Predictors of endocarditis in isolates from cultures of blood following dental extractions in rats with periodontal disease.

Rats with periodontitis and catheter-induced aortic valve vegetations underwent dental extractions. Cultures of blood obtained 1 min later showed polymicrobial bacteremia in 19 of 19 rats, mostly due to viridans streptococci (18 of 19), Morganella (15 of 19), group G streptococci (13 of 19), and Staphylococcus aureus (10 of 19). Viridans streptococci circulated in higher numbers than did group G streptococci and S. aureus (P less than .01). Three days after dental extractions, 18 of 20 rats had endocarditis. Fifteen (83%) of 18 infections were due to group G streptococci, 9 (50%) of 18 were due to S. aureus, and 2 (11%) of 18 were due to viridans streptococci (P less than .05). In vitro, adherence to platelet-fibrin matrices of endocarditis strain 8 of group G streptococcus was two times greater than that of endocarditis strain S. aureus 23 and three to four times greater than that of Streptococcus sanguis 44 and Morganella morganii 93 (P less than 10(-5)). The inoculum size that produced endocarditis in 90% of rats after iv challenge was 10(5) cfu for group G streptococcus strain 8 and 10(7) for S. sanguis 44.

Recurrence of status epilepticus: Prognostic role and outcome predictors.

OBJECTIVE: Predictors of morbidity and mortality after status epilepticus (SE) have been studied extensively in hospital- and population-based cohorts. However, little attention has been directed toward SE recurrence after an incident episode. We investigated clinical and demographic characteristics of patients presenting SE recurrence and its specific prognostic role. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we screened our prospective registry of consecutive adults with SE between April 2006 and February 2014. Demographic and clinical data were compared between incident and recurrent SE episodes; risk of SE recurrence was assessed through survival analysis, and the prognostic role of SE recurrence with multivariable logistic regressions. RESULTS: Of the incident cohort (509 patients), 68 (13%) experienced recurrent SE. The cumulative recurrence rate over 4 years was 32%. Recurrence risk was significantly reduced after an acute SE etiology (hazard ratio [HR] 0.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.82; p = 0.005), and was borderline increased in women (HR 1.59, 95% CI 0.97-2.65; p = 0.06). Although recurrent SE episodes showed lower morbidity and mortality, prognosis was independently related to Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and potentially fatal etiology, but not to SE recurrence. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides class III evidence that SE recurrence involves a significant proportion of patients, and that recurrence risk is independently associated with chronic etiology and to a lesser extent with female gender. However, contrary to underlying cause and SE severity, SE recurrence per se does not independently correlate with outcome. Early identification of patients at higher risk of SE recurrence may influence their management during follow-up.

Clinical predictors for Legionella in patients presenting with community-acquired pneumonia to the emergency department.

BACKGROUND: Legionella species cause severe forms of pneumonia with high mortality and complication rates. Accurate clinical predictors to assess the likelihood of Legionella community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in patients presenting to the emergency department are lacking. METHODS: We retrospectively compared clinical and laboratory data of 82 consecutive patients with Legionella CAP with 368 consecutive patients with non-Legionella CAP included in two studies at the same institution. RESULTS: In multivariate logistic regression analysis we identified six parameters, namely high body temperature (OR 1.67, p < 0.0001), absence of sputum production (OR 3.67, p < 0.0001), low serum sodium concentrations (OR 0.89, p = 0.011), high levels of lactate dehydrogenase (OR 1.003, p = 0.007) and C-reactive protein (OR 1.006, p < 0.0001) and low platelet counts (OR 0.991, p < 0.0001), as independent predictors of Legionella CAP. Using optimal cut off values of these six parameters, we calculated a diagnostic score for Legionella CAP. The median score was significantly higher in Legionella CAP as compared to patients without Legionella (4 (IQR 3-4) vs 2 (IQR 1-2), p < 0.0001) with a respective odds ratio of 3.34 (95%CI 2.57-4.33, p < 0.0001). Receiver operating characteristics showed a high diagnostic accuracy of this diagnostic score (AUC 0.86 (95%CI 0.81-0.90), which was better as compared to each parameter alone. Of the 191 patients (42%) with a score of 0 or 1 point, only 3% had Legionella pneumonia. Conversely, of the 73 patients (16%) with > or =4 points, 66% of patients had Legionella CAP. CONCLUSION: Six clinical and laboratory parameters embedded in a simple diagnostic score accurately identified patients with Legionella CAP. If validated in future studies, this score might aid in the management of suspected Legionella CAP.

Very high-resolution environmental predictors in species distribution models: moving beyond topography?

Recent advances in remote sensing technologies have facilitated the generation of very high resolution (VHR) environmental data. Exploratory studies suggested that, if used in species distribution models (SDMs), these data should enable modelling species' micro-habitats and allow improving predictions for fine-scale biodiversity management. In the present study, we tested the influence, in SDMs, of predictors derived from a VHR digital elevation model (DEM) by comparing the predictive power of models for 239 plant species and their assemblages fitted at six different resolutions in the Swiss Alps. We also tested whether changes of the model quality for a species is related to its functional and ecological characteristics. Refining the resolution only contributed to slight improvement of the models for more than half of the examined species, with the best results obtained at 5 m, but no significant improvement was observed, on average, across all species. Contrary to our expectations, we could not consistently correlate the changes in model performance with species characteristics such as vegetation height. Temperature, the most important variable in the SDMs across the different resolutions, did not contribute any substantial improvement. Our results suggest that improving resolution of topographic data only is not sufficient to improve SDM predictions - and therefore local management - compared to previously used resolutions (here 25 and 100 m). More effort should be dedicated now to conduct finer-scale in-situ environmental measurements (e.g. for temperature, moisture, snow) to obtain improved environmental measurements for fine-scale species mapping and management.

Prevalence, predictors, and consequences of long-term refusal of antipsychotic treatment in first-episode psychosis.

OBJECTIVE: Studies investigating medication adherence in psychosis are limited by the need of a certain degree of medication adherence and the inclusion of mostly multiple-episode patients. By contrast, noninformed consent, epidemiological studies in first-episode psychosis (FEP) allow the assessment of an important subgroup of patients who persistently refuse antipsychotic medication and thereby never receive an adequate antipsychotic trial. The present study aims to assess the prevalence and predictors of such a "medication refusal" subgroup and its association with illness outcome. METHODS: The present file audit study assessed medication adherence in an epidemiological cohort of 605 FEP patients who were treated within the Early Psychosis Prevention and Intervention Centre for up to 18 months. Medication adherence was categorized into full adherence, nonadherence, and persistent medication refusal. Predictors were analyzed using logistic regression models. RESULTS: During the 18-month treatment period, 204 patients (33.7%) were fully adherent, 287 (47.4%) displayed at least 1 phase of nonadherence, and 114 patients (18.8%) were persistent medication refusers. Poor premorbid functioning, comorbid substance use, and poor insight predicted both medication refusal and nonadherence; a forensic history and no previous contact to psychiatric care were specifically predictive of medication refusal. With respect to illness outcome, nonadherent patients were worse off when compared with fully adherent patients, and medication refusers were even worse off compared with nonadherent patients. CONCLUSIONS: Within a nonselected epidemiological FEP cohort, almost 20% of patients are persistent medication refusers. The found predictors may help to identify the individual risk of persistent medication refusal and may enable an early (preventive) treatment adaptation.

Metabolic predictors of obesity. Contribution of resting energy expenditure, thermic effect of food, and fuel utilization to four-year weight gain of post-obese and never-obese women.

This prospective study was designed to identify abnormalities of energy expenditure and fuel utilization which distinguish post-obese women from never-obese controls. 24 moderately obese, postmenopausal, nondiabetic women with a familial predisposition to obesity underwent assessments of body composition, fasting and postprandial energy expenditure, and fuel utilization in the obese state and after weight loss (mean 12.9 kg) to a post-obese, normal-weight state. The post-obese women were compared with 24 never-obese women of comparable age and body composition. Four years later, without intervention, body weight was reassessed in both groups. Results indicated that all parameters measured in the post-obese women were similar to the never-obese controls: mean resting energy expenditure, thermic effect of food, and fasting and postprandial substrate oxidation and insulin-glucose patterns. Four years later, post-obese women regained a mean of 10.9 kg while control subjects remained lean (mean gain 1.7 kg) (P < 0.001 between groups). Neither energy expenditure nor fuel oxidation correlated with 4-yr weight changes, whereas self-reported physical inactivity was associated with greater weight regain. The data suggest that weight gain in obesity-prone women may be due to maladaptive responses to the environment, such as physical inactivity or excess energy intake, rather than to reduced energy requirements.

Stressful life events and neuroticism as predictors of late-life versus early-life depression.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of depression in younger adults is related to the combination of long-standing factors such as personality traits (neuroticism) and more acute factors such as the subjective impact of stressful life events. Whether an increase in physical illnesses changes these associations in old age depression remains a matter of debate. METHODS: We compared 79 outpatients with major depression and 102 never-depressed controls; subjects included both young (mean age: 35 years) and older (mean age: 70 years) adults. Assessments included the Social Readjustment Rating Scale, NEO Personality Inventory and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale. Logistic regression models analyzed the association between depression and subjective impact of stressful life events while controlling for neuroticism and physical illness. RESULTS: Patients and controls experienced the same number of stressful life events in the past 12 months. However, in contrast to the controls, patients associated the events with a subjective negative emotional impact. Negative stress impact and levels of neuroticism, but not physical illness, significantly predicted depression in young age. In old age, negative stress impact was weakly associated with depression. In this age group, depressive illness was also determined by physical illness burden and neuroticism. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that the subjective impact of life stressors, although rated as of the same magnitude, plays a less important role in accounting for depression in older age compared to young age. They also indicate an increasing weight of physical illness burden in the prediction of depression occurrence in old age.

Predictors of physiotherapy and occupational therapy use two years after a vocational rehabilitation for orthopaedic trauma

Introduction.- Health care utilization is an important field of our economy. Nevertheless a minority of cases induce the majority of costs. For instance, in the setting of accident insurance, the most expensive 5% of all injured cases involve 80% of the health care costs. Although physiotherapy and occupational therapy consist of only a small proportion of these costs, it is nevertheless important to evaluate the factors that predict its use in order to improve services (i.e. allocation of resources to those who need them and benefit most).Patients and methods.- In this longitudinal prospective study, the cohort consisted of 2156 consecutively included patients with orthopaedic problems attending the clinique Romande de réadaptation (CRR) at Sion for inpatient rehabilitation after a work, traffic or leisure related injury. Two years after discharge, a questionnaire regarding the use of different health cares was send to the patients (1502 patients returned their questionnaires). The aim of this study was to calculate, with a logistic multivariate model, in-patient hospitalized for orthopaedic problems, the variables that mostly predict physiotherapy use 2 years after discharge.Results.- The full multivariate model contains 46 predictors. The use of physiotherapy and occupational therapy was significantly predicted in this multivariate model by the following predictors: Patients with a spinal problem (OR 1.51 versus lower-extremity problem, 95% CI 1.01 to 2.27), a disability pension (OR 1.69, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.60), patients with sports activities (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.94), patients with longer stay at the rehabilitation clinic (OR 1.22 per week, 95% CI 1.05 to 1.41), women (OR 1.64, 95% CI 1.09 to 2.48) and those consulting a psychiatrist (OR 1.66, 95% CI 1.06 to 2.60).Discussion.- In this prospective study with a 2-year follow-up, different factors predicted the use of physiotherapy and occupational therapy after an injury. Further studies are needed to clarify the impact of these factors for the health care utilization and the strategies, which would allow to improve allocation of available resources.

Keeping the Vermin Out: Perceived Disease Threat and Ideological Orientations as Predictors of Exclusionary Immigration Attitudes

Integrating evolutionary and social representations theories, the current study examines the relationship between perceived disease threat and exclusionary immigration attitudes in the context of a potential avian influenza pandemic. This large-scale disease provides a realistic context for investigating the link between disease threat and immigration attitudes. The main aim of this cross-sectional study (N=412) was to explore mechanisms through which perceived chronic and contextual disease threats operate on immigration attitudes. Structural equation models show that the relationship between chronic disease threat (germ aversion) and exclusionary immigration attitudes (assimiliationist immigration criteria, health-based immigration criteria and desire to reduce the proportion of foreigners) was mediated by ideological and normative beliefs (social dominance orientation, belief in a dangerous world), but not by contextual disease threat (appraisal of avian influenza pandemic threat). Contextual disease threat only predicted support for health-based immigration criteria. The conditions under which real-life disease threats influence intergroup attitudes are scrutinized. Convergence and dissimilarity of evolutionary and social representational approaches in accounting for the link between disease threat and immigration attitudes are discussed.

Effects of alternative sets of climatic predictors on species distribution models and associated estimates of extinction risk: a test with plants in an arid environment

Aim To evaluate the effects of using distinct alternative sets of climatic predictor variables on the performance, spatial predictions and future projections of species distribution models (SDMs) for rare plants in an arid environment. . Location Atacama and Peruvian Deserts, South America (18º30'S - 31º30'S, 0 - 3 000 m) Methods We modelled the present and future potential distributions of 13 species of Heliotropium sect. Cochranea, a plant group with a centre of diversity in the Atacama Desert. We developed and applied a sequential procedure, starting from climate monthly variables, to derive six alternative sets of climatic predictor variables. We used them to fit models with eight modelling techniques within an ensemble forecasting framework, and derived climate change projections for each of them. We evaluated the effects of using these alternative sets of predictor variables on performance, spatial predictions and projections of SDMs using Generalised Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Results The use of distinct sets of climatic predictor variables did not have a significant effect on overall metrics of model performance, but had significant effects on present and future spatial predictions. Main conclusion Using different sets of climatic predictors can yield the same model fits but different spatial predictions of current and future species distributions. This represents a new form of uncertainty in model-based estimates of extinction risk that may need to be better acknowledged and quantified in future SDM studies.

Demographic and clinical predictors of leptomeningeal collaterals in stroke patients.

BACKGROUND: Leptomeningeal collaterals improve outcome after stroke, including reduction of hemorrhagic complications after thrombolytic or endovascular therapy, smaller infarct size, and reduction in symptoms at follow-up evaluation. The purpose of this study was to determine the demographic and clinical variables that are associated with a greater degree of cerebral collaterals. METHODS: Clinical data of patients presenting with M1 occlusions of the middle cerebral artery (MCA) and associated computed tomography angiography studies after admission from 3 separate institutions were retrospectively compiled (n = 82). Occluded hemispheres were evaluated against the intact hemisphere for degree of collateralization in the MCA territory. Regression analysis of variance was conducted between clinical variables and collateral score to determine which variables associate with greater collateral development. RESULTS: Smaller infarct size corresponded to greater collateral scores, whereas older age and statin use corresponded to lower collateral scores (P < .001). CONCLUSIONS: Cerebral collateralization is influenced by age and statin use and influences infarct size.

Predictors of functional recovery in patients admitted to geriatric postacute rehabilitation.

OBJECTIVE: To examine characteristics associated with functional recovery in older patients undergoing postacute rehabilitation. DESIGN: Observational study. SETTING: Postacute rehabilitation facility. PARTICIPANTS: Patients (N=2754) aged ≥65 years admitted over a 4-year period. INTERVENTIONS: Not applicable. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Functional status was assessed at admission and again at discharge. Functional recovery was defined as achieving at least 30% improvement on the Barthel Index score from admission compared with the maximum possible room for improvement. RESULTS: Patients who achieved functional recovery (70.3%) were younger and were more likely to be women, live alone, and be without any formal home care before admission, and they had fewer chronic diseases (all P<.01). They also had better cognitive status and a higher Barthel Index score both at admission (mean ± SD, 63.3±18.0 vs 59.6±24.7) and at discharge (mean ± SD, 86.8±10.4 vs 62.2±22.9) (all P<.001). In multivariate analysis, patients <75 years of age (adjusted odds ratio [OR]=1.51; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16-1.98; P=.003), women (adjusted OR=1.24; 95% CI, 1.01-1.52; P=.045), patients living alone (adjusted OR=1.61; 95% CI, 1.31-1.98; P<.001), and patients without in-home help prior to admission (adjusted OR=1.39; 95% CI, 1.15-1.69; P=.001) remained at increased odds of functional recovery. In addition, compared with those with moderate-to-severe cognitive impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination score <18), patients with mild-to-moderate impairment (Mini-Mental State Examination score 19-23) and those cognitively intact also had increased odds of functional recovery (adjusted OR=1.56; 95% CI, 1.13-2.15; P=.007; adjusted OR=2.21; 95% CI, 1.67-2.93; P<.001, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Apart from sociodemographic characteristics, cognition is the strongest factor that identifies older patients more likely to improve during postacute rehabilitation. Further study needs to determine how to best adapt rehabilitation processes to better meet the specific needs of this population and optimize their outcome.

Nationalism and patriotism as predictors of immigration attitudes in Switzerland: A municipality-level analysis

Using Swiss data from the 2003 International Social Survey Programme (N = 902), this multilevel study combined individual and municipality levels of analysis in the explanation of nationalism, patriotism and exclusionary immigration attitudes. On the individual level, the results show that in line with previous research nationalism (uncritical and blind attachment to the nation) increased exclusionary immigration attitudes, while patriotism (pride in national democratic institutions) was related to greater tolerance towards immigration. On the municipality level, urbanization, socioeconomic status and immigrant proportion (and their interaction effects) were found to affect nationalism, patriotism and immigration attitudes. Nationalist and patriotic forms of national attachment were stronger in German-speaking municipalities than in the French-speaking municipalities. Path analyses further revealed that living in a Swiss-German municipality indirectly led to more negative immigration attitudes through an increase in nationalism. The research is discussed in light of social psychological and political science literature on political attitudes.