Prediction of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange

This thesis studies the predictability of market switching and delisting events from OMX First North Nordic multilateral stock exchange by using financial statement information and market information from 2007 to 2012. This study was conducted by using a three stage process. In first stage relevant theoretical framework and initial variable pool were constructed. Then, explanatory analysis of the initial variable pool was done in order to further limit and identify relevant variables. The explanatory analysis was conducted by using self-organizing map methodology. In the third stage, the predictive modeling was carried out with random forests and support vector machine methodologies. It was found that the explanatory analysis was able to identify relevant variables. The results indicate that the market switching and delisting events can be predicted in some extent. The empirical results also support the usability of financial statement and market information in the prediction of market switching and delisting events.

Effect of pyloroplasty and fundectomy on the delay of gastric emptying and gastrointestinal transit of liquid elicited by acute blood volume expansion in awake rats

We evaluated the effects of fundectomy and pyloroplasty on the delay of gastric emptying (GE) and gastrointestinal (GI) transit of liquid due to blood volume (BV) expansion in awake rats. Male Wistar rats (N = 76, 180-250 g) were first submitted to fundectomy (N = 26), Heinecke-Mikulicz pyloroplasty (N = 25) or SHAM laparotomy (N = 25). After 6 days, the left external jugular vein was cannulated and the animals were fasted for 24 h with water ad libitum. The test meal was administered intragastrically (1.5 ml of a phenol red solution, 0.5 mg/ml in 5% glucose) to normovolemic control animals and to animals submitted to BV expansion (Ringer-bicarbonate, iv infusion, 1 ml/min, volume up to 5% body weight). BV expansion decreased GE and GI transit rates in SHAM laparotomized animals by 52 and 35.9% (P<0.05). Fundectomy increased GE and GI transit rates by 61.1 and 67.7% (P<0.05) and prevented the effect of expansion on GE but not on GI transit (13.9% reduction, P<0.05). Pyloroplasty also increased GE and GI transit rates by 33.9 and 44.8% (P<0.05) but did not prevent the effect of expansion on GE or GI transit (50.7 and 21.1% reduction, P<0.05). Subdiaphragmatic vagotomy blocked the effect of expansion on GE and GI transit in both SHAM laparotomized animals and animals submitted to pyloroplasty. In conclusion 1) the proximal stomach is involved in the GE delay due to BV expansion but is not essential for the establishment of a delay in GI transit, which suggests the activation of intestinal resistances, 2) pyloric modulation was not apparent, and 3) vagal pathways are involved

Delay in gallbladder emptying during the perimenopausal period

A pilot study has ascribed an important role in gallbladder motility and emptying to the perimenopausal period. To assess the effect of this period on gallbladder emptying and cholelithogenesis, 25 women in the perimenopausal period without gallbladder disease were submitted to cholangiography and two ultrasound exams. The time for gallbladder emptying and the presence of cholelithiasis were assessed. All patients presented a delay in gallbladder emptying with no relationship to the pre- or postmenopausal period. This finding was not related to lithogenesis. Gallbladder emptying time is longer during the perimenopausal period.

Treatment delay and radiological errors in patients with bone metastases

During routine investigations, we are surprised to find that therapy for bone metastases is sometimes delayed for a considerable period of time. To determine the extent of this delay and its causes, we reviewed the medical records of symptomatic patients seen at our hospital who had been recently diagnosed as having bone metastases for the last four years. The treatment delay was defined as the interval between presentation with symptoms and definitive treatment for bone metastases. The diagnostic delay was defined as the interval between presentation with symptoms and diagnosis of bone metastases. The results of diagnostic radiological examinations were also reviewed for errors. The study population included 76 males and 34 females with a median age of 66 years. Most bone metastases were diagnosed radiologically. Over 75% of patients were treated with radiotherapy. The treatment delay ranged from 2 to 307 days, with a mean of 53.3 days. In 490 radiological studies reviewed, we identified 166 (33.9%) errors concerning 62 (56.4%) patients. The diagnostic delay was significantly longer for patients with radiological errors than for patients without radiological errors (P < 0.001), and much of it was due to radiological errors. In conclusion, the treatment delay in patients with symptomatic bone metastases was much longer than expected, and much of it was caused by radiological errors. Considerable efforts should therefore be made to more carefully examine the radiological studies in order to ensure prompt treatment of bone metastases.

Regime-Switching in the Impact of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from Oil-Importing and Oil-Exporting Countries

Research has highlighted the adequacy of Markov regime-switching model to address dynamic behavior in long term stock market movements. Employing a purposed Extended regime-switching GARCH(1,1) model, this thesis further investigates the regime dependent nonlinear relationship between changes in oil price and stock market volatility in Saudi Arabia, Norway and Singapore for the period of 2001-2014. Market selection is prioritized to national dependency on oil export or import, which also rationalizes the fitness of implied bivariate volatility model. Among two regimes identified by the mean model, high stock market return-low volatility regime reflects the stable economic growth periods. The other regime characterized by low stock market return-high volatility coincides with episodes of recession and downturn. Moreover, results of volatility model provide the evidence that shocks in stock markets are less persistent during the high volatility regime. While accelerated oil price rises the stock market volatility during recessions, it reduces the stock market risk during normal growth periods in Singapore. In contrast, oil price showed no significant notable impact on stock market volatility of target oil-exporting countries in either of the volatility regime. In light to these results, international investors and policy makers could benefit the risk management in relation to oil price fluctuation.

Category fluency test: effects of age, gender and education on total scores, clustering and switching in Brazilian Portuguese-speaking subjects

Verbal fluency tests are used as a measure of executive functions and language, and can also be used to evaluate semantic memory. We analyzed the influence of education, gender and age on scores in a verbal fluency test using the animal category, and on number of categories, clustering and switching. We examined 257 healthy participants (152 females and 105 males) with a mean age of 49.42 years (SD = 15.75) and having a mean educational level of 5.58 (SD = 4.25) years. We asked them to name as many animals as they could. Analysis of variance was performed to determine the effect of demographic variables. No significant effect of gender was observed for any of the measures. However, age seemed to influence the number of category changes, as expected for a sensitive frontal measure, after being controlled for the effect of education. Educational level had a statistically significant effect on all measures, except for clustering. Subject performance (mean number of animals named) according to schooling was: illiterates, 12.1; 1 to 4 years, 12.3; 5 to 8 years, 14.0; 9 to 11 years, 16.7, and more than 11 years, 17.8. We observed a decrease in performance in these five educational groups over time (more items recalled during the first 15 s, followed by a progressive reduction until the fourth interval). We conclude that education had the greatest effect on the category fluency test in this Brazilian sample. Therefore, we must take care in evaluating performance in lower educational subjects.

Nutritional status and body composition after 6 months of patients switching from continuous ambulatorial peritoneal dialysis to automated peritoneal dialysis

Our objective was to determine if automated peritoneal dialysis (APD) leads to changes in nutritional parameters of patients treated by continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD). Twenty-six patients (15 males; 50.5 ± 14.3 years) were evaluated during CAPD while training for APD and after 3 and 6 months of APD. Body fat was assessed by the sum of skinfold thickness and the other body compartments were assessed by bioelectrical impedance. During the 6-month follow-up, 12 patients gained more than 1 kg (GW group), 8 patients lost more than 1 kg (LW group), and 6 patients maintained body weight (MW group). Except for length on dialysis that was longer for the LW group compared with the GW group, no other differences were found between the groups at baseline. After 6 months on APD, the LW group had a reduction in body fat (24.5 ± 7.7 vs 22.1 ± 7.3 kg; P = 0.01), body cell mass (22.6 ± 6.2 vs 21.6 ± 5.8 kg, P = 0.02) and phase angle (5.4 ± 0.9 vs 5.1 ± 0.8 degrees, P = 0.004). In the GW group, body fat (25 ± 7.6 vs 27.2 ± 7.6 kg, P = 0.001) and body cell mass (20.1 ± 3.9 vs 20.8 ± 4.0 kg, P = 0.05) were increased. In the present study, different patterns of change in body composition were found. The length of previous dialysis treatment seems to be the most important factor in determining these nutritional modifications.

Modeling Energy Futures Returns With Markov Regime Switching Model

Financial time series have a tendency of abruptly changing their behavior and maintain this behavior for several consecutive periods, and commodity futures returns are not an exception. This quality proposes that nonlinear models, as opposed to linear models, can more accurately describe returns and volatility. Markov regime switching models are able to match this behavior and have become a popular way to model financial time series. This study uses Markov regime switching model to describe the behavior of energy futures returns on a commodity level, because studies show that commodity futures are a heterogeneous asset class. The purpose of this thesis is twofold. First, determine how many regimes characterize individual energy commodities’ returns in different return frequencies. Second, study the characteristics of these regimes. We extent the previous studies on the subject in two ways: We allow for the possibility that the number of regimes may exceed two, as well as conduct the research on individual commodities rather than on commodity indices or subgroups of these indices. We use daily, weekly and monthly time series of Brent crude oil, WTI crude oil, natural gas, heating oil and gasoil futures returns over 1994–2014, where available, to carry out the study. We apply the likelihood ratio test to determine the sufficient number of regimes for each commodity and data frequency. Then the time series are modeled with Markov regime switching model to obtain the return distribution characteristics of each regime, as well as the transition probabilities of moving between regimes. The results for the number of regimes suggest that daily energy futures return series consist of three to six regimes, whereas weekly and monthly returns for all energy commodities display only two regimes. When the number of regimes exceeds two, there is a tendency for the time series of energy commodities to form groups of regimes. These groups are usually quite persistent as a whole because probability of a regime switch inside the group is high. However, individual regimes in these groups are not persistent and the process oscillates between these regimes frequently. Regimes that are not part of any group are generally persistent, but show low ergodic probability, i.e. rarely prevail in the market. This study also suggests that energy futures return series characterized with two regimes do not necessarily display persistent bull and bear regimes. In fact, for the majority of time series, bearish regime is considerably less persistent. Rahoituksen aikasarjoilla on taipumus arvaamattomasti muuttaa käyttäytymistään ja jatkaa tätä uutta käyttäytymistä useiden periodien ajan, eivätkä hyödykefutuurien tuotot tee tähän poikkeusta. Tämän ominaisuuden johdosta lineaaristen mallien sijasta epälineaariset mallit pystyvät tarkemmin kuvailemaan esimerkiksi tuottojen jakauman parametreja. Markov regiiminvaihtomallit pystyvät vangitsemaan tämän ominaisuuden ja siksi niistä on tullut suosittuja rahoituksen aikasarjojen mallintamisessa. Tämä tutkimus käyttää Markov regiiminvaihtomallia kuvaamaan yksittäisten energiafutuurien tuottojen käyttäytymistä, sillä tutkimukset osoittavat hyödykefutuurien olevan hyvin heterogeeninen omaisuusluokka. Tutkimuksen tarkoitus on selvittää, kuinka monta regiimiä tarvitaan kuvaamaan energiafutuurien tuottoja eri tuottofrekvensseillä ja mitkä ovat näiden regiimien ominaisuudet. Aiempaa tutkimusta aiheesta laajennetaan määrittämällä regiimien lukumäärä tilastotieteellisen testauksen menetelmin sekä tutkimalla energiafutuureja yksittäin; ei indeksi- tai alaindeksitasolla. Tutkimuksessa käytetään päivä-, viikko- ja kuukausiaikasarjoja Brent-raakaöljyn, WTI-raakaöljyn, maakaasun, lämmitysöljyn ja polttoöljyn tuotoista aikaväliltä 1994–2014, siltä osin kuin aineistoa on saatavilla. Likelihood ratio -testin avulla estimoidaan kaikille aikasarjoille regiimien määrä,jonka jälkeen Markov regiiminvaihtomallia hyödyntäen määritetään yksittäisten regiimientuottojakaumien ominaisuudet sekä regiimien välinen transitiomatriisi. Tulokset regiimien lukumäärän osalta osoittavat, että energiafutuurien päiväkohtaisten tuottojen aikasarjoissa regiimien lukumäärä vaihtelee kolmen ja kuuden välillä. Viikko- ja kuukausituottojen kohdalla kaikkien energiafutuurien prosesseissa regiimien lukumäärä on kaksi. Kun regiimejä on enemmän kuin kaksi, on prosessilla taipumus muodostaa regiimeistä koostuvia ryhmiä. Prosessi pysyy ryhmän sisällä yleensä pitkään, koska todennäköisyys siirtyä ryhmään kuuluvien regiimien välillä on suuri. Yksittäiset regiimit ryhmän sisällä eivät kuitenkaan ole kovin pysyviä. Näin ollen prosessi vaihtelee ryhmän sisäisten regiimien välillä tiuhaan. Regiimit, jotka eivät kuulu ryhmään, ovat yleensä pysyviä, mutta prosessi ajautuu niihin vain harvoin, sillä todennäköisyys siirtyä muista regiimeistä niihin on pieni. Tutkimuksen tulokset osoittavat myös, että prosesseissa, joita ohjaa kaksi regiimiä, nämä regiimit eivät välttämättä ole pysyvät bull- ja bear-markkinatilanteet. Tulokset osoittavat sen sijaan, että bear-markkinatilanne on energiafutuureissa selvästi vähemmän pysyvä.

Families with Children with Autism, Developmental Delay, and Typical Development: The Relationships of Parenting Self-Efficacy, Parenting Strategies, and Child Problem Behaviour

Parents of children with autism spectrum disorders (ASD) and developmental delays (DD) may experience more child problem behaviours, report lower parenting selfefficacy (PSE), and be more reactive than proactive in their parenting strategies than those who have children with typical development (TD). Differences in PSE and parenting strategies may also influence the extent to which child problem behaviours are experienced by parents who have children with ASD and DD, compared to those who have children with TD. Using a convenience sample of parents of children with ASD (n = 48), DD (n = 51), and TD (n = 72), this study examined group differences on three key variables: PSE, parenting strategies, and child problem behaviour. Results indicated that those in the DD group scored lower on PSE in preventing child problem behaviour than the ASD group. The TD group used fewer reactive strategies than the DD group, and fewer proactive strategies than both the ASD and DD groups. For the overall sample, higher reactive strategies use was found to predict higher ratings of child problem behaviour, while a greater proportion of proactive to reactive strategies use predicted lower ratings of child problem behaviour. PSE was found to moderate DD diagnosis and child problem behaviour. Implications for a behavioural (i.e., parenting strategies) or cognitive (i.e., PSE) approach to parenting are discussed.

Dynamic Performance Evaluation of Canadian Fixed-Income Funds using Markov Regime Switching Models

This thesis examines the performance of Canadian fixed-income mutual funds in the context of an unobservable market factor that affects mutual fund returns. We use various selection and timing models augmented with univariate and multivariate regime-switching structures. These models assume a joint distribution of an unobservable latent variable and fund returns. The fund sample comprises six Canadian value-weighted portfolios with different investing objectives from 1980 to 2011. These are the Canadian fixed-income funds, the Canadian inflation protected fixed-income funds, the Canadian long-term fixed-income funds, the Canadian money market funds, the Canadian short-term fixed-income funds and the high yield fixed-income funds. We find strong evidence that more than one state variable is necessary to explain the dynamics of the returns on Canadian fixed-income funds. For instance, Canadian fixed-income funds clearly show that there are two regimes that can be identified with a turning point during the mid-eighties. This structural break corresponds to an increase in the Canadian bond index from its low values in the early 1980s to its current high values. Other fixed-income funds results show latent state variables that mimic the behaviour of the general economic activity. Generally, we report that Canadian bond fund alphas are negative. In other words, fund managers do not add value through their selection abilities. We find evidence that Canadian fixed-income fund portfolio managers are successful market timers who shift portfolio weights between risky and riskless financial assets according to expected market conditions. Conversely, Canadian inflation protected funds, Canadian long-term fixed-income funds and Canadian money market funds have no market timing ability. We conclude that these managers generally do not have positive performance by actively managing their portfolios. We also report that the Canadian fixed-income fund portfolios perform asymmetrically under different economic regimes. In particular, these portfolio managers demonstrate poorer selection skills during recessions. Finally, we demonstrate that the multivariate regime-switching model is superior to univariate models given the dynamic market conditions and the correlation between fund portfolios.

The effect of perturbation warning on attention switching abilities during dual-task performance in young and older adults

This study examined whether providing an auditory warning would facilitate attention switching abilities in older adults during dual-tasking. Fifteen young and 16 older adults performed a tracking task while recovering their balance from a support surface translation. For half of the trials, an auditory warning was presented to inform participants of the upcoming translation. Performance was quantified through electromyographic (EMG) recordings of the lower limb muscles, while the ability to switch attention between tasks was determined by tracking task error. Providing warning of an upcoming loss of balance resulted in both young and older adults increasing their leg EMG activity by 10-165% (p<0.05) in preparation for the upcoming translation. However, no differences in the timing of attention switching were observed with or without the warning (p=0.424). Together, these findings suggest that providing a perturbation warning has minimal benefits in improving attention switching abilities for balance recovery in healthy older adults.

Age-Related Changes in Visual Spatial Working Memory Cognits: Frontal-Parietal EEG Coherence During Delay

This study explored changes in scalp electrophysiology across two Working Memory (WM) tasks and two age groups. Continuous electroencephalography (EEG) was recorded from 18 healthy adults (18-34 years) and 12 healthy adolescents (14-17) during the performance of two Oculomotor Delayed Response (ODR) WM tasks; (i.e. eye movements were the metric of motor response). Delay-period, EEG data in the alpha frequency was sampled from anterior and parietal scalp sites to achieve a general measure of frontal and parietal activity, respectively. Frontal-parietal, alpha coherence was calculated for each participant for each ODR-WM task. Coherence significantly decreased in adults moving across the two ODR tasks, whereas, coherence significantly increased in adolescents moving across the two ODR tasks. The effects of task in the adolescent and adult groups were large and medium, respectively. Within the limits of this study, the results provide empirical support that WM development during adolescence include complex, qualitative, change.

Bounding of switching activity in logic circuits

Thèse diffusée initialement dans le cadre d'un projet pilote des Presses de l'Université de Montréal/Centre d'édition numérique UdeM (1997-2008) avec l'autorisation de l'auteur.

Du Roman au théâtre : le motif du Graal réactualisé dans les textes de théâtre de Jean Cocteau, Julien Gracq et Jacques Roubaud/Florence Delay

Ce travail analyse les transformations du Graal en comparant sa représentation dans les romans médiévaux et dans trois textes de théâtre modernes. Le Graal, apparu dans la littérature au Moyen Âge, reste une source d'inspiration pour les écrivains modernes au point de gagner, avec le temps, un statut légendaire. L'objet de prédilection de la littérature arthurienne a évolué de façon significative dès le Moyen Âge, où il reste cependant confiné aux formes narratives. Après le « festival scénique sacré » (Bühnenweihfestspiel), Parsifal, de Wagner présenté en 1882 à Bayreuth, des œuvres plus récentes réactualisent le mythe en cherchant à l'adapter au théâtre. Jean Cocteau, en 1937, dans Les Chevaliers de la Table Ronde, présente un Graal inaccessible, immatériel. En 1948, Julien Gracq, dans Le Roi Pêcheur, inscrit le Graal dans l'opposition entre le profane et le sacré. Jacques Roubaud et Florence Delay, dans les éditions de 1977 et 2005 de Graal Théâtre, optent pour une récriture où les représentations du mythe se côtoient et se confrontent. Ces textes de théâtre modernes, où la représentation du Graal se situe au cœur du projet d'écriture, entrent ainsi en relation directe avec les œuvres médiévales. Ils s'inscrivent dans une redéfinition de l'objet qui se renouvelle sans cesse depuis Le Conte du Graal de Chrétien de Troyes. Dans les trois cas, la représentation du Graal entretient des relations contradictoires de filiation et de rupture avec la littérature arthurienne de l'époque médiévale. L'hypothèse principale de cette recherche se situe dans la problématique de la récriture comme transformation d'un héritage. Plus précisément, il sera question de comprendre comment la représentation du Graal dans les textes de théâtre pose problème et comment cette question est modulée, travaillée par les auteurs en termes rhétoriques, stylistiques et dramaturgiques. L'utilisation de la parodie, d'anachronismes et de voix dramatiques nouvelles, par exemple, permet aux auteurs modernes de revisiter et de changer le rapport à l'objet. Le Graal se redéfinit dans des contextes historiques et dans un genre distincts de leur source du Moyen Âge.