Stochastic lattice model describing a vector-borne disease

We employ the approach of stochastic dynamics to describe the dissemination of vector-borne diseases such as dengue, and we focus our attention on the characterization of the threshold of the epidemic. The coexistence space comprises two representative spatial structures for both human and mosquito populations. The human population has its evolution described by a process that is similar to the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) dynamics. The population of mosquitoes follows a dynamic of the type of the Susceptible Infected-Susceptible (SIS) model. The coexistence space is a bipartite lattice constituted by two structures representing the human and mosquito populations. We develop a truncation scheme to solve the evolution equations for the densities and the two-site correlations from which we get the threshold of the disease and the reproductive ratio. We present a precise deØnition of the reproductive ratio which reveals the importance of the correlations developed in the early stage of the disease. According to our deØnition, the reproductive rate is directed related to the conditional probability of the occurrence of a susceptible human (mosquito) given the presence in the neighborhood of an infected mosquito (human). The threshold of the epidemic as well as the phase transition between the epidemic and the non-epidemic states are also obtained by performing Monte Carlo simulations. References: [1] David R. de Souza, T^ania Tom∂e, , Suani R. T. Pinho, Florisneide R. Barreto and M∂ario J. de Oliveira, Phys. Rev. E 87, 012709 (2013). [2] D. R. de Souza, T. Tom∂e and R. M. ZiÆ, J. Stat. Mech. P03006 (2011).

Intrastriatal injection of an adenoviral vector expressing glial-cell-line-derived neurotrophic factor prevents dopaminergic neuron degeneration and behavioral impairment in a rat model of Parkinson disease

Glial-cell-line-derived neurotrophic factor (GDNF) is a potent neurotrophic factor for adult nigral dopamine neurons in vivo. GDNF has both protective and restorative effects on the nigro-striatal dopaminergic (DA) system in animal models of Parkinson disease. Appropriate administration of this factor is essential for the success of its clinical application. Since it cannot cross the blood–brain barrier, a gene transfer method may be appropriate for delivery of the trophic factor to DA cells. We have constructed a recombinant adenovirus (Ad) encoding GDNF and injected it into rat striatum to make use of its ability to infect neurons and to be retrogradely transported by DA neurons. Ad-GDNF was found to drive production of large amounts of GDNF, as quantified by ELISA. The GDNF produced after gene transfer was biologically active: it increased the survival and differentiation of DA neurons in vitro. To test the efficacy of the Ad-mediated GDNF gene transfer in vivo, we used a progressive lesion model of Parkinson disease. Rats received injections unilaterally into their striatum first of Ad and then 6 days later of 6-hydroxydopamine. We found that mesencephalic nigral dopamine neurons of animals treated with the Ad-GDNF were protected, whereas those of animals treated with the Ad-β-galactosidase were not. This protection was associated with a difference in motor function: amphetamine-induced turning was much lower in animals that received the Ad-GDNF than in the animals that received Ad-β-galactosidase. This finding may have implications for the development of a treatment for Parkinson disease based on the use of neurotrophic factors.

Forecasting auto ownership and mode choice for U.S. metropolitan areas. Volume II: model equations. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of University Research, Washington, D.C.

Model specification and forecasting foreign exchange rates with vector autoregressions

This study examines the forecasting accuracy of alternative vector autoregressive models each in a seven-variable system that comprises in turn of daily, weekly and monthly foreign exchange (FX) spot rates. The vector autoregressions (VARs) are in non-stationary, stationary and error-correction forms and are estimated using OLS. The imposition of Bayesian priors in the OLS estimations also allowed us to obtain another set of results. We find that there is some tendency for the Bayesian estimation method to generate superior forecast measures relatively to the OLS method. This result holds whether or not the data sets contain outliers. Also, the best forecasts under the non-stationary specification outperformed those of the stationary and error-correction specifications, particularly at long forecast horizons, while the best forecasts under the stationary and error-correction specifications are generally similar. The findings for the OLS forecasts are consistent with recent simulation results. The predictive ability of the VARs is very weak.

Application of support vector machines on the basis of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model

In our study we rely on a data mining procedure known as support vector machine (SVM) on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model. The models constructed are then contrasted with the results of earlier bankruptcy models with the use of classification accuracy and the area under the ROC curve. In using the SVM technique, in addition to conventional kernel functions, we also examine the possibilities of applying the ANOVA kernel function and take a detailed look at data preparation tasks recommended in using the SVM method (handling of outliers). The results of the models assembled suggest that a significant improvement of classification accuracy can be achieved on the database of the first Hungarian bankruptcy model when using the SVM method as opposed to neural networks.

Vector analysis of porosity evidences bone loss at the epiphysis in the BTX rat model of disuse osteoporosis

International audience

SRAE: Sustainable Regressive Auto Encoder

Al giorno d’oggi viviamo in una realtà dove lo sviluppo economico, l’innovazione tecnologica, la qualità della vita e l’impatto ambientale sono i protagonisti assoluti. Tutti, persino gli Stati del mondo, si trovano a fare i conti con varie problematiche riguardanti i quattro aspetti sopracitati e qui possiamo dire che la sostenibilità ne è il punto chiave e che al momento non sembra esistere ancora una metrica riconosciuta e approvata per consigliare, a chi di interesse, come modificare certi aspetti per crescere in modo sostenibile. Le Nazioni Unite hanno deciso, di comune accordo, di stilare una lista di obiettivi da raggiungere entro il 2030 dove è possibile trovare argomenti in linea con quanto descritto finora. Questa raccolta è principalmente divisa in aspetti economici, sociali e ambientali che sono le stesse categorie di dati impiegate per il calcolo del Sustainable Development Index. In questo elaborato ci si propone di progettare e sviluppare una rete neurale predittiva da affiancare a un sistema di feedback per realizzare un prodotto che sia abile di: descrivere il contesto di partenza tramite l’SDI e/o consigliare comportamenti per migliorare la situazione in modo sostenibile.

Development And Characterization Of A Cationic Lipid Nanocarrier As Non-viral Vector For Gene Therapy.

The aim of the present work was to produce a cationic solid lipid nanoparticle (SLN) as non-viral vector for protein delivery. Cationic SLN were produced by double emulsion method, composed of softisan(®) 100, cetyltrimethylammonium bromide (CTAB), Tween(®) 80, Span(®) 80, glycerol and lipoid(®) S75 loading insulin as model protein. The formulation was characterized in terms of mean hydrodynamic diameter (z-ave), polydispersity index (PI), zeta potential (ZP), stability during storage time, stability after lyophilization, effect of toxicity and transfection ability in HeLa cells, in vitro release profile and morphology. SLN were stable for 30days and showed minimal changes in their physicochemical properties after lyophilization. The particles exhibited a relatively slow release, spherical morphology and were able to transfect HeLa cells, but toxicity remained an obstacle. Results suggest that SLN are nevertheless promising for delivery of proteins or nucleic acids for gene therapy.

Modelo para análise do ataque no futebol = : A model to analyze soccer offensive phase

Universidade Estadual de Campinas . Faculdade de Educação Física

Prevalência de diagnóstico auto-referido de osteoporose, Brasil, 2006

OBJETIVO: Estimar a prevalência de osteoporose auto-referida (com diagnóstico médico prévio) e de fatores de risco e proteção associados. MÉTODOS: Estudo transversal baseado em dados do sistema de Vigilância de Fatores de Risco e Proteção para Doenças Crônicas por Inquérito Telefônico (VIGITEL). Foram entrevistados 54.369 indivíduos com idade >18 anos residentes em domicílios servidos por pelo menos uma linha telefônica fixa nas capitais brasileiras e Distrito Federal em 2006. Estimativas de osteoporose segundo fatores socioeconômicos, comportamentais e índice de massa corporal foram estratificadas por sexo. Foram calculados riscos de ocorrência de osteoporose para cada variável individualmente, e em modelo multivariado, considerando-se odds ratio como proxy da razão de prevalência. RESULTADOS: A prevalência de osteoporose referida foi de 4,4%, predominantemente entre mulheres (7,0%), com idade >45 anos, estado civil não solteiro e ex-fumante. Entre homens, ter mais de 65 anos, ser casado ou viúvo e sedentário associaram-se positivamente ao desfecho. CONCLUSÕES: Dentre os fatores associados à osteoporose, destacam-se aspectos modificáveis relacionados com a prevenção da doença, como a atividade física e tabagismo.

Dispersive analysis of KL mu 3 and KLe3 scalar and vector form factors using KTeV data

Using the published KTeV samples of K(L) -> pi(+/-)e(-/+)nu and K(L) -> pi(+/-)mu(-/+)nu decays, we perform a reanalysis of the scalar and vector form factors based on the dispersive parametrization. We obtain phase-space integrals I(K)(e) = 0.15446 +/- 0.00025 and I(K)(mu) = 0.10219 +/- 0.00025. For the scalar form factor parametrization, the only free parameter is the normalized form factor value at the Callan-Treiman point (C); our best-fit results in InC = 0.1915 +/- 0.0122. We also study the sensitivity of C to different parametrizations of the vector form factor. The results for the phase-space integrals and C are then used to make tests of the standard model. Finally, we compare our results with lattice QCD calculations of F(K)/F(pi) and f(+)(0).

Quantum system under the actions of two counteracting baths: A model for the attenuation-amplification interplay

We analyze the dynamical behavior of a quantum system under the actions of two counteracting baths: the inevitable energy draining reservoir and, in opposition, exciting the system, an engineered Glauber's amplifier. We follow the system dynamics towards equilibrium to map its distinctive behavior arising from the interplay of attenuation and amplification. Such a mapping, with the corresponding parameter regimes, is achieved by calculating the evolution of both the excitation and the Glauber-Sudarshan P function. Techniques to compute the decoherence and the fidelity of quantum states under the action of both counteracting baths, based on the Wigner function rather than the density matrix, are also presented. They enable us to analyze the similarity of the evolved state vector of the system with respect to the original one, for all regimes of parameters. Applications of this attenuation-amplification interplay are discussed.

Chronostratigraphy and radiocarbon age inversion in the Holocene regressive barrier of Parana, southern Brazil

Twenty-two (14)C datings were performed at the central sector of the Parana coast to define Holocene regressive barrier evolution. The barrier Pleistocene substratum was ascribed an age between 40400 and 30000 yr BP, but it can also represent the penultimate sea level highstand during marine isotope stage 5e. The Holocene barrier samples provided ages between 8542-8279 and 2987-2751 cal yr BP, and showed at least six age inversions that were related to age differences between in situ or low-distance transported shells or trunk fragments, and high-distance transported vegetal debris, wood fragments and organic matter samples. The regressive Holocene barrier age was 4402-4135 cal yr BP near the base, and 2987-2751 cal yr BP near the top. Most of the vegetal remains were transported by ebb tidal currents from the estuaries to the inner shelf below wave base level during the mid-Holocene highstand; they were transported onshore by storm waves and littoral currents during the sea level lowering after the sea level maximum, and were deposited mainly as middle shoreface swaley cross-stratification facies. (C) 2008 Published by Elsevier B.V.