Bayesian data assimilation

This thesis addresses data assimilation, which typically refers to the estimation of the state of a physical system given a model and observations, and its application to short-term precipitation forecasting. A general introduction to data assimilation is given, both from a deterministic and' stochastic point of view. Data assimilation algorithms are reviewed, in the static case (when no dynamics are involved), then in the dynamic case. A double experiment on two non-linear models, the Lorenz 63 and the Lorenz 96 models, is run and the comparative performance of the methods is discussed in terms of quality of the assimilation, robustness "in the non-linear regime and computational time. Following the general review and analysis, data assimilation is discussed in the particular context of very short-term rainfall forecasting (nowcasting) using radar images. An extended Bayesian precipitation nowcasting model is introduced. The model is stochastic in nature and relies on the spatial decomposition of the rainfall field into rain "cells". Radar observations are assimilated using a Variational Bayesian method in which the true posterior distribution of the parameters is approximated by a more tractable distribution. The motion of the cells is captured by a 20 Gaussian process. The model is tested on two precipitation events, the first dominated by convective showers, the second by precipitation fronts. Several deterministic and probabilistic validation methods are applied and the model is shown to retain reasonable prediction skill at up to 3 hours lead time. Extensions to the model are discussed.

Modelling e-business processes:a component-based simulation approach

With new and emerging e-business technologies to transform business processes, it is important to understand how those technologies will affect the performance of a business. Will the overall business process be cheaper, faster and more accurate or will a sub-optimal change have been implemented? The use of simulation to model the behaviour of business processes is well established, and it has been applied to e-business processes to understand their performance in terms of measures such as lead-time, cost and responsiveness. This paper introduces the concept of simulation components that enable simulation models of e-business processes to be built quickly from generic e-business templates. The paper demonstrates how these components were devised, as well as the results from their application through case studies.

Using a simulation model for capacity management

A simulation model has been constructed of a valve manufacturing plant with the aim of assessing capacity requirements in response to a forecast increase in demand. The plant provides a weekly cycle of valves of varying types, based on a yearly production plan. Production control is provided by a just-in-time type system to minimise inventory. The simulation model investigates the effect on production lead time of a range of valve sequences into the plant. The study required the collection of information from a variety of sources, and a model that reflected the true capabilities of the production system. The simulation results convinced management that substantial changes were needed in order to meet demand. The case highlights the use of simulation in enabling a manager to quantify operational scenarios and thus provide a rational basis on which to take decisions on meeting performance criteria.

Fuzzy knowledge-based approach to treating uncertainty in inventory control

Inventory control in complex manufacturing environments encounters various sources of uncertainity and imprecision. This paper presents one fuzzy knowledge-based approach to solving the problem of order quantity determination, in the presence of uncertain demand, lead time and actual inventory level. Uncertain data are represented by fuzzy numbers, and vaguely defined relations between them are modeled by fuzzy if-then rules. The proposed representation and inference mechanism are verified using a large numbers of examples. The results of three representative cases are summarized. Finally a comparison between the developed fuzzy knowledge-based and traditional, probabilistic approaches is discussed.

Do manufacturing firms need informality in ERP post-implementation? A study of Chinese manufacturing sites

Purpose - Enterprise resource planning (ERP) systems are limited due to their operation around a fixed design production process and a fixed lead time to production plan and purchasing plan. The purpose of this paper is to define the concept of informality and to describe the notion of a system combining informality and ERP systems, based on empirical research from four manufacturing case studies. Design/methodology/approach - The case studies present a range of applications of ERP and are analysed in terms of the three characteristics of informality, namely, organisation structure, communication method and leadership approach. Findings - The findings suggest that systems consisting of informality in combination with ERP systems can elicit knowledge fromfrontlineworkers leading to timely improvements in the system. This is achieved by allowing users to modify work procedures or production orders, and to support collaborative working among all employees. However it was found that informality is not required for manufacturers with a relatively stable environment who can deal with uncertainty with a proactive strategy. Research limitations/implications - This study was carried out in China, with four companies as unit of analysis. Future work can help to extend this study across countries. Originality/value - The use of Four dimensions of informality that relate to manufacturers implementing ERP are defined as "technology in practice", "user flexibility", "trusted human networks" and "positive reaction to uncertainty". This is a new construct not applied before to ERP implementations.

Facets of operational performance in an emergency room (ER)

This paper, using detailed time measurements of patients complemented by interviews with hospital management and staff, examines three facets of an emergency room's (ER) operational performance: (1) effectiveness of the triage system in rationing patient treatment; (2) factors influencing ER's operational performance in general and the trade-offs in flow times, inventory levels (that is the number of patients waiting in the system), and resource utilization; (3) the impacts of potential process and staffing changes to improve the ER's performance. Specifically, the paper discusses four proposals for streamlining the patient flow: establishing designated tracks (fast track, diagnostic track), creating a holding area for certain type of patients, introducing a protocol that would reduce the load on physicians by allowing a registered nurse to order testing and treatment for some patients, and potentially and in the longer term, moving from non-ER specialist physicians to ER specialists. The paper's findings are based on analyzing the paths and flow times of close to two thousand patients in the emergency room of the Medical Center of Leeuwarden (MCL), The Netherlands. Using exploratory data analysis the paper presents generalizable findings about the impacts of various factors on ER's lead-time performance and shows how the proposals fit with well-documented process improvement theories. © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Latin America: Nuclear Capabilities, Intentions and Threat Perceptions

Three key states are relevant in considering future nuclear proliferation in Latin America: Argentina, Brazil, and Venezuela. Argentina and Brazil are critical because of their relatively advanced nuclear capabilities. For historical and geopolitical reasons, neither Argentina nor Brazil is likely to reactive nuclear weapons programs. Venezuela’s President, Hugo Chávez, has repeatedly demonstrated interest in developing a nuclear program, yet Venezuela lacks any serious nuclear expertise. Even if it had the managerial and technological capacity, the lead-time to develop an indigenous nuclear program would be measured in decades. Acquisition of nuclear technology from international sources would be difficult because members of the Nuclear Suppliers Group would insist on safeguards, and potential non-Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) suppliers are highly surveilled, risking the exposure of such a program before Venezuela could put a deterrent into place. While South American states have historically opposed nuclear weapons, their acquisition by Brazil and Argentina would lead to little more than diplomatic condemnation. Brazil and Argentina are both geopolitically satisfied powers that are deeply embedded in a regional security community. On the other hand, Venezuela under President Chávez is perceived as a revisionist power seeking a transformation of the international system. Venezuelan acquisition of nuclear weapons would be met with alarm by the United States and Colombia, and it would prompt nuclear weapons development by Brazil and possibly Argentina, more for reasons of preserving regional leadership and prestige than for fear of a Venezuelan threat.

Dynamic job quoting system for printed circuit board fabrication

This research deals with the development of a dynamic job quotation system for printed circuit board (PCB) fabrication, which can estimate the price and completion time of a job based on customer preference and current capacity of the shop floor. The primary purpose of building a dynamic quotation system is to maximize the company's profit by quoting optimum lead-time and competitive price for the day-to-day orders received from different customers and original equipment manufacturers. The system was developed using MS-Access relational database. Evaluating the output of the system it was observed that the dynamic system provided more reliable estimation of the lead-time needed for fabricating new jobs. The overall price quoted by the system was competitive with higher profit margin when compared to traditional static systems. This system would therefore provide a vital link between the job quoting and scheduling system of the firm enabling better utilization of the available resources.

Aplicação dos princípios LEAN MANAGEMENT ao projeto de moldes para injeção

Num mercado globalizado e extremamente competitivo, a escolha de uma metodologia de gestão é determinante para ditar o sucesso ou fracasso de uma empresa. O investimento em capital humano e tecnológico deve ser acompanhado por uma gestão de processos, rápida e eficaz, que direcione a organização para uma redução dos custos de um produto ou serviço. Nos últimos anos, vários autores têm demonstrado que uma das estratégias utilizadas para atingir este objetivo tem sido a aplicação da metodologia Lean Management, que ganhou reputação pelos resultados positivos alcançados. Este projeto foi elaborado em contexto industrial, no departamento de projeto da empresa Tecnifreza S.A., e teve como principal objetivo demonstrar que é possível obter uma diminuição do tempo de execução do projeto de um molde (lead time), através da aplicação dos princípios Lean Management. A metodologia utilizada assentou no registo detalhado de atividades predefinidas, ocorridas durante o projeto, baseada numa amostra constituída por nove moldes que melhor representam a realidade/tipologia produtiva da empresa. Após a análise dos dados obtidos, verifica-se que o desvio médio é de 91,7% entre o tempo de projeto inicialmente previsto pela direção e o tempo efetivo registado. Identificaram-se ainda as principais atividades que não acrescentaram valor aos projetos em estudo. Estas atividades, consideradas como desperdícios, perfazem no seu conjunto 34,6% do tempo total. Foram então sugeridas propostas de melhoria, de modo a reduzir ou eliminar estes tempos. De forma a avaliar o impacto destas propostas, foram realizadas estimativas tendo por base os dados de um molde tipo. Os resultados obtidos demonstram que, com a implementação das propostas de melhoria, são alcançados ganhos significativos na redução do lead time do projeto e consequentemente no tempo total de fabrico do molde. A antecipação na entrega dos desenhos 3D para a fabricação revela-se bastante evidente, existindo ainda um aumento no nivelamento da entrega de projetos para a fabricação. Face aos resultados apresentados verifica-se que a implementação de princípios Lean no departamento de projeto mostra-se potencialmente vantajosa, em particular com a introdução de células de trabalho e a realização do ciclo PDCA.

Effektiv lagerstyrning med AHP och tvådimensionell artikelklassificering : En fallstudie på Permobil AB, Timrå

Costs related to inventory are usually a significant amount of the company’s total assets. Despite this, companies in general don’t pay a lot of interest in it, even if the benefits from effective inventory are obvious when it comes to less tied up capital, increased customer satisfaction and better working environment. Permobil AB, Timrå is in an intense period when it comes to revenue and growth. The production unit is aiming for an increased output of 30 % in the next two years. To make this possible the company has to improve their way to distribute and handle material,The purpose of the study is to provide useful information and concrete proposals for action, so that the company can build a strategy for an effective and sustainable solution when it comes to inventory management. Alternative methods for making forecasts are suggested, in order to reach a more nuanced perception of different articles, and how they should be managed. Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) was used in order to give specially selected persons the chance to decide criteria for how the article should be valued. The criteria they agreed about were annual volume value, lead time, frequency rate and purchase price. The other method that was proposed was a two-dimensional model where annual volume value and frequency was the criteria that specified in which class an article should be placed. Both methods resulted in significant changes in comparison to the current solution. For the spare part inventory different forecast methods were tested and compared with the current solution. It turned out that the current forecast method performed worse than both moving average and exponential smoothing with trend. The small sample of ten random articles is not big enough to reject the current solution, but still the result is a reason enough, for the company to control the quality of the forecasts.

Application of WRF-Chem to Forecasting PM10 Concentration Over Poland

The meteorological and chemical transport model WRF-Chem was implemented to forecast PM10 concentrations over Poland. WRF-Chem version 3.5 was configured with three one-way nested domains using the GFS meteorological data and the TNO MACC II emissions. The 48 hour forecasts were run for each day of the winter and summer period of 2014 and there is only a small decrease in model performance for winter with respect to forecast lead time. The model in general captures the variability in observed PM10 concentrations for most of the stations. However, for some locations and specific episodes, the model performance is poor and the results cannot yet be used by official authorities. We argue that a higher resolution sector-based emission data will be helpful for this analysis in connection with a focus on planetary boundary layer processes in WRF-Chem and their impact on the initial distribution of emissions on both time and space.

Leanin soveltaminen haavanhoitotuotteiden valmistuksen läpimenoaikojen lyhentämiseksi

Mölnlycke Health Care valmistaa kertakäyttöisiä leikkaussali- ja haavanhoitotuotteita. Yritys on saavuttanut arvostetun aseman markkinoilla ja pitääkseen asemansa sen tulee koko ajan kehittää toimintaansa. Keväällä 2016 yritys aloitti leanin implementoinnin, minkä vuoksi nykytilanteen kartoittaminen ja sen pohjalta tuotannon kehittäminen tuli ajankohtaiseksi. Diplomityössä selvitettiin Mölnlycke Health Care Oy:lle sopiva nykytilan kartoitusmenetelmä. Sopivaksi menetelmäksi osoittautui arvovirtakuvaus. Nykytilanteen kartoitus tehtiin yrityksen kannalta tärkeälle tuoteperheelle, joka tässä tapauksessa oli edistyksellinen haavanhoitotuote ja haavasidos Mepilex Border. Nykytilanteen kartoitus antoi tuotteen läpimenoajaksi 100 päivää varaston riitto huomioituna. Tästä ajasta kuitenkin suurin osa oli hukkaa, jota pystytään poistamaan. Nykytilanteesta tehtiin kuva, jonka pohjalta pystyttiin havainnoimaan kehittävät kohteet ja tekemään ehdotukset kohteiden parantamiseksi. Kehitysehdotusten tavoitteena oli tuoda yritystä lähemmäs Lean-filosofiaa ja auttaa pitämään yllä jatkuvan parantamisen kulttuuria.

Stratégie de gestion de stocks dans un réseau collaboratif

Le contenu de ce mémoire traite du problème de gestion des stocks dans un réseau constitué de plusieurs sites de stockage de produits. Chaque site i gère son stock de manière autonome pour satisfaire une demande déterministe sur un horizon donné. Un stock maximum Si est tenu à chaque site i. Lorsque le point de commande si est atteint, une commande de taille Qi est placée au centre de distribution qui alimente tous les sites. Qi est telle que Qi = Si - si. La quantité Qi est livrée dans un délai connu Li. Si, à un instant donné, la demande Di au site i excède la quantité en main, le site i fait appel à un ou à plusieurs autres sites du réseau pour le transfert d’une quantité Xji (j = 1, 2, …, n). Ce transfert s’effectue selon un certain nombre de règles de jeu qui tiennent compte des coûts de transfert, de stockage, d’approvisionnement et de pénurie. Ce mémoire examine six principales contributions publiées dans la littérature pour évaluer les contributions d’un modèle collaboratif aux performances, en termes de coûts et de niveau de service, de chaque site du réseau. Cette investigation se limite à une configuration du réseau à deux échelons : un entrepôt central et n (n > 2) sites de stockage. Le cas des pièces de rechange, caractérisé par une demande aléatoire, est examiné dans trois chapitres de ce mémoire. Une autre application de ces stratégies à la collaboration entre n centres hospitaliers (n > 2) est également examinée dans ce travail.

Melhoria de uma linha de montagem pela aplicação da filosofia Lean

Este relatório descreve o desenvolvimento de um projecto de melhoria numa linha de montagem de autocarros, numa das empresas do Grupo Salvador Caetano: a CaetanoBus. Sustentado teoricamente pelos pressupostos da filosofia lean, o projecto visou sobretudo uma organização mais eficiente dos recursos humanos e materiais, de modo a alcançar uma redução do lead time e, por conseguinte, uma diminuição simultânea de desperdícios associados ao processo e do número de colaboradores afectos a determinado modelo de autocarro. A metodologia adoptada envolveu fundamentalmente operações relativas ao estudo de tempos, balanceamento e estabelecimento de standard works. Por outro lado, outros conceitos associados ao lean, como kaizen e yamazum chart, integraram igualmente a linha estruturante de pensamento que orientou o campo das acções. Um plano de melhorias baseado no uso das ferramentas lean sugere ganhos produtivos, muito embora o término da produção do modelo, alvo de análise, tivesse impedido a sua confirmação prática nesta matéria.

Virtual-Build-to-Order as a Mass Customization Order Fulfilment Model

Virtual-build-to-order (VBTO) is a form of order fulfilment system in which the producer has the ability to search across the entire pipeline of finished stock, products in production and those in the production plan, in order to find the best product for a customer. It is a system design that is attractive to Mass Customizers, such as those in the automotive sector, whose manufacturing lead time exceeds their customers' tolerable waiting times, and for whom the holding of partly-finished stocks at a fixed decoupling point is unattractive or unworkable. This paper describes and develops the operational concepts that underpin VBTO, in particular the concepts of reconfiguration flexibility and customer aversion to waiting. Reconfiguration is the process of changing a product's specification at any point along the order fulfilment pipeline. The extent to which an order fulfilment system is flexible or inflexible reveals itself in the reconfiguration cost curve, of which there are four basic types. The operational features of the generic VBTO system are described and simulation is used to study its behaviour and performance. The concepts of reconfiguration flexibility and floating decoupling point are introduced and discussed.