Statistical Physics and Modeling of Human Mobility

In this thesis, we extend some ideas of statistical physics to describe the properties of human mobility. By using a database containing GPS measures of individual paths (position, velocity and covered space at a spatial scale of 2 Km or a time scale of 30 sec), which includes the 2% of the private vehicles in Italy, we succeed in determining some statistical empirical laws pointing out "universal" characteristics of human mobility. Developing simple stochastic models suggesting possible explanations of the empirical observations, we are able to indicate what are the key quantities and cognitive features that are ruling individuals' mobility. To understand the features of individual dynamics, we have studied different aspects of urban mobility from a physical point of view. We discuss the implications of the Benford's law emerging from the distribution of times elapsed between successive trips. We observe how the daily travel-time budget is related with many aspects of the urban environment, and describe how the daily mobility budget is then spent. We link the scaling properties of individual mobility networks to the inhomogeneous average durations of the activities that are performed, and those of the networks describing people's common use of space with the fractional dimension of the urban territory. We study entropy measures of individual mobility patterns, showing that they carry almost the same information of the related mobility networks, but are also influenced by a hierarchy among the activities performed. We discover that Wardrop's principles are violated as drivers have only incomplete information on traffic state and therefore rely on knowledge on the average travel-times. We propose an assimilation model to solve the intrinsic scattering of GPS data on the street network, permitting the real-time reconstruction of traffic state at a urban scale.

Citizen science as a tool for the environmental quality assessment of the Mediterranean coastal habitats

The growing need to assess the environmental status of the Mediterranean coastal marine habitats and the large availability of data collected by Reef Check Italia onlus (RCI) volunteers suggest the possibility to develop innovative and reliable indices that may support decision makers in applying conservation strategies. The aims of this study were to check the reliability of data collected by RCI volunteers, analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of RCI available data, resume the knowledge on the biology and ecology of the monitored species, and develop innovative indices to asses the ecological quality of Mediterranean subtidal rocky shores and coralligenous habitats. Subtidal rocky shores and coralligenous were chosen because these are the habitats more attractive for divers; therefore mlst data are referring to them, moreover subtidal rocky bottom are strongly affected by coastal urbanisation, land use, fishing and tourist activities, that increase pollution, turbidity and sedimentation. Non-indigenous species (NIS) have been recognized as a major threat to the integrity of Mediterranean native communities because of their proliferation, spread and impact on resident communities. Monitoring of NIS’ spreading dynamics at the basin spatial scale is difficult but urgent. According to a field test, the training provided by RCI appears adequate to obtain reliable data by volunteers. Based on data collected by RCI volunteers, three main categories of indices were developed: indices based on species diversity, indices on the occurrence non-indigenous species, and indices on species sensitive toward physical, chemical and biological disturbances. As case studies, indices were applied to stretches of coastline defined according to management criteria (province territories and marine protected areas). The assessments of ecological quality in the Tavolara Marine Protected Area using the species sensitivities index were consisten with those previously obtained with traditional methods.

Holocene land-cover reconstructions for studies on land cover-climate feedbacks

The major objectives of this paper are: (1) to review the pros and cons of the scenarios of past anthropogenic land cover change (ALCC) developed during the last ten years, (2) to discuss issues related to pollen-based reconstruction of the past land-cover and introduce a new method, REVEALS (Regional Estimates of VEgetation Abundance from Large Sites), to infer long-term records of past land-cover from pollen data, (3) to present a new project (LANDCLIM: LAND cover – CLIMate interactions in NW Europe during the Holocene) currently underway, and show preliminary results of REVEALS reconstructions of the regional land-cover in the Czech Republic for five selected time windows of the Holocene, and (4) to discuss the implications and future directions in climate and vegetation/land-cover modeling, and in the assessment of the effects of human-induced changes in land-cover on the regional climate through altered feedbacks. The existing ALCC scenarios show large discrepancies between them, and few cover time periods older than AD 800. When these scenarios are used to assess the impact of human land-use on climate, contrasting results are obtained. It emphasizes the need for methods such as the REVEALS model-based land-cover reconstructions. They might help to fine-tune descriptions of past land-cover and lead to a better understanding of how long-term changes in ALCC might have influenced climate. The REVEALS model is demonstrated to provide better estimates of the regional vegetation/land-cover changes than the traditional use of pollen percentages. This will achieve a robust assessment of land cover at regional- to continental-spatial scale throughout the Holocene. We present maps of REVEALS estimates for the percentage cover of 10 plant functional types (PFTs) at 200 BP and 6000 BP, and of the two open-land PFTs "grassland" and "agricultural land" at five time-windows from 6000 BP to recent time. The LANDCLIM results are expected to provide crucial data to reassess ALCC estimates for a better understanding of the land suface-atmosphere interactions.

Metacommunity Dynamics Of Benthic Macroinvertebrates In A Large River

Metacommunity ecology focuses on the interaction between local communities and is inherently linked to dispersal as a result. Within this framework, communities are structured by a combination of in-site responses to the immediate environment (species sorting), stochasticity (patch dynamics), and connections to other communities via distance between communities and dispersal (neutrality), and source-sink dynamics (mass effects; see Chapter 1 for a detailed description of metacommunity theory, the study site, and macroinvertebrate communities found). In Chapter 2 I describe spatial scale of study and dispersal ability as both have the ability to influence the degree to which communities interact. However, little is known about how these factors influence the importance of all metacommunity dynamics. I compared dispersal mode of immature aquatic insects and dispersal ability of winged adults across multiple spatial scales in a large river. The strongest drivers of river communities were patch dynamics, followed by species sorting, then neutrality. Active dispersers during aquatic lifestages on average exhibited lower patch dynamics, higher species sorting, and significant mass effects compared to passive dispersers. Active and strong dispersers also had a scale-independent influence of neutrality, while neutrality was stronger at broader spatial scale for passive and weak dispersers. These results indicate as dispersal ability increases patch dynamics decreases, species sorting increases, and neutrality should decrease. The perceived influence of neutrality may also be dependent on spatial scale and dispersal ability. In Chapter 3 I describe how river benthic macroinvertebrate communities may influence tributary invertebrate communities via adult flight and tributaries may influence mainstem communities via immature drift. This relationship may also depend on relative mainstem and tributary size, as well as abiotic tributary influence on mainstem habitat. To investigate the interaction between a larger river and tributary I sampled mainstem benthic invertebrate communities and quantified habitat of a 7th order river (West Branch Susquehanna River) above and below a 5th order tributary confluence, as well as 0.95-3.2 km upstream in the tributary. Non-metric multidimensional scaling showed similar patterns of clustering between sampling locations for both habitat characteristics and invertebrate communities. In addition, mainstem river communities and habitat directly downstream of the tributary confluence cluster tightly together, intermediate between tributary and mid-channel river samples. In Bray-Curtis dissimilarity comparisons between tributary and mainstem river communities the furthest upstream tributary communities were least similar to river communities. Middle tributary samples were also closest by Euclidean distance to the upstream mainstem riffle and exhibited higher similarity to mid-channel samples than the furthest downstream tributary communities. My results indicate river and tributary benthic invertebrate communities may interact and likely result in direct and indirect mass effects of a tributary on the downstream mainstem community by invertebrate drift and habitat restructuring via material delivery from the tributary. I also showed likely direct effects of adult dispersal from the river and oviposition in proximal tributary locations where Euclidian, rather than river, distance may be more important in determining river-tributary interactions.

Comparison of climate field reconstruction techniques: Application to Europe

This paper presents a comparison of principal component (PC) regression and regularized expectation maximization (RegEM) to reconstruct European summer and winter surface air temperature over the past millennium. Reconstruction is performed within a surrogate climate using the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Climate System Model (CSM) 1.4 and the climate model ECHO-G 4, assuming different white and red noise scenarios to define the distortion of pseudoproxy series. We show how sensitivity tests lead to valuable “a priori” information that provides a basis for improving real world proxy reconstructions. Our results emphasize the need to carefully test and evaluate reconstruction techniques with respect to the temporal resolution and the spatial scale they are applied to. Furthermore, we demonstrate that uncertainties inherent to the predictand and predictor data have to be more rigorously taken into account. The comparison of the two statistical techniques, in the specific experimental setting presented here, indicates that more skilful results are achieved with RegEM as low frequency variability is better preserved. We further detect seasonal differences in reconstruction skill for the continental scale, as e.g. the target temperature average is more adequately reconstructed for summer than for winter. For the specific predictor network given in this paper, both techniques underestimate the target temperature variations to an increasing extent as more noise is added to the signal, albeit RegEM less than with PC regression. We conclude that climate field reconstruction techniques can be improved and need to be further optimized in future applications.

Finding Homogeneity in Heterogeneity - A New Approach to Quantifying Landscape Mosaics Developed for the Lao PDR

A key challenge for land change science in general and research on swidden agriculture in particular, is linking land cover information to human–environment interactions over larger spatial areas. In Lao PDR, a country facing rapid and multi-level land change processes, this hinders informed policy- and decision-making. Crucial information on land use types and people involved is still lacking. This article proposes an alternative approach for the description of landscape mosaics. Instead of analyzing local land use combinations, we studied land cover mosaics at a meso-level of spatial scale and interpreted these in terms of human–environmental interactions. These landscape mosaics were then overlaid with population census data. Results showed that swidden agricultural landscapes, involving 17% of the population, dominate 29% of the country, while permanent agricultural landscapes involve 74% of the population in 29% of the territory. Forests still form an important component of these landscape mosaics.

Arctic Winds in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”

Climate in the European part of the Arctic underwent a rapid warming between the 1910s and the 1930s. Previous studies have addressed the role of atmospheric circulation in this period based on geopotential height fields because observations of upper-level winds in the Arctic are rare. Here we analyse winds over the Arctic and specifically over Spitsbergen in the “Twentieth Century Reanalyses” (20CR). We compare in situ upper-air wind measurements performed in 1912 and 1913 in Spitsbergen with six-hourly 20CR data. Furthermore, we compare monthly-to-seasonal 20CR winds at 700 hPa over the European Arctic with statistically reconstructed winds at 3 km altitude. Finally, we analyse long-term trends in Arctic winds in 20CR. The general agreement between observed upper-air winds and 20CR on the day-to-day scale is rather poor, which is not surprising given the paucity of observations in the Arctic at that time that constrain 20CR. In contrast, the seasonally averaged winds (which represent a larger spatial scale) in 20CR compare well with statistically reconstructed winds. The analysis of long term near-surface wind time series in 20CR shows arguably artificial trends from 1871 to around the 1950s over sparsely observed regions, particularly oceanic regions. Densely observed regions such as Europe or the USA show no such trends. This analysis shows that great care needs to be taken when working with 20CR in the Arctic and other sparsely observed regions.

Repeated and predictable patterns of ecotypic differentiation during a biological invasion: lake-stream divergence in parapatric Swiss stickleback

The relative importance of ecological selection and geographical isolation in promoting and constraining genetic and phenotypic differentiation among populations is not always obvious. Interacting with divergent selection, restricted opportunity for gene flow may in some cases be as much a cause as a consequence of adaptation, with the latter being a hallmark of ecologi- cal speciation. Ecological speciation is well studied in parts of the native range of the three-spined stickleback. Here, we study this process in a recently invaded part of its range. Switzerland was colonized within the past 140 years from at least three different colonization events involving differ- ent stickleback lineages. They now occupy diverse habitats, ranging from small streams to the pelagic zone of large lakes. We use replicated systems of parapatric lake and stream populations, some of which trace their origins to different invasive lineages, to ask (i) whether phenotypic divergence occurred among populations inhabiting distinct habitats, (ii) whether trajec- tories of phenotypic divergence follow predictable parallel patterns and (iii) whether gene flow constrains divergent adaptation or vice versa. We find consistent phenotypic divergence between populations occupying distinct habitats. This involves parallel evolution in several traits with known eco- logical relevance in independent evolutionary lineages. Adaptive divergence supersedes homogenizing gene flow even at a small spatial scale. We find evidence that adaptive phenotypic divergence places constraints on gene flow over and above that imposed by geographical distance, signalling the early onset of ecological speciation.

Transport of 234U in the Opalinus Clay on centimetre to decimetre scales

The Opalinus Clay formation in North Switzerland is a potential host rock for a deep underground radioactive waste repository. The distribution of U-238, U-234 and Th-230 was studied in rock samples of the Opalinus Clay from an exploratory borehole at Benken (Canton of Zurich) using MC-ICP-MS. The aim of U-234 was to assess the in situ, long-term migration behaviour in this rock. Very low hydraulic conductivities of the Opalinus Clay, reducing potential of the pore water and its chemical equilibrium with the host rock are expected to render both U-238 and Th-230 immobile. If U is heterogeneously distributed in the Opalinus Clay, gradients in the supply of U-234 from the rock matrix to the pore water by the decay of U-238 will be established. Diffusive redistribution separates U-234 from its immobile parent U-238 resulting in bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity disequilibria. These may provide a means of estimating the mobility of U-234 in the rock if the diffusion rate of U-234 is significant compared to its decay rate. Sampling was carried out on two scales. Drilling of cm-spaced samples from the drill-core was done to study mobility over short distances and elucidate possible small-scale lithological control. Homogenized 25-cm-long portions of a 2-m-long drill-core section were prepared to provide information on transport over a longer distance. Variations in U and/or Th content on the cm-scale between clays and carbonate-sandy layers are revealed by beta-scanning, which shows that the (dominant) clay is richer in both elements. Samples were digested using aqua regia followed by total HF dissolution, yielding two fractions. in all studied samples U was found to be concentrated in the HF digestion fraction. It has a high U/Th ratio and a study by SEM-EDS points to sub-mu m up to several mu m in size zircon grains as the main U-rich phase. This fraction consistently has U-234/U-238 activity ratios below unity. The minute zircon grains constitute the major reservoir of U in the rock and act as constant rate suppliers of U-234 into the rock matrix and the pore water. The aqua regia leach fraction was found to be enriched in Th, and complementary to the HF fraction, having U-234/U-238 activity ratios above unity. It is believed that these U activity ratios reflect the surplus of having U-234 delivered from the zircon grains. Some cm-spaced samples show bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios that are markedly out of equilibrium. In most of them a striking negative correlation between the total U content and the bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios is observed. This is interpreted to indicate net U-234 transfer from regions of higher supply of U-234 towards those of lower supply which is, in most cases, equivalent to transfer from clayey towards carbonate/sandy portions of the rock. In contrast, the 25 cm averaged samples all have uniform bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios in equilibrium, indicating U immobility in the last 1-1.5 Ma on this spatial scale. It is concluded that the small-scale lithological variations which govern U spatial distribution in the Opalinus Clay are the major factor determining U-234 in situ supply rates, regulating its diffusive fluxes and controlling the observed bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios. A simple box-model is presented to simulate the measured bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios and to give an additional insight into the studied system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Pollen-based quantitative reconstructions of Holocene regional vegetation cover (plant-functional types and land-cover types) in Europe suitable for climate modelling

We present quantitative reconstructions of regional vegetation cover in north-western Europe, western Europe north of the Alps, and eastern Europe for five time windows in the Holocene around 6k, 3k, 0.5k, 0.2k, and 0.05k calendar years before present (bp)] at a 1 degrees x1 degrees spatial scale with the objective of producing vegetation descriptions suitable for climate modelling. The REVEALS model was applied on 636 pollen records from lakes and bogs to reconstruct the past cover of 25 plant taxa grouped into 10 plant-functional types and three land-cover types evergreen trees, summer-green (deciduous) trees, and open land]. The model corrects for some of the biases in pollen percentages by using pollen productivity estimates and fall speeds of pollen, and by applying simple but robust models of pollen dispersal and deposition. The emerging patterns of tree migration and deforestation between 6k bp and modern time in the REVEALS estimates agree with our general understanding of the vegetation history of Europe based on pollen percentages. However, the degree of anthropogenic deforestation (i.e. cover of cultivated and grazing land) at 3k, 0.5k, and 0.2k bp is significantly higher than deduced from pollen percentages. This is also the case at 6k in some parts of Europe, in particular Britain and Ireland. Furthermore, the relationship between summer-green and evergreen trees, and between individual tree taxa, differs significantly when expressed as pollen percentages or as REVEALS estimates of tree cover. For instance, when Pinus is dominant over Picea as pollen percentages, Picea is dominant over Pinus as REVEALS estimates. These differences play a major role in the reconstruction of European landscapes and for the study of land cover-climate interactions, biodiversity and human resources.

Gene flow and the maintenance of species boundaries

Hybrid zones are regions where individuals from genetically differentiated populations meet and mate, resulting in at least some offspring of mixed ancestry. Patterns of gene flow (introgression) in hybrid zones vary across the genome, allowing assessment of the role of individual genes or genome regions in reproductive isolation. Here, we document patterns of introgression between two recently diverged species of field crickets. We sampled at a very fine spatial scale and genotyped crickets for 110 highly differentiated single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified through transcriptome scans. Using both genomic and geographic cline analysis, we document remarkably abrupt transitions (<100 m) in allele frequencies for 50 loci, despite high levels of gene flow at other loci. These are among the steepest clines documented for any hybridizing taxa. Furthermore, the cricket hybrid zone provides one of the clearest examples of the semi-permeability of species boundaries. Comparisons between data from the fine-scale transect and data (for the same set of markers) from sampling a much larger area in a different region of the cricket hybrid zone reveal consistent patterns of introgression for individual loci. The consistency in patterns of introgression between these two distant and distinct regions of the hybrid zone suggests that strong selection is acting to maintain abrupt discontinuities within the hybrid zone and that genomic regions with restricted introgression likely include genes that contribute to nonecological prezygotic barriers.

Pits formation from volatile outgassing on 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko

We investigate the thermal evolution of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko's subsurface in the Seth_01 region, where active pits have been observed by the ESA/Rosetta mission. Our simulations show that clathrate destabilization and amorphous ice crystallization can occur at depths corresponding to those of the observed pits in a timescale shorter than 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko's lifetime in the comet's activity zone in the inner solar system. Sublimation of crystalline ice down to such depths is possible only in the absence of a dust mantle, which requires the presence of dust grains in the matrix small enough to be dragged out by gas from the pores. Our results are consistent with both pits formation via sinkholes or subsequent to outbursts, the dominant process depending on the status of the subsurface porosity. A sealed dust mantle would favor episodic and disruptive outgassing as a result of increasing gas pressure in the pores, while high porosity should allow the formation of large voids in the subsurface due to the continuous escape of volatiles. We finally conclude that the subsurface of 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko is not uniform at a spatial scale of similar to 100-200 m.

Extracting more out of relocation data: building movement models as mixtures of random walks

We present a framework for fitting multiple random walks to animal movement paths consisting of ordered sets of step lengths and turning angles. Each step and turn is assigned to one of a number of random walks, each characteristic of a different behavioral state. Behavioral state assignments may be inferred purely from movement data or may include the habitat type in which the animals are located. Switching between different behavioral states may be modeled explicitly using a state transition matrix estimated directly from data, or switching probabilities may take into account the proximity of animals to landscape features. Model fitting is undertaken within a Bayesian framework using the WinBUGS software. These methods allow for identification of different movement states using several properties of observed paths and lead naturally to the formulation of movement models. Analysis of relocation data from elk released in east-central Ontario, Canada, suggests a biphasic movement behavior: elk are either in an "encamped" state in which step lengths are small and turning angles are high, or in an "exploratory" state, in which daily step lengths are several kilometers and turning angles are small. Animals encamp in open habitat (agricultural fields and opened forest), but the exploratory state is not associated with any particular habitat type.

Aboveground community and species-specific plant biomass from the Jena Experiment (Main Experiment, year 2004)

This data set contains aboveground community biomass (Sown plant community, Weed plant community, Dead plant material, and Unidentified plant material; all measured in biomass as dry weight) and species-specific biomass from the sown species of the main experiment plots of a large grassland biodiversity experiment (the Jena Experiment; see further details below). In the main experiment, 82 grassland plots of 20 x 20 m were established from a pool of 60 species belonging to four functional groups (grasses, legumes, tall and small herbs). In May 2002, varying numbers of plant species from this species pool were sown into the plots to create a gradient of plant species richness (1, 2, 4, 8, 16 and 60 species) and functional richness (1, 2, 3, 4 functional groups). Plots were maintained by bi-annual weeding and mowing. Aboveground community biomass was harvested twice in 2004 just prior to mowing (during peak standing biomass in late May and in late August) on all experimental plots of the main experiment. This was done by clipping the vegetation at 3 cm above ground in four rectangles of 0.2 x 0.5 m per large plot. The location of these rectangles was assigned prior to each harvest by random selection of coordinates within the core area of the plots (i.e. the central 10 x 15 m). The positions of the rectangles within plots were identical for all plots. The harvested biomass was sorted into categories: individual species for the sown plant species, weed plant species (species not sown at the particular plot), detached dead plant material (i.e., dead plant material in the data file), and remaining plant material that could not be assigned to any category (i.e., unidentified plant material in the data file). All biomass was dried to constant weight (70°C, >= 48 h) and weighed. Sown plant community biomass was calculated as the sum of the biomass of the individual sown species. The data for individual samples and the mean over samples for the biomass measures on the community level are given. Overall, analyses of the community biomass data have identified species richness as well as functional group composition as important drivers of a positive biodiversity-productivity relationship.