Desenvolvimento e aplicação clínica de haste intramedular bloqueada angulada no tratamento de fraturas tibiais em cães

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Máquina de somar, conjuntos de Julia e fractais de Rauzy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Avaliação operacional do Programa de Controle da Hanseníase nas unidades de saúde do Distrito Dagua no município de Belém-PA

O presente estudo descreve a avaliação operacional das açoes de controle do programa da hanseniase nas unidades de saúde do distrito administrtivo do Guamá- dagua do municipio de Belém no Estado do Pará. Trata de um estudo quantitativo ecológico do tipo transversal. Realizada no periodo de 2005 a 2010 em 11 unidades de saúde sendo 05 Centros de saude e 06 casas familias . Os dados utilizados foram secundários obtidos através do Sistema de informação de agravos de notificação- SINAN relacionado a 05 indicadores operacionais utilizados pelo Ministerio da Saúde para avaliação do Programa de Controle da Hanseniase e os dados primários coletados por meio de entrevistas com os profissionais de saúde . Os resultados encontrados no distrito foram: coeficiente de detecção no periodo de 22,6 a 39,7 casos de hanseníase por 100.000 habitantes muito alto de acordo com os parametros do MS.Na avaliação de incapacidade no momento do diagnóstico o resultado encontrado foi regular (81,3%) levando-se em consideração o total dos casos notificados.Evidenciou-se uma precariedade na avaliação do grau de incapacidade dos casos curados em todo o período de estudo. Quanto as altas curadas o percentual encontrado foi acima de 90% na maioria das unidades.Observou-se que o abandono de tratamento nas unidades do Distrito Dagua se manteve estável, apresentando percentuais abaixo de 10% em (6) seis das onze unidades.Identificou-se que as unidades do bairro da Terra Firme contribuíram para elevação dos percentuais de alta por abandono.Na entrevista realizada com profissionais sobre as capacitações recebidas, a associação entre as variáveis, aptidão para diagnosticar e tratar hanseníase e complicações e ou reações, com as variáveis como idade, categoria profissional e tempo de serviço. identificou-se que a variável tempo de serviço foi considerada estatisticamente significante com um p= 0,0206. Conclui-se que a qualidade do serviço nas unidades do Distrito dagua esta aquém do preconizado em função do real papel e cobertura das equipes de saude da familia e que o controle da hanseníase como problema de saúde pública em Belém requer medidas adicionais de vigilância epidemiológica, além daquelas que atualmente vêm sendo utilizadas.

Modelo epidemiológico discreto para a transmissão de Acinetobacter baumannii em UTIs brasileiras

Pós-graduação em Biometria - IBB

SPECTRUM OF STOCHASTIC ADDING MACHINES AND FIBERED JULIA SETS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Critical adsorption of polyelectrolytes onto charged Janus nanospheres

Based on extensive Monte Carlo simulations and analytical considerations we study the electrostatically driven adsorption of flexible polyelectrolyte chains onto charged Janus nanospheres. These net-neutral colloids are composed of two equally but oppositely charged hemispheres. The critical binding conditions for polyelectrolyte chains are analysed as function of the radius of the Janus particle and its surface charge density, as well as the salt concentration in the ambient solution. Specifically for the adsorption of finite-length polyelectrolyte chains onto Janus nanoparticles, we demonstrate that the critical adsorption conditions drastically differ when the size of the Janus particle or the screening length of the electrolyte are varied. We compare the scaling laws obtained for the adsorption-desorption threshold to the known results for uniformly charged spherical particles, observing significant disparities. We also contrast the changes to the polyelectrolyte chain conformations close to the surface of the Janus nanoparticles as compared to those for simple spherical particles. Finally, we discuss experimentally relevant physicochemical systems for which our simulations results may become important. In particular, we observe similar trends with polyelectrolyte complexation with oppositely but heterogeneously charged proteins.

STOCHASTIC ADDING MACHINE AND 2-DIMENSIONAL JULIA SETS

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Feature extraction in pressure signals for leak detection in water networks

Techniques based on signal analysis for leak detection in water supply systems typically use long pressure and/or flow data series of variable length. This paper presents the feature extraction from pressure signals and their application to the identification of changes related to the onset of a leak. Example signals were acquired from an experimental laboratory circuit, and features were extracted from temporal domain and from transformed signals. Statistical analysis of features values and a classification method were applied. It was verified the feasibility of using feature vectors for distinguish data acquired in the absence or presence of a leak.

Estimação espaço-temporal das perdas não técnicas no sistema de distribuição de energia elétrica

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Plasma cortisol in first episode drug-naive mania: Differential levels in euphoric versus irritable mood

Background: Dysregulation of HPA axis has been widely described in subjects with bipolar disorder (BD), including changes in cortisol levels during mood episodes and euthymia. However, most of the studies were done with medicated BD patients with variable length of illness, which was shown to interfere on peripheral cortisol levels. Therefore, the present study aims to evaluate plasma cortisol levels in drug-naive BD subjects during the first manic episode, as well as investigate the relationship between plasma cortisol levels and manic symptomatology. Methods: Twenty-six drug-naive patients were enrolled meeting criteria for a first manic episode in bipolar I disorder. Severity of mania was assessed using the Young Mania Rating Scale (YMRS). The control group included 27 healthy subjects matched by age and gender. Cortisol was quantified using a direct radioimmunoassay. Results: Plasma cortisol levels were decreased during first manic episode compared to healthy controls. Higher cortisol levels were positively associated with the presence of irritability (dysphoria), while elated mania showed lower cortisol levels compared to controls. Limitation: Data including larger samples are lacking. Conclusion: Higher cortisol in dysphoric mania compared to predominantly elated/euphoric mania may indicate a clinical and neurobiological polymorphic phenomenon, potentially involving a higher biological sensitivity to stress in the presence of irritable mood. The present findings highlight the importance to add a dimensional approach to the traditional categorical diagnosis for future neurobiological studies in BD. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Essays on Bayesian Inference for Social Networks

This thesis presents Bayesian solutions to inference problems for three types of social network data structures: a single observation of a social network, repeated observations on the same social network, and repeated observations on a social network developing through time. A social network is conceived as being a structure consisting of actors and their social interaction with each other. A common conceptualisation of social networks is to let the actors be represented by nodes in a graph with edges between pairs of nodes that are relationally tied to each other according to some definition. Statistical analysis of social networks is to a large extent concerned with modelling of these relational ties, which lends itself to empirical evaluation. The first paper deals with a family of statistical models for social networks called exponential random graphs that takes various structural features of the network into account. In general, the likelihood functions of exponential random graphs are only known up to a constant of proportionality. A procedure for performing Bayesian inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods is presented. The algorithm consists of two basic steps, one in which an ordinary Metropolis-Hastings up-dating step is used, and another in which an importance sampling scheme is used to calculate the acceptance probability of the Metropolis-Hastings step. In paper number two a method for modelling reports given by actors (or other informants) on their social interaction with others is investigated in a Bayesian framework. The model contains two basic ingredients: the unknown network structure and functions that link this unknown network structure to the reports given by the actors. These functions take the form of probit link functions. An intrinsic problem is that the model is not identified, meaning that there are combinations of values on the unknown structure and the parameters in the probit link functions that are observationally equivalent. Instead of using restrictions for achieving identification, it is proposed that the different observationally equivalent combinations of parameters and unknown structure be investigated a posteriori. Estimation of parameters is carried out using Gibbs sampling with a switching devise that enables transitions between posterior modal regions. The main goal of the procedures is to provide tools for comparisons of different model specifications. Papers 3 and 4, propose Bayesian methods for longitudinal social networks. The premise of the models investigated is that overall change in social networks occurs as a consequence of sequences of incremental changes. Models for the evolution of social networks using continuos-time Markov chains are meant to capture these dynamics. Paper 3 presents an MCMC algorithm for exploring the posteriors of parameters for such Markov chains. More specifically, the unobserved evolution of the network in-between observations is explicitly modelled thereby avoiding the need to deal with explicit formulas for the transition probabilities. This enables likelihood based parameter inference in a wider class of network evolution models than has been available before. Paper 4 builds on the proposed inference procedure of Paper 3 and demonstrates how to perform model selection for a class of network evolution models.

Geometric and Combinatorial Aspects of NonEquilibrium Statistical Mechanics

Non-Equilibrium Statistical Mechanics is a broad subject. Grossly speaking, it deals with systems which have not yet relaxed to an equilibrium state, or else with systems which are in a steady non-equilibrium state, or with more general situations. They are characterized by external forcing and internal fluxes, resulting in a net production of entropy which quantifies dissipation and the extent by which, by the Second Law of Thermodynamics, time-reversal invariance is broken. In this thesis we discuss some of the mathematical structures involved with generic discrete-state-space non-equilibrium systems, that we depict with networks in all analogous to electrical networks. We define suitable observables and derive their linear regime relationships, we discuss a duality between external and internal observables that reverses the role of the system and of the environment, we show that network observables serve as constraints for a derivation of the minimum entropy production principle. We dwell on deep combinatorial aspects regarding linear response determinants, which are related to spanning tree polynomials in graph theory, and we give a geometrical interpretation of observables in terms of Wilson loops of a connection and gauge degrees of freedom. We specialize the formalism to continuous-time Markov chains, we give a physical interpretation for observables in terms of locally detailed balanced rates, we prove many variants of the fluctuation theorem, and show that a well-known expression for the entropy production due to Schnakenberg descends from considerations of gauge invariance, where the gauge symmetry is related to the freedom in the choice of a prior probability distribution. As an additional topic of geometrical flavor related to continuous-time Markov chains, we discuss the Fisher-Rao geometry of nonequilibrium decay modes, showing that the Fisher matrix contains information about many aspects of non-equilibrium behavior, including non-equilibrium phase transitions and superposition of modes. We establish a sort of statistical equivalence principle and discuss the behavior of the Fisher matrix under time-reversal. To conclude, we propose that geometry and combinatorics might greatly increase our understanding of nonequilibrium phenomena.

Investigation of the lithium ion mobility in cyclic model compounds and their ion conducting properties

Efficient energy storage and conversion is playing a key role in overcoming the present and future challenges in energy supply. Batteries provide portable, electrochemical storage of green energy sources and potentially allow for a reduction of the dependence on fossil fuels, which is of great importance with respect to the issue of global warming. In view of both, energy density and energy drain, rechargeable lithium ion batteries outperform other present accumulator systems. However, despite great efforts over the last decades, the ideal electrolyte in terms of key characteristics such as capacity, cycle life, and most important reliable safety, has not yet been identified. rnrnSteps ahead in lithium ion battery technology require a fundamental understanding of lithium ion transport, salt association, and ion solvation within the electrolyte. Indeed, well-defined model compounds allow for systematic studies of molecular ion transport. Thus, in the present work, based on the concept of ‘immobilizing’ ion solvents, three main series with a cyclotriphosphazene (CTP), hexaphenylbenzene (HBP), and tetramethylcyclotetrasiloxane (TMS) scaffold were prepared. Lithium ion solvents, among others ethylene carbonate (EC), which has proven to fulfill together with pro-pylene carbonate safety and market concerns in commercial lithium ion batteries, were attached to the different cores via alkyl spacers of variable length.rnrnAll model compounds were fully characterized, pure and thermally stable up to at least 235 °C, covering the requested broad range of glass transition temperatures from -78.1 °C up to +6.2 °C. While the CTP models tend to rearrange at elevated temperatures over time, which questions the general stability of alkoxide related (poly)phosphazenes, both, the HPB and CTP based models show no evidence of core stacking. In particular the CTP derivatives represent good solvents for various lithium salts, exhibiting no significant differences in the ionic conductivity σ_dc and thus indicating comparable salt dissociation and rather independent motion of cations and ions.rnrnIn general, temperature-dependent bulk ionic conductivities investigated via impedance spectroscopy follow a William-Landel-Ferry (WLF) type behavior. Modifications of the alkyl spacer length were shown to influence ionic conductivities only in combination to changes in glass transition temperatures. Though the glass transition temperatures of the blends are low, their conductivities are only in the range of typical polymer electrolytes. The highest σ_dc obtained at ambient temperatures was 6.0 x 10-6 S•cm-1, strongly suggesting a rather tight coordination of the lithium ions to the solvating 2-oxo-1,3-dioxolane moieties, supported by the increased σ_dc values for the oligo(ethylene oxide) based analogues.rnrnFurther insights into the mechanism of lithium ion dynamics were derived from 7Li and 13C Solid- State NMR investigations. While localized ion motion was probed by i.e. 7Li spin-lattice relaxation measurements with apparent activation energies E_a of 20 to 40 kJ/mol, long-range macroscopic transport was monitored by Pulsed-Field Gradient (PFG) NMR, providing an E_a of 61 kJ/mol. The latter is in good agreement with the values determined from bulk conductivity data, indicating the major contribution of ion transport was only detected by PFG NMR. However, the μm-diffusion is rather slow, emphasizing the strong lithium coordination to the carbonyl oxygens, which hampers sufficient ion conductivities and suggests exploring ‘softer’ solvating moieties in future electrolytes.rn

Wavelet estimation in diffusions with periodicity

Wir betrachten einen zeitlich inhomogenen Diffusionsprozess, der durch eine stochastische Differentialgleichung gegeben wird, deren Driftterm ein deterministisches T-periodisches Signal beinhaltet, dessen Periodizität bekannt ist. Dieses Signal sei in einem Besovraum enthalten. Wir schätzen es mit Hilfe eines nichtparametrischen Waveletschätzers. Unser Schätzer ist von einem Wavelet-Dichteschätzer mit Thresholding inspiriert, der 1996 in einem klassischen iid-Modell von Donoho, Johnstone, Kerkyacharian und Picard konstruiert wurde. Unter gewissen Ergodizitätsvoraussetzungen an den Prozess können wir nichtparametrische Konvergenzraten angegeben, die bis auf einen logarithmischen Term den Raten im klassischen iid-Fall entsprechen. Diese Raten werden mit Hilfe von Orakel-Ungleichungen gezeigt, die auf Ergebnissen über Markovketten in diskreter Zeit von Clémencon, 2001, beruhen. Außerdem betrachten wir einen technisch einfacheren Spezialfall und zeigen einige Computersimulationen dieses Schätzers.

Processi markoviani nascosti

We introduce the notation of Markov chains and their properties, and give the definition of ergodic, irreducible and aperiodic chains with correspective examples. Then, the definition of hidden Markov models is given and their characteristics are examined. We formulate three basic problems regarding the hidden Markov models and discuss the solution of two of them - the Viterbi algorithm and the forward-backward algorithm.