Using complex network metrics to predict the persistence of metapopulations with asymmetric connectivity patterns

Almost all metapopulation modelling assumes that connectivity between patches is only a function of distance, and is therefore symmetric. However, connectivity will not depend only on the distance between the patches, as some paths are easy to traverse, while others are difficult. When colonising organisms interact with the heterogeneous landscape between patches, connectivity patterns will invariably be asymmetric. There have been few attempts to theoretically assess the effects of asymmetric connectivity patterns on the dynamics of metapopulations. In this paper, we use the framework of complex networks to investigate whether metapopulation dynamics can be determined by directly analysing the asymmetric connectivity patterns that link the patches. Our analyses focus on “patch occupancy” metapopulation models, which only consider whether a patch is occupied or not. We propose three easily calculated network metrics: the “asymmetry” and “average path strength” of the connectivity pattern, and the “centrality” of each patch. Together, these metrics can be used to predict the length of time a metapopulation is expected to persist, and the relative contribution of each patch to a metapopulation’s viability. Our results clearly demonstrate the negative effect that asymmetry has on metapopulation persistence. Complex network analyses represent a useful new tool for understanding the dynamics of species existing in fragmented landscapes, particularly those existing in large metapopulations.

Affect, attention, or anticipatory arousal? Human blink startle modulation in forward and backward affective conditioning

Affect modulates the blink startle reflex in the picture-viewing paradigm, however, the process responsible for reflex modulation during conditional stimuli (CSs) that have acquired valence through affective conditioning remains unclear. In Experiment 1, neutral shapes (CSs) and valenced or neutral pictures (USs) were paired in a forward (CS → US) manner. Pleasantness ratings supported affective learning of positive and negative valence. Post-acquisition, blink reflexes were larger during the pleasant and unpleasant CSs than during the neutral CS. Rather than affect, attention or anticipatory arousal were suggested as sources of startle modulation. Experiment 2 confirmed that affective learning in the picture–picture paradigm was not affected by whether the CS preceded the US. Pleasantness ratings and affective priming revealed similar extents of affective learning following forward, backward or simultaneous pairings of CSs and USs. Experiment 3 utilized a backward conditioning procedure (US → CS) to minimize effects of US anticipation. Again, blink reflexes were larger during CSs paired with valenced USs regardless of US valence implicating attention rather than anticipatory arousal or affect as the process modulating startle in this paradigm.

Path planning using surface shape and ground properties

This paper presents a path planning technique for ground vehicles that accounts for the dynamics of the vehicle, the topography of the terrain and the wheel/ground interaction properties such as friction. The first two properties can be estimated using well known sensors and techniques, but the third is not often estimated even though it has a significant effect on the motion of a high-speed vehicle. We introduce a technique which allows the estimation of wheel slip from which frictional parameters can be inferred. We present simulation results which show the importance of modelling topography and ground properties and experimental results which show how ground properties can be estimated along a 350m outdoor traverse.

Scheduling Trains with Priorities : a no-wait blocking parallel-machine job-shop scheduling model

The paper investigates train scheduling problems when prioritised trains and non-prioritised trains are simultaneously traversed in a single-line rail network. In this case, no-wait conditions arise because the prioritised trains such as express passenger trains should traverse continuously without any interruption. In comparison, non-prioritised trains such as freight trains are allowed to enter the next section immediately if possible or to remain in a section until the next section on the routing becomes available, which is thought of as a relaxation of no-wait conditions. With thorough analysis of the structural properties of the No-Wait Blocking Parallel-Machine Job-Shop-Scheduling (NWBPMJSS) problem that is originated in this research, an innovative generic constructive algorithm (called NWBPMJSS_Liu-Kozan) is proposed to construct the feasible train timetable in terms of a given order of trains. In particular, the proposed NWBPMJSS_Liu-Kozan constructive algorithm comprises several recursively-used sub-algorithms (i.e. Best-Starting-Time-Determination Procedure, Blocking-Time-Determination Procedure, Conflict-Checking Procedure, Conflict-Eliminating Procedure, Tune-up Procedure and Fine-tune Procedure) to guarantee feasibility by satisfying the blocking, no-wait, deadlock-free and conflict-free constraints. A two-stage hybrid heuristic algorithm (NWBPMJSS_Liu-Kozan-BIH) is developed by combining the NWBPMJSS_Liu-Kozan constructive algorithm and the Best-Insertion-Heuristic (BIH) algorithm to find the preferable train schedule in an efficient and economical way. Extensive computational experiments show that the proposed methodology is promising because it can be applied as a standard and fundamental toolbox for identifying, analysing, modelling and solving real-world scheduling problems.

Strolling through the (post)modern city: Modes of being a flaneur in picture books

The city and the urban condition, popular subjects of art, literature, and film, have been commonly represented as fragmented, isolating, violent, with silent crowds moving through the hustle and bustle of a noisy, polluted cityspace. Included in this diverse artistic field is children’s literature—an area of creative and critical inquiry that continues to play a central role in illuminating and shaping perceptions of the city, of city lifestyles, and of the people who traverse the urban landscape. Fiction’s textual representations of cities, its sites and sights, lifestyles and characters have drawn on traditions of realist, satirical, and fantastic writing to produce the protean urban story—utopian, dystopian, visionary, satirical—with the goal of offering an account or critique of the contemporary city and the urban condition. In writing about cities and urban life, children’s literature variously locates the child in relation to the social (urban) space. This dialogic relation between subject and social space has been at the heart of writings about/of the flâneur: a figure who experiences modes of being in the city as it transforms under the influences of modernism and postmodernism. Within this context of a changing urban ontology brought about by (post)modern styles and practices, this article examines five contemporary picture books: The Cows Are Going to Paris by David Kirby and Allen Woodman; Ooh-la-la (Max in love) by Maira Kalman; Mr Chicken Goes to Paris and Old Tom’s Holiday by Leigh Hobbs; and The Empty City by David Megarrity. I investigate the possibility of these texts reviving the act of flânerie, but in a way that enables different modes of being a flâneur, a neo-flâneur. I suggest that the neo-flâneur retains some of the characteristics of the original flâneur, but incorporates others that take account of the changes wrought by postmodernity and globalization, particularly tourism and consumption. The dual issue at the heart of the discussion is that tourism and consumption as agents of cultural globalization offer a different way of thinking about the phenomenon of flânerie. While the flâneur can be regarded as the precursor to the tourist, the discussion considers how different modes of flânerie, such as the tourist-flâneur, are an inevitable outcome of commodification of the activities that accompany strolling through the (post)modern urban space.

Men, wage work and family

In the last two decades there has been a plethora of research on a range of subjects collectively and rhetorically known as ‘work-life balance’. The bulk of this research, which spans disciplines including feminist sociology, industrial relations and management, has focused on the significant concerns of employed women and/or dual career couples. Less attention has been devoted to scholarship which explicitly examines men and masculinities in this context. Meanwhile, public and organizational discourse is largely espoused in gender neutral terms, often neglecting salient gendered issues which differentially impact the ability of women and men to successfully integrate their work and non-work lives. This edited book brings together empirical studies of the work-life nexus with a specific focus on men’s working time arrangements, how men navigate and traverse paid work and family commitments, and the impact of public and organizational policies on men’s participation in work, leisure, and other life domains. The book is innovative in that it presents both macro (institutional, how policy affects practice) and micro (individual, from men’s own perspectives) level studies, allowing for a rich and contrasting exploration of how men’s participation in paid work and other domains is divided, conflicted, or integrated. The essays in this volume address issues of fundamental social, labor market, and economic change which have occurred over the last 20 years and which have profoundly affected the way work, care, leisure and community have evolved in different contexts. Taking an international focus, Men, Wage Work and Family contrasts various public and organizational policies and how these policies impact men’s opportunities and participation in paid work and non-work domains in industrialised countries in Europe, North America, and Australia.

Introduction. Locating men in the work-life nexus

In the last two decades there has been a plethora of research on a range of subjects collectively and rhetorically known as ‘work-life balance’. The bulk of this research, which spans disciplines including feminist sociology, industrial relations and management, has focused on the significant concerns of employed women and/or dual career couples. Less attention has been devoted to scholarship which explicitly examines men and masculinities in this context. Meanwhile, public and organizational discourse is largely espoused in gender neutral terms, often neglecting salient gendered issues which differentially impact the ability of women and men to successfully integrate their work and non-work lives. This edited book brings together empirical studies of the work-life nexus with a specific focus on men’s working time arrangements, how men navigate and traverse paid work and family commitments, and the impact of public and organizational policies on men’s participation in work, leisure, and other life domains. The book is innovative in that it presents both macro (institutional, how policy affects practice) and micro (individual, from men’s own perspectives) level studies, allowing for a rich and contrasting exploration of how men’s participation in paid work and other domains is divided, conflicted, or integrated. The essays in this volume address issues of fundamental social, labor market, and economic change which have occurred over the last 20 years and which have profoundly affected the way work, care, leisure and community have evolved in different contexts. Taking an international focus, Men, Wage Work and Family contrasts various public and organizational policies and how these policies impact men’s opportunities and participation in paid work and non-work domains in industrialised countries in Europe, North America, and Australia.

Clines in cuticular hydrocarbons in two Drosophila species with independent population histories

We took a comparative approach utilizing clines to investigate the extent to which natural selection may have shaped population divergence in cuticular hydrocarbons (CHCs) that are also under sexual selection in Drosophila. We detected the presence of CHC clines along a latitudinal gradient on the east coast of Australia in two fly species with independent phylogenetic and population histories, suggesting adaptation to shared abiotic factors. For both species, significant associations were detected between clinal variation in CHCs and temperature variation along the gradient, suggesting temperature maxima as a candidate abiotic factor shaping CHC variation among populations. However, rainfall and humidity correlated with CHC variation to differing extents in the two species, suggesting that response to these abiotic factors may vary in a species-specific manner. Our results suggest that natural selection, in addition to sexual selection, plays a significant role in structuring among-population variation in sexually selected traits in Drosophila.

Ionic liquid pre-treatment and fractionation of sugarcane bagasse for the production of bioethanol

Pretretament is an essential and expensive processing step for the manufacturing of ethanol from lignocellulosic raw materials. Ionic liquids are a new class of solvents that have the potential to be used as pretreatment agents. The attractive characteristics of ionic liquid pretreatment of lignocellulosics such as thermal stability, dissolution properties, fractionation potential, cellulose decrystallisation capacity and saccharification impact are investigated in this thesis. Dissolution of bagasse with 1-butyl-3-methylimidazolium chloride ([C4mim]Cl) at high temperatures (110 �‹C to 160 �‹C) is investigated as a pretreatment process. Material balances are reported and used along with enzymatic saccharification data to identify optimum pretreatment conditions (150 �‹C for 90 min). At these conditions, the dissolved and reprecipitated material is enriched in cellulose, has a low crystallinity and the cellulose component is efficiently hydrolysed (93 %, 3 h, 15 FPU). At pretreatment temperatures < 150 �‹C, the undissolved material has only slightly lower crystallinity than the starting. At pretreatment temperatures . 150 �‹C, the undissolved material has low crystallinity and when combined with the dissolved material has a saccharification rate and extent similar to completely dissolved material (100 %, 3h, 15 FPU). Complete dissolution is not necessary to maximize saccharification efficiency at temperatures . 150 �‹C. Fermentation of [C4mim]Cl-pretreated, enzyme-saccharified bagasse to ethanol is successfully conducted (85 % molar glucose-to-ethanol conversion efficiency). As compared to standard dilute acid pretreatment, the optimised [C4mim]Cl pretreatment achieves substantially higher ethanol yields (79 % cf. 52 %) in less than half the processing time (pretreatment, saccharification, fermentation). Fractionation of bagasse partially dissolved in [C4mim]Cl to a polysaccharide rich and a lignin rich fraction is attempted using aqueous biphasic systems (ABSs) and single phase systems with preferential precipitation. ABSs of ILs and concentrated aqueous inorganic salt solutions are achievable (e.g. [C4mim]Cl with 200 g L-1 NaOH), albeit they exhibit a number of technical problems including phase convergence (which increases with increasing biomass loading) and deprotonation of imidazolium ILs (5 % - 8 % mol). Single phase fractionation systems comprising lignin solvents / cellulose antisolvents, viz. NaOH (2M) and acetone in water (1:1, volume basis), afford solids with, respectively, 40 % mass and 29 % mass less lignin than water precipitated solids. However, this delignification imparts little increase in saccharification rates and extents of these solids. An alternative single phase fractionation system is achieved simply by using water as an antisolvent. Regulating the water : IL ratio results in a solution that precipitates cellulose and maintains lignin in solution (0.5 water : IL mass ratio) in both [C4mim]Cl and 1-ethyl-3-methylimidazolium acetate ([C2mim]OAc)). This water based fractionation is applied in three IL pretreatments on bagasse ([C4mim]Cl, 1-ethyl-3-methyl imidazolium chloride ([C2mim]Cl) and [C2mim]OAc). Lignin removal of 10 %, 50 % and 60 % mass respectively is achieved although only 0.3 %, 1.5 % and 11.7 % is recoverable even after ample water addition (3.5 water : IL mass ratio) and acidification (pH . 1). In addition the recovered lignin fraction contains 70 % mass hemicelluloses. The delignified, cellulose-rich bagasse recovered from these three ILs is exposed to enzyme saccharification. The saccharification (24 h, 15 FPU) of the cellulose mass in starting bagasse, achieved by these pretreatments rank as: [C2mim]OAc (83 %)>>[C2mim]Cl (53 %)=[C4mim]Cl(53%). Mass balance determinations accounted for 97 % of starting bagasse mass for the [C4mim]Cl pretreatment , 81 % for [C2mim]Cl and 79 %for [C2mim]OAc. For all three IL treatments, the remaining bagasse mass (not accounted for by mass balance determinations) is mainly (more than half) lignin that is not recoverable from the liquid fraction. After pretreatment, 100 % mass of both ions of all three ILs were recovered in the liquid fraction. Compositional characteristics of [C2mim]OAc treated solids such as low lignin, low acetyl group content and preservation of arabinosyl groups are opposite to those of chloride IL treated solids. The former biomass characteristics resemble those imparted by aqueous alkali pretreatment while the latter resemble those of aqueous acid pretreatments. The 100 % mass recovery of cellulose in [C2mim]OAc as opposed to 53 % mass recovery in [C2mim]Cl further demonstrates this since the cellulose glycosidic bonds are protected under alkali conditions. The alkyl chain length decrease in the imidazolium cation of these ILs imparts higher rates of dissolution and losses, and increases the severity of the treatment without changing the chemistry involved.

A new approach for power system black-start decision-making with vague set theory

Power system restoration after a large area outage involves many factors, and the procedure is usually very complicated. A decision-making support system could then be developed so as to find the optimal black-start strategy. In order to evaluate candidate black-start strategies, some indices, usually both qualitative and quantitative, are employed. However, it may not be possible to directly synthesize these indices, and different extents of interactions may exist among these indices. In the existing black-start decision-making methods, qualitative and quantitative indices cannot be well synthesized, and the interactions among different indices are not taken into account. The vague set, an extended version of the well-developed fuzzy set, could be employed to deal with decision-making problems with interacting attributes. Given this background, the vague set is first employed in this work to represent the indices for facilitating the comparisons among them. Then, a concept of the vague-valued fuzzy measure is presented, and on that basis a mathematical model for black-start decision-making developed. Compared with the existing methods, the proposed method could deal with the interactions among indices and more reasonably represent the fuzzy information. Finally, an actual power system is served for demonstrating the basic features of the developed model and method.

A formal method for attack modelling and detection

This paper presents a formal methodology for attack modeling and detection for networks. Our approach has three phases. First, we extend the basic attack tree approach 1 to capture (i) the temporal dependencies between components, and (ii) the expiration of an attack. Second, using the enhanced attack trees (EAT) we build a tree automaton that accepts a sequence of actions from input stream if there is a traverse of an attack tree from leaves to the root node. Finally, we show how to construct an enhanced parallel automaton (EPA) that has each tree automaton as a subroutine and can process the input stream by considering multiple trees simultaneously. As a case study, we show how to represent the attacks in IEEE 802.11 and construct an EPA for it.

Investigating effective wayfinding in airports : a Bayesian network approach

Effective Wayfinding is the successful interplay of human and environmental factors resulting in a person successfully moving from their current position to a desired location in a timely manner. To date this process has not been modelled to reflect this interplay. This paper proposes a complex modelling system approach of wayfinding by using Bayesian Networks to model this process, and applies the model to airports. The model suggests that human factors have a greater impact on effective wayfinding in airports than environmental factors. The greatest influences on human factors are found to be the level of spatial anxiety experienced by travellers and their cognitive and spatial skills. The model also predicted that the navigation pathway that a traveller must traverse has a larger impact on the effectiveness of an airport’s environment in promoting effective wayfinding than the terminal design.

Business planning, innovation and performance in nascent firms

Debate about the relationships between business planning and performance has been active for decades (Bhidé, 2000; Mintzberg, 1994). While results have been inconclusive, this topic still strongly divides the research community (Brinckmann et al., 2010; Chwolka & Raith, 2011; Delmar & Shane, 2004; Frese, 2009; Gruber, 2007; Honig & Karlsson, 2004). Previous research explored the relationships between innovation and the venture creation process (Amason et al., 2006, Dewar & Dutton, 1986; Jennings et al., 2009). However, the relationships between business planning and innovation have mostly been invoked indirectly in the strategy and entrepreneurship literatures through the notion of uncertainty surrounding the development of innovation. Some posited that planning may be irrelevant due to the iterative process, the numerous changes innovation development entails and the need to be flexible (Brews & Hunt, 1999). Others suggested that planning may facilitate the achievement of goals and overcoming of obstacles (Locke and Latham, 2000), guide the venture in its allocation of resources (Delmar and Shane, 2003) and help to foster the communication about the innovation being developed (Liao & Welsh, 2008). However, the nature and extents of the relationships between business planning, innovation and performance are still largely unknown. Moreover, if the reasons why ventures should engage (Frese, 2009) –or not- (Honig, 2004) in business planning have been investigated quite extensively (Brinckmann et al., 2010), the specific value of business planning for nascent firms developing innovation is still unclear. The objective of this paper is to shed some light on these important aspects by investigating the two following questions on a large sample of random nascent firms: 1) how is business planning use over time by new ventures developing different types and degrees of innovation? 2) how do business planning and innovation impact the performance of the nascent firms? Methods & Key propositions This PSED-type study draws its data from the first three waves of the CAUSEE project where 30,105 Australian households were randomly contacted by phone using a methodology to capture emerging firms (Davidsson, Steffens, Gordon, Reynolds, 2008). This screening led to the identification of 594 nascent ventures (i.e., firms that were not operating yet at the time of the identification) that were willing to participate in the study. Comprehensive phone interviews were conducted with these 594 ventures. Likewise, two comprehensive follow-ups were organised 12 months and 24 months later where 80% of the eligible cases of the previous wave completed the interview. The questionnaire contains specific sections investigating business plans such as: presence or absence, degree of formality and updates of the plan. Four types of innovation are measured along three degrees of intensity to produce a comprehensive continuous measure ranging from 0 to 12 (Dahlqvist & Wiklund, 2011). Other sections informing on the gestation activities, industry and different types of experiences will be used as controls to measure the relationships and the impacts of business planning and innovation on the performance of nascent firms overtime. Results from two rounds of pre-testing informed the design of the instrument included in the main survey. The three waves of data are used to first test and compare the use of planning amongst nascent firms by their degrees of innovation and then to examine their impact on performance overtime through regression analyses. Results and Implications Three waves of data collection have been completed. Preliminary results show that on average, innovative firms are more likely to have a business plans than their low innovative counterpart. They are also most likely to update their plan suggesting a more continuous use of the plan over time than previously thought. Further analyses regarding the relationships between business planning, innovation and performance are undergoing. This paper is expected to contribute to the literature on business planning and innovation by measuring quantitatively their impact on nascent firms activities and performance at different stages of their development. In addition, this study will shed a new light on the business planning-performance relationship by disentangling plans, types of nascent firms regarding their innovation degres and their performance over time. Finally, we expect to increase the understanding of the venture creation process by analysing those questions on nascent firms from a large longitudinal sample of randomly selected ventures. We acknowledge the results from this study will be preliminary and will have to be interpreted with caution as the business planning-performance is not a straightforward relationship (Brinckmann et al., 2010). Meanwhile, we believe that this study is important to the field of entrepreneurship as it provides some much needed insights on the processes used by nascent firms during their creation and early operating stages.

A distance too far away : a novel and exegesis

This practice-led research examines the generative function of loss in fiction that explores themes of grief and longing. This research considers how loss may be understood as a structuring mechanism through which characters evaluate time, resolve loss and affect future change. The creative work is a work of literary fiction titled A Distance Too Far Away. Aubrey, the story’s protagonist, is a woman in her twenties living in Brisbane in the early 1980s, carving out an independent life for herself away from her family. Through a flashback narrative sequence, told from the perspective of the twelve year narrator, Aubrey retraces a significant point of rupture in her life following a series of family tragedies. A Distance Too Far Away explores the tension between belonging and freedom, and considers how the past provides a malleable space for illuminating desire in order to traverse the gap between the world as it is and the world as we want it to be. The exegetical component of this research considers an alternative critical frame for interpreting the work of American author Anne Tyler, a writer who has had a significant influence on my own practice. Frequently criticised for creating sentimental and inert characters, many critics observe that nothing happens in Tyler’s circular plots. This research challenges these assertions, and through a contextual analysis of Tyler’s Ladder of Years (1995) investigates how Tyler engages with memory and nostalgia in order to move across time and resolve loss.

The art of being a fan : complicity and criticality in contemporary art and fandom

This practice-led research project aims to use contemporary art processes and concepts of fandom to construct a space for the critical and creative exploration of the relationship between them. Much of the discourse addressing the intersection of these spaces over the last three decades tends to treat art and fan studies as separate areas of critical and theoretical research. There has also been very little consideration of the critical interface that art practice and fandom share in their engagement with one another – or how the artist as fan might creatively exploit this relationship. Approaching these issues through a practice-led methodology that combines studio based explorations and traditional modes of research, the project aims to demonstrate how my 'fannish' engagements with popular culture can generate new responses to, and understandings of, the relationship between fandom, affect and visual art. The research acts as a performative and creative investigation of fandom as I document the complicit tendencies that arise out of my affective relationship with pop cultural artefacts. It does this through appropriating and reconfiguring content from film, television and print media, to create digital video installations aimed at engendering new experiences and critical interpretations of screen culture. This approach promotes new possibilities for creative engagements with art and popular culture, and these are framed through the lens of what I term the digital-bricoleur. The research will be primarily contextualised by examining other artists' practices as well as selected theoretical frameworks that traverse my investigative terrain. The key artists that are discussed include Douglas Gordon, Candice Brietz, Pierre Huyghe, Paul Pfieffer, and Jennifer and Kevin McCoy. The theoretical developments of the project are drawn from a pluralistic range of ideas ranging from Johanna Drucker's discussion of critical complicity in contemporary art, Matt Hills' discussion of subjectivity in fandom and academia, Nicolas Bourriaud's discussion of Postproduction art practices, and Jacques Rancière's ideas about aesthetics and politics. The methodology and artworks developed over the course of this project will also demonstrate how digital-bricolage leads to new understandings of the relationships between contemporary art and entertainment. The research aims to exploit these apparently contradictory positions to generate a productive site for rethinking the relationship between the creative and critical possibilities of art and fandom. The outcomes of the research consists of a body of artworks – 75% – that demonstrate new contributions to knowledge, and an exegetical component – 25% – that acts to reflect on, analyse and critically contextualise the practice-led findings.