Hierarchical Shrinkage in Time-Varying Parameter Models

In this paper, we forecast EU-area inflation with many predictors using time-varying parameter models. The facts that time-varying parameter models are parameter-rich and the time span of our data is relatively short motivate a desire for shrinkage. In constant coefficient regression models, the Bayesian Lasso is gaining increasing popularity as an effective tool for achieving such shrinkage. In this paper, we develop econometric methods for using the Bayesian Lasso with time-varying parameter models. Our approach allows for the coefficient on each predictor to be: i) time varying, ii) constant over time or iii) shrunk to zero. The econometric methodology decides automatically which category each coefficient belongs in. Our empirical results indicate the benefits of such an approach.

Viral envelope glycoprotein processing by proprotein convertases.

The proprotein convertases (PCs) are a family of nine mammalian enzymes that play key roles in the maintenance of cell homeostasis by activating or inactivating proteins via limited proteolysis under temporal and spatial control. A wide range of pathogens, including major human pathogenic viruses can hijack cellular PCs for their own purposes. In particular, productive infection with many enveloped viruses critically depends on the processing of their fusion-active viral envelope glycoproteins by cellular PCs. Based on their crucial role in virus-host interaction, PCs can be important determinants for viral pathogenesis and represent promising targets of therapeutic antiviral intervention. In the present review we will cover basic aspects and recent developments of PC-mediated maturation of viral envelope glycoproteins of selected medically important viruses. The molecular mechanisms underlying the recognition of PCs by viral glycoproteins will be described, including recent findings demonstrating differential PC-recognition of viral and cellular substrates. We will further discuss a possible scenario how viruses during co-evolution with their hosts adapted their glycoproteins to modulate the activity of cellular PCs for their own benefit and discuss the consequences for virus-host interaction and pathogenesis. Particular attention will be given to past and current efforts to evaluate cellular PCs as targets for antiviral therapeutic intervention, with emphasis on emerging highly pathogenic viruses for which no efficacious drugs or vaccines are currently available.

Occurrence of "Nuages" and "Lamellae Anulata" during spermatogenesis in Dermatobia hominis (Diptera: Cuterebridae)

Various types of "nuages" and "lamellae anulata" can be found during Dermatobia hominis spermatogenesis. In spermatogonia, the "nuages" occur as granules juxtaposed to the cytoplasmic face of the nuclear envelope or as cytoplasmic granules similar to glycogen granules. In spermatocytes, in addition to the "nuages", dense spherical bodies of approximately 1.0 µm in diameter are also observed. In the spermatids the "nuages" can be of the following types: perinuclear granules, spherical granules with diameters varying in length from 0.5 to 1.0 µm, granules similar to glycogen granules, granules with variable diameters which accumulate at the flagellum base forming the centriole adjunct, or remain in the cytoplasm. "Nuages" can also be observed in these cellular types as dense masses, without a definite outline and are common to animal germinal cells in general. The "lamellae anulata" on the other hand, are observed only in spermatocytes I and in early spermatids, being always immersed in electron-dense material of indefinite outline. In spermatids, the "lamellae anulata" are close to the nuclear envelope suggesting, in spite of opposing opinions, that these cells are envolved in the synthesis and transport of material from the nucleus to the cytoplasm.

Effect of diets high or low in unavailable and slowly digestible carbohydrates on the pattern of 24-h substrate oxidation and feelings of hunger in humans.

BACKGROUND: The pattern of substrate utilization with diets containing a high or a low proportion of unavailable and slowly digestible carbohydrates may constitute an important factor in the control, time course, and onset of hunger in humans. OBJECTIVE: We tested the hypothesis that isoenergetic diets differing only in their content of unavailable carbohydrates would result in different time courses of total, endogenous, and exogenous carbohydrate oxidation rates. DESIGN: Two diets with either a high (H diet) or a low (L diet) content of unavailable carbohydrates were fed to 14 healthy subjects studied during two 24-h periods in a metabolic chamber. Substrate utilization was assessed by whole-body indirect calorimetry. In a subgroup of 8 subjects, endogenous and exogenous carbohydrate oxidation were assessed by prelabeling the body glycogen stores with [(13)C]carbohydrate. Subjective feelings of hunger were estimated with use of visual analogue scales. RESULTS: Total energy expenditure and substrate oxidation did not differ significantly between the 2 diets. However, there was a significant effect of diet (P: = 0.03) on the carbohydrate oxidation pattern: the H diet elicited a lower and delayed rise of postprandial carbohydrate oxidation and was associated with lower hunger feelings than was the L diet. The differences in hunger scores between the 2 diets were significantly associated with the differences in the pattern of carbohydrate oxidation among diets (r = -0.67, P: = 0. 006). Exogenous and endogenous carbohydrate oxidation were not significantly influenced by diet. CONCLUSIONS: The pattern of carbohydrate utilization is involved in the modulation of hunger feelings. The greater suppression of hunger after the H diet than after the L diet may be helpful, at least over the short term, in individuals attempting to better control their food intake.

An approximation algorithm for #k-SAT

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt"

Approximation algorithms for two-state anti-ferromagnetic spin systems on bounded degree graphs

In a seminal paper [10], Weitz gave a deterministic fully polynomial approximation scheme for counting exponentially weighted independent sets (which is the same as approximating the partition function of the hard-core model from statistical physics) in graphs of degree at most d, up to the critical activity for the uniqueness of the Gibbs measure on the innite d-regular tree. ore recently Sly [8] (see also [1]) showed that this is optimal in the sense that if here is an FPRAS for the hard-core partition function on graphs of maximum egree d for activities larger than the critical activity on the innite d-regular ree then NP = RP. In this paper we extend Weitz's approach to derive a deterministic fully polynomial approximation scheme for the partition function of general two-state anti-ferromagnetic spin systems on graphs of maximum degree d, up to the corresponding critical point on the d-regular tree. The main ingredient of our result is a proof that for two-state anti-ferromagnetic spin systems on the d-regular tree, weak spatial mixing implies strong spatial mixing. his in turn uses a message-decay argument which extends a similar approach proposed recently for the hard-core model by Restrepo et al [7] to the case of general two-state anti-ferromagnetic spin systems.

Credit risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model: a fast wavelet expansion approximation

To measure the contribution of individual transactions inside the total risk of a credit portfolio is a major issue in financial institutions. VaR Contributions (VaRC) and Expected Shortfall Contributions (ESC) have become two popular ways of quantifying the risks. However, the usual Monte Carlo (MC) approach is known to be a very time consuming method for computing these risk contributions. In this paper we consider the Wavelet Approximation (WA) method for Value at Risk (VaR) computation presented in [Mas10] in order to calculate the Expected Shortfall (ES) and the risk contributions under the Vasicek one-factor model framework. We decompose the VaR and the ES as a sum of sensitivities representing the marginal impact on the total portfolio risk. Moreover, we present technical improvements in the Wavelet Approximation (WA) that considerably reduce the computational effort in the approximation while, at the same time, the accuracy increases.

Leishmania (Leishmania) major-infected rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) develop varying levels of resistance against homologous re-infections

Seven rhesus macaques were infected intradermally with 10(7) promastigotes of Leishmania (Leishmania) major. All monkeys developed a localized, ulcerative, self-healing nodular skin lesion at the site of inoculation of the parasite. Non-specific chronic inflammation and/or tuberculoid-type granulomatous reaction were the main histopathological manifestations of the disease. Serum Leishmania-specific antibodies (IgG and IgG1) were detected by ELISA in all infected animals; immunoblot analyses indicated that numerous antigens were recognized. A very high degree of variability was observed in the parasite-specific cell-mediated immune responses [as detected by measuring delayed-type hypersensitivity (DTH) reaction, in vitro lymphocyte proliferation, and gamma interferon (IFN-gamma) production] for individuals over time post challenge. From all the recovered monkeys (which showed resolution of the lesions after 11 weeks of infection), 57.2% (4/7) and 28.6% (2/7) animals remained susceptible to secondary and tertiary infections, respectively, but the disease severity was altered (i.e. lesion size was smaller and healed faster than in the primary infection). The remaining monkeys exhibited complete resistance (i.e. no lesion) to each rechallenge. Despite the inability to consistently detect correlates of cell-mediated immunity to Leishmania or correlation between resistance to challenge and DTH, lymphocyte transformation or IFN-gamma production, partial or complete acquired resistance was conferred by experimental infection. This primate model should be useful for measuring vaccine effectiveness against the human disease.

Release of extracellular particles by recombinant vaccinia virus over-expressing the major envelope protein p37K.

During the replication cycle of vaccinia virus, four different forms of viral particles are produced. The two extracellular enveloped forms, cell-associated enveloped virus and extracellular enveloped virus, are responsible for cell-to-cell transmission and long-range spread of infection both in vivo and in vitro. Despite the biological importance of the enveloped forms, the mechanism of envelopment and the components involved in this process have been analysed only recently. Therefore the individual steps and the rate-limiting factors of the envelopment process are still unknown. The protein p37K, an unglycosylated but acylated envelope protein of molecular mass 37 kDa, has been shown to be essential for envelopment. However, this study shows that over-expression of p37K by vaccinia virus recombinants reduces rather than increases the yield of infectious enveloped virus which is mainly due to the enveloped virions exhibiting a strongly diminished specific infectivity.

Envelope glycoprotein of arenaviruses.

Arenaviruses include lethal human pathogens which pose serious public health threats. So far, no FDA approved vaccines are available against arenavirus infections, and therapeutic options are limited, making the identification of novel drug targets for the development of efficacious therapeutics an urgent need. Arenaviruses are comprised of two RNA genome segments and four proteins, the polymerase L, the envelope glycoprotein GP, the matrix protein Z, and the nucleoprotein NP. A crucial step in the arenavirus life-cycle is the biosynthesis and maturation of the GP precursor (GPC) by cellular signal peptidases and the cellular enzyme Subtilisin Kexin Isozyme-1 (SKI-1)/Site-1 Protease (S1P) yielding a tripartite mature GP complex formed by GP1/GP2 and a stable signal peptide (SSP). GPC cleavage by SKI-1/S1P is crucial for fusion competence and incorporation of mature GP into nascent budding virion particles. In a first part of our review, we cover basic aspects and newer developments in the biosynthesis of arenavirus GP and its molecular interaction with SKI-1/S1P. A second part will then highlight the potential of SKI-1/S1P-mediated processing of arenavirus GPC as a novel target for therapeutic intervention to combat human pathogenic arenaviruses.

Neutralizing and protective antibodies directed against vaccinia virus envelope antigens.

The infection mechanism of vaccinia virus is largely unknown. Neither the attachment protein of extracellular enveloped virus (EEV), the biologically relevant infectious form of the virus, nor its cellular receptor has been identified. Surprisingly, all former attempts using antibodies to block EEV infection of cells in vitro had failed. Here, we report the production of an anti-envelope hyperimmune serum with EEV neutralizing activity and show that a polyclonal antiserum against the extraviral domain of protein B5R also inhibited EEV infection. In vivo, mice vaccinated with B5R protein were protected against a lethal vaccinia virus challenge. This protectivity is likely to be mediated by neutralizing antibodies. Protein A33R, but not A34R and A36R, also proved to be protective in active and passive vaccination experiments. However, in contrast to B5R, A33R protectivity did not correlate with antibody titers. Because anti-A33R antibodies did not neutralize EEV in vitro, the protectivity mediated by A33R protein probably involves a mechanism different from simple antibody binding. Taken together, our results suggest that antibodies to a specific protective epitope or epitopes on protein B5R are able to prevent EEV infection. The protein encoded by the B5R gene is therefore likely to play a crucial role in the initial steps of vaccinia virus infection-binding to a host cell and entry into its cytoplasm.

The robustness of the weak selection approximation for the evolution of altruism against strong selection.

The weak selection approximation of population genetics has made possible the analysis of social evolution under a considerable variety of biological scenarios. Despite its extensive usage, the accuracy of weak selection in predicting the emergence of altruism under limited dispersal when selection intensity increases remains unclear. Here, we derive the condition for the spread of an altruistic mutant in the infinite island model of dispersal under a Moran reproductive process and arbitrary strength of selection. The simplicity of the model allows us to compare weak and strong selection regimes analytically. Our results demonstrate that the weak selection approximation is robust to moderate increases in selection intensity and therefore provides a good approximation to understand the invasion of altruism in spatially structured population. In particular, we find that the weak selection approximation is excellent even if selection is very strong, when either migration is much stronger than selection or when patches are large. Importantly, we emphasize that the weak selection approximation provides the ideal condition for the invasion of altruism, and increasing selection intensity will impede the emergence of altruism. We discuss that this should also hold for more complicated life cycles and for culturally transmitted altruism. Using the weak selection approximation is therefore unlikely to miss out on any demographic scenario that lead to the evolution of altruism under limited dispersal.

Early and late skin reactions to radiotherapy for breast cancer and their correlation with radiation-induced DNA damage in lymphocytes

INTRODUCTION Radiotherapy outcomes might be further improved by a greater understanding of the individual variations in normal tissue reactions that determine tolerance. Most published studies on radiation toxicity have been performed retrospectively. Our prospective study was launched in 1996 to measure the in vitro radiosensitivity of peripheral blood lymphocytes before treatment with radical radiotherapy in patients with breast cancer, and to assess the early and the late radiation skin side effects in the same group of patients. We prospectively recruited consecutive breast cancer patients receiving radiation therapy after breast surgery. To evaluate whether early and late side effects of radiotherapy can be predicted by the assay, a study was conducted of the association between the results of in vitro radiosensitivity tests and acute and late adverse radiation effects. METHODS Intrinsic molecular radiosensitivity was measured by using an initial radiation-induced DNA damage assay on lymphocytes obtained from breast cancer patients before radiotherapy. Acute reactions were assessed in 108 of these patients on the last treatment day. Late morbidity was assessed after 7 years of follow-up in some of these patients. The Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) morbidity score system was used for both assessments. RESULTS Radiosensitivity values obtained using the in vitro test showed no relation with the acute or late adverse skin reactions observed. There was no evidence of a relation between acute and late normal tissue reactions assessed in the same patients. A positive relation was found between the treatment volume and both early and late side effects. CONCLUSION After radiation treatment, a number of cells containing major changes can have a long survival and disappear very slowly, becoming a chronic focus of immunological system stimulation. This stimulation can produce, in a stochastic manner, late radiation-related adverse effects of varying severity. Further research is warranted to identify the major determinants of normal tissue radiation response to make it possible to individualize treatments and improve the outcome of radiotherapy in cancer patients.

A First approximation to the realism/idealism debate about the external world

El text intenta fer una primera aproximació al debat contemporani entre realistes i anti-realistes sobre el món empíric, centrant-se en les posicions de Putnam i Nagel. El seu objectiu principal és el d'entendre les motivacions de les posicions i l'estructura actual del debat, i el d'establir les característiques que hauria de tenir qualsevol posició satisfactòria