Ionospheric measurements of relative coronal brightness during the total solar eclipses of 11 August, 1999 and 9 July, 1945

Swept-frequency (1-10 MHz) ionosonde measurements were made at Helston, Cornwall (50 degrees 06'N, 5 degrees 18'W) during the total solar eclipse on August 11, 1999. Soundings were made every three minutes. We present a method for estimating the percentage of the ionising solar radiation which remains unobscured at any time during the eclipse by comparing the variation of the ionospheric E-layer with the behaviour of the layer during a control day. Application to the ionosonde date for II August, 1999, shows that the flux of solar ionising radiation fell to a minimum of 25 +/- 2% of the value before and after the eclipse. For comparison, the same technique was also applied to measurements made during the total solar eclipse of 9 July, 1945, at Sormjole (63 degrees 68'N, 20 degrees 20'E) and yielded a corresponding minimum of 16 +/- 2%. Therefore the method can detect variations in the fraction of solar emissions that originate from the unobscured corona and chromosphere. We discuss the differences between these two eclipses in terms of the nature of the eclipse, short-term fluctuations, the sunspot cycle and the recently-discovered long-term change in the coronal magnetic field.

Comment on “B_y fluctuations in the magnetosheath and azimuthal flow velocity transients in the dayside ionosphere” by Newell and Sibeck

Newell and Sibeck [1993] (hereafter N&S) list some objections to our interpretation of dayside auroral transients and associated azimuthal flow bursts in terms of pulsed reconnection [e.g. Lockwood et al., 1989; 1993a]. They present what they term an “apparently overlooked” alternative explanation in terms of steady reconnection and fluctuations in the magnitude of the By component of the magnetosheath field. The objections of N&S can all be answered by reference to our previous publications and their alternative explanation was only “overlooked” in so far as it fails to explain the observations. Here we discuss just some of the reasons why the objections of N&S are invalid, and then give reasons why the events are not simply due to magnetosheath |By| changes.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 3. Effects of regression procedures on the calibration of historic sunspot data

We use sunspot group observations from the Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) to investigate the effects of intercalibrating data from observers with different visual acuities. The tests are made by counting the number of groups RB above a variable cut-off threshold of observed total whole-spot area (uncorrected for foreshortening) to simulate what a lower acuity observer would have seen. The synthesised annual means of RB are then re-scaled to the full observed RGO group number RA using a variety of regression techniques. It is found that a very high correlation between RA and RB (rAB > 0.98) does not prevent large errors in the intercalibration (for example sunspot maximum values can be over 30 % too large even for such levels of rAB). In generating the backbone sunspot number (RBB), Svalgaard and Schatten (2015, this issue) force regression fits to pass through the scatter plot origin which generates unreliable fits (the residuals do not form a normal distribution) and causes sunspot cycle amplitudes to be exaggerated in the intercalibrated data. It is demonstrated that the use of Quantile-Quantile (“Q  Q”) plots to test for a normal distribution is a useful indicator of erroneous and misleading regression fits. Ordinary least squares linear fits, not forced to pass through the origin, are sometimes reliable (although the optimum method used is shown to be different when matching peak and average sunspot group numbers). However, other fits are only reliable if non-linear regression is used. From these results it is entirely possible that the inflation of solar cycle amplitudes in the backbone group sunspot number as one goes back in time, relative to related solar-terrestrial parameters, is entirely caused by the use of inappropriate and non-robust regression techniques to calibrate the sunspot data.

A new calibrated sunspot group series since 1749: statistics of active day fractions

Although the sunspot-number series have existed since the mid-19th century, they are still the subject of intense debate, with the largest uncertainty being related to the "calibration" of the visual acuity of individual observers in the past. Daisy-chain regression methods are applied to inter-calibrate the observers which may lead to significant bias and error accumulation. Here we present a novel method to calibrate the visual acuity of the key observers to the reference data set of Royal Greenwich Observatory sunspot groups for the period 1900-1976, using the statistics of the active-day fraction. For each observer we independently evaluate their observational thresholds [S_S] defined such that the observer is assumed to miss all of the groups with an area smaller than S_S and report all the groups larger than S_S. Next, using a Monte-Carlo method we construct, from the reference data set, a correction matrix for each observer. The correction matrices are significantly non-linear and cannot be approximated by a linear regression or proportionality. We emphasize that corrections based on a linear proportionality between annually averaged data lead to serious biases and distortions of the data. The correction matrices are applied to the original sunspot group records for each day, and finally the composite corrected series is produced for the period since 1748. The corrected series displays secular minima around 1800 (Dalton minimum) and 1900 (Gleissberg minimum), as well as the Modern grand maximum of activity in the second half of the 20th century. The uniqueness of the grand maximum is confirmed for the last 250 years. It is shown that the adoption of a linear relationship between the data of Wolf and Wolfer results in grossly inflated group numbers in the 18th and 19th centuries in some reconstructions.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 1. Using ionosonde data

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval.

The medieval climate anomaly and Byzantium: a review of the evidence on climatic fluctuations, economic performance and societal change

At the beginning of the Medieval Climate Anomaly, in the ninth and tenth century, the medieval eastern Roman empire, more usually known as Byzantium, was recovering from its early medieval crisis and experiencing favourable climatic conditions for the agricultural and demographic growth. Although in the Balkans and Anatolia such favourable climate conditions were prevalent during the eleventh century, parts of the imperial territories were facing significant challenges as a result of external political/military pressure. The apogee of medieval Byzantine socio-economic development, around AD 1150, coincides with a period of adverse climatic conditions for its economy, so it becomes obvious that the winter dryness and high climate variability at this time did not hinder Byzantine society and economy from achieving that level of expansion. Soon after this peak, towards the end of the twelfth century, the populations of the Byzantine world were experiencing unusual climatic conditions with marked dryness and cooler phases. The weakened Byzantine socio-political system must have contributed to the events leading to the fall of Constantinople in AD 1204 and the sack of the city. The final collapse of the Byzantine political control over western Anatolia took place half century later, thus contemporaneous with the strong cooling effect after a tropical volcanic eruption in AD 1257. We suggest that, regardless of a range of other influential factors, climate change was also an important contributing factor to the socio-economic changes that took place in Byzantium during the Medieval Climate Anomaly. Crucially, therefore, while the relatively sophisticated and complex Byzantine society was certainly influenced by climatic conditions, and while it nevertheless displayed a significant degree of resilience, external pressures as well as tensions within the Byzantine society more broadly contributed to an increasing vulnerability in respect of climate impacts. Our interdisciplinary analysis is based on all available sources of information on the climate and society of Byzantium, that is textual (documentary), archaeological, environmental, climate and climate model-based evidence about the nature and extent of climate variability in the eastern Mediterranean. The key challenge was, therefore, to assess the relative influence to be ascribed to climate variability and change on the one hand, and on the other to the anthropogenic factors in the evolution of Byzantine state and society (such as invasions, changes in international or regional market demand and patterns of production and consumption, etc.). The focus of this interdisciplinary

Note on ""Continuous matter creation and the acceleration of the universe: the growth of density fluctuations""

Recently, de Roany and Pacheco (Gen Relativ Gravit, doi:10.1007/s10714-010-1069-2) performed a Newtonian analysis on the evolution of perturbations for a class of relativistic cosmological models with Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM) proposed by the present authors (Lima et al. in JCAP 1011:027, 2010). In this note we demonstrate that the basic equations adopted in their work do not recover the specific (unperturbed) CCDM model. Unlike to what happens in the original CCDM cosmology, their basic conclusions refer to a decelerating cosmological model in which there is no transition from a decelerating to an accelerating regime as required by SNe type Ia and complementary observations.

Leaf antioxidant fluctuations and growth responses in saplings of Caesalpinia echinata Lam. (brazilwood) under an urban stressing environment

We intended to establish how efficient the leaf antioxidant responses of C. echinata are against oxidative environmental conditions observed in an urban environment and their relations to growth and biomass parameters. Plants were grown for 15 months in four sites: Congonhas and Pinheiros, affected by pollutants from vehicular emissions; Ibirapuera, affected by high O(3) concentrations; and a greenhouse with filtered air. Fifteen plants were quarterly removed from each site for analysis of antioxidants, growth and biomass. Plants growing in polluted sites showed alterations in their antioxidants. They were shorter, had thicker stems and produced less leaf biomass than plants maintained under filtered air. The fluctuations in the levels of antioxidants were significantly influenced by combined effects of climatic and pollution variables. The higher were the antioxidant responses and the concentrations of pollutant markers of air contamination in each site the slower were the growth and biomass production. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Recurrence quantification analysis of electrostatic fluctuations in fusion plasmas

We have investigated plasma turbulence at the edge of a tokamak plasma using data from electrostatic potential fluctuations measured in the Brazilian tokamak TCABR. Recurrence quantification analysis has been used to provide diagnostics of the deterministic content of the series. We have focused our analysis on the radial dependence of potential fluctuations and their characterization by recurrence-based diagnostics. Our main result is that the deterministic content of the experimental signals is most pronounced at the external part of the plasma column just before the plasma radius. Since the chaoticity of the signals follows the same trend, we have concluded that the electrostatic plasma turbulence at the tokamak plasma edge can be partially explained by means of a deterministic nonlinear system. (C) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

NeXSPheRIO results on elliptic-flow fluctuations at RHIC

By using the NeXSPheRIO code, we study the elliptic-flow fluctuations in Au + Au collisions at 200 A GeV. It is shown that, by fixing the parameters of the model to correctly reproduce the charged pseudorapidity and the transverse-momentum distributions, reasonable agreement of < v(2)> with data is obtained, both as function of pseudorapidity as well as of transverse momentum, for charged particles. Our results on elliptic-flow fluctuations are in good agreement with the recently measured data on experiments.

Fluctuations of the Stokes and anti-Stokes surface-enhanced resonance Raman scattering intensities in an electrochemical environment

Stokes and anti-Stokes SERRS intensity fluctuations were observed from a roughened silver electrode immersed in diluted solutions of Brilliant Green (BG), a behaviour linked to single-molecule events. The distributions of the anti-Stokes to Stokes ratios were obtained and their shape showed a strong dependence on the applied potential.

Electrochemical Control of the Time-Dependent Intensity Fluctuations in Surface-Enhanced Raman Scattering (SERS)

Time-dependent fluctuations in surface-enhanced Raman scattering (SERS) intensities were recorded from a roughened silver electrode immersed in diluted solutions of rhodamine 6G (R6G) and congo red (CR). These fluctuations were attributed to a small number of SERS-active molecules probing regions of extremely high electromagnetic field (hot spots) at the nanostructured surface. The time-dependent distribution of SERS intensities followed a tailed statistics at certain applied potentials, which has been linked to single-molecule dynamics. The shape of the distribution was reversibly tuned by the applied voltage. Mixtures of both dyes, R6G and CR, at low concentrations were also investigated. Since R6G is a cationic dye and CR is an anionic dye, the statistics of the SERS intensity distribution of either dye in a mixture were independently controlled by adjusting the applied potential. The potential-controlled distribution of SERS intensities was interpreted by considering the modulation of the surface coverage of the adsorbed dye by the interfacial electric field. This interpretation was supported by a two-dimensional Monte Carlo simulation that took into account the time evolution of the surface configuration of the adsorbed species and their probability to populate a hypothetical hot spot. The potential-controlled SERS dynamics reported here is a first step toward the spectroelectrochemical investigation of redox processes at the single-molecule level by SERS.

Trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations: Evidence from Sweden

An overview of the theoretical literature for the last two decades suggests that there is no clear-cut relationship one can pin down between exchange rate volatility and trade flows. Analytical results are based on specific assumptions and only hold in certain cases. Especially, the impact of exchange rate volatility on export and import activity investigated separately leads also to dissimilar conclusions among countries studied. The general presumption is that an increase in exchange rate volatility will have an adverse effect on trade flows and consequently, the overall heath of the world economy. However, neither theoretical models nor empirical studies provide us with a definitive answer, leaving obtained results highly ambiguous and inconsistent (Baum and Caglayan, 2006). We purposed to empirically investigate trade effects of exchange rate fluctuations in Sweden from the perspective of export and import in this research. The data comprises period from January 1993 to December 2006, where export and import volumes are considered from the point of their determinants, including exchange rate volatility, which has been measured through EGARCH model. The results for the case of Sweden show that short run dynamics of volatility negatively associated with both export and import, whereas considered from the case of previous period volatility it exhibits positive relationship. These results are consistent with the most findings of prior studies, where the relationship remained ambiguous.

A home environment test battery for status assessment in patients with motor fluctuations

Background and aims Evaluating status in patients with motor fluctuations is complex and occasional observations/measurements do not give an adequate picture as to the time spent in different states. We developed a test battery to assess advanced Parkinson patients' status consisting of diary assessments and motor tests. This battery was constructed and implemented on a handheld computer with built-in mobile communication. In fluctuating patients, it should typically be used several times daily in the home environment, over periods of about one week. The aim of this battery is to provide status information in order to evaluate treatment effects in clinical practice and research, follow up treatments and disease progression and predict outcome to optimize treatment strategy. Methods Selection of diary questions was based on a previous study with Duodopa® (DIREQT). Tapping tests (with and without visual cueing) and a spiral drawing test were added. Rapid prototyping was used in development of the user interface. An evaluation with two pilot patients was performed before and after receiving new treatments for advanced disease (one received Duodopa® and one received DBS). Speed and proportion missed taps were calculated for the tapping tests and entropy of the radial drawing velocity was calculated for the spiral tests. Test variables were evaluated using non-parametric statistics. Results Post-treatment improvement was detected in both patients in many of the test variables. Conclusions Although validation work remains, preliminary results are promising and the test battery is currently being evaluated in a long-term health economics study with Duodopa® (DAPHNE).