On measuring quality of a probabilistic commodity forecast for a system that incorporates seasonal climate forecasts

Regional commodity forecasts are being used increasingly in agricultural industries to enhance their risk management and decision-making processes. These commodity forecasts are probabilistic in nature and are often integrated with a seasonal climate forecast system. The climate forecast system is based on a subset of analogue years drawn from the full climatological distribution. In this study we sought to measure forecast quality for such an integrated system. We investigated the quality of a commodity (i.e. wheat and sugar) forecast based on a subset of analogue years in relation to a standard reference forecast based on the full climatological set. We derived three key dimensions of forecast quality for such probabilistic forecasts: reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion. A measure of reliability was required to ensure no bias in the forecast distribution. This was assessed via the slope of the reliability plot, which was derived from examination of probability levels of forecasts and associated frequencies of realizations. The other two dimensions related to changes in features of the forecast distribution relative to the reference distribution. The relationship of 13 published accuracy/skill measures to these dimensions of forecast quality was assessed using principal component analysis in case studies of commodity forecasting using seasonal climate forecasting for the wheat and sugar industries in Australia. There were two orthogonal dimensions of forecast quality: one associated with distribution shift relative to the reference distribution and the other associated with relative distribution dispersion. Although the conventional quality measures aligned with these dimensions, none measured both adequately. We conclude that a multi-dimensional approach to assessment of forecast quality is required and that simple measures of reliability, distribution shift, and change in dispersion provide a means for such assessment. The analysis presented was also relevant to measuring quality of probabilistic seasonal climate forecasting systems. The importance of retaining a focus on the probabilistic nature of the forecast and avoiding simplifying, but erroneous, distortions was discussed in relation to applying this new forecast quality assessment paradigm to seasonal climate forecasts. Copyright (K) 2003 Royal Meteorological Society.

Cyclic deformation of bidisperse two-dimensional foams

In-plane deformation of foams was studied experimentally by subjecting bidisperse foams to cycles of traction and compression at a prescribed rate. Each foam contained bubbles of two sizes with given area ratio and one of three initial arrangements: sorted perpendicular to the axis of deformation (iso-strain), sorted parallel to the axis of deformation (iso-stress), or randomly mixed. Image analysis was used to measure the characteristics of the foams, including the number of edges separating small from large bubbles N-sl, the perimeter (surface energy), the distribution of the number of sides of the bubbles, and the topological disorder mu(2)(N). Foams that were initially mixed were found to remain mixed after the deformation. The response of sorted foams, however, depended on the initial geometry, including the area fraction of small bubbles and the total number of bubbles. For a given experiment we found that (i) the perimeter of a sorted foam varied little; (ii) each foam tended towards a mixed state, measured through the saturation of N-sl; and (iii) the topological disorder mu(2)(N) increased up to an "equilibrium" value. The results of different experiments showed that (i) the change in disorder, Delta mu(2)(N), decreased with the area fraction of small bubbles under iso-strain, but was independent of it under iso-stress; and (ii) Delta mu(2)(N) increased with Delta N-sl under iso-strain, but was again independent of it under iso-stress. We offer explanations for these effects in terms of elementary topological processes induced by the deformations that occur at the bubble scale.

Does independent component analysis play a role in unmixing hyperspectral data?

Independent component analysis (ICA) has recently been proposed as a tool to unmix hyperspectral data. ICA is founded on two assumptions: 1) the observed spectrum vector is a linear mixture of the constituent spectra (endmember spectra) weighted by the correspondent abundance fractions (sources); 2)sources are statistically independent. Independent factor analysis (IFA) extends ICA to linear mixtures of independent sources immersed in noise. Concerning hyperspectral data, the first assumption is valid whenever the multiple scattering among the distinct constituent substances (endmembers) is negligible, and the surface is partitioned according to the fractional abundances. The second assumption, however, is violated, since the sum of abundance fractions associated to each pixel is constant due to physical constraints in the data acquisition process. Thus, sources cannot be statistically independent, this compromising the performance of ICA/IFA algorithms in hyperspectral unmixing. This paper studies the impact of hyperspectral source statistical dependence on ICA and IFA performances. We conclude that the accuracy of these methods tends to improve with the increase of the signature variability, of the number of endmembers, and of the signal-to-noise ratio. In any case, there are always endmembers incorrectly unmixed. We arrive to this conclusion by minimizing the mutual information of simulated and real hyperspectral mixtures. The computation of mutual information is based on fitting mixtures of Gaussians to the observed data. A method to sort ICA and IFA estimates in terms of the likelihood of being correctly unmixed is proposed.

Does Independent Component Analysis Play a Role in Unmixing Hyperspectral Data?

Chapter in Book Proceedings with Peer Review First Iberian Conference, IbPRIA 2003, Puerto de Andratx, Mallorca, Spain, JUne 4-6, 2003. Proceedings

Vertex component analysis: a fast algorithm to unmix hyperspectral data

Given a set of mixed spectral (multispectral or hyperspectral) vectors, linear spectral mixture analysis, or linear unmixing, aims at estimating the number of reference substances, also called endmembers, their spectral signatures, and their abundance fractions. This paper presents a new method for unsupervised endmember extraction from hyperspectral data, termed vertex component analysis (VCA). The algorithm exploits two facts: (1) the endmembers are the vertices of a simplex and (2) the affine transformation of a simplex is also a simplex. In a series of experiments using simulated and real data, the VCA algorithm competes with state-of-the-art methods, with a computational complexity between one and two orders of magnitude lower than the best available method.

Parallel implementation of vertex component analysis for hyperspectral endmember extraction

International Conference with Peer Review 2012 IEEE International Conference in Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium (IGARSS), 22-27 July 2012, Munich, Germany

Principal components and generalized linear modeling in the correlation between hospital admissions and air pollution

OBJECTIVE To analyze the association between concentrations of air pollutants and admissions for respiratory causes in children. METHODS Ecological time series study. Daily figures for hospital admissions of children aged < 6, and daily concentrations of air pollutants (PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO) were analyzed in the Região da Grande Vitória, ES, Southeastern Brazil, from January 2005 to December 2010. For statistical analysis, two techniques were combined: Poisson regression with generalized additive models and principal model component analysis. Those analysis techniques complemented each other and provided more significant estimates in the estimation of relative risk. The models were adjusted for temporal trend, seasonality, day of the week, meteorological factors and autocorrelation. In the final adjustment of the model, it was necessary to include models of the Autoregressive Moving Average Models (p, q) type in the residuals in order to eliminate the autocorrelation structures present in the components. RESULTS For every 10:49 μg/m3 increase (interquartile range) in levels of the pollutant PM10 there was a 3.0% increase in the relative risk estimated using the generalized additive model analysis of main components-seasonal autoregressive – while in the usual generalized additive model, the estimate was 2.0%. CONCLUSIONS Compared to the usual generalized additive model, in general, the proposed aspect of generalized additive model − principal component analysis, showed better results in estimating relative risk and quality of fit.

Multiple linear and principal component regressions for modelling ecotoxicity bioassay response

The ecotoxicological response of the living organisms in an aquatic system depends on the physical, chemical and bacteriological variables, as well as the interactions between them. An important challenge to scientists is to understand the interaction and behaviour of factors involved in a multidimensional process such as the ecotoxicological response.With this aim, multiple linear regression (MLR) and principal component regression were applied to the ecotoxicity bioassay response of Chlorella vulgaris and Vibrio fischeri in water collected at seven sites of Leça river during five monitoring campaigns (February, May, June, August and September of 2006). The river water characterization included the analysis of 22 physicochemical and 3 microbiological parameters. The model that best fitted the data was MLR, which shows: (i) a negative correlation with dissolved organic carbon, zinc and manganese, and a positive one with turbidity and arsenic, regarding C. vulgaris toxic response; (ii) a negative correlation with conductivity and turbidity and a positive one with phosphorus, hardness, iron, mercury, arsenic and faecal coliforms, concerning V. fischeri toxic response. This integrated assessment may allow the evaluation of the effect of future pollution abatement measures over the water quality of Leça River.

Objective analysis of gait coordination for total knee arthroplasty outcome

Introduction: Coordination is a strategy chosen by the central nervous system to control the movements and maintain stability during gait. Coordinated multi-joint movements require a complex interaction between nervous outputs, biomechanical constraints, and pro-prioception. Quantitatively understanding and modeling gait coordination still remain a challenge. Surgeons lack a way to model and appreciate the coordination of patients before and after surgery of the lower limbs. Patients alter their gait patterns and their kinematic synergies when they walk faster or slower than normal speed to maintain their stability and minimize the energy cost of locomotion. The goal of this study was to provide a dynamical system approach to quantitatively describe human gait coordination and apply it to patients before and after total knee arthroplasty. Methods: A new method of quantitative analysis of interjoint coordination during gait was designed, providing a general model to capture the whole dynamics and showing the kinematic synergies at various walking speeds. The proposed model imposed a relationship among lower limb joint angles (hips and knees) to parameterize the dynamics of locomotion of each individual. An integration of different analysis tools such as Harmonic analysis, Principal Component Analysis, and Artificial Neural Network helped overcome high-dimensionality, temporal dependence, and non-linear relationships of the gait patterns. Ten patients were studied using an ambulatory gait device (Physilog®). Each participant was asked to perform two walking trials of 30m long at 3 different speeds and to complete an EQ-5D questionnaire, a WOMAC and Knee Society Score. Lower limbs rotations were measured by four miniature angular rate sensors mounted respectively, on each shank and thigh. The outcomes of the eight patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty, recorded pre-operatively and post-operatively at 6 weeks, 3 months, 6 months and 1 year were compared to 2 age-matched healthy subjects. Results: The new method provided coordination scores at various walking speeds, ranged between 0 and 10. It determined the overall coordination of the lower limbs as well as the contribution of each joint to the total coordination. The difference between the pre-operative and post-operative coordination values were correlated with the improvements of the subjective outcome scores. Although the study group was small, the results showed a new way to objectively quantify gait coordination of patients undergoing total knee arthroplasty, using only portable body-fixed sensors. Conclusion: A new method for objective gait coordination analysis has been developed with very encouraging results regarding the objective outcome of lower limb surgery.

The application of chemometrics on Infrared and Raman spectra as a tool for the forensic analysis of paints

The aim of this work is to evaluate the capabilities and limitations of chemometric methods and other mathematical treatments applied on spectroscopic data and more specifically on paint samples. The uniqueness of the spectroscopic data comes from the fact that they are multivariate - a few thousands variables - and highly correlated. Statistical methods are used to study and discriminate samples. A collection of 34 red paint samples was measured by Infrared and Raman spectroscopy. Data pretreatment and variable selection demonstrated that the use of Standard Normal Variate (SNV), together with removal of the noisy variables by a selection of the wavelengths from 650 to 1830 cm−1 and 2730-3600 cm−1, provided the optimal results for infrared analysis. Principal component analysis (PCA) and hierarchical clusters analysis (HCA) were then used as exploratory techniques to provide evidence of structure in the data, cluster, or detect outliers. With the FTIR spectra, the Principal Components (PCs) correspond to binder types and the presence/absence of calcium carbonate. 83% of the total variance is explained by the four first PCs. As for the Raman spectra, we observe six different clusters corresponding to the different pigment compositions when plotting the first two PCs, which account for 37% and 20% respectively of the total variance. In conclusion, the use of chemometrics for the forensic analysis of paints provides a valuable tool for objective decision-making, a reduction of the possible classification errors, and a better efficiency, having robust results with time saving data treatments.

Dimensionality of drinking consequences - cross-cultural comparability and stability over time

Despite the long tradition for asking about the negative social and health consequences of alcohol consumption in surveys, little is known about the dimensionality of these consequences. Analysing cross-sectional and longitudinal data from the Nordic Taxation Study collected for Sweden, Finland, and Denmark in two waves in 2003 and 2004 by means of an explorative principal component analysis for categorical data (CATPCA), it is tested whether consequences have a single underlying dimension across cultures. It further tests the reliability, replicability, concurrent and predictive validity of the consequence scales. A one-dimensional solution was commonly preferable. Whereas the two-dimensional solution was unable to distinguish clearly between different concepts of consequences, the one-dimensional solution resulted in interpretable, generally very stable scales within countries across different samples and time.

Non-covalent and covalent protein labeling in two-dimensional gel electrophoresis.

Over the past decades, several sensitive post-electrophoretic stains have been developed for an identification of proteins in general, or for a specific detection of post-translational modifications such as phosphorylation, glycosylation or oxidation. Yet, for a visualization and quantification of protein differences, the differential two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, termed DIGE, has become the method of choice for a detection of differences in two sets of proteomes. The goal of this review is to evaluate the use of the most common non-covalent and covalent staining techniques in 2D electrophoresis gels, in order to obtain maximal information per electrophoresis gel and for an identification of potential biomarkers. We will also discuss the use of detergents during covalent labeling, the identification of oxidative modifications and review influence of detergents on finger prints analysis and MS/MS identification in relation to 2D electrophoresis.

Ascertaining late-life depressive symptoms in Europe: an evaluation of the survey version of the EURO-D scale in 10 nations. The SHARE project.

The reported prevalence of late-life depressive symptoms varies widely between studies, a finding that might be attributed to cultural as well as methodological factors. The EURO-D scale was developed to allow valid comparison of prevalence and risk associations between European countries. This study used Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) and Rasch models to assess whether the goal of measurement invariance had been achieved; using EURO-D scale data collected in 10 European countries as part of the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) (n = 22,777). The results suggested a two-factor solution (Affective Suffering and Motivation) after Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in 9 of the 10 countries. With CFA, in all countries, the two-factor solution had better overall goodness-of-fit than the one-factor solution. However, only the Affective Suffering subscale was equivalent across countries, while the Motivation subscale was not. The Rasch model indicated that the EURO-D was a hierarchical scale. While the calibration pattern was similar across countries, between countries agreement in item calibrations was stronger for the items loading on the affective suffering than the motivation factor. In conclusion, there is evidence to support the EURO-D as either a uni-dimensional or bi-dimensional scale measure of depressive symptoms in late-life across European countries. The Affective Suffering sub-component had more robust cross-cultural validity than the Motivation sub-component.

Sample preparation for two-dimensional gel electrophoresis.

The choice of sample preparation protocol is a critical influential factor for isoelectric focusing which in turn affects the two-dimensional gel result in terms of quality and protein species distribution. The optimal protocol varies depending on the nature of the sample for analysis and the properties of the constituent protein species (hydrophobicity, tendency to form aggregates, copy number) intended for resolution. This review explains the standard sample buffer constituents and illustrates a series of protocols for processing diverse samples for two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, including hydrophobic membrane proteins. Current methods for concentrating lower abundance proteins, by removal of high abundance proteins, are also outlined. Finally, since protein staining is becoming increasingly incorporated into the sample preparation procedure, we describe the principles and applications of current (and future) pre-electrophoretic labelling methods.

Application of compositional data analysis to geochemical data of marine sediments

In an earlier investigation (Burger et al., 2000) five sediment cores near the RodriguesTriple Junction in the Indian Ocean were studied applying classical statistical methods(fuzzy c-means clustering, linear mixing model, principal component analysis) for theextraction of endmembers and evaluating the spatial and temporal variation ofgeochemical signals. Three main factors of sedimentation were expected by the marinegeologists: a volcano-genetic, a hydro-hydrothermal and an ultra-basic factor. Thedisplay of fuzzy membership values and/or factor scores versus depth providedconsistent results for two factors only; the ultra-basic component could not beidentified. The reason for this may be that only traditional statistical methods wereapplied, i.e. the untransformed components were used and the cosine-theta coefficient assimilarity measure.During the last decade considerable progress in compositional data analysis was madeand many case studies were published using new tools for exploratory analysis of thesedata. Therefore it makes sense to check if the application of suitable data transformations,reduction of the D-part simplex to two or three factors and visualinterpretation of the factor scores would lead to a revision of earlier results and toanswers to open questions . In this paper we follow the lines of a paper of R. Tolosana-Delgado et al. (2005) starting with a problem-oriented interpretation of the biplotscattergram, extracting compositional factors, ilr-transformation of the components andvisualization of the factor scores in a spatial context: The compositional factors will beplotted versus depth (time) of the core samples in order to facilitate the identification ofthe expected sources of the sedimentary process.Kew words: compositional data analysis, biplot, deep sea sediments