Comparison between detailed digital and conventional soil maps of an area with complex geology

Since different pedologists will draw different soil maps of a same area, it is important to compare the differences between mapping by specialists and mapping techniques, as for example currently intensively discussed Digital Soil Mapping. Four detailed soil maps (scale 1:10.000) of a 182-ha sugarcane farm in the county of Rafard, São Paulo State, Brazil, were compared. The area has a large variation of soil formation factors. The maps were drawn independently by four soil scientists and compared with a fifth map obtained by a digital soil mapping technique. All pedologists were given the same set of information. As many field expeditions and soil pits as required by each surveyor were provided to define the mapping units (MUs). For the Digital Soil Map (DSM), spectral data were extracted from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) imagery as well as six terrain attributes from the topographic map of the area. These data were summarized by principal component analysis to generate the map designs of groups through Fuzzy K-means clustering. Field observations were made to identify the soils in the MUs and classify them according to the Brazilian Soil Classification System (BSCS). To compare the conventional and digital (DSM) soil maps, they were crossed pairwise to generate confusion matrices that were mapped. The categorical analysis at each classification level of the BSCS showed that the agreement between the maps decreased towards the lower levels of classification and the great influence of the surveyor on both the mapping and definition of MUs in the soil map. The average correspondence between the conventional and DSM maps was similar. Therefore, the method used to obtain the DSM yielded similar results to those obtained by the conventional technique, while providing additional information about the landscape of each soil, useful for applications in future surveys of similar areas.

Impacts of land leveling on lowland soil physical properties

The practice of land leveling alters the soil surface to create a uniform slope to improve land conditions for the application of all agricultural practices. The aims of this study were to evaluate the impacts of land leveling through the magnitudes, variances and spatial distributions of selected soil physical properties of a lowland area in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil; the relationships between the magnitude of cuts and/or fills and soil physical properties after the leveling process; and evaluation of the effect of leveling on the spatial distribution of the top of the B horizon in relation to the soil surface. In the 0-0.20 m layer, a 100-point geo-referenced grid covering two taxonomic soil classes was used in assessment of the following soil properties: soil particle density (Pd) and bulk density (Bd); total porosity (Tp), macroporosity (Macro) and microporosity (Micro); available water capacity (AWC); sand, silt, clay, and dispersed clay in water (Disp clay) contents; electrical conductivity (EC); and weighted average diameter of aggregates (WAD). Soil depth to the top of the B horizon was also measured before leveling. The overall effect of leveling on selected soil physical properties was evaluated by paired "t" tests. The effect on the variability of each property was evaluated through the homogeneity of variance test. The thematic maps constructed by kriging or by the inverse of the square of the distances were visually analyzed to evaluate the effect of leveling on the spatial distribution of the properties and of the top of the B horizon in relation to the soil surface. Linear regression models were fitted with the aim of evaluating the relationship between soil properties and the magnitude of cuts and fills. Leveling altered the mean value of several soil properties and the agronomic effect was negative. The mean values of Bd and Disp clay increased and Tp, Macro and Micro, WAD, AWC and EC decreased. Spatial distributions of all soil physical properties changed as a result of leveling and its effect on all soil physical properties occurred in the whole area and not specifically in the cutting or filling areas. In future designs of leveling, we recommend overlaying a cut/fill map on the map of soil depth to the top of the B horizon in order to minimize areas with shallow surface soil after leveling.

Strange nonchaotic attractors in Harper maps

We study the existence of strange nonchaotic attractors (SNA) in the family of Harper maps. We prove that for a set of parameters of positive measure, the map possesses a SNA. However, the set is nowhere dense. By changing the parameter arbitrarily small amounts, the attractor is a smooth curve and not a SNA.

Periodic points of holomorphic maps via Lefschetz numbers

In this paper we study the set of periods of holomorphic maps on compact manifolds, using the periodic Lefschetz numbers introduced by Dold and Llibre, which can be computed from the homology class of the map. We show that these numbers contain information about the existence of periodic points of a given period; and, if we assume the map to be transversal, then they give us the exact number of such periodic orbits. We apply this result to the complex projective space of dimension n and to some special type of Hopf surfaces, partially characterizing their set of periods. In the first case we also show that any holomorphic map of CP(n) of degree greater than one has infinitely many distinct periodic orbits, hence generalizing a theorem of Fornaess and Sibony. We then characterize the set of periods of a holomorphic map on the Riemann sphere, hence giving an alternative proof of Baker's theorem.

The mean-variance model from the inverse of the variance-covariance matrix

En este artículo, a partir de la inversa de la matriz de varianzas y covarianzas se obtiene el modelo Esperanza-Varianza de Markowitz siguiendo un camino más corto y matemáticamente riguroso. También se obtiene la ecuación de equilibrio del CAPM de Sharpe.

Improved segmentation of deep brain grey matter structures using magnetization transfer (MT) parameter maps.

Basal ganglia and brain stem nuclei are involved in the pathophysiology of various neurological and neuropsychiatric disorders. Currently available structural T1-weighted (T1w) magnetic resonance images do not provide sufficient contrast for reliable automated segmentation of various subcortical grey matter structures. We use a novel, semi-quantitative magnetization transfer (MT) imaging protocol that overcomes limitations in T1w images, which are mainly due to their sensitivity to the high iron content in subcortical grey matter. We demonstrate improved automated segmentation of putamen, pallidum, pulvinar and substantia nigra using MT images. A comparison with segmentation of high-quality T1w images was performed in 49 healthy subjects. Our results show that MT maps are highly suitable for automated segmentation, and so for multi-subject morphometric studies with a focus on subcortical structures.

Geomorphological method in the elaboration of hazard maps for flash-floods in the municipality of Jucuarán (El Salvador)

This work deals with the elaboration of flood hazard maps. These maps reflect the areas prone to floods based on the effects of Hurricane Mitch in the Municipality of Jucuarán of El Salvador. Stream channels located in the coastal range in the SE of El Salvador flow into the Pacific Ocean and generate alluvial fans. Communities often inhabit these fans can be affected by floods. The geomorphology of these stream basins is associated with small areas, steep slopes, well developed regolite and extensive deforestation. These features play a key role in the generation of flash-floods. This zone lacks comprehensive rainfall data and gauging stations. The most detailed topographic maps are on a scale of 1:25 000. Given that the scale was not sufficiently detailed, we used aerial photographs enlarged to the scale of 1:8000. The effects of Hurricane Mitch mapped on these photographs were regarded as the reference event. Flood maps have a dual purpose (1) community emergency plans, (2) regional land use planning carried out by local authorities. The geomorphological method is based on mapping the geomorphological evidence (alluvial fans, preferential stream channels, erosion and sedimentation, man-made terraces). Following the interpretation of the photographs this information was validated on the field and complemented by eyewitness reports such as the height of water and flow typology. In addition, community workshops were organized to obtain information about the evolution and the impact of the phenomena. The superimposition of this information enables us to obtain a comprehensive geomorphological map. Another aim of the study was the calculation of the peak discharge using the Manning and the paleohydraulic methods and estimates based on geomorphologic criterion. The results were compared with those obtained using the rational method. Significant differences in the order of magnitude of the calculated discharges were noted. The rational method underestimated the results owing to short and discontinuous periods of rainfall data with the result that probabilistic equations cannot be applied. The Manning method yields a wide range of results because of its dependence on the roughness coefficient. The paleohydraulic method yielded higher values than the rational and Manning methods. However, it should be pointed out that it is possible that bigger boulders could have been moved had they existed. These discharge values are lower than those obtained by the geomorphological estimates, i.e. much closer to reality. The flood hazard maps were derived from the comprehensive geomorphological map. Three categories of hazard were established (very high, high and moderate) using flood energy, water height and velocity flow deduced from geomorphological and eyewitness reports.

Rockfall travel distance analysis by using empirical models (Solà d'Andorra la Vella, Central Pyrenees)

The prediction of rockfall travel distance below a rock cliff is an indispensable activity in rockfall susceptibility, hazard and risk assessment. Although the size of the detached rock mass may differ considerably at each specific rock cliff, small rockfall (<100 m3) is the most frequent process. Empirical models may provide us with suitable information for predicting the travel distance of small rockfalls over an extensive area at a medium scale (1:100 000¿1:25 000). "Solà d'Andorra la Vella" is a rocky slope located close to the town of Andorra la Vella, where the government has been documenting rockfalls since 1999. This documentation consists in mapping the release point and the individual fallen blocks immediately after the event. The documentation of historical rockfalls by morphological analysis, eye-witness accounts and historical images serve to increase available information. In total, data from twenty small rockfalls have been gathered which reveal an amount of a hundred individual fallen rock blocks. The data acquired has been used to check the reliability of the main empirical models widely adopted (reach and shadow angle models) and to analyse the influence of parameters which affecting the travel distance (rockfall size, height of fall along the rock cliff and volume of the individual fallen rock block). For predicting travel distances in maps with medium scales, a method has been proposed based on the "reach probability" concept. The accuracy of results has been tested from the line entailing the farthest fallen boulders which represents the maximum travel distance of past rockfalls. The paper concludes with a discussion of the application of both empirical models to other study areas.

The evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance.

Natural selection favors alleles that increase the number of offspring produced by their carriers. But in a world that is inherently uncertain within generations, selection also favors alleles that reduce the variance in the number of offspring produced. If previous studies have established this principle, they have largely ignored fundamental aspects of sexual reproduction and therefore how selection on sex-specific reproductive variance operates. To study the evolution and consequences of sex-specific reproductive variance, we present a population-genetic model of phenotypic evolution in a dioecious population that incorporates previously neglected components of reproductive variance. First, we derive the probability of fixation for mutations that affect male and/or female reproductive phenotypes under sex-specific selection. We find that even in the simplest scenarios, the direction of selection is altered when reproductive variance is taken into account. In particular, previously unaccounted for covariances between the reproductive outputs of different individuals are expected to play a significant role in determining the direction of selection. Then, the probability of fixation is used to develop a stochastic model of joint male and female phenotypic evolution. We find that sex-specific reproductive variance can be responsible for changes in the course of long-term evolution. Finally, the model is applied to an example of parental-care evolution. Overall, our model allows for the evolutionary analysis of social traits in finite and dioecious populations, where interactions can occur within and between sexes under a realistic scenario of reproduction.

Estimating Design-Flood Discharges for Streams in Iowa Using Drainage-Basin and Channel-Geometry Characteristics, HR-322, 1993

Drainage-basin and channel-geometry multiple-regression equations are presented for estimating design-flood discharges having recurrence intervals of 2, 5, 10, 25, 50, and 100 years at stream sites on rural, unregulated streams in Iowa. Design-flood discharge estimates determined by Pearson Type-III analyses using data collected through the 1990 water year are reported for the 188 streamflow-gaging stations used in either the drainage-basin or channel-geometry regression analyses. Ordinary least-squares multiple-regression techniques were used to identify selected drainage-basin and channel-geometry regions. Weighted least-squares multiple-regression techniques, which account for differences in the variance of flows at different gaging stations and for variable lengths in station records, were used to estimate the regression parameters. Statewide drainage-basin equations were developed from analyses of 164 streamflow-gaging stations. Drainage-basin characteristics were quantified using a geographic-information-system (GIS) procedure to process topographic maps and digital cartographic data. The significant characteristics identified for the drainage-basin equations included contributing drainage area, relative relief, drainage frequency, and 2-year, 24-hour precipitation intensity. The average standard errors of prediction for the drainage-basin equations ranged from 38.6% to 50.2%. The GIS procedure expanded the capability to quantitatively relate drainage-basin characteristics to the magnitude and frequency of floods for stream sites in Iowa and provides a flood-estimation method that is independent of hydrologic regionalization. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations were developed from analyses of 157 streamflow-gaging stations. Channel-geometry characteristics were measured on site and on topographic maps. Statewide and regional channel-geometry regression equations that are dependent on whether a stream has been channelized were developed on the basis of bankfull and active-channel characteristics. The significant channel-geometry characteristics identified for the statewide and regional regression equations included bankfull width and bankfull depth for natural channels unaffected by channelization, and active-channel width for stabilized channels affected by channelization. The average standard errors of prediction ranged from 41.0% to 68.4% for the statewide channel-geometry equations and from 30.3% to 70.0% for the regional channel-geometry equations. Procedures provided for applying the drainage-basin and channel-geometry regression equations depend on whether the design-flood discharge estimate is for a site on an ungaged stream, an ungaged site on a gaged stream, or a gaged site. When both a drainage-basin and a channel-geometry regression-equation estimate are available for a stream site, a procedure is presented for determining a weighted average of the two flood estimates.

Natural selection on fecundity variance in subdivided populations: kin selection meets bet hedging.

In a series of seminal articles in 1974, 1975, and 1977, J. H. Gillespie challenged the notion that the "fittest" individuals are those that produce on average the highest number of offspring. He showed that in small populations, the variance in fecundity can determine fitness as much as mean fecundity. One likely reason why Gillespie's concept of within-generation bet hedging has been largely ignored is the general consensus that natural populations are of large size. As a consequence, essentially no work has investigated the role of the fecundity variance on the evolutionary stable state of life-history strategies. While typically large, natural populations also tend to be subdivided in local demes connected by migration. Here, we integrate Gillespie's measure of selection for within-generation bet hedging into the inclusive fitness and game theoretic measure of selection for structured populations. The resulting framework demonstrates that selection against high variance in offspring number is a potent force in large, but structured populations. More generally, the results highlight that variance in offspring number will directly affect various life-history strategies, especially those involving kin interaction. The selective pressures on three key traits are directly investigated here, namely within-generation bet hedging, helping behaviors, and the evolutionary stable dispersal rate. The evolutionary dynamics of all three traits are markedly affected by variance in offspring number, although to a different extent and under different demographic conditions.

Analysis of experiments in square lattice with emphasis on variance components. i. Individual analysis

This paper focused on four alternatives of analysis of experiments in square lattice as far as the estimation of variance components and some genetic parameters are concerned: 1) intra-block analysis with adjusted treatment and blocks within unadjusted repetitions; 2) lattice analysis as complete randomized blocks; 3) intrablock analysis with unadjusted treatment and blocks within adjusted repetitions; 4) lattice analysis as complete randomized blocks, by utilizing the adjusted means of treatments, obtained from the analysis with recovery of interblock information, having as mean square of the error the mean effective variance of this same analysis with recovery of inter-block information. For the four alternatives of analysis, the estimators and estimates were obtained for the variance components and heritability coefficients. The classification of material was also studied. The present study suggests that for each experiment and depending of the objectives of the analysis, one should observe which alternative of analysis is preferable, mainly in cases where a negative estimate is obtained for the variance component due to effects of blocks within adjusted repetitions.

Predictive analysis and mapping of indoor radon concentrations in Switzerland

It is estimated that around 230 people die each year due to radon (222Rn) exposure in Switzerland. 222Rn occurs mainly in closed environments like buildings and originates primarily from the subjacent ground. Therefore it depends strongly on geology and shows substantial regional variations. Correct identification of these regional variations would lead to substantial reduction of 222Rn exposure of the population based on appropriate construction of new and mitigation of already existing buildings. Prediction of indoor 222Rn concentrations (IRC) and identification of 222Rn prone areas is however difficult since IRC depend on a variety of different variables like building characteristics, meteorology, geology and anthropogenic factors. The present work aims at the development of predictive models and the understanding of IRC in Switzerland, taking into account a maximum of information in order to minimize the prediction uncertainty. The predictive maps will be used as a decision-support tool for 222Rn risk management. The construction of these models is based on different data-driven statistical methods, in combination with geographical information systems (GIS). In a first phase we performed univariate analysis of IRC for different variables, namely the detector type, building category, foundation, year of construction, the average outdoor temperature during measurement, altitude and lithology. All variables showed significant associations to IRC. Buildings constructed after 1900 showed significantly lower IRC compared to earlier constructions. We observed a further drop of IRC after 1970. In addition to that, we found an association of IRC with altitude. With regard to lithology, we observed the lowest IRC in sedimentary rocks (excluding carbonates) and sediments and the highest IRC in the Jura carbonates and igneous rock. The IRC data was systematically analyzed for potential bias due to spatially unbalanced sampling of measurements. In order to facilitate the modeling and the interpretation of the influence of geology on IRC, we developed an algorithm based on k-medoids clustering which permits to define coherent geological classes in terms of IRC. We performed a soil gas 222Rn concentration (SRC) measurement campaign in order to determine the predictive power of SRC with respect to IRC. We found that the use of SRC is limited for IRC prediction. The second part of the project was dedicated to predictive mapping of IRC using models which take into account the multidimensionality of the process of 222Rn entry into buildings. We used kernel regression and ensemble regression tree for this purpose. We could explain up to 33% of the variance of the log transformed IRC all over Switzerland. This is a good performance compared to former attempts of IRC modeling in Switzerland. As predictor variables we considered geographical coordinates, altitude, outdoor temperature, building type, foundation, year of construction and detector type. Ensemble regression trees like random forests allow to determine the role of each IRC predictor in a multidimensional setting. We found spatial information like geology, altitude and coordinates to have stronger influences on IRC than building related variables like foundation type, building type and year of construction. Based on kernel estimation we developed an approach to determine the local probability of IRC to exceed 300 Bq/m3. In addition to that we developed a confidence index in order to provide an estimate of uncertainty of the map. All methods allow an easy creation of tailor-made maps for different building characteristics. Our work is an essential step towards a 222Rn risk assessment which accounts at the same time for different architectural situations as well as geological and geographical conditions. For the communication of 222Rn hazard to the population we recommend to make use of the probability map based on kernel estimation. The communication of 222Rn hazard could for example be implemented via a web interface where the users specify the characteristics and coordinates of their home in order to obtain the probability to be above a given IRC with a corresponding index of confidence. Taking into account the health effects of 222Rn, our results have the potential to substantially improve the estimation of the effective dose from 222Rn delivered to the Swiss population.