The importance of individual heterogeneity in the decomposition of measures of socioeconomic inequality in health: An approach based on quantile regression

This paper shows how recently developed regression-based methods for thedecomposition of health inequality can be extended to incorporateindividual heterogeneity in the responses of health to the explanatoryvariables. We illustrate our method with an application to the CanadianNPHS of 1994. Our strategy for the estimation of heterogeneous responsesis based on the quantile regression model. The results suggest that thereis an important degree of heterogeneity in the association of health toexplanatory variables which, in turn, accounts for a substantial percentageof inequality in observed health. A particularly interesting finding isthat the marginal response of health to income is zero for healthyindividuals but positive and significant for unhealthy individuals. Theheterogeneity in the income response reduces both overall health inequalityand income related health inequality.

One-sided tolerance interval in a two-way balanced nested model with mixed effects

In many research areas (such as public health, environmental contamination, and others) one deals with the necessity of using data to infer whether some proportion (%) of a population of interest is (or one wants it to be) below and/or over some threshold, through the computation of tolerance interval. The idea is, once a threshold is given, one computes the tolerance interval or limit (which might be one or two - sided bounded) and then to check if it satisfies the given threshold. Since in this work we deal with the computation of one - sided tolerance interval, for the two-sided case we recomend, for instance, Krishnamoorthy and Mathew [5]. Krishnamoorthy and Mathew [4] performed the computation of upper tolerance limit in balanced and unbalanced one-way random effects models, whereas Fonseca et al [3] performed it based in a similar ideas but in a tow-way nested mixed or random effects model. In case of random effects model, Fonseca et al [3] performed the computation of such interval only for the balanced data, whereas in the mixed effects case they dit it only for the unbalanced data. For the computation of twosided tolerance interval in models with mixed and/or random effects we recomend, for instance, Sharma and Mathew [7]. The purpose of this paper is the computation of upper and lower tolerance interval in a two-way nested mixed effects models in balanced data. For the case of unbalanced data, as mentioned above, Fonseca et al [3] have already computed upper tolerance interval. Hence, using the notions persented in Fonseca et al [3] and Krishnamoorthy and Mathew [4], we present some results on the construction of one-sided tolerance interval for the balanced case. Thus, in order to do so at first instance we perform the construction for the upper case, and then the construction for the lower case.

Prevalence of hyperuricemia and relation of serum uric acid with cardiovascular risk factors in a developing country.

BACKGROUND: The prevalence of hyperuricemia has rarely been investigated in developing countries. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the prevalence of hyperuricemia and the association between uric acid levels and the various cardiovascular risk factors in a developing country with high average blood pressures (the Seychelles, Indian Ocean, population mainly of African origin). METHODS: This cross-sectional health examination survey was based on a population random sample from the Seychelles. It included 1011 subjects aged 25 to 64 years. Blood pressure (BP), body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, total and HDL cholesterol, serum triglycerides and serum uric acid were measured. Data were analyzed using scatterplot smoothing techniques and gender-specific linear regression models. RESULTS: The prevalence of a serum uric acid level >420 micromol/L in men was 35.2% and the prevalence of a serum uric acid level >360 micromol/L was 8.7% in women. Serum uric acid was strongly related to serum triglycerides in men as well as in women (r = 0.73 in men and r = 0.59 in women, p < 0.001). Uric acid levels were also significantly associated but to a lesser degree with age, BMI, blood pressure, alcohol and the use of antihypertensive therapy. In a regression model, triglycerides, age, BMI, antihypertensive therapy and alcohol consumption accounted for about 50% (R2) of the serum uric acid variations in men as well as in women. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that the prevalence of hyperuricemia can be high in a developing country such as the Seychelles. Besides alcohol consumption and the use of antihypertensive therapy, mainly diuretics, serum uric acid is markedly associated with parameters of the metabolic syndrome, in particular serum triglycerides. Considering the growing incidence of obesity and metabolic syndrome worldwide and the potential link between hyperuricemia and cardiovascular complications, more emphasis should be put on the evolving prevalence of hyperuricemia in developing countries.

Diet and the risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis in the INHANCE consortium.

We investigated the association between diet and head and neck cancer (HNC) risk using data from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. The INHANCE pooled data included 22 case-control studies with 14,520 cases and 22,737 controls. Center-specific quartiles among the controls were used for food groups, and frequencies per week were used for single food items. A dietary pattern score combining high fruit and vegetable intake and low red meat intake was created. Odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the dietary items on the risk of HNC were estimated with a two-stage random-effects logistic regression model. An inverse association was observed for higher-frequency intake of fruit (4th vs. 1st quartile OR = 0.52, 95% CI = 0.43-0.62, p (trend) < 0.01) and vegetables (OR = 0.66, 95% CI = 0.49-0.90, p (trend) = 0.01). Intake of red meat (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.13-1.74, p p (trend) < 0.01) was positively associated with HNC risk. Higher dietary pattern scores, reflecting high fruit/vegetable and low red meat intake, were associated with reduced HNC risk (per score increment OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.84-0.97).

Impacts of deforestation on water balance components of a watershed on the Brazilian East Coast

The Brazilian East coast was intensely affected by deforestation, which drastically cut back the original biome. The possible impacts of this process on water resources are still unknown. The purpose of this study was an evaluation of the impacts of deforestation on the main water balance components of the Galo creek watershed, in the State of Espírito Santo, on the East coast of Brazil. Considering the real conditions of the watershed, the SWAT model was calibrated with data from 1997 to 2000 and validated for the period between 2001 and 2003. The calibration and validation processes were evaluated by the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient and by the statistical parameters (determination coefficient, slope coefficient and F test) of the regression model adjusted for estimated and measured flow data. After calibration and validation of the model, new simulations were carried out for three different land use scenarios: a scenario in compliance with the law (C1), assuming the preservation of PPAs (permanent preservation areas); an optimistic scenario (C2), which considers the watershed to be almost entirely covered by native vegetation; and a pessimistic scenario (C3), in which the watershed would be almost entirely covered by pasture. The scenarios C1, C2 and C3 represent a soil cover of native forest of 76, 97 and 0 %, respectively. The results were compared with the simulation, considering the real scenario (C0) with 54 % forest cover. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.65 and 0.70 for calibration and validation, respectively, indicating satisfactory results in the flow simulation. A mean reduction of 10 % of the native forest cover would cause a mean annual increase of approximately 11.5 mm in total runoff at the watershed outlet. Reforestation would ensure minimum flows in the dry period and regulate the maximum flow of the main watercourse of the watershed.

MGMT methylation analysis of glioblastoma on the Infinium methylation BeadChip identifies two distinct CpG regions associated with gene silencing and outcome, yielding a prediction model for comparisons across datasets, tumor grades, and CIMP-status.

The methylation status of the O(6)-methylguanine-DNA methyltransferase (MGMT) gene is an important predictive biomarker for benefit from alkylating agent therapy in glioblastoma. Recent studies in anaplastic glioma suggest a prognostic value for MGMT methylation. Investigation of pathogenetic and epigenetic features of this intriguingly distinct behavior requires accurate MGMT classification to assess high throughput molecular databases. Promoter methylation-mediated gene silencing is strongly dependent on the location of the methylated CpGs, complicating classification. Using the HumanMethylation450 (HM-450K) BeadChip interrogating 176 CpGs annotated for the MGMT gene, with 14 located in the promoter, two distinct regions in the CpG island of the promoter were identified with high importance for gene silencing and outcome prediction. A logistic regression model (MGMT-STP27) comprising probes cg1243587 and cg12981137 provided good classification properties and prognostic value (kappa = 0.85; log-rank p < 0.001) using a training-set of 63 glioblastomas from homogenously treated patients, for whom MGMT methylation was previously shown to be predictive for outcome based on classification by methylation-specific PCR. MGMT-STP27 was successfully validated in an independent cohort of chemo-radiotherapy-treated glioblastoma patients (n = 50; kappa = 0.88; outcome, log-rank p < 0.001). Lower prevalence of MGMT methylation among CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) positive tumors was found in glioblastomas from The Cancer Genome Atlas than in low grade and anaplastic glioma cohorts, while in CIMP-negative gliomas MGMT was classified as methylated in approximately 50 % regardless of tumor grade. The proposed MGMT-STP27 prediction model allows mining of datasets derived on the HM-450K or HM-27K BeadChip to explore effects of distinct epigenetic context of MGMT methylation suspected to modulate treatment resistance in different tumor types.

Exposure to bioaerosols, respiratory health and lung-specific proteins: a prospective study in garbage and wastewater workers.

Objectives To prospectively assess respiratory health in wastewater workers and garbage collectors over 5 years. Methods Exposure, respiratory symptoms and conditions, spirometry and lung-specific proteins were assessed yearly in a cohort of 304 controls, 247 wastewater workers and 52 garbage collectors. Results were analysed with random coefficient models and linear regression taking into account several potential confounders. Results Symptoms, spirometry and lung-specific proteins were not affected by occupational exposure. Conclusions In this population no effects of occupational exposure to bioaerosols were found, probably because of good working conditions.

Measuring potentially avoidable hospital readmissions.

The objectives of this study were to develop a computerized method to screen for potentially avoidable hospital readmissions using routinely collected data and a prediction model to adjust rates for case mix. We studied hospital information system data of a random sample of 3,474 inpatients discharged alive in 1997 from a university hospital and medical records of those (1,115) readmitted within 1 year. The gold standard was set on the basis of the hospital data and medical records: all readmissions were classified as foreseen readmissions, unforeseen readmissions for a new affection, or unforeseen readmissions for a previously known affection. The latter category was submitted to a systematic medical record review to identify the main cause of readmission. Potentially avoidable readmissions were defined as a subgroup of unforeseen readmissions for a previously known affection occurring within an appropriate interval, set to maximize the chance of detecting avoidable readmissions. The computerized screening algorithm was strictly based on routine statistics: diagnosis and procedures coding and admission mode. The prediction was based on a Poisson regression model. There were 454 (13.1%) unforeseen readmissions for a previously known affection within 1 year. Fifty-nine readmissions (1.7%) were judged avoidable, most of them occurring within 1 month, which was the interval used to define potentially avoidable readmissions (n = 174, 5.0%). The intra-sample sensitivity and specificity of the screening algorithm both reached approximately 96%. Higher risk for potentially avoidable readmission was associated with previous hospitalizations, high comorbidity index, and long length of stay; lower risk was associated with surgery and delivery. The model offers satisfactory predictive performance and a good medical plausibility. The proposed measure could be used as an indicator of inpatient care outcome. However, the instrument should be validated using other sets of data from various hospitals.

Social and medical vulnerability factors of frequent users at the emergency department: a case-control study

BACKGROUND: Up to 5% of patients presenting to the emergency department (ED) four or more times within a 12 month period represent 21% of total ED visits. In this study we sought to characterize social and medical vulnerability factors of ED frequent users (FUs) and to explore if these factors hold simultaneously. METHODS: We performed a case-control study at Lausanne University Hospital, Switzerland. Patients over 18 years presenting to the ED at least once within the study period (April 2008 toMarch 2009) were included. FUs were defined as patients with four or more ED visits within the previous 12 months. Outcome data were extracted from medical records of the first ED attendance within the study period. Outcomes included basic demographics and social variables, ED admission diagnosis, somatic and psychiatric days hospitalized over 12 months, and having a primary care physician.We calculated the percentage of FUs and non-FUs having at least one social and one medical vulnerability factor. The four chosen social factors included: unemployed and/or dependence on government welfare, institutionalized and/or without fixed residence, either separated, divorced or widowed, and under guardianship. The fourmedical vulnerability factors were: ≥6 somatic days hospitalized, ≥1 psychiatric days hospitalized, ≥5 clinical departments used (all three factors measured over 12 months), and ED admission diagnosis of alcohol and/or drug abuse. Univariate and multivariate logistical regression analyses allowed comparison of two JGIM ABSTRACTS S391 random samples of 354 FUs and 354 non-FUs (statistical power 0.9, alpha 0.05 for all outcomes except gender, country of birth, and insurance type). RESULTS: FUs accounted for 7.7% of ED patients and 24.9% of ED visits. Univariate logistic regression showed that FUs were older (mean age 49.8 vs. 45.2 yrs, p=0.003),more often separated and/or divorced (17.5%vs. 13.9%, p=0.029) or widowed (13.8% vs. 8.8%, p=0.029), and either unemployed or dependent on government welfare (31.3% vs. 13.3%, p<0.001), compared to non-FUs. FUs cumulated more days hospitalized over 12 months (mean number of somatic days per patient 1.0 vs. 0.3, p<0.001; mean number of psychiatric days per patient 0.12 vs. 0.03, p<0.001). The two groups were similar regarding gender distribution (females 51.7% vs. 48.3%). The multivariate linear regression model was based on the six most significant factors identified by univariate analysis The model showed that FUs had more social problems, as they were more likely to be institutionalized or not have a fixed residence (OR 4.62; 95% CI, 1.65 to 12.93), and to be unemployed or dependent on government welfare (OR 2.03; 95% CI, 1.31 to 3.14) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to need medical care, as indicated by involvement of≥5 clinical departments over 12 months (OR 6.2; 95%CI, 3.74 to 10.15), having an ED admission diagnosis of substance abuse (OR 3.23; 95% CI, 1.23 to 8.46) and having a primary care physician (OR 1.70;95%CI, 1.13 to 2.56); however, they were less likely to present with an admission diagnosis of injury (OR 0.64; 95% CI, 0.40 to 1.00) compared to non-FUs. FUs were more likely to combine at least one social with one medical vulnerability factor (38.4% vs. 12.1%, OR 7.74; 95% CI 5.03 to 11.93). CONCLUSIONS: FUs were more likely than non-FUs to have social and medical vulnerability factors and to have multiple factors in combination.

Estudo do coeficiente de partição octanol-água de bifenilas policloradas (PCBs) utilizando parâmetros topológicos

A model based on chemical structure was developed for the accurate prediction of octanol/water partition coefficient (K OW) of polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), which are molecules of environmental interest. Partial least squares (PLS) was used to build the regression model. Topological indices were used as molecular descriptors. Variable selection was performed by Hierarchical Cluster Analysis (HCA). In the modeling process, the experimental K OW measured for 30 PCBs by thin-layer chromatography - retention time (TLC-RT) has been used. The developed model (Q² = 0,990 and r² = 0,994) was used to estimate the log K OW values for the 179 PCB congeners whose K OW data have not yet been measured by TLC-RT method. The results showed that topological indices can be very useful to predict the K OW.

Ex-Dividend Day Returns when Dividend and Capital Gains are Taxed at the Same Rate

Due to the overwhelming international evidence that stock prices drop by less than the dividend paid on ex-dividend days, the ex-dividend day anomaly is considered a stylized fact. Two main approaches have emerged to explain this empirical regularity: the tax-clientele hypothesis and the microstructure of financial markets. Although the most widely accepted explanation for this fact relies on taxes, the ex-dividend day anomaly has been reported even in countries where neither dividends nor capital gains are taxed. The 2006 tax reform in Spain established the same tax rate for dividends and capital gains. This paper investigates stock returns on ex-dividend days in the Spanish stock market after the 2006 tax reform using a random coefficient model. Contrary to previous research, we do not observe an ex-dividend day anomaly. Unlike previous investigations, which are mostly concerned with suggesting explanations as to why this anomaly has occurred, we are in the somewhat strange position of discussing why this anomaly has not occurred. Our findings are robust across companies and stock dividend yields, thus supporting a tax--based explanation for the ex-dividend day anomaly.

Impact d’une infection intra-mammaire causée par Staphylococcus aureus ou un staphylocoque coagulase-négative présente en début de lactation chez les taures laitières

L’objectif de cette étude était de déterminer l’impact d’une infection intra-mammaire (IIM) subclinique causée par staphylocoque coagulase-négative (SCN) ou Staphylococcus aureus diagnostiquée durant le premier mois de lactation chez les taures sur le comptage de cellules somatiques (CCS), la production laitière et le risque de réforme durant la lactation en cours. Des données bactériologiques provenant d’échantillons de lait composites de 2 273 taures Holstein parmi 50 troupeaux ont été interprétées selon les recommandations du National Mastitis Council. Parmi 1 691 taures rencontrant les critères de sélection, 90 (5%) étaient positives à S. aureus, 168 (10%) étaient positives à SCN et 153 (9%) étaient négatives (aucun agent pathogène isolé). Le CCS transformé en logarithme népérien (lnCCS) a été modélisé via une régression linéaire avec le troupeau comme effet aléatoire. Le lnCCS chez les groupes S. aureus et SCN était significativement plus élevé que dans le groupe témoin de 40 à 300 jours en lait (JEL) (P < 0.0001 pour tous les contrastes). La valeur journalière du lnSCC chez les groupes S. aureus et SCN était en moyenne 1.2 et 0.6 plus élevé que le groupe témoin respectivement. Un modèle similaire a été réalisé pour la production laitière avec l’âge au vêlage, le trait génétique lié aux parents pour la production laitière et le logarithme népérien du JEL de la pesée inclus. La production laitière n’était pas statistiquement différente entre les 3 groupes de culture de 40 à 300 JEL (P ≥ 0.12). Les modèles de survie de Cox ont révélé que le risque de réforme n’était pas statistiquement différent entre le groupe S. aureus ou SCN et le groupe témoin (P ≥ 0.16). La prévention des IIM causées par SCN et S. aureus en début de lactation demeure importante étant donné leur association avec le CCS durant la lactation en cours.

Imputation en présence de données contenant des zéros

L’imputation simple est très souvent utilisée dans les enquêtes pour compenser pour la non-réponse partielle. Dans certaines situations, la variable nécessitant l’imputation prend des valeurs nulles un très grand nombre de fois. Ceci est très fréquent dans les enquêtes entreprises qui collectent les variables économiques. Dans ce mémoire, nous étudions les propriétés de deux méthodes d’imputation souvent utilisées en pratique et nous montrons qu’elles produisent des estimateurs imputés biaisés en général. Motivé par un modèle de mélange, nous proposons trois méthodes d’imputation et étudions leurs propriétés en termes de biais. Pour ces méthodes d’imputation, nous considérons un estimateur jackknife de la variance convergent vers la vraie variance, sous l’hypothèse que la fraction de sondage est négligeable. Finalement, nous effectuons une étude par simulation pour étudier la performance des estimateurs ponctuels et de variance en termes de biais et d’erreur quadratique moyenne.

Aspects méthodologiques, mesure et facteurs associés à l’autonomie des patients utilisant les technologies de dialyse péritonéale à domicile

La dialyse péritonéale (DP) est une thérapie d’épuration extra-rénale qui peut se réaliser à domicile par l’entremise d’une technologie. Elle exige, du patient certaines aptitudes, (motivation et compétence) et de l’équipe de soins, une organisation particulière pour arriver à une autonomie d’exécution de l’épuration. Dans un contexte de thérapie à domicile, comme celui de la dialyse péritonéale, le niveau d’autonomie des patients ainsi que les facteurs qui y sont associés n’ont pas été examinés auparavant. C’est l’objet de cette thèse. En se fondant sur la théorie de l’autodétermination et sur une revue de la littérature, un cadre conceptuel a été développé et fait l’hypothèse que trois types de facteurs essentiels pourraient influencer l’autonomie. Il s’agit de facteurs individuels, technologiques et organisationnels. Pour tester ces hypothèses, un devis mixte séquentiel, composé de deux volets, a été réalisé. Un premier volet qualitatif - opérationnalisé par des entrevues auprès de 12 patients et de 11 infirmières - a permis, d’une part, d’explorer et de mieux définir les dimensions de l’autonomie pertinente dans le cadre de la DP; d’autre part de bonifier le développement d’un questionnaire. Après validation, ce dernier a servi à la collecte de données lors du deuxième volet quantitatif et alors a permis d’obtenir des résultats auprès d’un échantillon probabiliste (n =98), tiré de la population des dialysés péritonéaux du Québec (N=700). L’objectif de ce deuxième volet était de mesurer le degré d’autonomie des patients, d’examiner les associations entre les facteurs technologiques, organisationnels ainsi qu’individuels et les différentes dimensions de l’autonomie. Des analyses univariées et multivariées ont été réalisées à cet effet. Les résultats obtenus montrent que quatre dimensions d’autonomie sont essentielles à atteindre en dialyse à domicile. Il s’agit de l’autonomie, sur le plan clinique, technique, fonctionnel (liberté journalière) et organisationnel (indépendance par rapport à l’institution de soins). Pour ces quatre types d’autonomie, les patients ont rapporté être hautement autonomes, un résultat qui se reflète dans les scores obtenus sur une échelle de 1 à 5 : l’autonomie clinique (4,1), l’autonomie technique (4,8), l’autonomie fonctionnelle (4,1) et l’autonomie organisationnelle (4,5). Chacun de ces types d’autonomie est associé à des degrés variables aux trois facteurs du modèle conceptuel : facteurs individuels (motivation et compétence), technologique (convivialité) et organisationnels (soutien clinique, technique et familial). Plus spécifiquement, la motivation serait associée à l’autonomie fonctionnelle. La convivialité serait associée à l’autonomie clinique, alors que la myopathie pourrait la compromettre. La convivialité de la technologie et la compétence du patient contribueraient à une meilleure autonomie organisationnelle. Quant à l’autonomie sur le plan technique, tous les patients ont rapporté être hautement autonomes en ce qui concerne la manipulation de la technologie. Ce résultat s’expliquerait par une formation adéquate mise à la disposition des patients en prédialyse, par le suivi continu et par la manipulation quotidienne pendant des années d’utilisation. Bien que dans cette thèse la technologie d’application soit la dialyse péritonéale, nous retenons que lorsqu’on transfère la maîtrise d’une technologie thérapeutique à domicile pour traiter une maladie chronique, il est primordial d’organiser ce transfert de telle façon que les trois facteurs techniques (convivialité), individuels (motivation, formation et compétence), et organisationnels (soutien de l’aidant) soient mis en place pour garantir une autonomie aux quatre niveaux, technique, clinique, fonctionnel et organisationnel.

Analyse et explication de la variation du taux d’homicide en Europe

Le taux d’homicide est un bon indicateur de la violence générale dans un pays. De plus, il s’agit du crime le mieux mesuré car il est rare qu’un homicide passe inaperçu. De nombreux auteurs ont donc cherché à expliquer ce qui pouvait influencer la variation du taux d’homicide dans les pays du monde. Leurs résultats ont mis à jour certains prédicteurs qui influenceraient le taux d’homicide dans les pays du monde. Il s’agit notamment du niveau de vie mesuré à l’aide du PIB par habitant, de l’inégalité, mesuré à l’aide du coefficient GINI ou encore des facteurs démographiques. Ces facteurs criminogènes sont tous de niveau macroscopique sur lesquels il est difficile d’agir. Ce mémoire intégrera au modèle, en plus des prédicteurs déjà connus, des variables plus proximales (consommation d’alcool, de drogue, présence de criminalité organisée, corruption, taux de criminalité, etc.) afin de voir s’ils pourraient également influencer la variation du taux d’homicide. Cette étude se concentrera sur le taux d’homicide de 41 pays européens. Une sélection de nos variables sera effectuée à l’aide d’analyses bivariées (corrélation, corrélation partielle) avant d’intégrer les variables restantes dans plusieurs modèles de régression multiple qui permettra in fine d’isoler les variables ayant une réelle influence sur le taux d’homicide. Les résultats indiquent que les facteurs proximaux ont une réelle influence sur le taux d’homicide. En effet, non seulement deux variables proximales (l’abus de la consommation d’alcool, et le pourcentage de personne s’étant déclaré victime de cambriolage) sont, après avoir pris en considération de nombreuses variables de niveau macroscopique, significativement liées au taux d’homicide mais en plus, le fait d’intégrer ce type de variables dans un modèle de régression multiple fait augmenter la variance expliquée. Ces variables de type proximales ont donc une grande importance dans l’explication de la variation du taux d’homicide.