A Monte Carlo expectation maximisation algorithm for multiple target tracking

In this paper, we present an expectation-maximisation (EM) algorithm for maximum likelihood estimation in multiple target models (MTT) with Gaussian linear state-space dynamics. We show that estimation of sufficient statistics for EM in a single Gaussian linear state-space model can be extended to the MTT case along with a Monte Carlo approximation for inference of unknown associations of targets. The stochastic approximation EM algorithm that we present here can be used along with any Monte Carlo method which has been developed for tracking in MTT models, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo and sequential Monte Carlo methods. We demonstrate the performance of the algorithm with a simulation. © 2012 ISIF (Intl Society of Information Fusi).

State estimation schemes for independent component coupled hidden Markov models

Conventional Hidden Markov models generally consist of a Markov chain observed through a linear map corrupted by additive noise. This general class of model has enjoyed a huge and diverse range of applications, for example, speech processing, biomedical signal processing and more recently quantitative finance. However, a lesser known extension of this general class of model is the so-called Factorial Hidden Markov Model (FHMM). FHMMs also have diverse applications, notably in machine learning, artificial intelligence and speech recognition [13, 17]. FHMMs extend the usual class of HMMs, by supposing the partially observed state process is a finite collection of distinct Markov chains, either statistically independent or dependent. There is also considerable current activity in applying collections of partially observed Markov chains to complex action recognition problems, see, for example, [6]. In this article we consider the Maximum Likelihood (ML) parameter estimation problem for FHMMs. Much of the extant literature concerning this problem presents parameter estimation schemes based on full data log-likelihood EM algorithms. This approach can be slow to converge and often imposes heavy demands on computer memory. The latter point is particularly relevant for the class of FHMMs where state space dimensions are relatively large. The contribution in this article is to develop new recursive formulae for a filter-based EM algorithm that can be implemented online. Our new formulae are equivalent ML estimators, however, these formulae are purely recursive and so, significantly reduce numerical complexity and memory requirements. A computer simulation is included to demonstrate the performance of our results. © Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.

Tracking Human Body Pose on a Learned Smooth Space

Particle filtering is a popular method used in systems for tracking human body pose in video. One key difficulty in using particle filtering is caused by the curse of dimensionality: generally a very large number of particles is required to adequately approximate the underlying pose distribution in a high-dimensional state space. Although the number of degrees of freedom in the human body is quite large, in reality, the subset of allowable configurations in state space is generally restricted by human biomechanics, and the trajectories in this allowable subspace tend to be smooth. Therefore, a framework is proposed to learn a low-dimensional representation of the high-dimensional human poses state space. This mapping can be learned using a Gaussian Process Latent Variable Model (GPLVM) framework. One important advantage of the GPLVM framework is that both the mapping to, and mapping from the embedded space are smooth; this facilitates sampling in the low-dimensional space, and samples generated in the low-dimensional embedded space are easily mapped back into the original highdimensional space. Moreover, human body poses that are similar in the original space tend to be mapped close to each other in the embedded space; this property can be exploited when sampling in the embedded space. The proposed framework is tested in tracking 2D human body pose using a Scaled Prismatic Model. Experiments on real life video sequences demonstrate the strength of the approach. In comparison with the Multiple Hypothesis Tracking and the standard Condensation algorithm, the proposed algorithm is able to maintain tracking reliably throughout the long test sequences. It also handles singularity and self occlusion robustly.

Computational Inference of Genome-Wide Protein-DNA Interactions Using High-Throughput Genomic Data

Transcriptional regulation has been studied intensively in recent decades. One important aspect of this regulation is the interaction between regulatory proteins, such as transcription factors (TF) and nucleosomes, and the genome. Different high-throughput techniques have been invented to map these interactions genome-wide, including ChIP-based methods (ChIP-chip, ChIP-seq, etc.), nuclease digestion methods (DNase-seq, MNase-seq, etc.), and others. However, a single experimental technique often only provides partial and noisy information about the whole picture of protein-DNA interactions. Therefore, the overarching goal of this dissertation is to provide computational developments for jointly modeling different experimental datasets to achieve a holistic inference on the protein-DNA interaction landscape.

We first present a computational framework that can incorporate the protein binding information in MNase-seq data into a thermodynamic model of protein-DNA interaction. We use a correlation-based objective function to model the MNase-seq data and a Markov chain Monte Carlo method to maximize the function. Our results show that the inferred protein-DNA interaction landscape is concordant with the MNase-seq data and provides a mechanistic explanation for the experimentally collected MNase-seq fragments. Our framework is flexible and can easily incorporate other data sources. To demonstrate this flexibility, we use prior distributions to integrate experimentally measured protein concentrations.

We also study the ability of DNase-seq data to position nucleosomes. Traditionally, DNase-seq has only been widely used to identify DNase hypersensitive sites, which tend to be open chromatin regulatory regions devoid of nucleosomes. We reveal for the first time that DNase-seq datasets also contain substantial information about nucleosome translational positioning, and that existing DNase-seq data can be used to infer nucleosome positions with high accuracy. We develop a Bayes-factor-based nucleosome scoring method to position nucleosomes using DNase-seq data. Our approach utilizes several effective strategies to extract nucleosome positioning signals from the noisy DNase-seq data, including jointly modeling data points across the nucleosome body and explicitly modeling the quadratic and oscillatory DNase I digestion pattern on nucleosomes. We show that our DNase-seq-based nucleosome map is highly consistent with previous high-resolution maps. We also show that the oscillatory DNase I digestion pattern is useful in revealing the nucleosome rotational context around TF binding sites.

Finally, we present a state-space model (SSM) for jointly modeling different kinds of genomic data to provide an accurate view of the protein-DNA interaction landscape. We also provide an efficient expectation-maximization algorithm to learn model parameters from data. We first show in simulation studies that the SSM can effectively recover underlying true protein binding configurations. We then apply the SSM to model real genomic data (both DNase-seq and MNase-seq data). Through incrementally increasing the types of genomic data in the SSM, we show that different data types can contribute complementary information for the inference of protein binding landscape and that the most accurate inference comes from modeling all available datasets.

This dissertation provides a foundation for future research by taking a step toward the genome-wide inference of protein-DNA interaction landscape through data integration.

Birth-death processes with mass annihilation and state-dependent immigration

A birth-death process is subject to mass annihilation at rate β with subsequent mass immigration occurring into state j at rateα j . This structure enables the process to jump from one sector of state space to another one (via state 0) with transition rate independent of population size. First, we highlight the difficulties encountered when using standard techniques to construct both time-dependent and equilibrium probabilities. Then we show how to overcome such analytic difficulties by means of a tool developed in Chen and Renshaw (1990, 1993b); this approach is applicable to many processes whose underlying generator on E\{0} has known probability structure. Here we demonstrate the technique through application to the linear birth-death generator on which is superimposed an annihilation/immigration process.

Sei whale (Balaenoptera borealis) ecology and management in the North Atlantic

Tese de Doutoramento em Ciências do Mar, especialidade em Ecologia Marinha.

Optimização do posicionamento de câmaras de vídeo-vigilância

Dissertação de Mestrado em Engenharia de Redes de Comunicação e Multimédia

Modelação e previsão de vendas no setor do retalho de calçado

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística Orientada por: Professora Doutora Patrícia Alexandra Gregório Ramos

Gestão da cadeia de abastecimento de bens de consumo baseada em modelos de previsão lineares

Dissertação apresentada ao Instituto Politécnico do Porto para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Logística

Aggregations and Marginalization of GARCH and Stochastic Volatility Models

The GARCH and Stochastic Volatility paradigms are often brought into conflict as two competitive views of the appropriate conditional variance concept : conditional variance given past values of the same series or conditional variance given a larger past information (including possibly unobservable state variables). The main thesis of this paper is that, since in general the econometrician has no idea about something like a structural level of disaggregation, a well-written volatility model should be specified in such a way that one is always allowed to reduce the information set without invalidating the model. To this respect, the debate between observable past information (in the GARCH spirit) versus unobservable conditioning information (in the state-space spirit) is irrelevant. In this paper, we stress a square-root autoregressive stochastic volatility (SR-SARV) model which remains true to the GARCH paradigm of ARMA dynamics for squared innovations but weakens the GARCH structure in order to obtain required robustness properties with respect to various kinds of aggregation. It is shown that the lack of robustness of the usual GARCH setting is due to two very restrictive assumptions : perfect linear correlation between squared innovations and conditional variance on the one hand and linear relationship between the conditional variance of the future conditional variance and the squared conditional variance on the other hand. By relaxing these assumptions, thanks to a state-space setting, we obtain aggregation results without renouncing to the conditional variance concept (and related leverage effects), as it is the case for the recently suggested weak GARCH model which gets aggregation results by replacing conditional expectations by linear projections on symmetric past innovations. Moreover, unlike the weak GARCH literature, we are able to define multivariate models, including higher order dynamics and risk premiums (in the spirit of GARCH (p,p) and GARCH in mean) and to derive conditional moment restrictions well suited for statistical inference. Finally, we are able to characterize the exact relationships between our SR-SARV models (including higher order dynamics, leverage effect and in-mean effect), usual GARCH models and continuous time stochastic volatility models, so that previous results about aggregation of weak GARCH and continuous time GARCH modeling can be recovered in our framework.

Reinforcement Learning Approaches to Power System Scheduling

One major component of power system operation is generation scheduling. The objective of the work is to develop efficient control strategies to the power scheduling problems through Reinforcement Learning approaches. The three important active power scheduling problems are Unit Commitment, Economic Dispatch and Automatic Generation Control. Numerical solution methods proposed for solution of power scheduling are insufficient in handling large and complex systems. Soft Computing methods like Simulated Annealing, Evolutionary Programming etc., are efficient in handling complex cost functions, but find limitation in handling stochastic data existing in a practical system. Also the learning steps are to be repeated for each load demand which increases the computation time.Reinforcement Learning (RL) is a method of learning through interactions with environment. The main advantage of this approach is it does not require a precise mathematical formulation. It can learn either by interacting with the environment or interacting with a simulation model. Several optimization and control problems have been solved through Reinforcement Learning approach. The application of Reinforcement Learning in the field of Power system has been a few. The objective is to introduce and extend Reinforcement Learning approaches for the active power scheduling problems in an implementable manner. The main objectives can be enumerated as:(i) Evolve Reinforcement Learning based solutions to the Unit Commitment Problem.(ii) Find suitable solution strategies through Reinforcement Learning approach for Economic Dispatch. (iii) Extend the Reinforcement Learning solution to Automatic Generation Control with a different perspective. (iv) Check the suitability of the scheduling solutions to one of the existing power systems.First part of the thesis is concerned with the Reinforcement Learning approach to Unit Commitment problem. Unit Commitment Problem is formulated as a multi stage decision process. Q learning solution is developed to obtain the optimwn commitment schedule. Method of state aggregation is used to formulate an efficient solution considering the minimwn up time I down time constraints. The performance of the algorithms are evaluated for different systems and compared with other stochastic methods like Genetic Algorithm.Second stage of the work is concerned with solving Economic Dispatch problem. A simple and straight forward decision making strategy is first proposed in the Learning Automata algorithm. Then to solve the scheduling task of systems with large number of generating units, the problem is formulated as a multi stage decision making task. The solution obtained is extended in order to incorporate the transmission losses in the system. To make the Reinforcement Learning solution more efficient and to handle continuous state space, a fimction approximation strategy is proposed. The performance of the developed algorithms are tested for several standard test cases. Proposed method is compared with other recent methods like Partition Approach Algorithm, Simulated Annealing etc.As the final step of implementing the active power control loops in power system, Automatic Generation Control is also taken into consideration.Reinforcement Learning has already been applied to solve Automatic Generation Control loop. The RL solution is extended to take up the approach of common frequency for all the interconnected areas, more similar to practical systems. Performance of the RL controller is also compared with that of the conventional integral controller.In order to prove the suitability of the proposed methods to practical systems, second plant ofNeyveli Thennal Power Station (NTPS IT) is taken for case study. The perfonnance of the Reinforcement Learning solution is found to be better than the other existing methods, which provide the promising step towards RL based control schemes for practical power industry.Reinforcement Learning is applied to solve the scheduling problems in the power industry and found to give satisfactory perfonnance. Proposed solution provides a scope for getting more profit as the economic schedule is obtained instantaneously. Since Reinforcement Learning method can take the stochastic cost data obtained time to time from a plant, it gives an implementable method. As a further step, with suitable methods to interface with on line data, economic scheduling can be achieved instantaneously in a generation control center. Also power scheduling of systems with different sources such as hydro, thermal etc. can be looked into and Reinforcement Learning solutions can be achieved.

Development and Evaluation of Blind Identification Techniques for Nonlinear Systems

Identification and Control of Non‐linear dynamical systems are challenging problems to the control engineers.The topic is equally relevant in communication,weather prediction ,bio medical systems and even in social systems,where nonlinearity is an integral part of the system behavior.Most of the real world systems are nonlinear in nature and wide applications are there for nonlinear system identification/modeling.The basic approach in analyzing the nonlinear systems is to build a model from known behavior manifest in the form of system output.The problem of modeling boils down to computing a suitably parameterized model,representing the process.The parameters of the model are adjusted to optimize a performanace function,based on error between the given process output and identified process/model output.While the linear system identification is well established with many classical approaches,most of those methods cannot be directly applied for nonlinear system identification.The problem becomes more complex if the system is completely unknown but only the output time series is available.Blind recognition problem is the direct consequence of such a situation.The thesis concentrates on such problems.Capability of Artificial Neural Networks to approximate many nonlinear input-output maps makes it predominantly suitable for building a function for the identification of nonlinear systems,where only the time series is available.The literature is rich with a variety of algorithms to train the Neural Network model.A comprehensive study of the computation of the model parameters,using the different algorithms and the comparison among them to choose the best technique is still a demanding requirement from practical system designers,which is not available in a concise form in the literature.The thesis is thus an attempt to develop and evaluate some of the well known algorithms and propose some new techniques,in the context of Blind recognition of nonlinear systems.It also attempts to establish the relative merits and demerits of the different approaches.comprehensiveness is achieved in utilizing the benefits of well known evaluation techniques from statistics. The study concludes by providing the results of implementation of the currently available and modified versions and newly introduced techniques for nonlinear blind system modeling followed by a comparison of their performance.It is expected that,such comprehensive study and the comparison process can be of great relevance in many fields including chemical,electrical,biological,financial and weather data analysis.Further the results reported would be of immense help for practical system designers and analysts in selecting the most appropriate method based on the goodness of the model for the particular context.

An Error-Localization, Validation and Optimization Tool for Embedded Code Augmentation: an Architecture Oriented Approach

Embedded systems are usually designed for a single or a specified set of tasks. This specificity means the system design as well as its hardware/software development can be highly optimized. Embedded software must meet the requirements such as high reliability operation on resource-constrained platforms, real time constraints and rapid development. This necessitates the adoption of static machine codes analysis tools running on a host machine for the validation and optimization of embedded system codes, which can help meet all of these goals. This could significantly augment the software quality and is still a challenging field.Embedded systems are usually designed for a single or a specified set of tasks. This specificity means the system design as well as its hardware/software development can be highly optimized. Embedded software must meet the requirements such as high reliability operation on resource-constrained platforms, real time constraints and rapid development. This necessitates the adoption of static machine codes analysis tools running on a host machine for the validation and optimization of embedded system codes, which can help meet all of these goals. This could significantly augment the software quality and is still a challenging field.Embedded systems are usually designed for a single or a specified set of tasks. This specificity means the system design as well as its hardware/software development can be highly optimized. Embedded software must meet the requirements such as high reliability operation on resource-constrained platforms, real time constraints and rapid development. This necessitates the adoption of static machine codes analysis tools running on a host machine for the validation and optimization of embedded system codes, which can help meet all of these goals. This could significantly augment the software quality and is still a challenging field.Embedded systems are usually designed for a single or a specified set of tasks. This specificity means the system design as well as its hardware/software development can be highly optimized. Embedded software must meet the requirements such as high reliability operation on resource-constrained platforms, real time constraints and rapid development. This necessitates the adoption of static machine codes analysis tools running on a host machine for the validation and optimization of embedded system codes, which can help meet all of these goals. This could significantly augment the software quality and is still a challenging field.This dissertation contributes to an architecture oriented code validation, error localization and optimization technique assisting the embedded system designer in software debugging, to make it more effective at early detection of software bugs that are otherwise hard to detect, using the static analysis of machine codes. The focus of this work is to develop methods that automatically localize faults as well as optimize the code and thus improve the debugging process as well as quality of the code.Validation is done with the help of rules of inferences formulated for the target processor. The rules govern the occurrence of illegitimate/out of place instructions and code sequences for executing the computational and integrated peripheral functions. The stipulated rules are encoded in propositional logic formulae and their compliance is tested individually in all possible execution paths of the application programs. An incorrect sequence of machine code pattern is identified using slicing techniques on the control flow graph generated from the machine code.An algorithm to assist the compiler to eliminate the redundant bank switching codes and decide on optimum data allocation to banked memory resulting in minimum number of bank switching codes in embedded system software is proposed. A relation matrix and a state transition diagram formed for the active memory bank state transition corresponding to each bank selection instruction is used for the detection of redundant codes. Instances of code redundancy based on the stipulated rules for the target processor are identified.This validation and optimization tool can be integrated to the system development environment. It is a novel approach independent of compiler/assembler, applicable to a wide range of processors once appropriate rules are formulated. Program states are identified mainly with machine code pattern, which drastically reduces the state space creation contributing to an improved state-of-the-art model checking. Though the technique described is general, the implementation is architecture oriented, and hence the feasibility study is conducted on PIC16F87X microcontrollers. The proposed tool will be very useful in steering novices towards correct use of difficult microcontroller features in developing embedded systems.

Relationship between åström control and the kalman linear regulator — Caines revisited

The relationship between minimum variance and minimum expected quadratic loss feedback controllers for linear univariate discrete-time stochastic systems is reviewed by taking the approach used by Caines. It is shown how the two methods can be regarded as providing identical control actions as long as a noise-free measurement state-space model is employed.

Neurofuzzy control using Kalman filtering state feedback with coloured noise for unknown non-linear processes

This paper presents a controller design scheme for a priori unknown non-linear dynamical processes that are identified via an operating point neurofuzzy system from process data. Based on a neurofuzzy design and model construction algorithm (NeuDec) for a non-linear dynamical process, a neurofuzzy state-space model of controllable form is initially constructed. The control scheme based on closed-loop pole assignment is then utilized to ensure the time invariance and linearization of the state equations so that the system stability can be guaranteed under some mild assumptions, even in the presence of modelling error. The proposed approach requires a known state vector for the application of pole assignment state feedback. For this purpose, a generalized Kalman filtering algorithm with coloured noise is developed on the basis of the neurofuzzy state-space model to obtain an optimal state vector estimation. The derived controller is applied in typical output tracking problems by minimizing the tracking error. Simulation examples are included to demonstrate the operation and effectiveness of the new approach.