Hostages to Moscow, clients of Beijing. Security in Central Asia as the role of the West diminishes. OSW Study 10/2014

The goal of this publication is to attempt to assess the thirteen years (2001- -2014) of the West’s military presence in the countries of post-Soviet Central Asia, closely associated with the ISAF and OEF-A (Operation Enduring Freedom – Afghanistan) missions in Afghanistan. There will also be an analysis of the actual challenges for the region’s stability after 2014. The current and future security architecture in Central Asia will also be looked at closely, as will the actual capabilities to counteract the most serious threats within its framework. The need to separately handle the security system in Central Asia and security as such is dictated by the particularities of political situation in the region, the key mechanism of which is geopolitics understood as global superpower rivalry for influence with a secondary or even instrumental role of the five regional states, while ignoring their internal problems. Such an approach is especially present in Russia’s perception of Central Asia, as it views security issues in geopolitical categories. Because of this, security analysis in the Central Asian region requires a broader geopolitical context, which was taken into account in this publication. The first part investigates the impact of the Western (primarily US) military and political presence on the region’s geopolitical architecture between 2001 and 2014. The second chapter is an attempt to take an objective look at the real challenges to regional security after the withdrawal of the coalition forces from Afghanistan, while the third chapter is dedicated to analysing the probable course of events in the security dimension following 2014. The accuracy of predictions time-wise included in the below publication does not exceed three to five years due to the dynamic developments in Central Asia and its immediate vicinity (the former Soviet Union, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran), and because of the large degree of unpredictability of policies of one of the key regional actors – Russia (both in the terms of its activity on the international arena, and its internal developments).

What do the Maidan protests tell us about Ukraine? Diagnosis and prospects for Ukrainian politics. OSW Commentary No. 125, 22.01.2014

The outbreak of the protests in the Maidan in Kyiv, and also periodically in other Ukrainian cities, has come as a surprise to both the government and the opposition. These rallies have now been ongoing for several weeks and their most striking feature is their focus on citizenship and their apolitical nature and, by extension, a clear attempt to dissociate the protests from Ukraine’s political opposition. Neither Batkivshchyna, UDAR nor Svoboda have managed to take over full control of the demonstrations. On the one hand, this has been linked to the fact that the protesters have little confidence in opposition politicians and, on the other hand, to disputes over a joint strategy and to rivalry between the three parties. As a result, the citizen-led movement has managed to retain its independence from any political actors. As a consequence of the radicalisation and escalation of the protests following 19 January, the political opposition has lost a significant proportion of the control it had been in possession of until then. Maidan should also be seen as the first clear manifestation of a new generation of Ukrainians – raised in an independent Ukraine, well-educated and familiar with new social media, but nonetheless seeking to ground themselves in national tradition. After the initial shock and a series of failed attempts to quell the protests, the government has seemingly opted to wait out the unrest. At the same time, however, it has been creating administrative obstacles for both the political and the civil opposition, restricting their access to the media and severely limiting the legal possibility to organise demonstrations.

Kosowo - przed ostatecznym rozwiazaniem. Proces uregulowania statusu miedzynarodowego = uwarunkowania polityczne i historyczne perspektywy rozwoju sytuacji. Prace OSW 2008. Kosovo before the final decision. Regulation Kosovo's international status - historical and political conditions and prospects for future developments. OSW Study 27/2008

The question of Kosovo's status is currently one of the most important issues in international politics. Since 1999, Kosovo has been an international protectorate which was created in the aftermath of the NATO intervention to stop the brutal pacification of the Albanian insurgency by Serb forces. The province has since de facto become independent of Serbia. Resolution 1244 of the UN Security Council, which established the protectorate, does not preclude any possible outcome as regards its status. Aware that after the crimes of 1999, any attempt to re-integrate Kosovo into Serbia would lead to a massive Albanian uprising, the West has decided that the best solution would be to award Kosovo internationally supervised independence, while at the same time granting very wide autonomy to the Kosovo Serbs. Serbia and Russia rejected the solution proposed by the West, and so Kosovo became an arena of international rivalry for influence in the Western Balkans as well as another element of rivalry, transcending the regional dimension, between Russia and the West. Russia has been using the Kosovo case to build a new model of its relations with the United States and the EU. Since there is a group of countries sceptical about, or even opposed to, Kosovo's independence within the EU, the Kosovo settlement will be a test of the EU's ability to speak with one voice with regard to its external policy.

Jihad vs The New Great Game: Paradoxes of militant Islamic threats in Central Asia. OSW Point of View (Policy Brief), January 2010

Threats linked to Islamic fundamentalism have been hanging over Central Asia for almost two decades. Many believe that militant Islam has played a significant part in each major political crisis in the region, and Central Asia is perceived as an almost perfect environment for its further development. Such a picture of this region is a result of serious abuses and manipulations. The real threat posed by militant Islam seems to be rather limited, and its roots lie outside Central Asia. This region is unlikely to become a key front of global jihad. Nevertheless, this does not guarantee peace and safety in Central Asia, as the Islamic threat remains an element of the geopolitical rivalry in the region – the ‘New Great Game’.

The future of the Franco-German tandem. OSW Commentary No. 83, 2012-07-11

Following the victories of François Hollande in the presidential election and the Socialist Party in the parliamentary election, the existing model of relations between Germany and France as symbolised by the Merkel-Sarkozy duo is undergoing a transformation. Along with the defeat for Sarkozy, who had fostered close cooperation with the German Chancellor, we are witnessing a change in the German-French modus operandi, which was based on making confidential agreements concerning the anti-crisis measures in the eurozone and then presenting ready-made solutions to other EU members (as in the case of the successive versions of the document currently known as the fiscal pact). However, a conflict in bilateral relations, which would mean a total breakdown of the Franco-German engine, is rather unlikely. In fact, François Hollande’s proposals have diminished the appearance of the two states’ exceptional compatibility, and have restored the specific relationship affected by the natural rivalry between two states, who because of their economies’ different orientation have divergent interests. Nevertheless, both sides are destined to reach a compromise, as neither can attain its goals in the face of the other’s opposition. In the long term, Hollande is likely to maintain a common front with Germany in fighting the crisis, while at the same time trying (with his allies from the south of the EU) to limit Berlin’s political and economic superiority.

EU-US S&T Collaborations, Challenges and Opportunities for Development. Innovation Diplomacy, Special case in point: the Hellenic-American innovation bridge and its underlying dimensions. ACES Working Papers, October 2012

Developed and developing economies alike face increased resource scarcity and competitive rivalry. Science and technology increasingly appear as a main source of competitive and sustainable advantage for nations are regions alike. However, the key determinant of their efficacy is the quality and quantity of entrepreneurship-enabled innovation that unlocks and captures the pecuniary benefits of science enterprise in the form of private, public or hybrid goods (for instance, bio-entrepreneur-millionaires, knowledge for the public good - ie: public health awareness, and new public-private research centers funded partly by bio-entrepreneur-millionaires and monies levied as taxes on bio-ventures).

Is Regulatory Convergence Efficient? CES Germany & Europe Working Papers, No. 02.3, May 1992

One of the important themes in the new institutionalism is the convergence of market regulations in a world with three powerful clusters of countries (Western Europe, North America, and East Asia) on a small number of regimes, like disorganized capitalism, free market capitalism, and coordinated market capitalism. This paper examines the political-economic theory of regulatory convergence. It reconstructs and compares three welfarist approaches: the optimal regulatory regime (Tinbergen), the rule of constitutional law (Buchanan), and regulatory rivalry (Hayek). The paper concludes that most plausible results of convergence theory are completely opposite to the expressed political intentions of the theorists. Tinbergen's theory predicts neoliberalism, not social democracy. The theories of Buchanan and Hayek predict respectively a consensual or spontaneous formation of corporatist regulations, not the return of classical constitutionalism or liberalism. The paper summons new institutionalists to repair the weak scientific elements of convergence theory and to make a distinction between the ideological origins of this theory and its unintended ideological consequences.

Iranian-Saudi tensions: the energy dimension. EPC Policy Brief, 9 February 2016

Following the execution of Saudi Shiite cleric Nimr Baqer al-Nimr, the deep rooted rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia entered a new phase in January 2016. While the main objective for both countries still is regional hegemony, the Iranian-Saudi competition takes many different forms and shapes, and also extends into the field of energy. In this Policy Brief, David Ramin Jalilvand gives a detailed analysis of the energy-related aspects of the Iran-Saudi Arabia rivalry and its possible consequences for Europe’s energy market; both countries hold giant hydrocarbon reserves, so European energy will probably be affected by their competition in several regards; increased oil supplies will be available for the European market, while the cycle of low oil prices will be prolonged. According to Jalilvand, this is a mixed blessing; Europe’s energy import bill will be reduced, but its indigenous production will suffer, while Russia’s role in European natural gas will only continue to grow.

Corsicana!

Mode of access: Internet.

The development of modern Europe : an introduction to the study of current history /

"References" at end of chapters.

Push Ball

On verso of duplicate photo: "An outlet for class rivalry --The Frosh-Soph push ball contest," Ferry Field, 1907. Duplicate from Sam Sturgis Collection

Democratic ideals and reality; a study in the politics of reconstruction,

Perspective.--Social momentum.---The seaman's point of view.--The rivalry of empires.--The freedom of nations.--The freedom of men.--Postscript.--Appendices.

A common oscillator for perceptual rivalries?

Perceptual rivalry is an oscillation of conscious experience that takes place despite univarying, if ambiguous, sensory input. Much current interest is focused on the controversy over the neural site of binocular rivalry, a variety of perceptual rivalry for which a number of different cortical regions have been implicated. Debate continues over the relative role of higher levels of processing compared with primary visual cortex and the suggestion that different forms of rivalry involve different cortical areas. Here we show that the temporal pattern of disappearance and reappearance in motion-induced blindness (MIB) (Bonneh et al, 2001 Nature 411 798-801) is highly correlated with the pattern of oscillation reported during binocular rivalry in the same individual. This correlation holds over a wide range of inter-individual variation. Temporal similarity in the two phenomena was strikingly confirmed by the effects of the hallucinogen LSD, which produced the same, extraordinary, pattern of increased rhythmicity in both kinds of perceptual oscillation. Furthermore, MIB demonstrates the two properties previously considered characteristic of binocular rivalry. Namely the distribution of dominance periods can be approximated by a gamma distribution and, in line with Levelt's second proposition of binocular rivalry, predominance of one perceptual phase can be increased through a reduction in the predominance time of the opposing phase. We conclude that (i) MIB is a form of perceptual rivalry, and (ii) there may be a common oscillator responsible for timing aspects of all forms of perceptual rivalry.

Does interhemispheric competition mediate motion-induced blindness? A transcranial magnetic stimulation study

Motion-induced blindness (MIB) is a phenomenon, perhaps related to perceptual rivalry, where stationary targets disappear and reappear in a cyclic mode when viewed against a background (mask) of coherent, apparent 3-D motion. Since MIB has recently been shown to share similar temporal properties with binocular rivalry, we probed the appearance-disappearance cycle of MIB using unilateral, single-pulse transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS)-a manipulation that has previously been shown to influence binocular rivalry. Effects were seen for both hemispheres when the timing of TMS was determined prospectively on the basis of a given subject's appearance-disappearance cycle, so that it occurred on average around 300 ms before the time of perceptual switch. Magnetic stimulation of either hemisphere shortened the time to switch from appearance to disappearance and vice versa. However, TMS of left posterior parietal cortex more selectively shortened the disappearance time of the targets if delivered in phase with the disappearance cycle, but lengthened it if TMS was delivered in the appearance phase after the perceptual switch. Opposite effects were seen in the right hemisphere, although less marked than the left-hemisphere effects. As well as sharing temporal characteristics with binocular rivalry, MIB therefore seems to share a similar underlying mechanism of interhemispheric modulation. Interhemispheric switching may thus provide a common temporal framework for uniting the diverse, multilevel phenomena of perceptual rivalry.

Conflitos e Esperanças: um estudo em Gênesis 25-36 e na literatura profética da Bíblia Hebraica sobre a relação entre os descendentes de Esaú e Jacó

Na história da humanidade, a realidade de conflitos e de guerras entre povos vizinhos têm sido comum. O que mais assusta é o fato que, o discurso religioso, ao invés de desencorajar tais realidades pode incentivar e justificar os projetos de poder dessas nações. O estudo da Bíblia Hebraica pode lançar luzes para o entendimento das realidades de conflito entre nações e para o papel do discurso religioso nestes. Para isto, essa pesquisa propôs-se a estudar narrativas que abordam a origem e o desenvolvimento de rivalidades e de conflitos internacionais. Especialmente, estudou as narrativas familiares e os oráculos proféticos que abordaram a rivalidade, os conflitos e o ódio entre Israel/Judá e Edom para propor uma releitura capaz de encorajar projetos de paz. Os exercícios exegéticos nas narrativas familiares (Gn 35-36) e nos oráculos proféticos contra Edom (nas coleções de oráculos contra as nações, no livro de Obadias, e em perícopes de Is 63,1-6 e de Ml 1,2-5) abordaram o material literário da Bíblia Hebraica para investigar sobre a origem e o desenvolvimento dos conflitos entre Israel/Judá e Edom. Especial atenção foi dada ao estudo da construção histórica do ódio e o papel da literatura religiosa no crescente desenvolvimento das rivalidades, animosidades e conflitos. O primeiro capítulo estudou a saga de Isaque como documento histórico e teológico que abordou a origem familiar da rivalidade entre os irmãos gêmeos, com diferenças significativas na construção de suas vidas e identidades. O segundo capítulo estudou, na literatura profética, os Oráculos contra as Nações e, mais especificamente, os oráculos contra Edom. Nesta fase estudou a importância desse gênero literário na construção de uma teologia mais universal que atribuía a Deus o controle da história, visando maior cuidado com Israel. O terceiro capítulo também avaliou outro material profético que abordou o conflito e, até mesmo, o ódio divino contra os edomitas (Is 63,1-6 e Ml 1,2-5). Nestes, percebeu-se o acirramento dos conflitos e a construção de um discurso religioso mais animoso contra Edom. Os estudos nas narrativas de rivalidade e de conflitos entre Israel/Judá e Edom na Bíblia Hebraica procuraram destacar, na dinâmica história de conflitos, as esperanças de paz para as relações internacionais. Sobretudo, propôs reler esses textos para a construção de um discurso religioso-teológico que estimule a tolerância e a ética da paz.