Modelling dependence in a ratemaking procedure with multivariate Poisson regression models

When actuaries face with the problem of pricing an insurance contract that contains different types of coverage, such as a motor insurance or homeowner's insurance policy, they usually assume that types of claim are independent. However, this assumption may not be realistic: several studies have shown that there is a positive correlation between types of claim. Here we introduce different regression models in order to relax the independence assumption, including zero-inflated models to account for excess of zeros and overdispersion. These models have been largely ignored to multivariate Poisson date, mainly because of their computational di±culties. Bayesian inference based on MCMC helps to solve this problem (and also lets us derive, for several quantities of interest, posterior summaries to account for uncertainty). Finally, these models are applied to an automobile insurance claims database with three different types of claims. We analyse the consequences for pure and loaded premiums when the independence assumption is relaxed by using different multivariate Poisson regression models and their zero-inflated versions.

Dukes B colorectal cancer: distinct genetic categories and clinical outcome based on proximal or distal tumor location.

PURPOSE: The aim of this study was to determine whether tumor location proximal or distal to the splenic flexure is associated with distinct molecular patterns and can predict clinical outcome in a homogeneous group of patients with Dukes B (T3-T4, N0, M0) colorectal cancer. It has been hypothesized that proximal and distal colorectal cancer may arise through different pathogenetic mechanisms. Although p53 and Ki-ras gene mutations occur frequently in distal tumors, another form of genomic instability associated with defective DNA mismatch repair has been predominantly identified in the proximal colon. To date, however, the clinical usefulness of these molecular characteristics remains unproven. METHODS: A total of 126 patients with a lymph node-negative sporadic colon or rectum adenocarcinoma were prospectively assessed with the endpoint of death by cancer. No patient received either radiotherapy or chemotherapy. p53 protein was studied by immunohistochemistry using DO-7 monoclonal antibody, and p53 and Ki-ras gene mutations were detected by single strand conformation polymorphism assay. RESULTS: During a mean follow-up of 67 months, the overall five-year survival was 70 percent. Nuclear p53 staining was found in 57 tumors (47 percent), and was more frequent in distal than in proximal tumors (55 vs. 21 percent; chi-squared test, P < 0.001). For the whole group, p53 protein expression correlated with poor survival in univariate and multivariate analysis (log-rank test, P = 0.01; hazard ratio = 2.16; 95 percent confidence interval = 1.12-4.11, P = 0.02). Distal colon tumors and rectal tumors exhibited similar molecular patterns and showed no difference in clinical outcome. In comparison with distal colorectal cancer, proximal tumors were found to be statistically significantly different on the following factors: mucinous content (P = 0.008), degree of histologic differentiation (P = 0.012), p53 protein expression, and gene mutation (P = 0.001 and 0.01 respectively). Finally, patients with proximal tumors had a marginally better survival than those with distal colon or rectal cancers (log-rank test, P = 0.045). CONCLUSION: In this series of Dukes B colorectal cancers, p53 protein expression was an independent factor for survival, which also correlated with tumor location. Eighty-six percent of p53-positive tumors were located in the distal colon and rectum. Distal colon and rectum tumors had similar molecular and clinical characteristics. In contrast, proximal neoplasms seem to represent a distinct entity, with specific histopathologic characteristics, molecular patterns, and clinical outcome. Location of the neoplasm in reference to the splenic flexure should be considered before group stratification in future trials of adjuvant chemotherapy in patients with Dukes B tumors.

The Rank Lecture: Has imaging told us anything new about human visual organisation?

The functional architecture of the occipital cortex is being studied with increasing detail. Functional and structural MR based imaging are altering views about the organisation of the human visual system. Recent advances have ranged from comparative studies with non-human primates to predictive scanning. The latter multivariate technique describes with sub-voxel resolution patterns of activity that are characteristic of specific visual experiences. One can deduce what a subject experienced visually from the pattern of cortical activity recorded. The challenge for the future is to understand visual functions in terms of cerebral computations at a mesoscopic level of description and to relate this information to electrophysiology. The principal medical application of this new knowledge has focused to a large extent on plasticity and the capacity for functional reorganisation. Crossmodality visual-sensory interactions and cross-correlations between visual and other cerebral areas in the resting state are areas of considerable current interest. The lecture will review findings over the last two decades and reflect on possible roles for imaging studies in the future.

Orthogonal organic and aqueous-based washes of tissue sections to enhance protein sensitivity by MALDI imaging mass spectrometry.

Imaging mass spectrometry (IMS) is an emergent and innovative approach for measuring the composition, abundance and regioselectivity of molecules within an investigated area of fixed dimension. Although providing unprecedented molecular information compared with conventional MS techniques, enhancement of protein signature by IMS is still necessary and challenging. This paper demonstrates the combination of conventional organic washes with an optimized aqueous-based buffer for tissue section preparation before matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization (MALDI) IMS of proteins. Based on a 500 mM ammonium formate in water-acetonitrile (9:1; v/v, 0.1% trifluororacetic acid, 0.1% Triton) solution, this buffer wash has shown to significantly enhance protein signature by profiling and IMS (~fourfold) when used after organic washes (70% EtOH followed by 90% EtOH), improving the quality and number of ion images obtained from mouse kidney and a 14-day mouse fetus whole-body tissue sections, while maintaining a similar reproducibility with conventional tissue rinsing. Even if some protein losses were observed, the data mining has demonstrated that it was primarily low abundant signals and that the number of new peaks found is greater with the described procedure. The proposed buffer has thus demonstrated to be of high efficiency for tissue section preparation providing novel and complementary information for direct on-tissue MALDI analysis compared with solely conventional organic rinsing.

Novel MLPA procedure using self-designed probes allows comprehensive analysis for CNVs of the genes involved in Hirschsprung disease.

Background: Hirschsprung disease is characterized by the absence of intramural ganglion cells in the enteric plexuses, due to a fail during enteric nervous system formation. Hirschsprung has a complex genetic aetiology and mutations in several genes have been related to the disease. There is a clear predominance of missense/nonsense mutations in these genes whereas copy number variations (CNVs) have been seldom described, probably due to the limitations of conventional techniques usually employed for mutational analysis. In this study, we have looked for CNVs in some of the genes related to Hirschsprung (EDNRB, GFRA1, NRTN and PHOX2B) using the Multiple Ligation-dependent Probe Amplification (MLPA) approach. Methods: CNVs screening was performed in 208 HSCR patients using a self-designed set of MLPA probes, covering the coding region of those genes. Results: A deletion comprising the first 4 exons in GFRA1 gene was detected in 2 sporadic HSCR patients and in silico approaches have shown that the critical translation initiation signal in the mutant gene was abolished. In this study, we have been able to validate the reliability of this technique for CNVs screening in HSCR. Conclusions: The implemented MLPA based technique presented here allows CNV analysis of genes involved in HSCR that have not been not previously evaluated. Our results indicate that CNVs could be implicated in the pathogenesis of HSCR, although they seem to be an uncommon molecular cause of HSCR.

Serum hyaluronan and collagen IV as non-invasive markers of liver fibrosis in patients from an endemic area for schistosomiasis mansoni: a field-based study in Brazil

Non-invasive markers of fibrosis have been used to diagnose liver fibrosis in a variety of diseases. Hyaluronic acid (HA) and collagen IV (C-IV) levels were measured in the sera of patients from an endemic area for schistosomiasis in Brazil to diagnose and to rank the intensity of liver fibrosis. Seventy-nine adult patients with schistosomiasis, in the age range of 21-82 years (49 ± 13.4) were submitted to clinical and ultrasonographic examinations. Ultrasound was employed to diagnose and categorise liver fibrosis according to World Health Organization patterns. Serum HA and C-IV levels were measured using commercial ELISA kits. Ultrasound revealed six patients with intense liver fibrosis, 21 with moderate, 23 with light and 29 without. Serum HA was able to separate individuals with fibrosis from those without (p < 0.001) and light from intense fibrosis (p = 0.029), but C-IV was not (p = 0.692). The HA diagnostic accuracy for fibrosis was 0.89. The 115.4 ng/mL cut-off level diagnosed patients with fibrosis (sensitivity 0.98, specificity 0.64). HA correlated positively with portal hypertension. Periportal fibrosis (subjective evaluation), age and collateral circulation predicted HA increase. In conclusion, we propose that serum HA can be used to identify patients with liver fibrosis in an endemic area for schistosomiasis mansoni in Brazil.

Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte carriage, sex ratios and asexual parasite rates in Nigerian children before and after a treatment protocol policy change instituting the use of artemisinin-based combination therapies

The effects of artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs) on transmission of Plasmodium falciparum were evaluated after a policy change instituting the use of ACTs in an endemic area. P. falciparum gametocyte carriage, sex ratios and inbreeding rates were examined in 2,585 children at presentation with acute falciparum malaria during a 10-year period from 2001-2010. Asexual parasite rates were also evaluated from 2003-2010 in 10,615 children before and after the policy change. Gametocyte carriage declined significantly from 12.4% in 2001 to 3.6% in 2010 (@@χ² for trend = 44.3, p < 0.0001), but sex ratios and inbreeding rates remained unchanged. Additionally, overall parasite rates remained unchanged before and after the policy change (47.2% vs. 45.4%), but these rates declined significantly from 2003-2010 (@@χ² for trend 35.4, p < 0.0001). Chloroquine (CQ) and artemether-lumefantrine (AL) were used as prototype drugs before and after the policy change, respectively. AL significantly shortened the duration of male gametocyte carriage in individual patients after treatment began compared with CQ (log rank statistic = 7.92, p = 0.005). ACTs reduced the rate of gametocyte carriage in children with acute falciparum infections at presentation and shortened the duration of male gametocyte carriage after treatment. However, parasite population sex ratios, inbreeding rates and overall parasite rate were unaffected.

Conceptual framework and pilot study to benchmark phylogenomic databases based on reference gene trees.

Phylogenomic databases provide orthology predictions for species with fully sequenced genomes. Although the goal seems well-defined, the content of these databases differs greatly. Seven ortholog databases (Ensembl Compara, eggNOG, HOGENOM, InParanoid, OMA, OrthoDB, Panther) were compared on the basis of reference trees. For three well-conserved protein families, we observed a generally high specificity of orthology assignments for these databases. We show that differences in the completeness of predicted gene relationships and in the phylogenetic information are, for the great majority, not due to the methods used, but to differences in the underlying database concepts. According to our metrics, none of the databases provides a fully correct and comprehensive protein classification. Our results provide a framework for meaningful and systematic comparisons of phylogenomic databases. In the future, a sustainable set of 'Gold standard' phylogenetic trees could provide a robust method for phylogenomic databases to assess their current quality status, measure changes following new database releases and diagnose improvements subsequent to an upgrade of the analysis procedure.

Correlations between major risk factors and closely related Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates grouped by three current enotyping procedures: a population-based study in northeast Mexico

The characteristics of tuberculosis (TB) patients related to a chain of recent TB transmissions were investigated. Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates (120) were genotyped using the restriction fragment length polymorphism-IS6110 (R), spacer oligotyping (S) and mycobacterial interspersed repetitive units-variable number of tandem repeats (M) methods. The MTB isolates were clustered and the clusters were grouped according to the similarities of their genotypes. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between the groups of MTB isolates with similar genotypes and those patient characteristics indicating a risk for a pulmonary TB (PTB) chain transmission were ana- lysed. The isolates showing similar genotypes were distributed as follows: SMR (5%), SM (12.5%), SR (1.67%), MR (0%), S (46.67%), M (5%) and R (0%). The remaining 35 cases were orphans. SMR exhibited a significant correlation (p < 0.05) with visits to clinics, municipalities and comorbidities (primarily diabetes mellitus). S correlated with drug consumption and M with comorbidities. SMR is needed to identify a social network in metropolitan areas for PTB transmission and S and M are able to detect risk factors as secondary components of a transmission chain of TB.

Rank estimation of trajectory matrix in motion segmentation

A novel technique for estimating the rank of the trajectory matrix in the local subspace affinity (LSA) motion segmentation framework is presented. This new rank estimation is based on the relationship between the estimated rank of the trajectory matrix and the affinity matrix built with LSA. The result is an enhanced model selection technique for trajectory matrix rank estimation by which it is possible to automate LSA, without requiring any a priori knowledge, and to improve the final segmentation

Edge vascular response after polymer-free vs. polymer-based paclitaxel-eluting stent implantation.

BACKGROUND It is unknown if lack of polymer can provoke a different edge response in drug-eluting stents. The aim of this study was to compare edge vascular response between polymer-free paclitaxel-eluting stent (PF-PES) and polymer-based paclitaxel-eluting stents (PB-PES). METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 165 eligible patients undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention were prospectively randomized 1:1 to receive either PF-PES or PB-PES. Those patients with paired intravascular ultrasound (IVUS) after procedure and at 9-month follow-up were included in this analysis.Seventy-six patients with 84 lesions, divided into PB-PES (38 patients, 41 lesions) and PF-PES groups (38 patients, 43 lesions) had paired post-procedure and 9-month follow-up IVUS and were therefore included in this substudy. There was a significant lumen decrease at the proximal edge of PF-PES (from 9.02±3.06 mm(2)to 8.47±3.05 mm(2); P=0.040), and a significant plaque increase at the distal edges of PF-PES (from 4.39±2.73 mm(2)to 4.78±2.63 mm(2); P=0.004). At the distal edge there was a significant plaque increase in the PF-PES compared to PB-PES (+8.0% vs. -0.6%, respectively; P=0.015) with subsequent lumen reduction (-5.2% vs. +6.0%, respectively; P=0.024). CONCLUSIONS PF-PES had significant plaque increase and lumen reduction at the distal edge as compared to PB-PES, probably due to difference in polymer-based drug-release kinetics between the 2 platforms.

Functional calibration procedure for 3D knee joint angle description using inertial sensors.

Measurement of three-dimensional (3D) knee joint angle outside a laboratory is of benefit in clinical examination and therapeutic treatment comparison. Although several motion capture devices exist, there is a need for an ambulatory system that could be used in routine practice. Up-to-date, inertial measurement units (IMUs) have proven to be suitable for unconstrained measurement of knee joint differential orientation. Nevertheless, this differential orientation should be converted into three reliable and clinically interpretable angles. Thus, the aim of this study was to propose a new calibration procedure adapted for the joint coordinate system (JCS), which required only IMUs data. The repeatability of the calibration procedure, as well as the errors in the measurement of 3D knee angle during gait in comparison to a reference system were assessed on eight healthy subjects. The new procedure relying on active and passive movements reported a high repeatability of the mean values (offset<1 degrees) and angular patterns (SD<0.3 degrees and CMC>0.9). In comparison to the reference system, this functional procedure showed high precision (SD<2 degrees and CC>0.75) and moderate accuracy (between 4.0 degrees and 8.1 degrees) for the three knee angle. The combination of the inertial-based system with the functional calibration procedure proposed here resulted in a promising tool for the measurement of 3D knee joint angle. Moreover, this method could be adapted to measure other complex joint, such as ankle or elbow.

A new procedure to assess the energy requirements of lactation in Gambian women.

The combined 24-h energy expenditure (24-h EE) of mother and child was measured with a respiratory chamber (indirect calorimeter) in a group of 16 lactating Gambian women and was compared with that of a control group of 16 nonpregnant, nonlactating (NPNL) Gambian women. Breast-milk production (738 +/- 47 g/d: mean +/- SE) was adequate to allow a normal rate of growth of their 2-mo-old babies (28.0 +/- 2.4 g/d). The combined 24-h EE (mother and child) was higher (8381 +/- 180 kJ/d. P less than 0.001) than that of NPNL women (6092 +/- 121 kJ/d). Two-thirds of this differences could be attributed to the child's EE and one-third to a greater spontaneous physical activity of lactating women. The energy retained by the child for growth in conjunction with the calorimetric measurements allowed the calculation of the extra energy requirements for lactation, which were found to be 2100 kJ/d. These results confirm the values of the current dietary recommendations for lactation, based on the energy cost of milk production.

Magnetization transfer-based 3D visualization of foot peripheral nerves.

PURPOSE: To investigate magnetization transfer (MT) effects as a new source of contrast for imaging and tracking of peripheral foot nerves. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Two sets of 3D spoiled gradient-echo images acquired with and without a saturation pulse were used to generate MT ratio (MTR) maps of 260 μm in-plane resolution for eight volunteers at 3T. Scan parameters were adjusted to minimize signal loss due to T2 dephasing, and a dedicated coil was used to improve the inherently low signal-to-noise ratio of small voxels. Resulting MTR values in foot nerves were compared with those in surrounding muscle tissue. RESULTS: Average MTR values for muscle (45.5 ± 1.4%) and nerve (21.4 ± 3.1%) were significantly different (P < 0.0001). In general, the difference in MTR values was sufficiently large to allow for intensity-based segmentation and tracking of foot nerves in individual subjects. This procedure was termed MT-based 3D visualization. CONCLUSION: The MTR serves as a new source of contrast for imaging of peripheral foot nerves and provides a means for high spatial resolution tracking of these structures. The proposed methodology is directly applicable on standard clinical MR scanners and could be applied to systemic pathologies, such as diabetes.

Appropriateness of early management of newly diagnosed Crohn's disease in a European population-based cohort.

OBJECTIVE: The European Panel on the Appropriateness of Crohn's disease Therapy (EPACT) has developed appropriateness criteria. We have applied these criteria retrospectively to the population-based inception cohort of Crohn's disease (CD) patients of the European Collaborative Study Group on Inflammatory Bowel Disease (EC-IBD). MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 426 diagnosed CD patients from 13 European centers were enrolled at the time of diagnosis (first flare, naive patients). We used the EPACT definitions to identify 247 patients with active luminal CD. We then assessed the appropriateness of the initial drug prescription according to the EPACT criteria. RESULTS: Among the cohort patients 163 suffered from mild-to-moderate CD and 84 from severe CD. Among the mild-to-moderate disease group, 96 patients (59%) received an appropriate treatment, whereas for 66 patients (40%) the treatment was uncertain and in one case (1%) inappropriate. Among the severe disease group, 86% were treated medically and 14% required surgery. 59 (70%) were appropriately treated, whereas for one patient (1%) the procedure was considered uncertain and for 24 patients (29%) inappropriate. CONCLUSION: Initial treatment was appropriate in the majority of cases for non-complicated luminal CD. Inappropriate or uncertain treatment was given in a significant minority of patients, with an increased potential risk of adverse events.