Effects of winds, tides and storm surges on ocean surface waves in the Sea of Japan

Ocean surface waves are strongly forced by high wind conditions associated with winter storms in the Sea of Japan. They are also modulated by tides and storm surges. The effects of the variability in surface wind forcing, tides and storm surges on the waves are investigated using a wave model, a high-resolution atmospheric mesoscale model and a hydrodynamic ocean circulation model. Five month-long wave model simulations are inducted to examine the sensitivity of ocean waves to various wind forcing fields, tides and storm surges during January 1997. Compared with observed mean wave parameters, results indicate that the high frequency variability in the surface wind filed has very great effect on wave simulation. Tides and storm surges have a significant impact on the waves in nearshores of the Tsushima-kaihyo, but not for other regions in the Sea of Japan. High spatial and temporal resolution and good quality surface wind products will be crucial for the prediction of surface waves in the JES and other marginal seas, especially near the coastal regions.

中低纬度变化磁场的暴时特征研究

Magnetic storm is a kind of severe disturbances in the whole solar-earth electromagnetic space. It has significant effects on communication, electric power, oil transport pipe and human activities in space. Therefore, magnetic storms are worth for applications systems, not only being a favorable issue for scientists. In this paper, the spatial and temporal distributions of the magnetic fields produced by the magnetosphere-ionosphere current systems during storms are studied. Four parts are included in this paper decomposion of different disturbances with different origins, topological structure of the ring current, the asymmetric characteristics of the ring current, and the statistic peculiarities of the day-to-day variability (DTD) of Sq. 1 The decomposition of magnetic disturbances at mid-low latitudes and its evolutions during storms Transient variations in the geomagnetic field recorded at mid-low latitudes mainly include the storm-time variation (Dst), solar quiet daily variation (Sq) and disturbance daily variation (SD). With the data of the geomagnetic meridian chain observatories in China, 25 storms during the period of 1997 to 1999 have been analyzed. According to the features of different variations, a method of “three-steps decomposition” is developed by using the method of Natural Orthogonal Components (NOC), Correlation Analysis and Fourier Analysis to separate those three components in turn. The results show that, the first eigenmode by the MNOC clearly describing the special distribution and temporal evolution of storm-time variation, in addition, Correlation Analysis and Fourier Analysis offer a useful method to extract the Sq and SD variations. The latitudinal shift of the Sq current focus seems to be the principal reason of the day-to-day variaitons in the daily range of Sq. The magnitude of SD reaches a maximum during the main phase, and then gradually decreases. 2 The topology structure of the ring current during storms Both the mechanism of the ring current and the geomagnetic data suggest that the central plane of the ring current is declining to the geomagnetic equator plane with a tilt angle δ. Using the H and Z component data at two stations in a meridian chain, we deduce a new parameter describing the invariable peculiarity of different storms. Then the δ angle is calculated by using the data from a meridian chain and tested with the ERC model. Finally the deduced tilt angles are used to modify Dst index. 3 The asymmetric characteristics of the ring current during storms The variations of the geomagnetic field at mid-low latitudes show a significant dawn-dusk asymmetry, resulting from the superposition of the fields from the symmetric ring current and the partial ring current. On the basis of the data from the 20°E, 30°E meridian chains and 30°N latitudinal chain, the dawn-dusk asymmetry is investigated by using three methods, namely, statistic analysis, ring current model calculation and typical event analysis. This characteristic implies the asymmetry of the spatial distribution of the ring current. In addition, during the main phase after the sudden commencement (SC), H field increases and reaches maximum around noontime, implying the effect of the Chapman-Ferraro current. 4 The statistic characteristics of the day-to-day variability and its mechanism The day-to-day variability of the geomagnetic Sq field is studied by using the magnetic data from a meridian chain of magnetometers along 120° E longitude. The method of NOC is applied to separate the Sq variation from complicated disturbances. The first eigenmode with the largest eigenvalue represents fairly well the Sq variation with a conspicuous day-to-day variability in the daily range. For the stations on the same north- or south-side of the Sq current system focus, the day-to-day variations show a positive correlation. In contrast, for the stations on the different sides of the Sq focus, they show a negative correlation, suggesting an important role of latitudinal shift of the Sq current system focus to the day-to-day variability of the Sq daily range. The Sq daily range is correlated with the magnetic indices Ap and Dst in a peculiar way: on some severe disturbed days, noticeably enhancements of the Sq are observed, implying increases of the ionospheric conductivities and/or tidal wind velocities; on other severe disturbed days, however, dramatically reduced Sq variations occur, suggesting dominant effects of the ‘disturbance dynamo’ process.

电离层行进式扰动的GPS台网监测研究

In this dissertation, we investigated two types of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs)/gravity waves (GWs) triggered separately by auroral energy input during super geomagnetic storms and solar terminator (ST) under quiet geomagnetic conditions (kp<3+) using TEC measurements from the global network of GPS receivers. Research into the generation and propagation of TIDs/GWs during storms greatly enhance our understandings on the evolution processes of energy transportation from the high-latitude’s magnetosphere to the low-latitude ionosphere and the conjugated effect of TIDs propagation between the northern and southern hemispheres. Our results revealed that the conjugacy of propagation direction between the northern and southern hemispheres was subject to the influence of Coriolis force. We also figure out the evolution processes of ionospheric disturbances at the global scale. These are important topics that had not been well addressed previously. In addition, we also obtained thee wave structures of medium scale TIDs excited by the solar terminator (ST) moving over the northern America and physical mechanisms involved. Our observations confirm that the ST is a stable and repetitive source of ionospheric wave disturbances and the evidence of solar terminator generated disturbances has been demonstrated experimentally via the GPS TEC measurement. The main researches and results of this dissertation are as follows. First, the global traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) during the drastic magnetic storms of October 29–31, 2003 were analyzed using the Global Position System (GPS) total electron content (TEC) data observed in the Asian-Australian, European and North American sectors. We collected the most comprehensive set of the TEC data from more than 900 GPS stations on the International GNSS Services (IGS) website and introduce here a strategy that combines polynomial fitting and multi-channel maximum entropy spectral analysis to obtain TID parameters. Moreover, in collaboration with my thesis advisor, I have developed an imaging technique of 2-dimensional map of TIDs structures to obtain spatial and temporal maps of large scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs). The clear structures of TEC perturbations map during the passage of TIDs were displayed. The results of our study are summarized as follows: (1) Large-scale TIDs (LSTIDs) and medium-scale TIDs (MSTIDs) were detected in all three sectors after the sudden commencement (SC) of the magnetic storm, and their features showed longitudinal and latitudinal dependences. The duration of TIDs was longer at higher latitudes than at middle latitudes, with a maximum of about 16 h. The TEC variation amplitude of LSTIDs was larger in the North American sector than in the two other sectors. At the lower latitudes, the ionospheric perturbations were more complicated, and their duration and amplitude were relatively longer and larger. (2) The periods and phase speeds of TIDs were different in these three sectors. In Europe, the TIDs propagated southward; in North America and Asia, the TIDs propagated southwestward; in the near-equator region, the disturbances propagated with the azimuth (the angle of the propagation direction of the LSTIDs measured clockwise from due north with 0°) of 210° showing the influence of Coriolis force; in the Southern Hemisphere, the LSTIDs propagated conjugatedly northwestward. Both the southwestward and northeastward propagating LSTIDs are found in the equatorial region. These results mean that the Coriolis effect cannot be ignored for the wave propagation of LSTIDs and that the propagation direction is correlated with the polar magnetic activity. (3) The day (day of year: 301) before the SC (sudden commencement) of magnetic storm, we observed a sudden TEC skip disturbances (±10 TECU). It should be a response for the high flux of proton during the solar flare event, but not the magnetic storms. Next, the most comprehensive and dense GPS network’s data from North-America region were used in this paper to analyze the medium scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) which were generated by the moving solar terminator during the quiet days in 2005. We applied the multi-channel maximum entropy spectral analysis to calculated TID parameters, and found that the occurrence of ST-MSTIDs depends on the seasonal variations. The results of our study are summarized as follows: (1) MSTIDs stimulated by the moving ST (ST-MSTIDs) are detected at mid-latitudes after the passage of the solar terminator with the life time of 2～3 hours and the variation amplitude of 0.2～0.8 TECU. Spectral analysis indicated that the horizontal wavelength, average period, horizontal phase velocity of the MSTIDs are around 300±150 km，150±80 m/s and 25±15 min, respectively. In addition, ST-MSTIDs have wave fronts elongating the moving ST direction and almost parallel to ST. (2) The statistical results demonstrate that the dusk MSTIDs stimulated by ST is more obvious than the dawn MSTIDs in summer. On the contrary, the more-pronounced dawn MSTIDs occurs in winter. (3) Further analysis indicates that the seasonal variations of ST-MSTIDs occurrence frequency are most probably related to the seasonal differences of the variations of EUV flux in the ionosphere region and recombination process during sunrise and sunset period at mid-latitudes. Statistical study of occurrence characteristics of TIDs using the GPS network in North-American and European during solar maximum, In conclusion, statistical studies of the propagation characteristics of TIDs, which excited by the two common origins including geomagnetic storms and moving solar terminator, were involved with global GPS TEC databasein this thesis. We employed the multichannel maximum entropy spectral analysis method to diagnose the characteristics of propagation and evolvement of ionospheric disturbances, also, the characteristics of their regional distribution and climatological variations were revealed by the statistic analysis. The results of these studies can improve our knowledge about the energy transfer in the solar-terrestrial system and the coupling process between upper and lower atmosphere (thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere). On the other hand, our results of the investigation on TIDs generated by particular linear origin such as ST are important for developing ionospheric irregularity physics and modeling the transionosphere radio wave propagation. Besides, the GPS TEC representation of the ST-generated ionospheric structure suggests a better possibility for investigating this phenomenon. Subsequently, there are scientific meaning of the result of this dissertation to deeply discuss the energy transfer and coupling in the ionosphere, as well as realistic value to space weather forecast in the ionosphere region.

空间电流体系地磁反演及理论研究

The space currents definitely take effects on electromagnetic environment and also are scientific highlight in the space research. Space currents as a momentum and energy provider to Geospace Storm, disturb the varied part of geomagnetic field, distort magnetospheric configuration and furthermore take control of the coupling between magnetosphere and ionosphere. Due to both academic and commercial objectives above, we carry on geomagnetic inverse and theoretical studies about the space currents by using geomagnetic data from INTERMAGNET. At first, we apply a method of Natural Orthogonal Components (NOC) to decomposition the solar daily variation, especially for (solar quiet variation). NOC is just one of eign mode analysis, the most advantage of this method is that the basic functions (BFs) were not previously designated, but naturally came from the original data so that there are several BFs usually corresponding to the process really happened and have more physical meaning than the traditional spectrum analysis with the fixed BFs like Fourier trigonometric functions. The first two eign modes are corresponding to the and daily variation and their amplitudes both have the seasonal and day-to-day trend, that will be useful for evaluating geomagnetic activity indices. Because of the too strict constraints of orthogonality, we try to extend orthogonal contraints to the non-orthogonal ones in order to give more suitable and appropriate decomposition of the real processes when the most components did not satisfy orthogonality. We introduce a mapping matrix which can transform the real physical space to a new mathematical space, after that process, the modified components which associated with the physical processes have satisfied the orthogonality in the new mathematical space, furthermore, we can continue to use the NOC decomposition in the new mathematical space, and then all the components inversely transform back to original physical space, so that we would have finished the non-orthogonal decomposition which more generally in the real world. Secondly, geomagnetic inverse of the ring current’s topology is conducted. Configurational changes of the ring current in the magnetosphere lead to different patterns of disturbed ground field, so that the global configuration of ring current can be inferred from its geomagnetic perturbations. We took advantages of worldwide geomagnetic observatories network to investigate the disturbed geomagnetic field which produced by ring current. It was found that the ring current was not always centered at geomagnetic equator, and significantly deviated off the equator during several intense magnetic storms. The deviation owing to the tilting and latitudinal shifting of the ring current with respect to the earth’s dipole can be estimated from global geomagnetic survey. Furthermore those two configurational factors which gave a quantitative description of the ring current configuration, will be helpful to improve the Dst calibration and understand the dependence of ring current’s configuration on the plasma sheet location relative to the equator when magnetotail field warped. Thirdly, the energization and physical acceleration process of ring current during magnetic storm has been proposed. When IMF Bz component increase, the enhanced convection electric field drive the plasma injection into the inner magnetosphere. During the transport process, a dynamic heating is happened which make the particles more ‘hot’ when the injection is more deeply inward. The energy gradient along the injection path is equivalent to a kind of force, which resist the plasma more earthward injection, as a diamagnetic effect of the magnetosphere anti and repellent action to the exotically injected plasma. The acceleration efficiency has a power law form. We use analytical way to quantitatively describe the dynamical process by introducing a physical parameter: energization index, which will be useful to understand how the particle is heated. At the end, we give a scheme of how to get the from storm time geomagnetic data. During intense magnetic storms, the lognormal trend of geomagnetic Dst decreases depend on the heating dynamic of magnetosphere controlling ring current. The descending pattern of main phase is governed by the magnetospheric configuration, which can be describled by the energization index. The amplitude of Dst correlated with convection electric field or south component of the solar wind. Finally, the Dst index is predicted by upstream solar wind parameter. As we known space weather have posed many chanllenges and impacts on techinal system, the geomagnetic index for evaluating the activity space weather. We review the most popular Dst prediction method and repeat the Dst forecasting model works. A concise and convnient Key Points model of the polar region is also introduced to space weather. In summary, this paper contains some new quantitative and physical description of the space currents with special focus on the ring current. Whatever we do is just to gain a better understanding of the natural world, particularly the space environment around Earth through analytical deduction, algorithm designing and physical analysis, to quantitative interpretation. Applications of theoretical physics in conjunction with data analysis help us to understand the basic physical process govering the universe.

滑坡泥石流信息遥感获取与空间预测

On the issue of geological hazard evaluation（GHE）, taking remote sensing and GIS systems as experimental environment, assisting with some programming development, this thesis combines multi-knowledges of geo-hazard mechanism, statistic learning, remote sensing (RS), high-spectral recognition, spatial analysis, digital photogrammetry as well as mineralogy, and selects geo-hazard samples from Hong Kong and Three Parallel River region as experimental data, to study two kinds of core questions of GHE, geo-hazard information acquiring and evaluation model. In the aspect of landslide information acquiring by RS, three detailed topics are presented, image enhance for visual interpretation, automatic recognition of landslide as well as quantitative mineral mapping. As to the evaluation model, the latest and powerful data mining method, support vector machine (SVM), is introduced to GHE field, and a serious of comparing experiments are carried out to verify its feasibility and efficiency. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method to forecast the distribution of landslides if rainfall in future is known baseing on historical rainfall and corresponding landslide susceptibility map. The details are as following: (a) Remote sensing image enhancing methods for geo-hazard visual interpretation. The effect of visual interpretation is determined by RS data and image enhancing method, for which the most effective and regular technique is image merge between high-spatial image and multi-spectral image, but there are few researches concerning the merging methods of geo-hazard recognition. By the comparing experimental of six mainstream merging methods and combination of different remote sensing data source, this thesis presents merits of each method ,and qualitatively analyzes the effect of spatial resolution, spectral resolution and time phase on merging image. (b) Automatic recognition of shallow landslide by RS image. The inventory of landslide is the base of landslide forecast and landslide study. If persistent collecting of landslide events, updating the geo-hazard inventory in time, and promoting prediction model incessantly, the accuracy of forecast would be boosted step by step. RS technique is a feasible method to obtain landslide information, which is determined by the feature of geo-hazard distribution. An automatic hierarchical approach is proposed to identify shallow landslides in vegetable region by the combination of multi-spectral RS imagery and DEM derivatives, and the experiment is also drilled to inspect its efficiency. (c) Hazard-causing factors obtaining. Accurate environmental factors are the key to analyze and predict the risk of regional geological hazard. As to predict huge debris flow, the main challenge is still to determine the startup material and its volume in debris flow source region. Exerting the merits of various RS technique, this thesis presents the methods to obtain two important hazard-causing factors, DEM and alteration mineral, and through spatial analysis, finds the relationship between hydrothermal clay alteration minerals and geo-hazards in the arid-hot valleys of Three Parallel Rivers region. (d) Applying support vector machine (SVM) to landslide susceptibility mapping. Introduce the latest and powerful statistical learning theory, SVM, to RGHE. SVM that proved an efficient statistic learning method can deal with two-class and one-class samples, with feature avoiding produce ‘pseudo’ samples. 55 years historical samples in a natural terrain of Hong Kong are used to assess this method, whose susceptibility maps obtained by one-class SVM and two-class SVM are compared to that obtained by logistic regression method. It can conclude that two-class SVM possesses better prediction efficiency than logistic regression and one-class SVM. However, one-class SVM, only requires failed cases, has an advantage over the other two methods as only "failed" case information is usually available in landslide susceptibility mapping. (e) Predicting the distribution of rainfall-induced landslides by time-series analysis. Rainfall is the most dominating factor to bring in landslides. More than 90% losing and casualty by landslides is introduced by rainfall, so predicting landslide sites under certain rainfall is an important geological evaluating issue. With full considering the contribution of stable factors (landslide susceptibility map) and dynamic factors (rainfall), the time-series linear regression analysis between rainfall and landslide risk mapis presented, and experiments based on true samples prove that this method is perfect in natural region of Hong Kong. The following 4 practicable or original findings are obtained: 1) The RS ways to enhance geo-hazards image, automatic recognize shallow landslides, obtain DEM and mineral are studied, and the detailed operating steps are given through examples. The conclusion is practical strongly. 2) The explorative researching about relationship between geo-hazards and alteration mineral in arid-hot valley of Jinshajiang river is presented. Based on standard USGS mineral spectrum, the distribution of hydrothermal alteration mineral is mapped by SAM method. Through statistic analysis between debris flows and hazard-causing factors, the strong correlation between debris flows and clay minerals is found and validated. 3) Applying SVM theory (especially one-class SVM theory) to the landslide susceptibility mapping and system evaluation for its performance is also carried out, which proves that advantages of SVM in this field. 4) Establishing time-serial prediction method for rainfall induced landslide distribution. In a natural study area, the distribution of landslides induced by a storm is predicted successfully under a real maximum 24h rainfall based on the regression between 4 historical storms and corresponding landslides.

中低纬电离层暴的统计分析与经验建模

As a key issue of ionospheric weather study, systemic studies on ionospheric storms can not only further improve our understanding of the response of the ionosphere to solar and geomagnetic disturbances, but also help us to reveal the chemical, dynamic and electro-dynamic mechanisms during storms. Empirical modelling for regional ionospheric storm is also very useful, because it can provide us with tools and references for the forecasting and further practical application of ionospheric activity. In this thesis, we focus on describing and forecasting of ionospheric storms at middle and low latitudes. The main points of my investigations are listed as follows. (1) By using magnetic storms during the period over 50 years, the dependence of the type, onset time and time delay of the ionospheric storms on magnetic latitude, season and local time at middle and low latitudes in the East-Asian sector are studied. The results show that the occurrences of the types of ionospheric disturbances differ in latitude and season. The onset of the ionospheric storms depends on local time. At middle latitudes, most negative phase onsets are within the local time interval from night to early morning, and they rarely occurred in the local noon and afternoon sectors. At low latitudes, positive phases commence most frequently in the daytime sector as well as pre-midnight sector. The average time delays for both the positive and negative ionospheric storms increase with descending latitudes. The time delay has significant dependence on the local time of main phase onset (MPO). The time delay of positive response is shorter for daytime MPO and longer for night-time MPO, whereas the opposite applies for negative response. (2) Based on some previous researches, a primary empirical model for mid-latitude ionospheric disturbance is set up. By fitting to the observed data, we get a high accuracy with a mean RMSE of only 12-14% in summer and equinox. The model output has been compared with the output of STORM model, and the results show that, our model is much better than STORM in summer and a little better for some mid-latitude stations at equinox. Especially, for the type of two-step geomagnetic storm, our model can present twice descending of foF2 very well. In addition, our model can forecast positive ionospheric storms.

磁层－电离层电流的暴时变化以及主磁场对空间环境的影响

Two problems are studied in this thesis, the relationship of the magneto-spheric - ionospheric current systems during storms, and the effects of the main field to the space environment. The thesis includes three parts. 1. Magnetic disturbances caused by magnetospheric - ionospheric current systems Transient variations of the geomagnetic field at middle-low latitudes are mainly caused by the ionospheric dynamo current (IDC), the symmetric ring current (SRC), the partial ring current-region II field-aligned current-ionospheric current system (PRFI), and the region I field-aligned current-ionospheric current system (FACI). The storm on May 1 ～ 6, 1998 is analyzed. Firstly, the S_q-field caused by IDC current is removed by using the modified Hibberd's method in which the effect of SRC is considered. The neglect of SRC-field can give as much as 40% error in S_q-field evaluation. Secondly, the disturbance fields at the middle and low latitudes are separated according to their origins. As a result, the disturbance caused by FACI-current is an important part of the asymmetrical depression of H-component in middle and low latitudes during storms. The results show that the relative intensity of the Sq-field increases in the main phase of the storm and decreases in the recovery phase. The latitudinal gradient of the Sq-field is positive during the whole storm. The storm of May 1 ～ 6, 1998 contains two events. In the first event on May 2, the SRC-field is similar to Dst index. But in the second event on May 4 ～ 5, the SRC-field delays to Dst index, and the SRC-field depresses while the PRFI- and FACI-fields recovery. 2. Analysis of S_q~p variation in CGM coordinates In order to study the conjugation of geomagnetic variations between northern and southern hemispheres, we use the corrected geomagnetic coordinates (CGM) instead of the geomagnetic coordinates (GM) to analyze the S_q~P equivalent current system. The CGM coordinates are built up by International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) model. The S_q~p variations and equivalent current systems in the northern and southern polar regions are more symmetrical in CGM coordinates than in GM co-ordinates. This fact implies that the current distributions in polar regions are governed by the configuration of the geomagnetic field lines. As the elaborate structure of S_q~p current system in quiet time is obtained, we summarize the seasonal variation of the electrojet in quiet time. 3. The magnetospheric configuration of non-parallel-dipole model The magnetospheric configurations are calculated for two possible geomag-netic field models during the geomagnetic field reversals. These models are the dipole field with the axis to the sun and the quadrupole field model. We use the finite element method to solve the magnetic equation, and use the surface evolution method to solve the equilibrium equation. The results show that the main field greatly affects the space environment.

北京周边地区沙尘基的数值模拟与风成物质的REE分析

The sandstorms in 2001 were numerically simulated with NARCM that is a dust emission and transport model developed by Meteorological Service of Canada. In this paper, the dataset of NARCM model is processed and analyzed. The results of processing and analyzing show fair images about influence ranges and transport routes of sandstorms in 2001. The outcomes are compared with aerosol concentrations of atmosphere over Beijing, China and Tango, Japan. It confirms that sandstorm occurs when AK TK K and Si concentration in the air increases. It can be concluded that the NARCM model is appropriate for modeling sandstorm in North of China. The processing and analyzing show that the dust is produced and transported in the Otindag and Bashang. So the Otindag and Bashang are parts of source areas of sandstorms in East Asia. Another focus of this study is the REE of aeolian sediments in Otindag、Bashang、Tianmo Badain Jara、Hulunbeier and Kalahali, South Africa. The analysis on REE shows: There is clear distinction in HREE and LREE's Fractionation Degree (HLFD) between the deserts. HLFD is very high in Hulunbeier, with a value of (La/Lu)N 16.0. The value of (La/Lu)N is 12.7 inTianmo and 8.1 in Octindag. The HREE's Fractionation Degree(HFD) is about 4.0, quite similar in all samples. (3) The LREE's Fractionation Degree(LFD) varies slightly, from 1.5(Badain Jaran) to 2.3(Tianmo).

Characteristics of the wave energy resource at the Atlantic marine energy test site

The wave energy industry is progressing towards an advanced stage of development, with consideration being given to the selection of suitable sites for the first commercial installations. An informed, and accurate, characterisation of the wave energy resource is an essential aspect of this process. Ireland is exposed to an energetic wave climate, however many features of this resource are not well understood. This thesis assesses and characterises the wave energy resource that has been measured and modelled at the Atlantic Marine Energy Test Site, a facility for conducting sea trials of floating wave energy converters that is being developed near Belmullet, on the west coast of Ireland. This characterisation process is undertaken through the analysis of metocean datasets that have previously been unavailable for exposed Irish sites. A number of commonly made assumptions in the calculation of wave power are contested, and the uncertainties resulting from their application are demonstrated. The relationship between commonly used wave period parameters is studied, and its importance in the calculation of wave power quantified, while it is also shown that a disconnect exists between the sea states which occur most frequently at the site and those that contribute most to the incident wave energy. Additionally, observations of the extreme wave conditions that have occurred at the site and estimates of future storms that devices will need to withstand are presented. The implications of these results for the design and operation of wave energy converters are discussed. The foremost contribution of this thesis is the development of an enhanced understanding of the fundamental nature of the wave energy resource at the Atlantic Marine Energy Test Site. The results presented here also have a wider relevance, and can be considered typical of other, similarly exposed, locations on Ireland’s west coast.

Scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions fingerprints the rainfall generation mechanism

© 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.The cross-scale probabilistic structure of rainfall intensity records collected over time scales ranging from hours to decades at sites dominated by both convective and frontal systems is investigated. Across these sites, intermittency build-up from slow to fast time-scales is analyzed in terms of heavy tailed and asymmetric signatures in the scale-wise evolution of rainfall probability density functions (pdfs). The analysis demonstrates that rainfall records dominated by convective storms develop heavier-Tailed power law pdfs toward finer scales when compared with their frontal systems counterpart. Also, a concomitant marked asymmetry build-up emerges at such finer time scales. A scale-dependent probabilistic description of such fat tails and asymmetry appearance is proposed based on a modified q-Gaussian model, able to describe the cross-scale rainfall pdfs in terms of the nonextensivity parameter q, a lacunarity (intermittency) correction and a tail asymmetry coefficient, linked to the rainfall generation mechanism.

Using fractal downscaling of satellite precipitation products for hydrometeorological applications

The objective of spatial downscaling strategies is to increase the information content of coarse datasets at smaller scales. In the case of quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) for hydrological applications, the goal is to close the scale gap between the spatial resolution of coarse datasets (e.g., gridded satellite precipitation products at resolution L × L) and the high resolution (l × l; L»l) necessary to capture the spatial features that determine spatial variability of water flows and water stores in the landscape. In essence, the downscaling process consists of weaving subgrid-scale heterogeneity over a desired range of wavelengths in the original field. The defining question is, which properties, statistical and otherwise, of the target field (the known observable at the desired spatial resolution) should be matched, with the caveat that downscaling methods be as a general as possible and therefore ideally without case-specific constraints and/or calibration requirements? Here, the attention is focused on two simple fractal downscaling methods using iterated functions systems (IFS) and fractal Brownian surfaces (FBS) that meet this requirement. The two methods were applied to disaggregate spatially 27 summertime convective storms in the central United States during 2007 at three consecutive times (1800, 2100, and 0000 UTC, thus 81 fields overall) from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) version 6 (V6) 3B42 precipitation product (~25-km grid spacing) to the same resolution as the NCEP stage IV products (~4-km grid spacing). Results from bilinear interpolation are used as the control. A fundamental distinction between IFS and FBS is that the latter implies a distribution of downscaled fields and thus an ensemble solution, whereas the former provides a single solution. The downscaling effectiveness is assessed using fractal measures (the spectral exponent β, fractal dimension D, Hurst coefficient H, and roughness amplitude R) and traditional operational scores statistics scores [false alarm rate (FR), probability of detection (PD), threat score (TS), and Heidke skill score (HSS)], as well as bias and the root-mean-square error (RMSE). The results show that both IFS and FBS fractal interpolation perform well with regard to operational skill scores, and they meet the additional requirement of generating structurally consistent fields. Furthermore, confidence intervals can be directly generated from the FBS ensemble. The results were used to diagnose errors relevant for hydrometeorological applications, in particular a spatial displacement with characteristic length of at least 50 km (2500 km2) in the location of peak rainfall intensities for the cases studied. © 2010 American Meteorological Society.

Dramatic variability of the carbonate system at a temperate coastal ocean site (Beaufort, North Carolina, USA) is regulated by physical and biogeochemical processes on multiple timescales.

Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) from anthropogenic sources is acidifying marine environments resulting in potentially dramatic consequences for the physical, chemical and biological functioning of these ecosystems. If current trends continue, mean ocean pH is expected to decrease by ~0.2 units over the next ~50 years. Yet, there is also substantial temporal variability in pH and other carbon system parameters in the ocean resulting in regions that already experience change that exceeds long-term projected trends in pH. This points to short-term dynamics as an important layer of complexity on top of long-term trends. Thus, in order to predict future climate change impacts, there is a critical need to characterize the natural range and dynamics of the marine carbonate system and the mechanisms responsible for observed variability. Here, we present pH and dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) at time intervals spanning 1 hour to >1 year from a dynamic, coastal, temperate marine system (Beaufort Inlet, Beaufort NC USA) to characterize the carbonate system at multiple time scales. Daily and seasonal variation of the carbonate system is largely driven by temperature, alkalinity and the balance between primary production and respiration, but high frequency change (hours to days) is further influenced by water mass movement (e.g. tides) and stochastic events (e.g. storms). Both annual (~0.3 units) and diurnal (~0.1 units) variability in coastal ocean acidity are similar in magnitude to 50 year projections of ocean acidity associated with increasing atmospheric CO2. The environmental variables driving these changes highlight the importance of characterizing the complete carbonate system rather than just pH. Short-term dynamics of ocean carbon parameters may already exert significant pressure on some coastal marine ecosystems with implications for ecology, biogeochemistry and evolution and this shorter term variability layers additive effects and complexity, including extreme values, on top of long-term trends in ocean acidification.

Modelling high particulate matter and ozone episodes in the Trans-Manche region

There is concern in the Cross-Channel region of Nord-Pas-de-Calais (France) and Kent (Great Britain), regarding the extent of atmospheric pollution detected in the area from emitted gaseous (VOC, NOx, S02)and particulate substances. In particular, the air quality of the Cross-Channel or "Trans-Manche" region is highly affected by the heavily industrial area of Dunkerque, in addition to transportation sources linked to cross-channel traffic in Kent and Calais, posing threats to the environment and human health. In the framework of the cross-border EU Interreg IIIA activity, the joint Anglo-French project, ATTMA, has been commissioned to study Aerosol Transport in the Trans-Manche Atmosphere. Using ground monitoring data from UK and French networks and with the assistance of satellite images the project aims to determine dispersion patterns. and identify sources responsible for the pollutants. The findings of this study will increase awareness and have a bearing on future air quality policy in the region. Public interest is evident by the presence of local authorities on both sides of the English Channel as collaborators. The research is based on pollution transport simulations using (a) Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models, (b) an Eulerian Receptor Based model. This paper is concerned with part (a), the LPD Models. Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) models are often used to numerically simulate the dispersion of a passive tracer in the planetary boundary layer by calculating the Lagrangian trajectories of thousands of notional particles. In this contribution, the project investigated the use of two widely used particle dispersion models: the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model and the model FLEXPART. In both models forward tracking and inverse (or·. receptor-based) modes are possible. Certain distinct pollution episodes have been selected from the monitor database EXPER/PF and from UK monitoring stations, and their likely trajectory predicted using prevailing weather data. Global meteorological datasets were downloaded from the ECMWF MARS archive. Part of the difficulty in identifying pollution sources arises from the fact that much of the pollution outside the monitoring area. For example heightened particulate concentrations are to originate from sand storms in the Sahara, or volcanic activity in Iceland or the Caribbean work identifies such long range influences. The output of the simulations shows that there are notable differences between the formulations of and Hysplit, although both models used the same meteorological data and source input, suggesting that the identification of the primary emissions during air pollution episodes may be rather uncertain.

Airborne transport of Saharan dust to the Mediterranean and to the Atlantic

The Sahara desert is a significant source of particulate pollution not only to the Mediterranean region, but also to the Atlantic and beyond. In this paper, PM 10 exceedences recorded in the UK and the island of Crete are studied and their source investigated, using Lagrangian Particle Dispersion (LPD) methods. Forward and inverse simulations identify Saharan dust storms as the primary source of these episodes. The methodology used allows comparison between this primary source and other possible candidates, for example large forest fires or volcanic eruptions. Two LPD models are used in the simulations, namely the open source code FLEXPART and the proprietary code HYSPLIT. Driven by the same meteorological fields (the ECMWF MARS archive and the PSU/NCAR Mesoscale model, known as MM5) the codes produce similar, but not identical predictions. This inter-model comparison enables a critical assessment of the physical modelling assumptions employed in each code, plus the influence of boundary conditions and solution grid density. The outputs, in the form of particle concentrations evolving in time, are compared against satellite images and receptor data from multiple ground-based sites. Quantitative comparisons are good, especially in predicting the time of arrival of the dust plume in a particular location.

Heritage

This article examines the concepts, definitions, policies, and practices of heritage in a contemporary context. Within recent years, there have been significant shifts in our understandings and applications of heritage concepts and policies in the modern world. ‘Heritage’ emerged as a buzz word in international policy arenas in the 1980s and early 1990s, and has since weathered the vagaries of turbulent definitional and governance–nomenclature storms, as traditional debates about ‘what it is and what it is not’ reverberate around academia and state agencies alike. Policy and funding structures for heritage are determined by the classifications used to define them in various countries. Typically, reference is made to ‘built heritage’, ‘natural heritage’, and ‘intangible heritage’, loosely reflecting buildings, landscapes, and culture. Aspects of heritage are used by the cultural and tourism industries to add economic value, through heritage tourism sites, museums, and other activities. The cultural tourism product is often anchored around notions of heritage, and in postmodern, post-tourist societies, boundaries between culture, (travel) space, and identities are increasingly blurred. Issues of authenticity become important in the representation of heritage, and questions are asked about the validity of nostalgia versus realism. The role of heritage is examined in the context of identity formulation at individual and nation-state levels, and the political aspects of this are also discussed. Finally, heritage conservation is assessed through an examination of UNESCO’s World Heritage Site listing and protection strategy. In a changing world, new constructs of heritage, identity, authenticity, and representation will continue to emerge as meanings are constantly renegotiated over time and space.