Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Deamplification of pfmdr1-Containing Amplicon on Chromosome 5 in Plasmodium falciparum Is Associated with Reduced Resistance to Artelinic Acid In Vitro

Amplification of the Plasmodium falciparum multidrug resistance 1 gene (pfmdr1) has been implicated in multidrug resistance, including in vitro resistance to artelinic acid (AL). The stability and fitness of having multiple copies of pfmdr1 are important factors due to their potential effects on the resistance phenotype of parasites. These factors were investigated by using an AL-resistant line of P. falciparum (W2AL80) and clones originating from W2AL80. A rapid reduction in pfmdr1 copy number (CN) was observed in the uncloned W2AL80 line; 63% of this population reverted to a CN of <3 without exposure to the drug. Deamplification of the pfmdr1 amplicon was then determined in three clones, each initially containing three copies of pfmdr1. Interestingly, two outcomes were observed during 3 months without drug pressure. In one clone, parasites with fewer than 3 copies of pfmdr1 emerged rapidly. In two other clones, the reversion was significantly delayed. In all subclones, the reduction in pfmdr1 CN involved the deamplification of the entire amplicon (19 genes). Importantly, deamplification of the pfmdr1 amplicon resulted in partial reversal of resistance to AL and increased susceptibility to mefloquine. These results demonstrate that multiple copies of the pfmdr1-containing amplicon in AL-resistant parasites are unstable when drug pressure is withdrawn and have practical implications for the maintenance and spread of parasites resistant to artemisinin derivatives.

Priority threat management of invasive plant species in the Lake Eyre Basin

This project is led by scientists in conservation decision appraisal and brings together a group of experts working across the Lake Eyre Basin (LEB). The LEB covers a sixth of Australia, with an array of globally significant natural values that are threatened by invasive plants, among other things. Managers at various levels are investing in attempts to control, contain and eradicate these invasive plant species, under severe time and resources limitations. To date there has been no basin-wide assessment of which weed management strategies and locations provide the best investments for maximising outcomes for biodiversity per unit cost. Further, there has been no assessment of the extent of ecosystem intactness that may be lost without effective invasive plant species management strategies. Given that there are insufficient resources to manage all invasive plant species everywhere, this information has the potential to improve current investment decisions. Here, we provide a prioritisation of invasive plant management strategies in the LEB. Prioritisation was based on cost-effectiveness for biodiversity benefits. We identify the key invasive plant species to target to protect ecosystem intactness across the bioregions of the LEB, the level of investment required and the likely reduction in invasive species dominance gained per dollar spent on each strategy. Our focus is on strategies that are technically and socially feasible and reduce the likelihood that high impact invasive plant species will dominate native ecosystems, and therefore change their form and function. The outputs of this work are designed to help guide decision-making and further planning and investment in weed management for the Basin. Experts in weed management, policy-making, community engagement, biodiversity and natural values of the Basin, attended a workshop and agreed upon 12 strategies to manage invasive plants. The strategies focused primarily on 10 weeds which were considered to have a high potential for broad, significant impacts on natural ecosystems in the next 50 years and for which feasible management strategies could be defined. Each strategy consisted of one or more supporting actions, many of which were spatially linked to IBRA (Interim Biogeographical Regionalisation of Australia) bioregions. The first strategy was an over-arching recommendation for improved mapping, information sharing, education and extension efforts in order to facilitate the more specific weed management strategies. The 10 more specific weed management strategies targeted the control and/or eradication of the following high-impact exotic plants: mesquite, parkinsonia, rubber vine, bellyache bush, cacti, mother of millions, chinee apple, athel pine and prickly acacia, as well as a separate strategy for eradicating all invasive plants from one key threatened ecological community, the GAB (Great Artesian Basin dependant) mound springs. Experts estimated the expected biodiversity benefit of each strategy as the reduction in area that an invasive plant species is likely to dominate in over a 50-year period, where dominance was defined as more than 30% coverage at a site. Costs were estimated in present day terms over 50 years largely during follow up discussions post workshop. Cost-effectiveness was then calculated for each strategy in each bioregion by dividing the average expected benefit by the average annual costs. Overall, the total cost of managing 12 invasive plant strategies over the next 50 years was estimated at $1.7 billion. It was estimated that implementation of these strategies would result in a reduction of invasive plant dominance by 17 million ha (a potential 32% reduction), roughly 14% of the LEB. If only targeting Weeds of National Significance (WONS), the total cost was estimated to be $113 million over the next 50 years. Over the next 50 years, $2.3 million was estimated to eradicate all invasive plant species from the Great Artesian Basin Mound Springs threatened ecological community. Prevention and awareness programs were another key strategy targeted across the Basin and estimated at $17.5 million in total over 50 years. The cost of controlling, eradicating and containing buffel grass were the most expensive, over $1.5 billion over 50 years; this strategy was estimated to result in a reduction in buffel grass dominance of a million ha in areas where this species is identified as an environmental problem. Buffel grass has been deliberately planted across the Basin for pasture production and is by far the most widely distributed exotic species. Its management is contentious, having economic value to many graziers while posing serious threats to biodiversity and sites of high cultural and conservation interest. The strategy for containing and locally eradicating buffel grass was a challenge to cost based on expert knowledge, possibly because of the dual nature of this species as a valued pastoral grass and environmental weed. Based on our conversations with experts, it appears that control and eradication programs for this species, in conservation areas, are growing rapidly and that information on the most cost-effective strategies for this species will continue to develop over time. The top five most cost-effective strategies for the entire LEB were for the management of: 1) parkinsonia, 2) chinee apple, 3) mesquite, 4) rubber vine and 5) bellyache bush. Chinee apple and mother of millions are not WONS and have comparatively small populations within the semi-arid bioregions of Queensland. Experts felt that there was an opportunity to eradicate these species before they had the chance to develop into high-impact species within the LEB. Prickly acacia was estimated to have one of the highest benefits, but the costs of this strategy were high, therefore it was ranked 7th overall. The buffel grass strategy was ranked the lowest (10th) in terms of cost effectiveness. The top five most cost-effective strategies within and across the bioregions were the management of: 1) parkinsonia in the Channel Country, 2) parkinsonia in the Desert Uplands, 3) mesquite in the Mitchell Grass Downs, 4) parkinsonia in the Mitchell Grass Downs, and 5) mother of millions in the Desert Uplands. Although actions for several invasive plant species like parkinsonia and prickly acacia were concentrated in the Queensland part of the LEB, the actions involved investing in containment zones to prevent the spread of these species into other states. In the NT and SA bioregions of the LEB, the management of athel pine, parkinsonia and cacti were the main strategies. While outside the scientific research goals of study, this work highlighted a number of important incidental findings that led us to make the following recommendations for future research and implementation of weed management in the Basin: • Ongoing stakeholder engagement, extension and participation is required to ensure this prioritisation effort has a positive impact in affecting on-ground decision making and planning. • Short term funding for weed management was identified as a major reason for failure of current efforts, hence future funding needs to be secure and ongoing. • Improved mapping and information sharing is essential to implement effective weed management. • Due to uncertainties in the outcomes and impacts of management options, strategies should be implemented as part of an adaptive management program. The information provided in this report can be used to guide investment for controlling high-impact invasive plant species for the benefits of biodiversity conservation. We do not present a final prioritisation of invasive plant strategies for the LEB, and we have not addressed the cultural, socio-economic or spatial components necessary for an implementation plan. Cost-effectiveness depends on the objectives used; in our case we used the intactness of ecosystems as a surrogate for expected biodiversity benefits, measured by the extent that each invasive plant species is likely to dominate in a bioregion. When other relevant factors for implementation are considered the priorities may change and some actions may not be appropriate in some locations. We present the costs, ecological benefits and cost-effectiveness of preventing, containing, reducing and eradicating the dominance of high impact invasive plants through realistic management actions over the next 50 years. In doing so, we are able to estimate the size of the weed management problem in the LEB and provide expert-based estimates of the likely outcomes and benefits of implementing weed management strategies. The priorities resulting from this work provide a prospectus for guiding further investment in management and in improving information availability.

Global dissemination of a multidrug resistant Escherichia coli clone

Escherichia coli sequence type 131 (ST131) is a globally disseminated, multidrug resistant (MDR) clone responsible for a high proportion of urinary tract and bloodstream infections. The rapid emergence and successful spread of E. coli ST131 is strongly associated with several factors, including resistance to fluoroquinolones, high virulence gene content, the possession of the type 1 fimbriae FimH30 allele, and the production of the CTX-M-15 extended spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL). Here, we used genome sequencing to examine the molecular epidemiology of a collection of E. coli ST131 strains isolated from six distinct geographical locations across the world spanning 2000–2011. The global phylogeny of E. coli ST131, determined from whole-genome sequence data, revealed a single lineage of E. coli ST131 distinct from other extraintestinal E. coli strains within the B2 phylogroup. Three closely related E. coli ST131 sublineages were identified, with little association to geographic origin. The majority of single-nucleotide variants associated with each of the sublineages were due to recombination in regions adjacent to mobile genetic elements (MGEs). The most prevalent sublineage of ST131 strains was characterized by fluoroquinolone resistance, and a distinct virulence factor and MGE profile. Four different variants of the CTX-M ESBL–resistance gene were identified in our ST131 strains, with acquisition of CTX-M-15 representing a defining feature of a discrete but geographically dispersed ST131 sublineage. This study confirms the global dispersal of a single E. coli ST131 clone and demonstrates the role of MGEs and recombination in the evolution of this important MDR pathogen.

The serum resistome of a globally disseminated multidrug resistant uropathogenic Escherichia coli Clone

Escherichia coli ST131 is a globally disseminated, multidrug resistant clone responsible for a high proportion of urinary tract and bloodstream infections. The rapid emergence and successful spread of E. coli ST131 is strongly associated with antibiotic resistance; however, this phenotype alone is unlikely to explain its dominance amongst multidrug resistant uropathogens circulating worldwide in hospitals and the community. Thus, a greater understanding of the molecular mechanisms that underpin the fitness of E. coli ST131 is required. In this study, we employed hyper-saturated transposon mutagenesis in combination with multiplexed transposon directed insertion-site sequencing to define the essential genes required for in vitro growth and the serum resistome (i.e. genes required for resistance to human serum) of E. coli EC958, a representative of the predominant E. coli ST131 clonal lineage. We identified 315 essential genes in E. coli EC958, 231 (73%) of which were also essential in E. coli K-12. The serum resistome comprised 56 genes, the majority of which encode membrane proteins or factors involved in lipopolysaccharide (LPS) biosynthesis. Targeted mutagenesis confirmed a role in serum resistance for 46 (82%) of these genes. The murein lipoprotein Lpp, along with two lipid A-core biosynthesis enzymes WaaP and WaaG, were most strongly associated with serum resistance. While LPS was the main resistance mechanism defined for E. coli EC958 in serum, the enterobacterial common antigen and colanic acid also impacted on this phenotype. Our analysis also identified a novel function for two genes, hyxA and hyxR, as minor regulators of O-antigen chain length. This study offers novel insight into the genetic make-up of E. coli ST131, and provides a framework for future research on E. coli and other Gram-negative pathogens to define their essential gene repertoire and to dissect the molecular mechanisms that enable them to survive in the bloodstream and cause disease.

Molecular analysis of type 3 fimbrial genes from Escherichia coli, Klebsiella and Citrobacter species

Background Catheter-associated urinary tract infection (CAUTI) is the most common nosocomial infection in the United States and is caused by a range of uropathogens. Biofilm formation by uropathogens that cause CAUTI is often mediated by cell surface structures such as fimbriae. In this study, we characterised the genes encoding type 3 fimbriae from CAUTI strains of Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Klebsiella oxytoca, Citrobacter koseri and Citrobacter freundii. Results Phylogenetic analysis of the type 3 fimbrial genes (mrkABCD) from 39 strains revealed they clustered into five distinct clades (A-E) ranging from one to twenty-three members. The majority of sequences grouped in clade A, which was represented by the mrk gene cluster from the genome sequenced K. pneumoniae MGH78578. The E. coli and K. pneumoniae mrkABCD gene sequences clustered together in two distinct clades, supporting previous evidence for the occurrence of inter-genera lateral gene transfer. All of the strains examined caused type 3 fimbriae mediated agglutination of tannic acid treated human erythrocytes despite sequence variation in the mrkD-encoding adhesin gene. Type 3 fimbriae deletion mutants were constructed in 13 representative strains and were used to demonstrate a direct role for type 3 fimbriae in biofilm formation. Conclusions The expression of functional type 3 fimbriae is common to many Gram-negative pathogens that cause CAUTI and is strongly associated with biofilm growth. Our data provides additional evidence for the spread of type 3 fimbrial genes by lateral gene transfer. Further work is now required to substantiate the clade structure reported here by examining more strains as well as other bacterial genera that make type 3 fimbriae and cause CAUTI.

Tetraspanins as regulators of the tumour microenvironment : implications for metastasis and therapeutic strategies

One of the hallmarks of cancer is the ability to activate invasion and metastasis (Hanahan et al., 2011). Cancer morbidity and mortality are largely related to the spread of the primary, localised tumour to adjacent and distant sites (Pantel et al., 2004). Appropriate management and treatment decisions of predicting metastatic disease at the time of diagnosis is thus crucial, which supports better understanding of the metastatic process. There are common events that occur during metastasis: dissociation from the primary tumour mass, reorganisation/remodelling of extracellular matrix, cell migration, recognition and transversal of endothelial cells and the vascular circulation and lodgement and proliferation within ectopic stroma (Wells, 2006). One of the key and initial events is the increased capability of cancer cells to move, escaping the regulation of normal physiological control. The cellular cytoskeleton plays an important role in cancer cell motility and active cytoskeletal rearrangement can result in metastatic disease. This active change in cytoskeletal dynamics results in manipulation of plasma membrane and cellular balance between cellular adhesion and motility which in turn determines cancer cell movement. Members of the tetraspanins play important roles in regulation of cancer migration and cancer-endothelial cell interactions, which are critical for cancer invasion and metastasis. Their involvements in active cytoskeletal dynamics, cancer metastasis and potential clinical application will be discussed in this review. In particular, tetraspanin member, CD151, is highlighted for its major role in cancer invasion and metastasis

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

Treatment for prevention of HIV transmission in a localised epidemic : the case for South Australia

Background: Discussion is currently taking place among international HIV/AIDS groups around increasing HIV testing and initiating earlier use of antiretroviral therapy (ART) among people diagnosed with HIV as a method to reduce the spread of HIV. In this study, we explore the expected epidemiological impact of this strategy in a small population in which HIV transmission is predominantly confined to men who have sex with men (MSM). Methods: A deterministic mathematical transmission model was constructed to investigate the impacts of strategies that increase testing and treatment rates, and their likely potential to mitigate HIV epidemics among MSM. Our novel model distinguishes men in the population who are more easily accessible to prevention campaigns through engagement with the gay community from men who are not. This model is applied to the population of MSM in South Australia. Results: Our model-based findings suggest that increasing testing rates alone will have minimal impact on reducing the expected number of infections compared to current conditions. However, in combination with increases in treatment coverage, this strategy could lead to a 59–68% reduction in the number of HIV infections over the next 5 years. Targeting men who are socially engaged with the gay community would result in the majority of potential reductions in incidence, with only minor improvements possible by reaching all other MSM. Conclusions: Investing in strategies that will achieve higher coverage and earlier initiation of treatment to reduce infectiousness of HIV-infected individuals could be an effective strategy for reducing incidence in a population of MSM.

Development of realistic design fire time-temperature curves for the testing of cold-formed steel wall system

Fire resistance rating of light gauge steel frame (LSF) wall systems is obtained from fire tests based on the standard fire time-temperature curve. However, fire severity has increased in modern buildings due to higher fuel loads as a result of modern furniture and light weight constructions that make use of thermoplastics materials, synthetic foams and fabrics. Some of these materials are high in calorific values and increase both the spread of fire growth and heat release rate, thus increasing the fire severity beyond that of the standard fire curve. Further, the standard fire curve does not include a decay phase that is present in natural fires. Despite the increasing usage of LSF walls, their behaviour in real building fires is not fully understood. This paper presents the details of a research study aimed at developing realistic design fire curves for use in the fire tests of LSF walls. It includes a review of the characteristics of building fires, previously developed fire time-temperature curves, computer models and available parametric equations. The paper highlights that real building fire time-temperature curves depend on the fuel load representing the combustible building contents, ventilation openings and thermal properties of wall lining materials, and provides suitable values of many required parameters including fuel loads in residential buildings. Finally, realistic design fire time-temperature curves simulating the fire conditions in modern residential buildings are proposed for the testing of LSF walls.

Key beliefs of hospital nurses’ hand-hygiene behaviour: Protecting your peers and needing effective reminders

Issues addressed: Hand hygiene in hospitals is vital to limit the spread of infections. This study aimed to identify key beliefs underlying hospital nurses’ hand-hygiene decisions to consolidate strategies that encourage compliance. Methods: Informed by a theory of planned behaviour belief framework, nurses from 50 Australian hospitals (n = 797) responded to how likely behavioural beliefs (advantages and disadvantages), normative beliefs (important referents) and control beliefs (barriers) impacted on their hand-hygiene decisions following the introduction of a national ‘5 moments for hand hygiene’ initiative. Two weeks after completing the survey, they reported their hand-hygiene adherence. Stepwise regression analyses identified key beliefs that determined nurses’ hand-hygiene behaviour. Results: Reducing the chance of infection for co-workers influenced nurses’ hygiene behaviour, with lack of time and forgetfulness identified as barriers. Conclusions: Future efforts to improve hand hygiene should highlight the potential impact on colleagues and consider strategies to combat time constraints, as well as implementing workplace reminders to prompt greater hand-hygiene compliance. So what? Rather than emphasising the health of self and patients in efforts to encourage hand-hygiene practices, a focus on peer protection should be adopted and more effective workplace reminders should be implemented to combat forgetting.

Spatial incidence of dengue infections in Queensland, Australia - reply

This study aimed to investigate the spatial clustering and dynamic dispersion of dengue incidence in Queensland, Australia. We used Moran's I statistic to assess the spatial autocorrelation of reported dengue cases. Spatial empirical Bayes smoothing estimates were used to display the spatial distribution of dengue in postal areas throughout Queensland. Local indicators of spatial association (LISA) maps and logistic regression models were used to identify spatial clusters and examine the spatio-temporal patterns of the spread of dengue. The results indicate that the spatial distribution of dengue was clustered during each of the three periods of 1993–1996, 1997–2000 and 2001–2004. The high-incidence clusters of dengue were primarily concentrated in the north of Queensland and low-incidence clusters occurred in the south-east of Queensland. The study concludes that the geographical range of notified dengue cases has significantly expanded in Queensland over recent years.

Broadening the perspective on the airborne transmission of respiratory infection

Airborne bioaerosols are becoming increasingly recognized as a potential route of transmission for the spread of bacterial and viral respiratory tract infections.

Refined Plastic Hinge Analysis of Steel Frame Structures Comprising Non-Compact Sections: I: Formulation

Application of "advanced analysis" methods suitable for non-linear analysis and design of steel frame structures permits direct and accurate determination of ultimate system strengths, without resort to simplified elastic methods of analysis and semi-empirical specification equations. However, the application of advanced analysis methods has previously been restricted to steel frames comprising only compact sections that are not influenced by the effects of local buckling. A concentrated plasticity formulation suitable for practical advanced analysis of steel frame structures comprising non-compact sections is presented in this paper. This formulation, referred to as the refined plastic hinge method, implicitly accounts for the effects of gradual cross-sectional yielding, longitudinal spread of plasticity, initial geometric imperfections, residual stresses, and local buckling.

Anatomy of a trending topic : Methods for the visualisation of retweet chains [Anatomie eines Trending Topics: Methoden zur Visualisierung von Retweet-Ketten]

Twitter and other social networking sites play an ever more present role in the spread of current events. The dynamics of information dissemination through digital network structures are still relatively unexplored, however. At what time an issue is taken up by whom? Who forwards a message when to whom else? What role do individual communication participants, existing digital communities or the technical foundations of each network platform play in the spread of news? In this chapter we discuss, using the example of a video on a current sociopolitical issue in Australia that was shared on Twitter, a number of new methods for the dynamic visualisation and analysis of communication processes. Our method combines temporal and spatial analytical approaches and provides new insights into the spread of news in digital networks. [Social media dienen immer häufger als Disseminationsmechanismen für Medieninhalte. Auf Twitter ermöglicht besonders die Retweet-Funktion den schnellen und weitläufgen Transfer von Nachrichten. In diesem Beitrag etablieren neue methodische Ansätze zur Erfassung, Visualisierung und Analyse von Retweet-Ketten. Insbesondere heben wir hervor, wie bestehende Netzwerkanalysemethoden ergänzt werden können, um den Ablauf der Weiterleitung sowohl temporal als auch spatial zu erfassen. Unsere Fallstudie demonstriert die verbreitung des videoclips einer am 9. Oktober 2012 spontan gehaltenen Wutrede der australischen Premierministerin Julia Gillard, in der sie Oppositionsführer Tony Abbott als Frauenhasser brandmarkte. Durch die Erfassung von Hintergrunddaten zu den jeweiligen NutzerInnen, die sich an der Weiterleitung des Videoclips beteiligten, erstellen wir ein detailliertes Bild des Disseminationsablaufs im vorliegenden Fall. So lassen sich die wichtigsten AkteurInnen und der Ablauf der Weiterleitung darstellen und analysieren. Daraus entstehen Einblicke in die allgemeinen verbreitungsmuster von Nachrichten auf Twitter].