Maximum likelihood estimation of mortality and growth with individual variability from multiple length-frequency data

We consider estimation of mortality rates and growth parameters from length-frequency data of a fish stock and derive the underlying length distribution of the population and the catch when there is individual variability in the von Bertalanffy growth parameter L-infinity. The model is flexible enough to accommodate 1) any recruitment pattern as a function of both time and length, 2) length-specific selectivity, and 3) varying fishing effort over time. The maximum likelihood method gives consistent estimates, provided the underlying distribution for individual variation in growth is correctly specified. Simulation results indicate that our method is reasonably robust to violations in the assumptions. The method is applied to tiger prawn data (Penaeus semisulcatus) to obtain estimates of natural and fishing mortality.

Population structure, mortality and growth of Pinna nobilis Linnaeus, 1758 (Mollusca, Bivalvia) at different depths in Moraira bay (Alicante, Western Mediterranean)

An investigation to characterize the causes of Pinna nobilis population structure in Moraira bay (Western Mediterranean) was developed. Individuals of two areas of the same Posidonia meadow, located at different depths (A1, -13 and A2, -6 m), were inventoried, tagged, their positions accurately recorded and monitored from July 1997 to July 2002. On each area, different aspects of population demography were studied (i.e. spatial distribution, size structure, displacement evidences, mortality, growth and shell orientation). A comparison between both groups of individuals was carried out, finding important differences between them. In A1, the individuals were more aggregated and mean and maximum size were higher (A1, 10.3 and A2, 6 individuals/100 m(2); A1, x = 47.2 +/- 9.9; A2, x = 29.8 +/- 7.4 cm, P < 0.001, respectively). In A2, growth rate and mortality were higher, the latter concentrated on the largest individuals, in contrast to A1, where the smallest individuals had the higher mortality rate [A1, L = 56.03(1 - e(-0.17t)); A2, L = 37.59(1 - e(-0.40t)), P < 0.001; mean annual mortality A1: 32 dead individuals out of 135, 23.7% and A2: 16 dead individuals out of 36, 44.4%, and total mortality coefficients (z), z(A1(-30)) = 0.28, z(A1(31-45)) = 0.05, z(A1(46-)) = 0.08; z(A2(-30)) = 0.15, z(A2(31-45)) = 0.25]. A common shell orientation N-S, coincident with the maximum shore exposure, was observed in A2. Spatial distribution in both areas showed not enough evidence to discard a random distribution of the individuals, despite the greater aggregation on the deeper area (A1) (A1, chi(2) = 0.41, df = 3, P > 0.5, A2, chi(2)= 0.98, df = 2 and 0.3 < P < 0.5). The obtained results have demonstrated that the depth-related size segregation usually shown by P. nobilis is mainly caused by differences in mortality and growth among individuals located at different depths, rather than by the active displacement of individuals previously reported in the literature. Furthermore, dwarf individuals are observed in shallower levels and as a consequence, the relationship between size and age are not comparable even among groups of individuals inhabiting the same meadow at different depths. The final causes of the differences on mortality and growth are also discussed.

A maximum-likelihood method for estimating natural mortality and catchability coefficient from catch-and-effort data

A simple stochastic model of a fish population subject to natural and fishing mortalities is described. The fishing effort is assumed to vary over different periods but to be constant within each period. A maximum-likelihood approach is developed for estimating natural mortality (M) and the catchability coefficient (q) simultaneously from catch-and-effort data. If there is not enough contrast in the data to provide reliable estimates of both M and q, as is often the case in practice, the method can be used to obtain the best possible values of q for a range of possible values of M. These techniques are illustrated with tiger prawn (Penaeus semisulcatus) data from the Northern Prawn Fishery of Australia.

On global summer monsoonal drought mechanics

It is shown that within the framework of a linear five-level quasi-geostrophic steady state global model the middle latitude systems can always have significant influence on the Asian summer monsoonal system through the lower tropospheric monsoonal westerly window region around 80°E. It is hypothesized that quasistationarity of the middle latitude longwave systems results in stronger teleconnections through this window and the consequent monsoon breaks when the phase is right.

Prospects for predicting insect mortality in relation to changing phosphine concentrations

Typically, in bag-stack or silo fumigations the concentration of phosphine is not constant, and yet most of what is known about phosphine efficacy against grain insects comes from studies with fixed concentrations. Indeed, where changing concentration experiments have been performed, researchers have been unable to explain observed efficacy on the basis of data from fixed concentrations. The ability to predict insect mortality in relation to changing phosphine concentrations would facilitate the development of effective fumigation protocols. In this paper, we explore the prospects for making such predictions. After reviewing published and new results, we conclude that the commonly used concentration x time (Ct) product is unreliable for this purpose. New results, for a strongly resistant strain of Rhyzopertha dominica from Australia, suggest that the relationship Cnt = k may be useful for predicting mortality of this type of insect in changing concentrations. However, in the case of a strain of Sitophilus oryzae with a type of resistance common in Australian S. oryzae, the relationship Cnt = k proved to be less reliable.

Predicting mortality of phosphine-resistant adults of Sitophilus oryzae (L) (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) in relation to changing phosphine concentration

Adults of a phosphine-resistant strain of Sitophilus oryzae (L) were exposed to constant phosphine concentrations of 0.0035-0.9 mg litre(-1) for periods of between 20 and 168 h at 25 °C, and the effects of time and concentration on mortality were quantified. Adults were also exposed to a series of treatments lasting 48, 72 or 168 h at 25 °C, during which the concentration of phosphine was varied. The aim of this study was to determine whether equations from experiments using constant concentrations could be used to predict the efficacy of changing phosphine concentrations against adults of S oryzae. A probit plane without interaction, in which the logarithms of time (t) and concentration (C) were variables, described the effects of concentration and time on mortality in experiments with constant concentrations. A derived equation of the form C^nt = k gave excellent predictions of toxicity when applied to data from changing concentration experiments. The results suggest that for resistant S oryzae adults there is nothing inherently different between constant and changing concentration regimes, and that data collected from fixed concentrations can be used to develop equations for predicting mortality in fumigations in which phosphine concentration changes. This approach could simplify the prediction of efficacy of typical fumigations in which concentrations tend to rise and then fall over a period of days.

Milk Production Responses to Oversowing a Portion of Tropical Grass Pasture with Summer Crop Legumes on Sub-tropical Dairy Farms

Northern Australian dairy farms have a large area of tropical dryland grass pasture available for use as summer pastures. Late summer-autumn in sub-tropical Australia is traditionally a difficult period in which to produce milk because of the decline in both quality and quantity of tropical grasses (Ehrlich et al. 1994). Options to improve autumn feed on dairy farms include introducing forage crops and conservation, increasing concentrate feeding and introducing legumes. Perennial tropical legumes have not been successful at this time of year because of their inability to sustain stocking rates above one cow/ha. This experiment, conducted on farms, was designed to test if annual crop legumes could be successfully oversown into tropical grass areas using minimal till methods to measure the subsequent impact on milk production on farms. Previous experiments using annual legumes in plots at Mutdapilly Research Station had demonstrated yields up to 10 t/ha can be achieved using annual tropical legumes with protein levels as high as 20% in the whole legume plant. Animal production for a consuming world : proceedings of 9th Congress of the Asian-Australasian Association of Animal Production Societies [AAAP] and 23rd Biennial Conference of the Australian Society of Animal Production [ASAP] and 17th Annual Symposium of the University of Sydney, Dairy Research Foundation, [DRF]. 2-7 July 2000, Sydney, Australia.

Consanguinity, fecundity and post-natal mortality in Karnataka, South India

The degree of consanguinity of the progeny, the number of live-borns and number of living children were determined in 3350 marriages in Bangalore, Karnataka. The coefficient of inbreeding (F) was 0•02308, higher than in comparable, urban populations in other South Indian states. No significant differences were found between the consanguineous and non-consanguineous groups in numbers of live-born or living children nor was there any consanguinity-related trend with respect to these parameters.

Impact of African orography and the Indian summer monsoon on the low-level Somali jet

The low-level jet (LLJ) over the Indian region, which is most prominent during the monsoon (June-September) season, has been studied with a general circulation model (GCM). The role of African orography in modulating this jet is the focus of this article. The presence o African orography intensifies the cross-equatorial flow. Contrary to previous modelling Studies we find that cross-equatorial flow occurs even in the absence of African orography, though this flow is muc weaker even when the Indian monsoon rainfall is high. However, the location of the meridional jet near the equator in the Somali region is linked to the Indian monsoon rainfall rather than to the land-sea contrast over Somalia. Also, the presence of African orography, and not the strength of the Indian monsoon, controls the vertical extent of the equatorial meridional wind. In an aqua-planet simulation, the cross-equatorial flow occurs about 30 to the west of the rainfall maximum. Thus, the longitudinal location of the equatorial Somali jet depends upon the occurrence of monsoon heating, but the vertical structure of the jet is on account of the western boundary current in the atmosphere due to the East African highlands under the influence of monsoonal heat source.

Modelling Mortality and Reproduction Rates for Management of Sheep Flocks in Northern Australia

By quantifying the effects of climatic variability in the sheep grazing lands of north western and western Queensland, the key biological rates of mortality and reproduction can be predicted for sheep. These rates are essential components of a decision support package which can prove a useful management tool for producers, especially if they can easily obtain the necessary predictors. When the sub-models of the GRAZPLAN ruminant biology process model were re-parameterised from Queensland data along with an empirical equation predicting the probability of ewes mating added, the process model predicted the probability of pregnancy well (86% variation explained). Predicting mortality from GRAZPLAN was less successful but an empirical equation based on relative condition of the animal (a measure based on liveweight), pregnancy status and age explained 78% of the variation in mortalities. A crucial predictor in these models was liveweight which is not often recorded on producer properties. Empirical models based on climatic and pasture conditions estimated from the pasture production model GRASP, predicted marking and mortality rates for Mitchell grass (Astrebla sp.) pastures (81% and 63% of the variation explained). These prediction equations were tested against independent data from producer properties and the model successfully validated for Mitchell grass communities.

Influence of nitrogen based supplements on live weight, fertility and mortality of heifers grazing dry season native pasture

Supplements containing urea or biuret were fed in the dry season to yearling and two year old pregnant heifers grazing native spear grass pastures in north Queensland. Liveweight change and survival during the dry season and fertility in the following year were measured. In the first experiment during a relatively favourable dry season, supplementation significantly (P<0.01) reduced liveweight loss in yearling heifers (5 vs. 32 kg). In the following year during a drought, supplement significantly (P<.01) reduced liveweight loss in yearling heifers (32 vs. 41 kg) and significantly (P <0.01) reduced mortalities (23.5% vs. 5.2%) in pregnant and lactating heifers. The supplement had no significant effect on subsequent fertility in either experiment. 14th Biennial Conference.

Minimising mortality in field and pot experiments using Heteronyx piceus Blanchard (Coleoptera: Scarabaeidae) eggs and larvae

The establishment of experimental populations of scarab larvae using eggs and early instar larvae has proven to be difficult for many researchers. Despite this, little work has been published examining ways to optimise establishment under artificial conditions. In this experiment, we examined the effect of shade and irrigation on the establishment of Heteronyx piceus Blanchard larvae introduced into pots as eggs and first-, second- and third-instar larvae to optimise artificial infestation techniques. The most important factor affecting larval establishment was the life stage introduced. Establishment of eggs and first instars was very low, with only 21% of eggs and 11% of first-instar larvae establishing. In contrast, 82% of second-instar larvae and 84% of third-instar larvae established successfully. The addition of shade marginally improved overall survival from 45% in the unshaded pots to 53% in the shaded pots. However, most of this increase was in the eggs and first instars. Irrigation did not improve survival. These results suggest that when introducing scarab larvae to field or pot experiments, second- or thirdinstar larvae should be used to maximise establishment. The provision of shade and supplementary irrigation is optional.

Association of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings with a rapid rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouse soils

A study was undertaken from 2004 to 2007 to investigate factors associated with decreased efficacy of metalaxyl to manage damping-off of cucumber in Oman. A survey over six growing seasons showed that growers lost up to 14.6% of seedlings following application of metalaxyl. No resistance to metalaxyl was found among Pythium isolates. Damping-off disease in the surveyed greenhouses followed two patterns. In most (69%) greenhouses, seedling mortality was found to occur shortly after transplanting and decrease thereafter (Phase-I). However, a second phase of seedling mortality (Phase-II) appeared 9-14 d after transplanting in about 31% of the surveyed greenhouses. Analysis of the rate of biodegradation of metalaxyl in six greenhouses indicated a significant increase in the rate of metalaxyl biodegradation in greenhouses, which encountered Phase-II damping-off. The half-life of metalaxyl dropped from 93 d in soil, which received no previous metalaxyl treatment to 14 d in soil, which received metalaxyl for eight consecutive seasons, indicating an enhanced rate of metalaxyl biodegradation after repeated use. Multiple applications of metalaxyl helped reduce the appearance of Phase-II damping-off. This appears to be the first report of rapid biodegradation of metalaxyl in greenhouse soils and the first report of its association with appearance of a second phase of mortality in cucumber seedlings.

Effect of microwave radiation on seed mortality of rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora R.Br.), parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorous L.) and bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.)

A trial was undertaken to evaluate the effect of microwaves on seed mortality of three weed species. Seeds of rubber vine (Cryptostegia grandiflora R.Br.), parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorous L.) and bellyache bush (Jatropha gossypiifolia L.) were buried at six depths (0, 2.5, 5, 10, 20 and 40 cm) in coarse sand maintained at one of two moisture levels, oven dry or wet (field capacity), and then subjected to one of five microwave radiation durations of (0, 2, 4, 8 and 16 min). Significant interactions between soil moisture level, microwave radiation duration, seed burial depth and species were detected for mortality of seeds of all three species. Maximum seed mortality of rubber vine (88%), parthenium (67%) and bellyache bush (94%) occurred in wet soil irradiated for 16 min. Maximum seed mortality of rubber vine and bellyache bush seeds occurred in seeds buried at 2.5 cm depth whereas that of parthenium occurred in seeds buried at 10 cm depth. Maximum soil temperatures of 114.1 and 87.5°C in dry and wet soil respectively occurred at 2.5 cm depth following 16 min irradiation. Irrespective of the greater soil temperatures recorded in dry soil, irradiating seeds in wet soil generally increased seed mortality 2.9-fold compared with dry soil. Moisture content of wet soil averaged 5.7% compared with 0.1% for dry soil. Results suggest that microwave radiation has the potential to kill seeds located in the soil seed bank. However, many factors, including weed species susceptibility, determine the effectiveness of microwave radiation on buried seeds. Microwave radiation may be an alternative to conventional methods at rapidly depleting soil seed banks in the field, particularly in relatively wet soils that contain long lived weed seeds.