Expectations, Learning and Monetary Policy: An Overview of Recent Research

Expectations about the future are central for determination of current macroeconomic outcomes and the formulation of monetary policy. Recent literature has explored ways for supplementing the benchmark of rational expectations with explicit models of expectations formation that rely on econometric learning. Some apparently natural policy rules turn out to imply expectational instability of private agents’ learning. We use the standard New Keynesian model to illustrate this problem and survey the key results about interest-rate rules that deliver both uniqueness and stability of equilibrium under econometric learning. We then consider some practical concerns such as measurement errors in private expectations, observability of variables and learning of structural parameters required for policy. We also discuss some recent applications including policy design under perpetual learning, estimated models with learning, recurrent hyperinflations, and macroeconomic policy to combat liquidity traps and deflation.

Actualités diagnostiques et thérapeutiques dans le domaine de l'encéphalopathie hépatique [Hepatic encephalopathy: recent developments].

Hepatic encephalopathy is a neurological syndrome occurring in patients with liver failure or in those with a large porto-systemic shunt. In cirrhotic patients, the current classification comprises covert and overt encephalopathy. Diagnosis of covert encephalopathy requires sensitive tests. Lactulose and rifaximin are the two leading therapeutic options. Rifaximin is efficacious for maintaining remission from hepatic encephalopathy. Liver transplantation should be discussed in cirrhotic patients with encephalopathy.

Recent developments in the use of chemotherapy in brain tumours.

Several recent studies have further clarified the role of chemotherapy in newly diagnosed anaplastic glioma. For newly diagnosed glioblastoma, combined daily radiotherapy with daily temozolomide followed by six cycles of adjuvant temozolomide improves overall survival. This benefit is especially observed in patients with a methylated promotor of the MGMT gene which encodes an alkyltransferase; this observation however, needs confirmation. Although oligodendroglial tumours are sensitive to chemotherapy, classical adjuvant nitrosourea-based chemotherapy does not improve overall survival in newly diagnosed anaplastic oligodendroglioma, even in the subset of 1p/19q loss tumours. It may increase progression-free survival however, and further studies must show if combined modality treatment with daily chemotherapy during radiotherapy increases survival. Trials exploring the role of chemotherapy in low-grade glioma are ongoing. No standard chemotherapy is currently available for highly anaplastic glioma failing first-line temozolomide-based therapy.

Recent plant diversity changes on Europe's mountain summits.

In mountainous regions, climate warming is expected to shift species' ranges to higher altitudes. Evidence for such shifts is still mostly from revisitations of historical sites. We present recent (2001 to 2008) changes in vascular plant species richness observed in a standardized monitoring network across Europe's major mountain ranges. Species have moved upslope on average. However, these shifts had opposite effects on the summit floras' species richness in boreal-temperate mountain regions (+3.9 species on average) and Mediterranean mountain regions (-1.4 species), probably because recent climatic trends have decreased the availability of water in the European south. Because Mediterranean mountains are particularly rich in endemic species, a continuation of these trends might shrink the European mountain flora, despite an average increase in summit species richness across the region.

On the real effects of financial pressure: Evidence from euro area firm-level employment during the recent financial crisis.

Using a large panel of unquoted euro-area firms over the period 2003-11, this paper examines the impact of financial pressure on firms’ employment. The analysis finds evidence that financial pressure negatively affects firms’ employment decisions. This effect is stronger during the 2007-2009 financial crisis, especially for firms in the periphery area compared to their counterparts in the core European economies. We also find that impact of financial pressure on employment is more potent for firms classified as financially constrained and operating in periphery economies during the financial crisis.

The role of education in equity portfolios during the recent financial crisis

Using a panel of 38 economies, over the period 2001 to 2010, we analyse the link between diversification in equity portfolios and different facets of education. We find that traditionally used measures of education play an important role in reducing equity home bias. After separating countries according to their level of financial development, we find that less developed economies tend to benefit more from an improvement in the level of education compared to their more developed counterparts. We also find that the beneficial effect of education is more pronounced during the most recent financial crisis, especially for economies with less developed financial markets.

The Electoral Determinants of Collective Remittances: The Mexican 3x1 Program for Migrants

The 3x1 Program for Migrants is a matching grant scheme that seeks to direct the money sent by migrant organizations abroad to the provision of public and social infrastructure, and to productive projects in migrants’ communities of origin. To do so, the municipal, state, and federal administrations match the amount sent by hometown associations by 3 to 1. This opens the door to the political manipulation of the program. We explore the impact of a particular facet of Mexican political life on the operation of the 3x1: its recent democratization and the increasing political competition at the municipal level. Relying on the literature on redistributive politics, we posit that an increasing number of effective parties in elections may have two different effects. On the one hand, the need to cater to more heterogeneous constituencies may increase the provision of public projects. On the other hand, since smaller coalitions are needed to win elections under tighter competition, fewer public and more private (clientelistic) projects could be awarded. Using a unique dataset on the 3x1 Program for Migrants for over 2,400 municipalities in the period 2002 through 2007, we find a lower provision of public goods in electorally competitive jurisdictions. Thus, we remain sceptical about the program success in promoting public goods in politically competitive locations with high migration levels.

Recent advances in pharmacologic study of natural anticancer agents in China

In this paper a number of anticancer agents of natural origin will be presented. Hydroxycamtothecin (HCPT) was found to produce a strong inhibitory action on a variety of animal tumors. It is also effective for treatment of patients with gastric carcinoma, liver carcinoma, tumor of head and neck or leukemia. Pharmacologic studies showed that it could depress S phase of tumor cells significantly and cause formation of cellular chromatid breaks. By means of alkaline elution and nick translation methods it has been proved that HCPT induced DNA singlo strand breaks remarkably. Homoharringyonine (hhrt) was shown to be effective against acute leukemia. Recent experiments in tumor-bearing mice inidcated that (HHRT) could diminish tumor metastasis. Using molecular hybridization technique it was demonstrated that (HHRT) decreased the content of c-myc RNA in the cytoplasm but not in the nuclei. Lycobetaine (LBT) poddrddrf dytnh inhibitory effects on a number of ascites tumors. In clinical trials it was against ovarian and gastric carcinomas. It is able to intercalate into DNA. Oxalysine (OXL) is a new antibiotic and shown to be effective against tumor metastatis. When used in combination with 5-FU, its anticancer action could be enhanced. Other natural compounds such as indirubin, ß-elemene, irisquinone, oridonine, norcantharidin and PSP have been also found to possess antitumor action.

Recent advances in immunity to human schistosomiasis

For many years the epidemiological significance of immunity in human schistosomiasis has been the subject of inconclusive debate. Recently, the results of studies from Brazil and Kenya, on Shistosoma mansoni and from Zimbabwe and The Gambia on S. haematobium have confirmed the importance of protective immunity. In communities in endemic areas the development of immunity to infection only occurs after many years of exposure. In part this due to the slow development of antibodies wich are protective but also to the earlier development of antibody isotypes which lack protective capacity and wich are capable of interfering with the functioning of protective antibodies. Protective antibodies appear to be of the IgE class but some IgG subclasses may be also be important. Initially, blocking antibodies were thought to be predominantly IgM and IgG2 but IgG4 also seems to posses blocking activity. The early production of blocking antibodies and late production of protective antibodies may be indicative of cytokine induced immunoglobulin class swiching caused by the sequential involvment of different lymphokines.

Recent advances and prospective researches on molecular epidemiology of dengue viruses

The determination of amino acid changes in the envelop protein by direct sequencing of either genomic RNA or PCR-amplified cDNA fragments provides useful informations for assessing the genetic variability and the geographic distribution of the actually most widespread dengue-2 serotype. The possible link of variations in the envelope protein-gene and virus virulence is discussed.