The pace of Holocene vegetation change - testing for synchronous developments

Mid to high latitude forest ecosystems have undergone several major compositional changes during the Holocene. The temporal and spatial patterns of these vegetation changes hold potential information to their causes and triggers. Here we test the hypothesis that the timing of vegetation change was synchronous on a sub-continental scale, which implies a common trigger or a step-like change in climate parameters. Pollen diagrams from selected European regions were statistically divided into assemblage zones and the temporal pattern of the zone boundaries analysed. The results show that the temporal pattern of vegetation change was significantly different from random. Times of change cluster around8.2, 4.8, 3.7, and 1.2 ka, while times of higher than average stability were found around 2.1 and 5.1 ka.Compositional changes linked to the expansion of Corylus avellana and Alnus glutinosa centre around 10.6 and 9.5 ka, respectively. A climatic trigger initiating these changes may have occurred 0.5 to 1 ka earlier, respectively. The synchronous expansion of C. avellana and A. glutinosa exemplify that dispersal is not necessarily followed by population expansion. The partly synchronous, partly random expansion of A. glutinosa in adjacent European regions exemplifies that sudden synchronous population expansions are not species specific traits but vary regionally.

Synchronous records of pCO2 and Δ14C suggest rapid, ocean-derived pCO2 fluctuations at the onset of Younger Dryas

Just before the onset of the Younger Dryas (YD) cold event, several stomatal proxy-based pCO2 records have shown a sharp increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration (pCO2) of between ca 50 and 100 ppm, followed by a rapid decrease of similar or even larger magnitude. Here we compare one of these records, a high-resolution pCO2 record from southern Sweden, with the IntCal13 record of radiocarbon (Δ14C). The two records show broadly synchronous fluctuations at the YD onset. Specifically, the IntCal13 record documents decreasing Δ14C just before the YD onset when pCO2 peaks, consistent with a source of “old” CO2 from the deep ocean. We propose that this fluctuation occurred due to a major ocean flushing event. The cause of the flushing event remains speculative but could be related to the hypothesis of the glacial ocean as a thermobaric capacitor. We confirm that the earth system can produce such large multi-decadal timescale fluctuations in pCO2 through simulating an artificial ocean flushing event with the GENIE Earth System Model. We suggest that sharp transitions of pCO2 may have remained undetected so far in ice cores due to inter-firn gas exchange and time-averaging. The stomatal proxy record is a powerful complement to the ice core records for the study of rapid climate change.

Synchronous Islanding Control in the Presence of Hydro-electric Generation

This paper introduces a novel load sharing algorithm to enable island synchronization. The system model used for development is based on an actual system for which historical measurement and fault data is available and is used to refine and test the algorithms performance and validity. The electrical system modelled is selected due to its high-level of hydroelectric generation and its history of islanding events. The process of developing the load sharing algorithm includes a number of steps. Firstly, the development of a simulation model to represent the case study accurately - this is validated by way of matching system behavior based on data from historical island events. Next, a generic island simulation is used to develop the load sharing algorithm. The algorithm is then tested against the validated simulation model representing the case study area selected. Finally, a laboratory setup is described which is used as validation method for the novel load sharing algorithm.

Irish Power System Primary Frequency Response Metrics during Different System Non Synchronous Penetrations.

This paper discusses the use of primary frequency response metrics to assess the dynamics of frequency disturbance data with the presence of high system non synchronous penetration (SNSP) and system inertia variation. The Irish power system has been chosen as a study case as it experiences a significant level of SNSP from wind turbine generation and imported active power from HVDC interconnectors. Several recorded actual frequency disturbances were used in the analysis. These data were measured and collected from the Irish power system from October 2010 to June 2013. The paper has shown the impact of system inertia and SNSP variation on the performance of primary frequency response metrics, namely: nadir frequency, rate of change of frequency, inertial and primary frequency response.

A Cyber-Physical Security Analysis of Synchronous-Islanded Microgrid Operation

Cyber-security research in the field of smart grids is often performed with a focus on either the power and control domain or the Information and Communications Technology (ICT) domain. The characteristics of the power equipment or ICT domain are commonly not collectively considered. This work provides an analysis of the physical effects of cyber-attacks on microgrids – a smart grid construct that allows continued power supply when disconnected from a main grid. Different types of microgrid operations are explained (connected, islanded and synchronous-islanding) and potential cyber-attacks and their physical effects are analyzed. A testbed that is based on physical power and ICT equipment is presented to validate the results in both the physical and ICT domain.

An HMM-based spectrum occupancy predictor for energy efficient cognitive radio

Spectrum sensing is the cornerstone of cognitive radio technology and refers to the process of obtaining awareness of the radio spectrum usage in order to detect the presence of other users. Spectrum sensing algorithms consume considerable energy and time. Prediction methods for inferring the channel occupancy of future time instants have been proposed as a means of improving performance in terms of energy and time consumption. This paper studies the performance of a hidden Markov model (HMM) spectrum occupancy predictor as well as the improvement in sensing energy and time consumption based on real occupancy data obtained in the 2.4GHz ISM band. Experimental results show that the HMM-based occupancy predictor outperforms a kth order Markov and a 1-nearest neighbour (1NN) predictor. Our study also suggests that by employing such a predictive scheme in spectrum sensing, an improvement of up to 66% can be achieved in the required sensing energy and time.

Modeling, control and simulation of full-power converter wind turbines equipped with permanent magnet synchronous generator

In this paper, two wind turbines equipped with a permanent magnet synchronous generator (PMSG) and respectively with a two-level or a multilevel converter are simulated in order to access the malfunction transient performance. Three different drive train mass models, respectively, one, two and three mass models, are considered in order to model the bending flexibility of the blades. Moreover, a fractional-order control strategy is studied comparatively to a classical integer-order control strategy. Computer simulations are carried out, and conclusions about the total harmonic distortion (THD) of the electric current injected into the electric grid are in favor of the fractional-order control strategy.