Probabilistic age classification with Bayesian networks: a study on the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis

In the past few decades, the rise of criminal, civil and asylum cases involving young people lacking valid identification documents has generated an increase in the demand of age estimation. The chronological age or the probability that an individual is older or younger than a given age threshold are generally estimated by means of some statistical methods based on observations performed on specific physical attributes. Among these statistical methods, those developed in the Bayesian framework allow users to provide coherent and transparent assignments which fulfill forensic and medico-legal purposes. The application of the Bayesian approach is facilitated by using probabilistic graphical tools, such as Bayesian networks. The aim of this work is to test the performances of the Bayesian network for age estimation recently presented in scientific literature in classifying individuals as older or younger than 18 years of age. For these exploratory analyses, a sample related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis available in scientific literature was used. Results obtained in the classification are promising: in the criminal context, the Bayesian network achieved, on the average, a rate of correct classifications of approximatively 97%, whilst in the civil context, the rate is, on the average, close to the 88%. These results encourage the continuation of the development and the testing of the method in order to support its practical application in casework.

Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Pose-based SLAM with probabilistic scan matching algorithm using a mechanical scanned imaging sonar

This paper proposes a pose-based algorithm to solve the full SLAM problem for an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV), navigating in an unknown and possibly unstructured environment. The technique incorporate probabilistic scan matching with range scans gathered from a mechanical scanning imaging sonar (MSIS) and the robot dead-reckoning displacements estimated from a Doppler velocity log (DVL) and a motion reference unit (MRU). The proposed method utilizes two extended Kalman filters (EKF). The first, estimates the local path travelled by the robot while grabbing the scan as well as its uncertainty and provides position estimates for correcting the distortions that the vehicle motion produces in the acoustic images. The second is an augment state EKF that estimates and keeps the registered scans poses. The raw data from the sensors are processed and fused in-line. No priory structural information or initial pose are considered. The algorithm has been tested on an AUV guided along a 600 m path within a marina environment, showing the viability of the proposed approach

Features extraction based on the Discrete Hartley Transform for closed contour

In this paper the authors propose a new closed contour descriptor that could be seen as a Feature Extractor of closed contours based on the Discrete Hartley Transform (DHT), its main characteristic is that uses only half of the coefficients required by Elliptical Fourier Descriptors (EFD) to obtain a contour approximation with similar error measure. The proposed closed contour descriptor provides an excellent capability of information compression useful for a great number of AI applications. Moreover it can provide scale, position and rotation invariance, and last but not least it has the advantage that both the parameterization and the reconstructed shape from the compressed set can be computed very efficiently by the fast Discrete Hartley Transform (DHT) algorithm. This Feature Extractor could be useful when the application claims for reversible features and when the user needs and easy measure of the quality for a given level of compression, scalable from low to very high quality.

Combined application of continuous wavelet transform-zero crossing technique in the simultaneous spectrophotometric determination of perindopril and indapamid in tablets

Signal processing methods based on the combined use of the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) and zero-crossing technique were applied to the simultaneous spectrophotometric determination of perindopril (PER) and indapamide (IND) in tablets. These signal processing methods do not require any priory separation step. Initially, various wavelet families were tested to identify the optimum signal processing giving the best recovery results. From this procedure, the Haar and Biorthogonal1.5 continuous wavelet transform (HAAR-CWT and BIOR1.5-CWT, respectively) were found suitable for the analysis of the related compounds. After transformation of the absorbance vectors by using HAAR-CWT and BIOR1.5-CWT, the CWT-coefficients were drawn as a graph versus wavelength and then the HAAR-CWT and BIOR1.5-CWT spectra were obtained. Calibration graphs for PER and IND were obtained by measuring the CWT amplitudes at 231.1 and 291.0 nm in the HAAR-CWT spectra and at 228.5 and 246.8 nm in BIOR1.5-CWT spectra, respectively. In order to compare the performance of HAAR-CWT and BIOR1.5-CWT approaches, derivative spectrophotometric (DS) method and HPLC as comparison methods, were applied to the PER-IND samples. In this DS method, first derivative absorbance values at 221.6 for PER and 282.7 nm for IND were used to obtain the calibration graphs. The validation of the CWT and DS signal processing methods was carried out by using the recovery study and standard addition technique. In the following step, these methods were successfully applied to the commercial tablets containing PER and IND compounds and good accuracy and precision were reported for the experimental results obtained by all proposed signal processing methods.

Fourier transform infrared-attenuated total reflectance (FTIR-ATR) spectroscopy and chemometric techniques for the determination of adulteration in petrodiesel/biodiesel blends

We propose an analytical method based on fourier transform infrared-attenuated total reflectance (FTIR-ATR) spectroscopy to detect the adulteration of petrodiesel and petrodiesel/palm biodiesel blends with African crude palm oil. The infrared spectral fingerprints from the sample analysis were used to perform principal components analysis (PCA) and to construct a prediction model using partial least squares (PLS) regression. The PCA results separated the samples into three groups, allowing identification of those subjected to adulteration with palm oil. The obtained model shows a good predictive capacity for determining the concentration of palm oil in petrodiesel/biodiesel blends. Advantages of the proposed method include cost-effectiveness and speed; it is also environmentally friendly.

Application of fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, chemical and chemometrics analyses to the characterization of agro-industrial waste

Agroindustrial waste in general presents significant levels of nutrients and organic matter and has therefore been frequently put to agricultural use. In this context, the objective of this study was to determine the chemical composition, nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, calcium, magnesium and carbon content, as well as the qualitative characteristics through Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy of four samples of poultry litter and one sample of cattle manure, from the southwestern region of Paraná, Brazil. Results revealed that, in general, the poultry litter presented higher amount of nutrients and carbon than the cattle manure. The infrared spectra allowed identification of the functional groups present and the differences in degree of sample humification. The statistical treatment confirmed the quantitative and qualitative differences revealed.

Probabilistic structure of an annual extreme rainfall series of a coastal area of the State of São Paulo, Brazil

This study aimed to describe the probabilistic structure of the annual series of extreme daily rainfall (Preabs), available from the weather station of Ubatuba, State of São Paulo, Brazil (1935-2009), by using the general distribution of extreme value (GEV). The autocorrelation function, the Mann-Kendall test, and the wavelet analysis were used in order to evaluate the presence of serial correlations, trends, and periodical components. Considering the results obtained using these three statistical methods, it was possible to assume the hypothesis that this temporal series is free from persistence, trends, and periodicals components. Based on quantitative and qualitative adhesion tests, it was found that the GEV may be used in order to quantify the probabilities of the Preabs data. The best results of GEV were obtained when the parameters of this function were estimated using the method of maximum likelihood. The method of L-moments has also shown satisfactory results.

The probabilistic risk analysis of external hazards of an interim storage for spent nuclear fuel

Tässä diplomityössä tehtiin Olkiluodon ydinvoimalaitoksella sijaitsevan käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen allasvarastointiin perustuvan välivaraston todennäköisyysperustainen ulkoisten uhkien riskianalyysi. Todennäköisyysperustainen riskianalyysi (PRA) on yleisesti käytetty riskien tunnistus- ja lähestymistapa ydinvoimalaitoksella. Työn tarkoituksena oli laatia täysin uusi ulkoisten uhkien PRA-analyysi, koska Suomessa ei ole aiemmin tehty vastaavanlaisia tämän tutkimusalueen riskitarkasteluja. Riskitarkastelun motiivina ovat myös maailmalla tapahtuneiden luonnonkatastrofien vuoksi korostunut ulkoisten uhkien rooli käytetyn ydinpolttoaineen välivarastoinnin turvallisuudessa. PRA analyysin rakenne pohjautui tutkimuksen alussa luotuun metodologiaan. Analyysi perustuu mahdollisten ulkoisten uhkien tunnistamiseen pois lukien ihmisen aikaansaamat tahalliset vahingot. Tunnistettujen ulkoisten uhkien esiintymistaajuuksien ja vahingoittamispotentiaalin perusteella ulkoiset uhat joko karsittiin pois tutkimuksessa määriteltyjen karsintakriteerien avulla tai analysoitiin tarkemmin. Tutkimustulosten perusteella voitiin todeta, että tiedot hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ovat epätäydellisiä. Suurinta osaa näistä hyvin harvoin tapahtuvista ulkoisista uhista ei ole koskaan esiintynyt eikä todennäköisesti koskaan tule esiintymään Olkiluodon vaikutusalueella tai edes Suomessa. Esimerkiksi salaman iskujen ja öljyaltistuksen roolit ja vaikutukset erilaisten komponenttien käytettävyyteen ovat epävarmasti tunnettuja. Tutkimuksen tuloksia voidaan pitää kokonaisuudessaan merkittävinä, koska niiden perusteella voidaan osoittaa ne ulkoiset uhat, joiden vaikutuksia olisi syytä tutkia tarkemmin. Yksityiskohtaisempi tietoisuus hyvin harvoin esiintyvistä ulkoisista uhista tarkentaisi alkutapahtumataajuuksien estimaatteja.

Probabilistic contact preferences in protein-ligand and protein-protein complexes

Modeller för intermolekulär växelvärkan utnyttjas brett inom biologin. Analys av kontakter mellan proteiner och läkemedelsforskning representerar typiska tillämpningsområden för dylika modeller. En modell som beskriver sådana molekylära växelverkningar kan utformas med hjälp av biofysisk teori, vilket tenderar att resultera i ytterst tung beräkningsbörda även för enkla tillämpningar. Ett alternativt sätt att formulera modeller är att utnyttja stora databaser som innehåller strukturmätningar gjorda med hjälp av till exempel röntgendiffraktion. Då man använder sig av empiriska mätdata direkt, möjliggör en statistisk modell att osäkerheten och inexaktheten i datat tas till hänsyn på ett adekvat sätt, samtidigt som beräkningsbördan håller sig på en rimligare nivå jämfört med kvantmekaniska metoder som i princip borde ge de optimala resultaten. I avhandlingen utvecklades en 3D modell för numerisk undersökning av intermolekulär växelverkan baserad på Bayesiansk statistik. Modellens syfte är att åstadkomma prognoser för det hurdana eller vilka molekylstrukturer prefereras i en given kontext, d.v.s. är mer sannolika inom ramen för interaktion. Modellen testades i essentiella molekyläromgivningar - en liten molekyl vid sin bindningsplats hos ett protein och en gränsyta mellan proteinerna i ett komplex. De erhållna numeriska resultaten motsvarar väl experimentella resultat som tidigare rapporterats i litteraturen, exempelvis kvalitativa bindningsaffiniteter och kemisk kännedom av vissa aminosyrors rumsliga förmågor att utgöra bindningar. I avhandlingen gjordes ytterligare preliminära tester av den statistiska ansatsen för modellering av den centrala molekylära strukturella anpassningsbarheten. I praktiken är den utvecklade modellen ämnad som ett led i en mer omfattande analysmetod, så som en s.k. farmakofor modell. Molekyylivuorovaikutusten mallintamista hyödynnetään laajasti biologisten kysymysten tarkastelussa. Tyypillisiä esimerkkejä sovelluskohteista ovat proteiinien väliset kontaktit ja lääkesuunnittelu. Vuorovaikutuksia kuvaavan mallin lähtökohta voi olla molekyyleihin liittyvä teoria, jolloin soveltamiseen liittyvä laskenta saattaa olla erityisen raskasta, tai suuri havaintojoukko joka on saatu aikaan esimerkiksi mittaamalla rakenteita röntgendiffraktio menetelmällä. Tilastollinen malli mahdollistaa havaintoaineistossa olevan epätarkkuuden ja epävarmuuden huomioimisen, samalla pitäen laskennallisen kuorman pienempänä verrattuna periaatteessa parhaan tuloksen antavaan kvanttimekaaniseen mallinnukseen. Väitöstyössä kehitettiin bayesiläiseen tilastotieteeseen perustuva 3D malli molekyylien välisten vuorovaikutusten laskennalliseen tarkasteluun. Mallin tehtävä on tuottaa ennusteita sen suhteen, minkä tai millaisten molekyylirakenteiden väliset kompleksit ovat etusijalla, toisin sanoen todennäköisempiä, vuorovaikutustilanteessa. Työssä kehitetyn menetelmän toimivuutta testattiin käyttötarkoituksen suhteen olennaisissa molekyyliympäristöissä - pieni molekyyli sitoutumiskohdassaan proteiinissa sekä rajapinta kahden proteiinin välilllä proteiinikompleksissa. Saadut laskennalliset tulokset vastasivat hyvin vertailuun käytettyjä kirjallisuudesta saatuja kokeellisia tuloksia, kuten laadullisia sitoutumisaffiniteetteja, sekä kemiallista tietoa esimerkiksi tiettyjen aminohappojen avaruudellisesta sidoksenmuodostuksesta. Väitöstyössä myös alustavasti testattiin tilastollista lähestymistapaa tärkeän molekyylien rakenteellisen mukautuvuuden mallintamiseen. Käytännössä malli on tarkoitettu osaksi jotakin laajempaa analyysimenetelmää, kuten farmakoforimallia.

Probabilistic position and orientation estimation of rigid objects using an RGB-D sensor

The recent emergence of low-cost RGB-D sensors has brought new opportunities for robotics by providing affordable devices that can provide synchronized images with both color and depth information. In this thesis, recent work on pose estimation utilizing RGBD sensors is reviewed. Also, a pose recognition system for rigid objects using RGB-D data is implemented. The implementation uses half-edge primitives extracted from the RGB-D images for pose estimation. The system is based on the probabilistic object representation framework by Detry et al., which utilizes Nonparametric Belief Propagation for pose inference. Experiments are performed on household objects to evaluate the performance and robustness of the system.

Critical analysis of autoregressive and fast Fourier transform markers of cardiovascular variability in rats and humans

The autonomic nervous system plays an important role in physiological and pathological conditions, and has been extensively evaluated by parametric and non-parametric spectral analysis. To compare the results obtained with fast Fourier transform (FFT) and the autoregressive (AR) method, we performed a comprehensive comparative study using data from humans and rats during pharmacological blockade (in rats), a postural test (in humans), and in the hypertensive state (in both humans and rats). Although postural hypotension in humans induced an increase in normalized low-frequency (LFnu) of systolic blood pressure, the increase in the ratio was detected only by AR. In rats, AR and FFT analysis did not agree for LFnu and high frequency (HFnu) under basal conditions and after vagal blockade. The increase in the LF/HF ratio of the pulse interval, induced by methylatropine, was detected only by FFT. In hypertensive patients, changes in LF and HF for systolic blood pressure were observed only by AR; FFT was able to detect the reduction in both blood pressure variance and total power. In hypertensive rats, AR presented different values of variance and total power for systolic blood pressure. Moreover, AR and FFT presented discordant results for LF, LFnu, HF, LF/HF ratio, and total power for pulse interval. We provide evidence for disagreement in 23% of the indices of blood pressure and heart rate variability in humans and 67% discordance in rats when these variables are evaluated by AR and FFT under physiological and pathological conditions. The overall disagreement between AR and FFT in this study was 43%.