impacts, primarily for populations living on the margins of its countless rivers, because when water levels are elevated, floods and/or inundations are generally observed. Thus, the main objective of this research is to study IPE, through Extreme Value Theory (EVT), to estimate return periods of these events and identify regions of the Brazilian Amazon where IPE have the largest values. The study was performed using daily rainfall data of the hydrometeorological network managed by the National Water Agency (Agência Nacional de Água) and the Meteorological Data Bank for Education and Research (Banco de Dados Meteorológicos para Ensino e Pesquisa) of the National Institute of Meteorology (Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia), covering the period 1983-2012. First, homogeneous rainfall regions were determined through cluster analysis, using the hierarchical agglomerative Ward method. Then synthetic series to represent the homogeneous regions were created. Next EVT, was applied in these series, through Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) and the Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD). The goodness of fit of these distributions were evaluated by the application of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, which compares the cumulated empirical distributions with the theoretical ones. Finally, the composition technique was used to characterize the prevailing atmospheric patterns for the occurrence of IPE. The results suggest that the Brazilian Amazon has six pluvial homogeneous regions. It is expected more severe IPE to occur in the south and in the Amazon coast. More intense rainfall events are expected during the rainy or transitions seasons of each sub-region, with total daily precipitation of 146.1, 143.1 and 109.4 mm (GEV) and 201.6, 209.5 and 152.4 mm (GPD), at least once year, in the south, in the coast and in the northwest of the Brazilian Amazon, respectively. For the south Amazonia, the composition analysis revealed that IPE are associated with the configuration and formation of the South Atlantic Convergence Zone. Along the coast, intense precipitation events are associated with mesoscale systems, such Squall Lines. In Northwest Amazonia IPE are apparently associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone and/or local convection.

Lâminas de água salina e doses de adubação orgânica na produção de palma Miúda adensada no semiárido

Cactus pear is an important forage for livestock in semi-arid region of Brazil, due to its adaptation to climate conditions in this region, high productivity and nutritional value. The yield of this cactus has positively responded to techniques such as planting density, fertilization and cutting managements, however, in Rio Grande do Norte State, only certain areas have favorable climate conditions to the development of this crop. Drip irrigation, with a small amount of water, has proven to be an alternative to the viability of cactus pear cultivation in these areas. The research aimed to evaluate the effects of different levels of saline water and manure organic fertilization on the morphological characteristics and production of fresh and dry matter of the prickly-pear cactus cv. Miúda (Nopalea cochenillifera Salm Dick) in a dense planting system. The experiment was conducted at the Experimental Station of Terras Secas (EMPARN), Pedro Avelino, latitude 5°31'21" South and longitude 36°23'14" West. The soil was classified as Typical Cambisol Haplicum Carbonate and the water used in irrigation, C4S1T3 (5,25 dS.m-1), with planting spacing of 2.0 x 0.25 m (20,000 plants ha-1). A completely randomized design in a split plot was used, where water levels (0, 7.5, 15.0 and 30.0 mm month-1) with 10 days intervals, were the main plots and organic fertilization (0 , 25 and 50 Mg ha-1 yr-1) the subplots, with four replicates. The measured morphological characteristics were number of cladodes, height and volume of the plant; length, width, perimeter, thickness, area and cladodes area index, fresh and dry matter production, dry matter content, water use efficiency (WUE) and damage promoted by cochineal pest (Diaspis echinocacti) and soft rot (Erwinia carotovora). There was no influence (P>0.05) of organic fertilization on most variables, particularly in relation to the production of fresh and dry matter. The water levels had a significant influence (P<0.05) on most variables, promoting higher height and volume of the plants, larger and thicker cladodes, and increase on fresh and dry matter production (13.55 Mg DM ha-1 yr-1). The absence of irrigation caused a significant expansion in plant damage caused by the cochineal pest and when irrigated with different water levels there was an increase in damage and stand loss, caused by soft rot, been more intense at the higher water level.

Desempenho de uma lagoa de infiltração na absorção de cheias e na recarga de aquífero

A type of macro drainage solution widely used in urban areas with predomi-nance of closed catchments (basins without outlet) is the implementation of detention and infiltration reservoirs (DIR). This type of solution has the main function of storing surface runoff and to promote soil infiltration and, consequently, aquifer recharge. The practice is to avoid floods in the drainage basin low-lying areas. The catchment waterproofing reduces the distributed groundwater recharge in urban areas, as is the case of Natal city, RN. However, the advantage of DIR is to concentrate the runoff and to promote aquifer recharge to an amount that can surpass the distributed natu-ral recharge. In this paper, we proposed studying a small urban drainage catchment, named Experimental Mirassol Watershed (EMW) in Natal, RN, whose outlet is a DIR. The rainfall-runoff transformation processes, water accumulation in DIR and the pro-cess of infiltration and percolation in the soil profile until the free aquifer were mod-eled and, from rainfall event observations, water levels in DIR and free aquifer water level measurements, and also, parameter values determination, it is was enabled to calibrate and modeling these combined processes. The mathematical modeling was carried out from two numerical models. We used the rainfall-runoff model developed by RIGHETTO (2014), and besides, we developed a one-dimensional model to simu-late the soil infiltration, percolation, redistribution soil water and groundwater in a combined system to the reservoir water balance. Continuous simulation was run over a period of eighteen months in time intervals of one minute. The drainage basin was discretized in blocks units as well as street reaches and the soil profile in vertical cells of 2 cm deep to a total depth of 30 m. The generated hydrographs were transformed into inlet volumes to the DIR and then, it was carried out water balance in these time intervals, considering infiltration and percolation of water in the soil profile. As a re-sult, we get to evaluate the storage water process in DIR as well as the infiltration of water, redistribution into the soil and the groundwater aquifer recharge, in continuous temporal simulation. We found that the DIR has good performance to storage excess water drainage and to contribute to the local aquifer recharge process (Aquifer Dunas / Barreiras).