Can You Home Again? Desertion and Control of Hometowns in Civil Wars

What allows an armed group in a civil war to prevent desertion? This paper addresses this question with a focus on control in the rearguard. Most past studies focus on motivations for desertion. They explain desertion in terms of where soldiers stand in relation to the macro themes of the war, or in terms of an inability to provide positive incentives to overcome the collective action problem. However, since individuals decide whether and how to participate in civil wars for multiple reasons, responding to a variety of local conditions in an environment of threat and violence, a focus only on macro-level motivations is incomplete. The opportunities side of the ledger deserves more attention. I therefore turn my attention to how control by an armed group eliminates soldiers’ opportunities to desert. In particular, I consider the control that an armed group maintains over soldiers’ hometowns, treating geographic terrain as an important exogenous indicator of the ease of control. Rough terrain at home affords soldiers and their families and friends advantages in ease of hiding, the difficulty of using force, and local knowledge. Based on an original dataset of soldiers from Santander Province in the Spanish Civil War, gathered from archival sources, I find statistical evidence that the rougher the terrain in a soldier’s home municipality, the more likely he is to desert. I find complementary qualitative evidence indicating that soldiers from rough-terrain communities took active advantage of their greater opportunities for evasion. This finding has important implications for the way observers interpret different soldiers’ decisions to desert or remain fighting, for the prospect that structural factors may shape the cohesion of armed groups, and for the possibility that local knowledge may be a double-edged sword, making soldiers simultaneously good at fighting and good at deserting.

Strategic Framework and Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Hepatitis C in NI (PDF 182 KB)

2004 - 2007

Schistosomiasis epidemiology and control: how did we get here and where should we go?

Although a disease of great antiquity, scientific studies of schistosomiasis began only 150 years ago. The complete life-cycle was not described until just before the First World War, making it possible at last to plan proper community control programmes. Inadequate tools prevented their effective implementation until well after the Second World War when new tools became available, thanks to the newly formed World Health Organization. Molluscicides spearheaded control programmes until the late 1970s but were then replaced by the newly developed, safe drugs still used today. Whatever the method used, the initial goal of eradication was, in the light of experience and cost, gradually replaced by less ambitious targets; first to stop transmission and then to reduce morbidity. The most successful programmes combined several methods to minimise reinfection after chemotherapy. Comparisons between different programmes are difficult without using appropriate, standardised diagnostic techniques and the correct epidemiological measurements. Some examples will be presented, mainly from our studies on Schistosoma mansoni in Kenya. Drug resistance on a scale comparable with malaria has not occurred in schistosomiasis but the likely withdrawal of all drugs except praziquantel leaves its control extremely vulnerable to this potential problem. An effective, affordable vaccine for use in endemic countries is unlikely to be ready for at least 5 years, and developing strategies for its use could take a further decade or more, judging from experience with drugs and molluscicides. In the interim, by analogy with malaria, the most cost-effective approach would the use of drugs combined with other methods to stop transmission, including molluscicides. The cost of molluscicides needs to be reduced and fears allayed about their supposedly adverse ecological effects.

The identification and characterization of new immunogenic egg components: implications for evaluation and control of the immunopathogenic T cell response in schistosomiasis

In schistosomiasis, granuloma formation to parasite eggs signals the beginning of a chronic and potentially life-threatening disease. Granulomas are strictly mediated by CD4+ T helper (Th) cells specific for egg antigens; however, the number and identity of these T cell-sensitizing molecules are largely unknown. We have used monoclonal T cell reagents derived from egg-sensitized individuals as probes to track down, isolate and positively identify several egg antigens; this approach implicitly assures that the molecules of interest are T cell immunogens and, hence, potentially pathogenic. The best studied and most abundant egg component is the Sm-p40 antigen. Sm-p40 and its peptide 234-246 elicit a strikingly immunodominant Th-1-polarized response in C3H and CBA mice, which are H-2k strains characterized by severe egg-induced immunopathology. Two additional recently described T cell-sensitizing egg antigens are Schistosoma mansoni phosphoenolpyruvate carboxykinase (Sm-PEPCK) and thioredoxin peroxidase-1 (Sm-TPx-1). In contrast to Sm-p40, both of these molecules induce a more balanced Th-1/Th-2 response, and are relatively stronger antigens in C57BL/6 mice, which develop smaller egg granulomas. Importantly, Sm-p40 and Sm-PEPCK have demonstrated immunogenicity in humans. The findings in the murine model introduce the important notion that egg antigens can vary significantly in immunogenicity according to the host's genetic background. A better knowledge of the principal immunogenic egg components is necessary to determine whether the immune responses to certain antigens can serve as indicators or predictors of the form and severity of clinical disease, and to ascertain whether such responses can be manipulated for the purpose of reducing pathology.

Error estimate and control in the MSFV method for multiphase flow in porous media

n this paper the iterative MSFV method is extended to include the sequential implicit simulation of time dependent problems involving the solution of a system of pressure-saturation equations. To control numerical errors in simulation results, an error estimate, based on the residual of the MSFV approximate pressure field, is introduced. In the initial time steps in simulation iterations are employed until a specified accuracy in pressure is achieved. This initial solution is then used to improve the localization assumption at later time steps. Additional iterations in pressure solution are employed only when the pressure residual becomes larger than a specified threshold value. Efficiency of the strategy and the error control criteria are numerically investigated. This paper also shows that it is possible to derive an a-priori estimate and control based on the allowed pressure-equation residual to guarantee the desired accuracy in saturation calculation.

Land use regulation and productivity - Land matters: Evidence from a UK Supermarket chain

We use store-specific data for a major UK supermarket chain to estimate the impact of planning on store output. Using the quasi-natural experiment of the variation in policies between England and other UK countries, we isolate the impact of Town Centre First policies. We find that space contributes directly to store productivity; and planning policies in England directly reduce output both by reducing store sizes and forcing stores onto less productive sites. We estimate that since the late 1980s planning policies have imposed a loss of output of at least 18.3 to 24.9% - more than a “lost decade’s” growth. JEL codes: D2, L51, L81, R32.

Prevention and Control Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) National Clinical Guideline No. 2

Prevention and Control Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) National Clinical Guideline No. 2   Click here to download National Clinical Guideline – MRSA  PDF 1MB Click here to download National Clinical Guideline – MRSA (Summary) PDF 389KB Click here to download the Presentation at the Launch of the 2nd National Clinical Guideline Prevention and Control of Methicillin-Resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA)PDF 1.04MB  

The Impact of CAROtid plaque Screening on Smoking (CAROSS) cessation and control of other cardiovascular risk factors: rationale and design of a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Screening tests for subclinical cardiovascular disease, such as markers of atherosclerosis, are increasingly used in clinical prevention to identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Being aware of these test results might also enhance patient motivation to change unhealthy behaviors but the effectiveness of such a screening strategy has been poorly studied. METHODS: The CAROtid plaque Screening trial on Smoking cessation (CAROSS) is a randomized controlled trial in 530 regular smokers aged 40-70 years to test the hypothesis that carotid plaque screening will influence smokers' behavior with an increased rate of smoking cessation (primary outcome) and an improved control of other cardiovascular risk factors (secondary outcomes) after 1-year follow-up. All smokers will receive a brief advice for smoking cessation,and will subsequently be randomly assigned to either the intervention group (with plaques screening) or the control group (without plaque screening). Carotid ultrasound will be conducted with a standard protocol. Smokers with at least one carotid plaque will receive pictures of their own plaques with a structured explanation on the general significance of plaques. To ensure equal contact conditions, smokers not undergoing ultrasound and those without plaque will receive a relevant explanation on the risks associated with tobacco smoking. Study outcomes will be compared between smokers randomized to plaque screening and smokers not submitted to plaque screening. SUMMARY: This will be the first trial to assess the impact of carotid plaque screening on 1-year smoking cessation rates and levels of control of other cardiovascular risk factors.

Epidemiological and control aspects of schistosomiasis in Brazilian endemic areas

The present work analyzes the epidemiology of schistosomiasis in Brazil, its expansion, the attempts to control the disease, and the overall difficulties. The authors present the distribution of schistosomiasis intermediary hosts in Brazil, the migration routes of the human population, and disease distribution in highly and lowly endemic areas and isolated foci. They also analyze the controlling programs developed from 1977 to 2002, indicating the prevalence evolution and the reduction of disease morbi-mortality. In addition, the authors also evaluate controlling methods and conclude that: (a) no isolated method is able to control schistosomiasis, and every controlling program should consider the need of a multidisciplinary application of existing methods; (b) in long term, basic sanitation, potable water supply, as well as sanitary education, and community effective participation are important for infection control; (c) in short term, specific treatment at endemic areas, associated with control of intermediary hosts at epidemiologically important foci, are extremely relevant for controlling disease morbidity, although not enough for interrupting infection transmission.

Body temperature regulation and outcome after cardiac arrest and therapeutic hypothermia.

OBJECTIVE: Therapeutic temperature modulation is recommended after cardiac arrest (CA). However, body temperature (BT) regulation has not been extensively studied in this setting. We investigated BT variation in CA patients treated with therapeutic hypothermia (TH) and analyzed its impact on outcome. METHODS: A prospective cohort of comatose CA patients treated with TH (32-34°C, 24h) at the medical/surgical intensive care unit of the Lausanne University Hospital was studied. Spontaneous BT was recorded on hospital admission. The following variables were measured during and after TH: time to target temperature (TTT=time from hospital admission to induced BT target <34°C), cooling rate (spontaneous BT-induced BT target/TTT) and time of passive rewarming to normothermia. Associations of spontaneous and induced BT with in-hospital mortality were examined. RESULTS: A total of 177 patients (median age 61 years; median time to ROSC 25 min) were studied. Non-survivors (N=90, 51%) had lower spontaneous admission BT than survivors (median 34.5 [interquartile range 33.7-35.9]°C vs. 35.1 [34.4-35.8]°C, p=0.04). Accordingly, time to target temperature was shorter among non-survivors (200 [25-363]min vs. 270 [158-375]min, p=0.03); however, when adjusting for admission BT, cooling rates were comparable between the two outcome groups (0.4 [0.2-0.5]°C/h vs. 0.3 [0.2-0.4]°C/h, p=0.65). Longer duration of passive rewarming (600 [464-744]min vs. 479 [360-600]min, p<0.001) was associated with mortality. CONCLUSIONS: Lower spontaneous admission BT and longer time of passive rewarming were associated with in-hospital mortality after CA and TH. Impaired thermoregulation may be an important physiologic determinant of post-resuscitation disease and CA prognosis. When assessing the benefit of early cooling on outcome, future trials should adjust for patient admission temperature and use the cooling rate rather than the time to target temperature.

A new pathway for the regulation and governance of health research

The Academy's review, 'A new pathway for the regulation and governance of health research' was published in January 2011. The report was prepared by a working group, chaired by Professor Sir Michael Rawlins FMedSci, convened in response to an invitation from Government to review the regulation and governance of UK health research involving human participants, their tissue or their data.The report proposes four key principles that should underpin the regulation and governance framework around health research in the UK, and makes recommendations to:Create a new Health Research Agency (HRA) to rationalise the regulation and governance of all health research. Include within the HRA a new National Research Governance Service to facilitate timely approval of research studies by NHS Trusts. Improve the UK environment for clinical trials.Provide access to patient data that protects individual interests and allows approved research to proceed effectively. Embed a culture that values research within the NHS.

Infection prevention and control. Best practice advice for nurseries and childcare settings

This booklet provides nurseries and childcare settings with comprehensive infection prevention and control advice.It includes simple, practical and easily understood guidance on the day-to-day implementation of good infection prevention and control practices, as well as specific actions to take in the event of outbreaks of infection.Areas covered include suitable childcare premises, hand hygiene, immunisation, decontamination, toys, personal items, toilets, nappy changing, laundry, food hygiene and pets.The booklet includes illustrations, diagrams, a glossary and key points to remember in each section to ensure the advice is easy for all staff to understand and pass on to others.It also provides contact details for each of the Health and Social Care early years teams in Northern Ireland.

Low transmission areas of schistosomiasis in Venezuela: consequences on the diagnosis, treatment, and control

Schistosomiasis low transmission areas as Venezuela, can be defined as those where the vector exists, the prevalence of active cases is under 25%, individuals with mild intensity of infection predominate and are mostly asymptomatic. These areas are the consequence of effective control programs, however, "silent" epidemiological places are difficult to trace, avoiding the opportune diagnosis and treatment of infected persons. Clinic and abdominal ultrasound have not shown to discriminate infected from uninfected persons in areas where besides Schistosoma mansoni, intestinal parasites are the rule. Under these conditions, serology remains as a very valuable diagnostic tool, since it gives a closer approximation to the true prevalence. In this sense, circumoval precipitin test, ELISA-SEA with sodium metaperiodate, and alkaline phosphatase immunoassay joined to coprology allow the identification of the "schistosomiasis cases". In relation to public health, schistosomiasis has been underestimated by the sanitary authorities and the investment on its control is being transferred to other diseases of major social and political relevance neglecting sanitary efforts and allowing growth of snail population. Some strategies of diagnosis and control should be done before schistosomiasis reemergence occurs in low transmission areas.