Competition and cost overruns. Optimal misspecification of procurement contracts

Most cases of cost overruns in public procurement are related to important changes in the initial project design. This paper deals with the problem of design specification in public procurement and provides a rationale for design misspecification. We propose a model in which the sponsor decides how much to invest in design specification and awards competitively the project to a contractor. After the project has been awarded the sponsor engages in bilateral renegotiation with the contractor, in order to accommodate changes in the initial project s design that new information makes desirable. When procurement takes place in the presence of horizontally differentiated contractors, the design s specification level is seen to affect the resulting degree of competition. The paper highlights this interaction between market competition and design specification and shows that the sponsor s optimal strategy, when facing an imperfectly competitive market supply, is to underinvest in design specification so as to make significant cost overruns likely. Since no such misspecification occurs in a perfectly competitive market, cost overruns are seen to arise as a consequence of lack of competition in the procurement market.

Competition and cost overruns in procurement

Most cases of cost overruns in public procurement are related to important changes in theinitial project design. This paper deals with the problem of design speciffication in public procurement and provides a rationale for design misspeciffication. We propose a model in which the sponsor decides how much to invest in design speciffication and awards competitively the project to a contractor. After the project has been awarded the sponsor engages in bilateral renegotiation with the contractor, in order to accommodate changes in the initial project's design that new information makes desirable. When procurement takes place in the presence of horizontally differentiated contractors, the design's speciffication level is seen to affect the resulting degree of competition. The paper highlights this interaction between market competition and design speciffication and shows that the sponsor's optimal strategy, when facing an imperfectly competitive market supply, is to underinvest in design speciffication so as to make signifficant cost overrunslikely. Since no such misspeciffication occurs in a perfectly competitive market, cost overruns are seen to arise as a consequence of lack of competition in the procurement market.

Wild bids. Gambling for resurrection in procurement contracts

This paper analyzes the problem of abnormally low tenders in theprocurement process. Limited liability causes firms in a bad financialsituation to bid more aggressively than good firms in the procurementauction. Therefore, it is more likely that the winning firm is a firm infinancial difficulties with a high risk of bankruptcy. The paper analyzesthe different regulatory practices to face this problem with a specialemphasis on surety bonds used e.g. in the US. We characterize the optimalsurety bond and show that it does not coincide with the current USregulation. In particular we show that under a natural assumption the USregulation is too expensive and provides overinsurance to the problem ofabnormally low tenders.

Review of targeted small business procurement activities for the year ended June 30, 2008

Review of targeted small business procurement activities for the year ended June 30, 2008

Corruption and competition in procurement

We consider a procurement problem in which the procurement agent is supposed to allocate the realization of a project according to a competitive mechanism that values bids in terms of the proposed price and quality. Potential bidders have private information about their production costs. Since the procurement agent is also in charge of verifying delivered quality, in exchange for a bribe, he can allow an arbitrary firm to be awarded the realization of the project and to produce a quality level lower than the announced. We compute the equilibrium level of corruption and we study the impact on corruption of the competitiveness of the environment, and in particular of: i) an increase in the number of potential suppliers of the good or service to be procured, ii) competitive (rather than collusive) behavior of procurement agents, and iii) an increase of competition in the market for procurement agents. We identify the effects that influence the equilibrium level of corruption and show that, contrary to conventional wisdom, corruption may well be increasing in competition.

Heterogeneity-promoting optimal procurement

When procurement takes place in the presence of horizontally differentiated contractors, the design of the object being procured affects the resulting degree of competition. This paper highlights the interaction between theoptimal procurement mechanism and the design choice. Contrary to conventional wisdom, the sponsor's design choice, instead of homogenizingthe market to generate competition, promotes heterogeneity.

Quality assessment of cardiovascular magnetic resonance in the setting of the European CMR registry: description and validation of standardized criteria.

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) has become an important diagnostic imaging modality in cardiovascular medicine. However, insufficient image quality may compromise its diagnostic accuracy. We aimed to describe and validate standardized criteria to evaluate a) cine steady-state free precession (SSFP), b) late gadolinium enhancement (LGE), and c) stress first-pass perfusion images. These criteria will serve for quality assessment in the setting of the Euro-CMR registry. METHODS: Thirty-five qualitative criteria were defined (scores 0-3) with lower scores indicating better image quality. In addition, quantitative parameters were measured yielding 2 additional quality criteria, i.e. signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of non-infarcted myocardium (as a measure of correct signal nulling of healthy myocardium) for LGE and % signal increase during contrast medium first-pass for perfusion images. These qualitative and quantitative criteria were assessed in a total of 90 patients (60 patients scanned at our own institution at 1.5T (n=30) and 3T (n=30) and in 30 patients randomly chosen from the Euro-CMR registry examined at 1.5T). Analyses were performed by 2 SCMR level-3 experts, 1 trained study nurse, and 1 trained medical student. RESULTS: The global quality score was 6.7±4.6 (n=90, mean of 4 observers, maximum possible score 64), range 6.4-6.9 (p=0.76 between observers). It ranged from 4.0-4.3 for 1.5T (p=0.96 between observers), from 5.9-6.9 for 3T (p=0.33 between observers), and from 8.6-10.3 for the Euro-CMR cases (p=0.40 between observers). The inter- (n=4) and intra-observer (n=2) agreement for the global quality score, i.e. the percentage of assignments to the same quality tertile ranged from 80% to 88% and from 90% to 98%, respectively. The agreement for the quantitative assessment for LGE images (scores 0-2 for SNR <2, 2-5, >5, respectively) ranged from 78-84% for the entire population, and 70-93% at 1.5T, 64-88% at 3T, and 72-90% for the Euro-CMR cases. The agreement for perfusion images (scores 0-2 for %SI increase >200%, 100%-200%,<100%, respectively) ranged from 81-91% for the entire population, and 76-100% at 1.5T, 67-96% at 3T, and 62-90% for the Euro-CMR registry cases. The intra-class correlation coefficient for the global quality score was 0.83. CONCLUSIONS: The described criteria for the assessment of CMR image quality are robust with a good inter- and intra-observer agreement. Further research is needed to define the impact of image quality on the diagnostic and prognostic yield of CMR studies.

A new electrocardiographic criteria for discriminating between Brugada types 2 and 3 patterns and incomplete right bundle branch block

Le syndrome de Brugada, une affection rythmique du sujet jeune potentiellement fatale, se manifeste sur l'ECG par un bloc de branche droit (BBD) complet, avec sus-décalage majeur du segment ST et inversion des ondes Τ de V1 à V3 appelé pattern de type 1. Cette présentation peut être intermittente. Les manifestations incomplètes du syndrome de Brugada sont appelées patterns de types 2 ou 3, et sont caractérisées par un BBD incomplet et un sus-décalage ST plus ou moins prononcé dans les dérivations V-, et V2 de l'ECG. Cette description, cependant, est aussi celle du BBD incomplet fréquemment rencontré chez les sujets jeunes, de moins de 40 ans, et présent dans 3% de la population. Bo nombre de ces sujets sont donc référés pour une recherche de syndrome de Brugada. Le but de cette thèse est donc d'évaluer de nouveaux critères permettant de discriminer les BBD incomplets, banals, des sujets porteurs d'un syndrome de Brugada de types 2 ou 3. Trente-huit patients avec un pattern de Brugada de types 2 et 3, référés pour un test médicamenteux utilisant un antiarythmique révélant un pattern de type 1 chez les sujets porteurs, ont été inclus dans l'étude. Avant le test médicamenteux, deux angles ont été mesurés sur les dérivations Vi et/ou V2 : a, l'angle entre une ligne verticale et la descente de l'onde r', et β, l'angle entre la montée de l'onde S et la descente de l'onde r'. Les mesure à l'état basai des deux angles, seules ou combinées avec la durée du QRS, on été comparées entre les patients avec une épreuve pharmacologique positive et ceux dont l'épreuve s'est révélée négative (i.e. servant de groupe contrôle car porteur d'un véritable BBD incomplet). Des courbes ROC ont été établies afin de déterminer les valeurs d'angles les plus discriminantes. La moyenne des angles β était significativement plus petite chez les 14 patients avec un test pharmacologique négatif comparé aux 24 patients avec un test positif. La valeur optimale pour l'angle β était de 58°, ce qui donnait une valeur prédictive positive de 73% et une valeur prédictive négative de 97% pour une conversion en pattern de type 1 lors du test pharmacologique. L'angle α était un peu moins sensible et spécifique que β. Quand les angles étaient combinés à la durée du QRS, on observait une discrète amélioration de la discrimination entre les deux populations. Notre travail permet donc, chez des patients suspects d'un syndrome de Brugada, de discriminer entre un BBD incomplet et les patterns de Brugada types 2 et 3 en utilisant un critère simple basé sur l'ECG de surface potentiellement applicable au lit du patient

ITMIG consensus statement on the use of the WHO histological classification of thymoma and thymic carcinoma: refined definitions, histological criteria, and reporting.

INTRODUCTION: The 2004 version of the World Health Organization classification subdivides thymic epithelial tumors into A, AB, B1, B2, and B3 (and rare other) thymomas and thymic carcinomas (TC). Due to a morphological continuum between some thymoma subtypes and some morphological overlap between thymomas and TC, a variable proportion of cases may pose problems in classification, contributing to the poor interobserver reproducibility in some studies. METHODS: To overcome this problem, hematoxylin-eosin-stained and immunohistochemically processed sections of prototypic, "borderland," and "combined" thymomas and TC (n = 72) were studied by 18 pathologists at an international consensus slide workshop supported by the International Thymic Malignancy Interest Group. RESULTS: Consensus was achieved on refined criteria for decision making at the A/AB borderland, the distinction between B1, B2, and B3 thymomas and the separation of B3 thymomas from TCs. "Atypical type A thymoma" is tentatively proposed as a new type A thymoma variant. New reporting strategies for tumors with more than one histological pattern are proposed. CONCLUSION: These guidelines can set the stage for reproducibility studies and the design of a clinically meaningful grading system for thymic epithelial tumors.

Quality of assessement of CMR images in the setting of the European cardiovascular magnetic resonance registry : description and validation of standardized criteria

l'imagerie par résonance magnétique (IRMC) est une technologie utilisée depuis les aimées quatre¬-vingts dans le monde de la cardiologie. Cette technique d'imagerie non-invasive permet d'acquérir Ses images du coeur en trois dimensions, dans n'importe quel, plan, sans application de radiation, et en haute résolution. Actuellement, cette technique est devenue un référence dans l'évaluation et 'l'investigation de différentes pathologies cardiaques. La morphologie cardiaque, la fonction des ventricules ainsi que leur contraction, la perfusion tissulaire ainsi que la viabilité tissulaire peuvent être caractérisés en utilisant différentes séquences d'imagerie. Cependant, cette technologie repose sur des principes physiques complexes et la mise en pratique de cette technique se heurte à la difficulté d'évaluer un organe en mouvement permanent. L'IRM cardiaque est donc sujette à différents artefacts qui perturbent l'interprétation des examens et peuvent diminuer la précision diagnostique de cette technique. A notre connaissance, la plupart des images d'IRMC sont analysées et interprétées sans évaluation rigoureuse de la qualité intrinsèque de l'examen. Jusqu'à présent, et à notre connaissance, aucun critère d'évaluation de la qualité des examens d'IRMC n'a été clairement déterminé. L'équipe d'IRMC du CHUV, dirigée par le Prof J. Schwitter, a recensé une liste de 35 critères qualitatifs et 12 critères quantitatifs évaluant la qualité d'un examen d'IRMC et les a introduit dans une grille d'évaluation. L'objet de cette étude est de décrire et de valider la reproductibilité des critères figurant dans cette grille d'évaluation, par l'interprétation simultanée d'examens IRMC par différents observateurs (cardiologues spécialisés en IRM, étudiant en médecine, infirmière spécialisée). Notre étude a permis de démontrer que les critères définis pour l'évaluation des examens d'IRMC sont robustes, et permettent une bonne reproductibilité intra- et inter-observateurs. Cette étude valide ainsi l'utilisation de ces critères de qualité dans le cadre de l'imagerie par résonance magnétique cardiaque. D'autres études sont encore nécessaires afin de déterminer l'impact de la qualité de l'image sur la précision diagnostique de cette technique. Les critères standardisés que nous avons validés seront utilisés pour évaluer la qualité des images dans le cadre d'une étude à échelle européenne relative à l'IRMC : "l'EuroCMR registry". Parmi les autres utilités visées par ces critères de qualité, citons notamment la possibilité d'avoir une référence d'évaluation de la qualité d'examen pour toutes les futures études cliniques utilisant la technologie d'IRMC, de permettre aux centres d'IRMC de quantifier leur niveau de qualité, voire de créer un certificat de standard de qualité pour ces centres, d'évaluer la reproductibilité de l'évaluation des images par différents observateurs d'un même centre, ou encore d'évaluer précisément la qualité des séquences développées à l'avenir dans le monde de l'IRMC.

Defining new criteria for selection of cell-based intestinal models using publicly available databases.

BACKGROUND: The criteria for choosing relevant cell lines among a vast panel of available intestinal-derived lines exhibiting a wide range of functional properties are still ill-defined. The objective of this study was, therefore, to establish objective criteria for choosing relevant cell lines to assess their appropriateness as tumor models as well as for drug absorption studies. RESULTS: We made use of publicly available expression signatures and cell based functional assays to delineate differences between various intestinal colon carcinoma cell lines and normal intestinal epithelium. We have compared a panel of intestinal cell lines with patient-derived normal and tumor epithelium and classified them according to traits relating to oncogenic pathway activity, epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT) and stemness, migratory properties, proliferative activity, transporter expression profiles and chemosensitivity. For example, SW480 represent an EMT-high, migratory phenotype and scored highest in terms of signatures associated to worse overall survival and higher risk of recurrence based on patient derived databases. On the other hand, differentiated HT29 and T84 cells showed gene expression patterns closest to tumor bulk derived cells. Regarding drug absorption, we confirmed that differentiated Caco-2 cells are the model of choice for active uptake studies in the small intestine. Regarding chemosensitivity we were unable to confirm a recently proposed association of chemo-resistance with EMT traits. However, a novel signature was identified through mining of NCI60 GI50 values that allowed to rank the panel of intestinal cell lines according to their drug responsiveness to commonly used chemotherapeutics. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents a straightforward strategy to exploit publicly available gene expression data to guide the choice of cell-based models. While this approach does not overcome the major limitations of such models, introducing a rank order of selected features may allow selecting model cell lines that are more adapted and pertinent to the addressed biological question.

Review of targeted small business procurement activities for the year ended June 30, 2010

Review of targeted small business procurement activities for the year ended June 30, 2010

Performance of panel-based criteria to evaluate the appropriateness of colonoscopy: a prospective study.

BACKGROUND: Prospective data describing the appropriateness of use of colonoscopy based on detailed panel-based clinical criteria are not available. METHODS: In a cohort of 553 consecutive patients referred for colonoscopy to two university-based Swiss outpatient clinics, the percentage of patients who underwent colonoscopy for appropriate, equivocal, and inappropriate indications and the relationship between appropriateness of use and the presence of relevant endoscopic lesions was prospectively assessed. This assessment was based on criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy and explicit American and Swiss criteria developed in 1994 by a formal panel process using the RAND/UCLA appropriateness method. RESULTS: The procedures were rated appropriate or equivocal in 72.2% by criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy, in 68.5% by explicit American criteria, and in 74.4% by explicit Swiss criteria (not statistically significant, NS). Inappropriate use (overuse) of colonoscopy was found in 27.8%, 31.5%, and 25.6%, respectively (NS). The proportion of appropriate procedures was higher with increasing age. Almost all reasons for using colonoscopy could be assessed by the two explicit criteria sets, whereas 28.4% of reasons for using colonoscopy could not be evaluated by the criteria of the American Society for Gastrointestinal Endoscopy (p < 0.0001). The probability of finding a relevant endoscopic lesion was distinctly higher in the procedures rated appropriate or equivocal than in procedures judged inappropriate. CONCLUSIONS: The rate of inappropriate use of colonoscopy is substantial in Switzerland. Explicit criteria allow assessment of almost all indications encountered in clinical practice. In this study, all sets of appropriateness criteria significantly enhanced the probability of finding a relevant endoscopic lesion during colonoscopy.