X-13arima-seats com R: um estudo de caso para a produção industrial brasileira

Esse artigo apresenta o uso do programa de ajuste sazonal X-13ARIMA-SEATS desenvolvido e mantido por US Census Bureau. O programa é mundialmente utilizado por órgãos de estatística e, em alguns lugares, ainda em sua versão anterior. O ajuste sazonal é implementado no software R e aplicado na série temporal do índice de produção industrial geral do Brasil. As ferramentas disponíveis pelo programa permitiram aprimorar o ajuste automático e diagnosticá-lo de forma adequada. Apresenta-se também uma rotina para executar o ajuste sazonal em mais de uma série simultaneamente, uma vez que, geralmente, as instituições que realizam tal procedimento, não o fazem para apenas uma série temporal.

Estudo da prevalência do vírus Influenza A e B numa amostragem populacional do Arquipélago da Madeira

As infecções respiratórias de etiologia viral constituem um problema alarmante de Saúde Pública, sendo responsáveis pelo elevado e constante aumento dos índices de morbimortalidade registados no Mundo associados ao vírus influenza. O presente estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a prevalência dos anticorpos IgG e IgM em soros de utentes com requisições para análises serológicas ao vírus influenza A e B. Os utentes foram atendidos entre 1 de Abril de 2009 e 30 de Abril de 2011. Outro objectivo foi determinar a epidemiologia do vírus pandémico A (H1N1) 2009 nos indivíduos com sintomatologia de gripe durante o período entre Julho de 2009 e Julho de 2010 utilizando a técnica de RT-PCR em amostras de exsudado (ou aspirado) nasofaríngeo. Tendo por base o universo de amostragem de 981 indivíduos, constatou-se que 10,7 e 8,2% da população analisada apresenta valores positivos de anticorpos IgM e IgG indicativos de infecção pelo vírus influenza A e B, respectivamente. Constatou-se, também, que entre os 1934 indivíduos submetidos a procedimentos de diagnóstico laboratorial para a detecção de infecção pelo vírus pandémico A (H1N1) 2009, cerca de 747 (38,6%) estavam infectados. Verificou-se que, a população mais jovem foi mais susceptível à infecção pelo vírus influenza A (H1N1) 2009. Isto difere da típica época de gripe sazonal, na qual as pessoas mais idosas estão mais propensas a tornarem-se infectadas e a desenvolver doença grave por influenza A e/ou B. A prevalência de gripe na RAM é reduzida – um dos aspectos plausíveis que justifiquem esta afirmação poderá dever-se às características genéticas da população da RAM estudada. Embora seja de elevada relevância salientar que o Programa Regional de Vacinação (PRV) da RAM tem alcançado reconhecimento nacional e internacional devido às excelentes taxas de cobertura vacinal, fruto da atitude entre cidadãos e profissionais de saúde.

Análise de volatilidade, integração de preços e previsibilidade para o mercado brasileiro de camarão

The present paper has the purpose of investigate the dynamics of the volatility structure in the shrimp prices in the Brazilian fish market. Therefore, a description of the initial aspects of the shrimp price series was made. From this information, statistics tests were made and selected univariate models to be price predictors. Then, it was verified the existence of relationship of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American imported shrimp and if, confirmed the relationship, whether or not there is a causal link between these assets, considering that the two countries had presented trade relations over the years. It is presented as an exploratory research of applied nature with quantitative approach. The database was collected through direct contact with the Companhia de Entrepostos e Armazéns Gerais de São Paulo (CEAGESP) and on the official website of American import, National Marine Fisheries Service - National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NMFS- NOAA). The results showed that the great variability in the active price is directly related with the gain and loss of the market agents. The price series presents a strong seasonal and biannual effect. The average structure of price of shrimp in the last 12 years was R$ 11.58 and external factors besides the production and marketing (U.S. antidumping, floods and pathologies) strongly affected the prices. Among the tested models for predicting prices of shrimp, four were selected, which through the prediction methodologies of one step forward of horizon 12, proved to be statistically more robust. It was found that there is weak evidence of long-term equilibrium between the Brazilian and American shrimp, where equivalently, was not found a causal link between them. We concluded that the dynamic pricing of commodity shrimp is strongly influenced by external productive factors and that these phenomena cause seasonal effects in the prices. There is no relationship of long-term stability between the Brazilian and American shrimp prices, but it is known that Brazil imports USA production inputs, which somehow shows some dependence productive. To the market agents, the risk of interferences of the external prices cointegrated to Brazilian is practically inexistent. Through statistical modeling is possible to minimize the risk and uncertainty embedded in the fish market, thus, the sales and marketing strategies for the Brazilian shrimp can be consolidated and widespread

Análise da estrutura e transporte do zooplâncton no estuário do Rio Caravelas (Bahia-Brasil) através do uso do zooscan

Spatial-temporal dynamics of zooplankton in the Caravelas river estuary (Bahia, Brazil). The survey was conducted in order to describe the zooplankton community of the estuary Caravelas (Bahia, Brazil), to quantify and relate the patterns of horizontal and vertical transport with the type of tide (neap and spring) and tidal phase (flood and ebb). Zooplankton samples were collected with the aid of a suction pump (300L), filtered in plankton nets (300μm) and fixed in saline formalin 4%. Samples were collected at a fixed point (A1), near the mouth of the estuary, with samples taken at neap tides and spring tides during the dry and rainy seasons. Samples were collected for 13 hours, at intervals of 1 hour in 3 depths: surface, middle and bottom. Simultaneous collection of biological, we measured the current velocity, temperature and salinity of the water through CTD. In the laboratory, samples were selected for analysis in estereomicroscope, with 25 groups identified, with Copepoda getting the highest number of species. The 168 samples obtained from temporal samples were subsampled and processed on equipment ZooScan, with the aid of software ZooProcess at the end were generated 458.997 vingnettes. 8 taxa were identified automatically, with 16 classified as a semi-automatic. The group Copepoda, despite the limited taxonomic refinement ZooScan, obtained 2 genera and 1 species identified automatically. Among the seasons dry and wet groups Brachyura (zoea), Chaetognatha, and the Calanoid copepods (others), Temora spp., Oithona spp. and Euterpina acutifrons were those who had higher frequency of occurrence, appearing in more than 70% of the samples. Copepoda group showed the largest percentage of relative abundance in both seasons. There was no seasonal variation of total zooplankton, with an average density of 7826±4219 org.m-3 in the dry season, and 7959±3675 org.m-3 in the rainy season, neither between the types and phases of the tides, but seasonal differences were significant recorded for the main zooplankton groups. Vertical stratification was seen for the major zooplankton groups (Brachyura, Chaetognatha, Calanoida (other), Oithona spp, Temora spp. e Euterpina acutifrons). The scale of this stratification varied with the type (square or tide) and tidal phase (flood or ebb). The instantaneous transport was more influenced by current velocity, with higher values observed in spring tides to the total zooplankton, however, there was a variation of this pattern depending on the zooplankton group. According to the data import and export of total zooplankton, the outflow of organisms of the estuary was higher than the input. The results suggest that the estuary of Caravelas may influence the dynamics of organic matter to the adjacent coast, with possible consequences in National Marine Park of Abrolhos

Avaliação espaço-temporal do zooplâncton da laguna estuarina de Guaraíras (RN, Brasil)

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior

Estádios larvais e ocorrência saxonal de imaturos de Psaroniocompsa incrustata (Lutz,1910)(Diptera:Smimuliidae) no Rio Pium, município de Nísia Floesta, RN

The larval instars, seasonal occurrence and environmental factors influence on Psaroniocompsa incrustata (Lutz, 1910) (Diptera: Simuliidae) immature were studied according to its physical and chemical aspects of breeding water. Four collects were made at vegetal substrate from margin, middle and floating on the Pium river, city of Nísia Floresta, state of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil at dry and wet season. Some of larval characters were used to determinate the larval instars number like lateral length of cephalic capsulae, antennae and the distance among cephalic apodema, as well as pH, water temperature, width, depth, stream velocity, discharge and pluviometric precipitation were used for physical factors. Seven larval instars were determined for this P. incrustata community being the lateral length of cephalic capsulae as the best structure with this meaning propose. The seasonality immature abundance of this species were found in dry season and a positive correlation with pH, stream velocity and precipitation

Resposta imune à saliva de flebotomíneos (diptera: psychodidae) em indivíduos residentes em áreas urbana e periurbana no nordeste do brasil

Visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has a wide geographical distribution in tropical and subtropical areas of the planet, which is a protozoan parasite of the genus Leishmania. This pathogen is transmitted to the host through the sandflies bite, with its saliva, the immune response that leads to both. In the state of Rio Grande do Norte, 85% of the sand flies captured is Lutzomyia longipalpis, but the second most abundant, Lutzomyia evandroi, it deserves emphasis because its wide distribution and eclectic behavior. The exposure of people living in endemic areas for the insect vector VL greatly increases the chances of infection. This study aimed to evaluate aspects of the epidemiological profile of VL in endemic areas of human and nonendemic in the metropolitan area of Natal, as well as verify the abundance and seasonal fluctuations of sandflies species in two counties endemic for VL. Were collected in the municipalities of Nísia Floresta, Parnamirim, São Gonçalo do Amarante and Macaíba, of which groups of females were separated for further dissection of the salivary glands and identification of species. The blood samples used were from individuals of two Natal s districts where it has never been reported cases of VL and neighborhoods of Parnamirim applicants who present cases of VL. In the municipality of Nísia Floresta, the most abundant species was L. evandroi with 38.39%, followed by L. longipalpis with 36.22%, L. walkeri 19.67% L. lenti 3.81%, L. wellcomei 1.39% and L. whitmani 0.52%. Already in Parnamirim the proportions were L. walkeri with 73.15%, L. evandroi with 10.55%, L. wellcomei 7.63%, L. longipalpis 6.37%, L. whitmani 1.46%, L. sordellii 0.52%, L. intermedia 0.21 and L. shanonni 0.1%. In both municipalities was observed higher abundance of species distributed in the initial months of the year, as February and March. The study showed that no difference in exposure to the vector of VL among individuals from endemic and non endemic area for this disease. But there are differences in exposure between individuals of L. longipalpis and L. evandroi, confirming the great powers of the first vector. It was also characterized as predominant phenotype in the population of endemic areas who had negative serologic responses to antigens of Leishmania and result in negative Montenegro skin test (DTH), indicating that much of the population hasn t been bitten by infected insects

Contribuição da Geodésia ao monitoramento costeiro do Litoral Setentrional do Rio Grande do Norte, área de influência da indústria petrolífera

The general objective of this thesis has been seasonal monitoring (quarterly time scale) of coastal and estuarine areas of a section of the Northern Coast of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil, environmentally sensitive and with intense sediment erosion in the oil activities to underpin the implementation of projects for containment of erosion and mitigate the impacts of coastal dynamics. In order to achieve the general objective, the work was done systematically in three stages which consisted the specific objectives. The first stage was the implementation of geodetic reference infrastructure for carrying out the geodetic survey of the study area. This process included the implementation of RGLS (Northern Coast of the RN GPS Network), consisting of stations with geodetic coordinates and orthometric heights of precision; positioning of Benchmarks and evaluation of the gravimetric geoid available, for use in GPS altimetry of precision; and development of software for GPS altimetry of precision. The second stage was the development and improvement of methodologies for collection, processing, representation, integration and analysis of CoastLine (CL) and Digital Elevation Models (DEM) obtained by geodetic positioning techniques. As part of this stage have been made since, the choice of equipment and positioning methods to be used, depending on the required precision and structure implanted, and the definition of the LC indicator and of the geodesic references best suited, to coastal monitoring of precision. The third step was the seasonal geodesic monitoring of the study area. It was defined the execution times of the geodetic surveys by analyzing the pattern of sediment dynamics of the study area; the performing of surveys in order to calculate and locate areas and volumes of erosion and accretion (sandy and volumetric sedimentary balance) occurred on CL and on the beaches and islands surfaces throughout the year, and study of correlations between the measured variations (in area and volume) between each survey and the action of the coastal dynamic agents. The results allowed an integrated study of spatial and temporal interrelationships of the causes and consequences of intensive coastal processes operating in the area, especially to the measurement of variability of erosion, transport, balance and supply sedimentary over the annual cycle of construction and destruction of beaches. In the analysis of the results, it was possible to identify the causes and consequences of severe coastal erosion occurred on beaches exposed, to analyze the recovery of beaches and the accretion occurring in tidal inlets and estuaries. From the optics of seasonal variations in the CL, human interventions to erosion contention have been proposed with the aim of restoring the previous situation of the beaches in the process of erosion.

Estrutura da população de Coleodactylus natalensis Freire, 1999 (Squamata: Sphaerodactylidae) no Parque Estadual Dunas de Natal, Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Coleodactylus natalensis Freire, 1999, an endemic species of Atlantic Forest fragments around the Natal municipality, Rio Grande do Norte State, Brazil, has as type locality the Parque Estadual Dunas de Natal (05º48 S to 05º53 S and 35º09 W to 35º12 W), one of the largest restinga (herb and shrub association on sand dunes along the Brazilian coastline) associate fragment, surrounded by urban zone, placed on setentrional Atlantic Forest limits. We made estimates on populational density, spatial distribution, habitat and microhabitat preferences and feeding ecological aspects like sazonal and sexual variations on diet, prey electivities and niche breadth. We randomly sampled ninety-six 50m2 quadrants in each of the four habitats identified in the study area. Were collected 49 specimens and their stomach contents were analyzed; prey items found were correlated with leaf-litter invertebrates from habitat samples. We found a 98,5 ± 75,5 individuals/ha density, in grouped distribution pattern on densest habitats and random distribution on others habitats. This species lives mostly on leaf-litter in forest habitats, in higher humidity points, with lower temperatures, deeper leaf litter and lower sea level elevations than the randomly chosen points in the study area. Isopoda and Aranae were the most important prey categories in numeric, frequency and volumetric terms. Niche breadth has an intermediate value and was variable in sexual and in habitat terms. There was no correlation between morfometric measures and prey size on diet. The C. natalensis population studied seems to be diet opportunist, although selects larger prey items. The Parque Estadual das Dunas do Natal has several indications of anthropic pressure from the surrounding urban area that may affects the local C. natalensis population. Thus, the fragility of this species calls for urgent conservation efforts

Dinâmica espaço-temporal em uma guilda de borboletas frugívoras no limite norte da floresta atlântica nordestina

The extent of the Brazilian Atlantic rainforest, a global biodiversity hotspot, has been reduced to less than 7% of its original range. Yet, it contains one of the richest butterfly fauna in the world. Butterflies are commonly used as environmental indicators, mostly because of their strict association with host plants, microclimate and resource availability. This research describes diversity, composition and species richness of frugivorous butterflies in a forest fragment in the Brazilian Northeast. It compares communities in different physiognomies and seasons. The climate in the study area is classified as tropical rainy, with two well defined seasons. Butterfly captures were made with 60 Van Someren-Rydon traps, randomly located within six different habitat units (10 traps per unit) that varied from very open (e.g. coconut plantation) to forest interior. Sampling was made between January and December 2008, for five days each month. I captured 12090 individuals from 32 species. The most abundant species were Taygetis laches, Opsiphanes invirae and Hamadryas februa, which accounted for 70% of all captures. Similarity analysis identified two main groups, one of species associated with open or disturbed areas and a second by species associated with shaded areas. There was a strong seasonal component in species composition, with less species and lower abundance in the dry season and more species and higher abundance in the rainy season. K-means analysis indicates that choice of habitat units overestimated faunal perceptions, suggesting less distinct units. The species Taygetis virgilia, Hamadryas chloe, Callicore pygas e Morpho achilles were associated with less disturbed habitats, while Yphthimoides sp, Historis odius, H. acheronta, Hamadryas feronia e Siderone marthesia likey indicate open or disturbed habitats. This research brings important information for conservation of frugivorous butterflies, and will serve as baseline for future projects in environmental monitoring

Estratégia reprodutiva do peixe hermafrodita mussum, Synbranchus marmoratus Osteichthyes, Synbranchidae em um açude do Rio Grande do Norte, Brasil

Reproductive strategy of the hermaphrodite fish the marbled swamp eel, Synbranchus marmoratus (Bloch, 1795) (Osteichthyes: Synbranchidae) was investigated in the Marechal Dutra reservoir, Acari, Rio Grande do Norte, using fish samples captured monthly during the period of July 2010 to July 2011. The limnological parameters and rainfall were verified. The captured fish specimens were numbered, weighed, measured, dissected and their gonads and liver were removed, weighed and identified as to sex and developmental stages of gonads. The length-weight relationship was determined for grouped sex. The size of first gonadal maturation, gonadosomatic index (GSI), condition factor (K) and hepatosomatic index (HSI) were calculated. The development stages of the gonads were investigated using macroscopic and histological techniques, besides the fecundity and reproductive period. The macroscopic characteristics and the histological development of gonads confirmed the four different sexual types in the sampled population: primary males, females, intersex and secondary males. The secondary males were bigger and heavier than all the other types. This species showed a negative allometric growth with a higher increase in length than weight. The size at which 50% of the females began the process of gonadal maturation was 43.5 cm of total length, and for secondary males it was 58.5 cm. Condition factor showed two peaks in February and in April 2011. IGS indicated a reproductive period from July to September 2010 and was negatively correlated with the condition factor and rainfall. IGS showed a negative correlation when compared with the condition factor and the rainy season. HSI was highest in February ad lowest in December. The reproductive period of this species occurs between the end of the rainy season and the beginning of the dry season. S. marmoratus presents a seasonal reproductive strategy which optimizes its reproductive success under the semiarid climatic conditions

Determinantes socioeconômicos e ambientais do declínio das hospitalizações por diarréias em lactentes no Rio Grande do Norte - 1992 a 2001

There was a significant decline in hospitalizations for acute diarrhea in children younger than 1 year of age in Brazil between 1992 to 2001. The less economically developed state of Rio Grande do Norte is a case example of the national trend. In this work, we show a significant association between improvements in socioeconomic variables as well as increased access to sanitation and the decreased rate of hospitalization. Additionally, we observed a positive, seasonal correlation between rainfall and hospitalizations. Most notably, however, we show that improvements in income and inflation were positively correlated with a decline in hospitalizations. Improvements in public health infrastructure, socioeconomic variables like education and literacy, and increased investment in health services were important in reducing severe early childhood diarrheas. However, the data suggests that increased buying power and reductions in poverty played an equally crucial role in reducing hospitalizations for acute diarrhea in infants in Brazil. The work includes elements of the demography of the period for the age groups involved, children under one year, women in fertile age and fertility rate

Dípteros (Culicidae) transmissores de arbovírus em área de proteção ambiental urbana (Parque das Dunas Natal-RN,) 2004-2006

Desenvolvido no Parque das Dunas, segunda reserva ambiental urbana do Brasil, ocupando uma área de 1.172,80 hectares, com característica de mata atlântica de dunas, situada numa faixa litorânea na região urbana do município de Natal (05° 46 S, 35º 12 W), o presente estudo, realizado durante os anos de 2004 a 2006, teve como objetivo identificar as espécies de culicídeos existentes no Parque das Dunas, capazes de transmitir arbovírus, tendo em vista que em 2004 houve uma epizootia de saguis (Callitrix jacchus), que causou grande mortandade, sem definição do agente etiológico. No ano de 2004, foram pesquisados sete pontos no interior da mata, com instalação de 20 armadilhas de ovitrampas e 20 de bambu para coleta dos imaturos. Para os adultos, durante quatro vezes por semana, foram usadas as armadilhas de Sannhon. Foram coletados 5.691 imaturos, sendo 839 Ae. aegypti, 3.184 Ae. albopictus e 1.668 Hg. leucocelaenus. A coleta dos adultos foi realizada de 2004 a 2006, etapa em que se recolheu 17.506 culicídeos adultos, sendo 17.244 Wy. bourrouli, 255 Ae. aegypti, 593 Ae. albopictus, 1.275 Hg. leucocelaenus, 294 Oc. scapularis, 05 Oc. taeniorynchus, 02 Oc. serratus e 3 Li. durhami. Para os imaturos houve correlação significativa entre Ae. aegypti e umidade relativa do ar p = 0, 049 e pluviometria p = 0,00, Ae. albopictus apresentou correlação significativa positiva com a pluviometria, enquanto Hg. leucocelaenus não apresentou nenhuma das variáveis climáticas. Para os adultos, a análise de série temporal aponta flutuação sazonal significativa para Ae. aegypti (p = 0,003); Ae. albopictus (p = 0,04); Oc. scapularis (p = 0,008 ) e Hg. leucocelaenus (p = 0,003). Uma correlação significativa negativa foi observada entre o número de Ae. albopictus coletado e a temperatura (Corr= - 0,50, p = 0,01); isto é, para cada 1°C a mais há diminuição de 7 espécimes. Este estudo teve a participação de uma equipe multidisciplinar: biólogos, entomologistas, para confirmação das espécies; técnicos de laboratório, para acompanhamento diário das larvas eclodidas das armadilhas de ovitrampas. Teve a importante colaboração de profissionais da Fundação Oswaldo Cruz FIOCRUZ/Rio de Janeiro, da Universidade de São Paulo USP para identificação do grupo Wyeomyia.