A randomised controlled clinical trial of a post-discharge, nurse-led educational intervention to reduce anxiety and enhance self-efficacy in percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) patients within the first week post-discharge: A pilot study

This research investigated the efficacy of a post-discharge nurse-led clinic, for patients who underwent a cardiovascular interventional procedure in Australia. A randomised controlled clinical trial measured the effects of the clinic on patient confidence to self-manage and minimise psychological distress given the strong link between anxiety, depression and coronary heart disease. Hospitalisation for the procedure is short and stressful, and patients may wait up to 7-64 days for post-discharge review. This study provides preliminary quantitative and qualitative evidence that nurse-led clinics undertaken within the first week post-percutaneous coronary intervention may fill a much-needed gap for patients during a potentially vulnerable period.

Design a simulated multimedia enriched immersive learning environment (SMILE) for nursing care of dementia patient

This thesis is to establish a framework to guide the development of a simulated, multimedia-enriched, immersive, learning environment (SMILE) framework. This framework models essential media components used to describe a scenario applied in healthcare (in a dementia context), demonstrates interactions between the components, and enables scalability of simulation implementation. The thesis outcomes also include a simulation system developed in accordance with the guidance framework and a preliminary evaluation through a user study involving ten nursing students and practicioners. The results show that the proposed framework is feasible and effective for designing a simulation system in dementia healthcare training.

Patient doses in ct, dental cone beam ct and projection radiography in Finland, with emphasis on paediatric patients

Diagnostic radiology represents the largest man-made contribution to population radiation doses in Europe. To be able to keep the diagnostic benefit versus radiation risk ratio as high as possible, it is important to understand the quantitative relationship between the patient radiation dose and the various factors which affect the dose, such as the scan parameters, scan mode, and patient size. Paediatric patients have a higher probability for late radiation effects, since longer life expectancy is combined with the higher radiation sensitivity of the developing organs. The experience with particular paediatric examinations may be very limited and paediatric acquisition protocols may not be optimised. The purpose of this thesis was to enhance and compare different dosimetric protocols, to promote the establishment of the paediatric diagnostic reference levels (DRLs), and to provide new data on patient doses for optimisation purposes in computed tomography (with new applications for dental imaging) and in paediatric radiography. Large variations in radiation exposure in paediatric skull, sinus, chest, pelvic and abdominal radiography examinations were discovered in patient dose surveys. There were variations between different hospitals and examination rooms, between different sized patients, and between imaging techniques; emphasising the need for harmonisation of the examination protocols. For computed tomography, a correction coefficient, which takes individual patient size into account in patient dosimetry, was created. The presented patient size correction method can be used for both adult and paediatric purposes. Dental cone beam CT scanners provided adequate image quality for dentomaxillofacial examinations while delivering considerably smaller effective doses to patient compared to the multi slice CT. However, large dose differences between cone beam CT scanners were not explained by differences in image quality, which indicated the lack of optimisation. For paediatric radiography, a graphical method was created for setting the diagnostic reference levels in chest examinations, and the DRLs were given as a function of patient projection thickness. Paediatric DRLs were also given for sinus radiography. The detailed information about the patient data, exposure parameters and procedures provided tools for reducing the patient doses in paediatric radiography. The mean tissue doses presented for paediatric radiography enabled future risk assessments to be done. The calculated effective doses can be used for comparing different diagnostic procedures, as well as for comparing the use of similar technologies and procedures in different hospitals and countries.

Impact of depressive symptoms on subjective well-being: the importance of patient-reported outcomes in schizophrenia

Objective: The subjective experience of psychotic patients toward treatment is a key factor in medication adherence, quality of life, and clinical outcome. The aim of this study was to assess the subjective well-being in patients with schizophrenia and to examine its relationship with the presence and severity of depressive symptoms. Methods: A multicenter, cross-sectional study was conducted with clinically stable outpatients diagnosed with schizophrenia. The Subjective Well-Being under Neuroleptic Scale - short version (SWN-K) and the Calgary Depression Scale for Schizophrenia (CDSS) were used to gather information on well-being and the presence and severity of depressive symptoms, respectively. Spearman's rank correlation was used to assess the associations between the SWN-K total score, its five subscales, and the CDSS total score. Discriminative validity was evaluated against that criterion by analysing the area under the curve (AUC). Results: Ninety-seven patients were included in the study. Mean age was 35 years (standard deviation = 10) and 72% were male. Both the total SWN-K scale and its five subscales correlated inversely and significantly with the CDSS total score (P < 0.0001). The highest correlation was observed for the total SWN-K (Spearman's rank order correlation [ rho] = -0.59), being the other correlations: mental functioning (-0.47), social integration (-0.46), emotional regulation (-0.51), physical functioning (-0.48), and self-control (-0.41). A total of 33 patients (34%) were classified as depressed. Total SWN-K showed the highest AUC when discriminating between depressive severity levels (0.84), followed by emotional regulation (0.80), social integration (0.78), physical functioning and self-control (0.77), and mental functioning (0.73). Total SWN-K and its five subscales showed a significant linear trend against CDSS severity levels (P < 0.001). Conclusion: The presence of moderate to severe depressive symptoms was relatively high, and correlated inversely with patients' subjective well-being. Routine assessment of patient-reported measures in patients with schizophrenia might reduce potential discrepancy between patient and physician assessment, increase therapeutic alliance, and improve outcome.

Práticas do enfermeiro no Programa de HIV/AIDS nos Centros Municipais de Saúde no município do Rio de Janeiro

Trata-se de uma pesquisa de mestrado do Programa de Pós-Graduação da Faculdade de Enfermagem da Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro. Teve como objetivo geral compreender e analisar as práticas do enfermeiro na assistência à saúde no Programa HIV/AIDS nos Centros Municipais de Saúde do Rio de Janeiro a partir do princípio da integralidade. Buscou-se a compreensão da prática do enfermeiro, pois devido à complexidade da epidemia, o paciente requer assistência que estabeleça qualidade de vida. Neste sentido, explorou-se o conceito de integralidade como embasamento para as ações em saúde nos diversos níveis de assistência em especial na atenção básica. O enfermeiro diante de uma perspectiva de integralidade quer no manejo clinico do portador, quer na prevenção da disseminação da doença nos diversos grupos populacionais, deve buscar uma prática profissional com vistas a priorizar as necessidades de saúde dos usuários. Trata-se de um estudo de natureza qualitativa, sendo esta abordagem a que possibilita a compreensão dos fenômenos e das ações humanas no que se refere à prática. A pesquisa foi desenvolvida no período 2008 a 2009, sendo o trabalho de campo desenvolvido através de observação livre e entrevistas semi-estruturadas. Os sujeitos consistiram de 12 enfermeiros que trabalham nos CMS no Programa HIV/AIDS. Os dados foram analisados visando buscar eixos temáticos a fim de transparecer as práticas e seus contextos, utilizando também os registros da observação livre. Através da análise temática emergiram duas categorias: O cotidiano da assistência no programa HIV/AIDS e a Prática do enfermeiro no programa HIV/AIDS, as quais deram origem a cinco subcategorias descritas a seguir: O cotidiano dos CMS e a organização da assistência voltada para o HIV/AIDS; Limitações político-institucionais que dificultam as ações de enfermagem no programa HIV/AIDS; A relação da equipe de saúde e o processo de trabalho no programa HIV/AIDS; Bases teóricas que orientam a prática do enfermeiro em HIV/AIDS nos CMS; e Modelos de atenção à saúde e a realidade vivenciada no programa HIV/AIDS. Podemos constatar que os serviços que atendem HIV/AIDS são estruturados basicamente com a presença dos profissionais de saúde e na estrutura física disponível para a assistência. Este fato influencia a chegada do paciente ao serviço e sua forma de atendimento. Constatou-se que a falta de estrutura física prejudica a percepção das necessidades de saúde do grupo populacional assistido, mas também isto nos remete a falta de preparo do profissional. Há muita dificuldade em articular o conhecimento teórico com a prática diária, isto é, com suas atividades de rotina. Neste caso, o enfermeiro busca, a partir das ações que são postas no dia-a-dia, superar essa indefinição na tentativa de dar respostas aos problemas de saúde que lhes são direcionados. Concluímos que há necessidade de condições mais específicas para o desenvolvimento de ações que possibilitem a visualização das necessidades de saúde desta clientela para que possa desenvolver a integralidade de forma consistente nos CMS do Rio de Janeiro.

As relações interpessoais no cuidar do cliente em espaço onco-hematológico: uma contribuição do enfermeiro

Durante minha trajetória profissional experenciando o cuidar de clientes portadores de doença onco-hematológica percebi a luta destes seres humanos pela vida e como a relação enfermeiro-cliente era vital para a realização do cuidado. O enfermeiro interage grande parte do tempo com esta clientela a qual percorre uma trajetória de re-internações e longos períodos de tratamento. Nesse sentido, entendendo que a relação interpessoal como uma condição importante para que o enfermeiro compreenda o outro em sua totalidade e preste um cuidado singular, delimitei como objeto de estudo as relações interpessoais do enfermeiro na ação de cuidar do cliente internado para tratamento onco-hematológico. Para tanto, o objetivo foi compreender o significado das relações interpessoais na ação de cuidar do enfermeiro junto ao cliente internado para tratamento onco-hematlógico. Trata-se de estudo de natureza qualitativa, cujo referencial teórico pautou-se nas concepções da fenomenologia sociológica de Alfred Schutz. O cenário de realização do estudo foi a enfermaria de Hematologia de um Hospital Universitário Federal do estado do Rio de Janeiro e os sujeitos foram todos os seis enfermeiros lotados nessa unidade. Antes da etapa de campo e em cumprimento aos princípios éticos da Resolução 196/96 do CNS que trata da pesquisa com seres humanos, o projeto foi submetido ao Comitê de Ética dessa instituição cenário do estudo, sendo aprovado com o Parecer n 092/11. A captação das falas deu-se por meio de entrevista com a utilização das seguintes questões orientadoras: fale para mim sobre as ações que você desenvolve junto ao cliente internado para tratamento onco-hematológico; o que significam as relações interpessoais na ação de cuidar do cliente internado para tratamento onco-hematológico?; e o que você faz para que esta relação aconteça? A análise compreensiva das falas possibilitou a apreensão das categorias: cuidar através de procedimentos técnicos e científicos, orientando para o enfrentamento da doença e atender o paciente na perspectiva de suas necessidades estabelecendo a relação interpessoal entre enfermeiro e o cliente. O enfermeiro descreve as ações desenvolvidas junto ao cliente em tratamento onco-hematológico como um fazer técnico, rico em procedimentos, que tem em vista apoiar o cliente para enfrentar o tratamento difícil de uma doença grave, a partir de suas necessidades, estabelecendo uma relação íntima, transparente e forte, ocorrendo de forma espontânea e natural. Para estabelecer esta relação os enfermeiros utilizam estratégias como: a empatia, a brincadeira, o carinho, a confiança e a disponibilidade para promover o cuidado de enfermagem. As relações interpessoais se mostraram inerentes à ação de cuidar desse enfermeiro, ator social da equipe de saúde, o qual possui a disponibilidade para interagir com o cliente, transcendendo o aspecto tecnicista, fazendo parte de sua identidade profissional o constituinte relacional.

Vulnerabilidade de enfermeiros no cuidado a pacientes com HIV/Aids: um estudo de representações sociais

Vulnerabilidade e empoderamento apresentam-se como elementos presentes na vida profissional e pessoal dos enfermeiros. Delimitou-se como objeto de estudo as representações sociais elaboradas por enfermeiros que cuidam de pacientes com HIV/Aids acerca de sua vulnerabilidade no contexto do cuidar em enfermagem. O objetivo geral foi analisar as representações sociais construídas por enfermeiros acerca de sua vulnerabilidade no contexto do cuidado que exercem. Trata-se de pesquisa qualitativa, descritiva e exploratória, orientada pelo referencial teórico-metodológico das Representações Sociais em sua abordagem processual. Participaram do estudo trinta enfermeiros de um hospital público municipal do Rio de Janeiro. Como técnicas de coleta de dados foram utilizados o questionário sociodemográfico e a entrevista semiestruturada em profundidade. Como técnica de análise de dados adotou-se a análise de conteúdo temático-categorial proposta por Bardin, sistematizada por Oliveira e operacionalizada pelo software QSR NVivo 9.0. Entre os sujeitos, há predomínio do gênero feminino, da faixa etária de 41 a 45 anos, da realização de pós-graduação lato sensu e de tempo de atuação mínimo de 16 anos em HIV/Aids. Sete categorias emergiram na segmentação do material discursivo: 1) O acesso a informações, a formação profissional e o desenvolvimento da naturalização da aids através da experiência: elementos de vulnerabilidade e de empoderamento; 2) A instituição hospitalar e sua infraestrutura como polo de vulnerabilidade e de empoderamento nas construções simbólicas de enfermeiros que cuidam de pacientes com HIV/Aids; 3) Entre o risco e a prevenção: a vulnerabilidade e o empoderamento no contexto dos acidentes ocupacionais biológicos e as práticas preventivas adotadas por enfermeiros frente ao HIV/Aids no cotidiano hospitalar; 4) Relações interpessoais entre enfermeiro e paciente soropositivo para o HIV enquanto mediadoras da vulnerabilidade e do empoderamento de ambos; 5) As limitações psíquicas enfrentadas por enfermeiros no vivenciar do trabalho junto a portadores do HIV/Aids; 6) A busca pela espiritualidade e pela religiosidade como bases de apoio para a vida profissional contextualizada na aids; e 7) O HIV e a aids no contexto de diferentes modalidades de relacionamento: a presença do risco como elemento organizador da discursividade. Na vida profissional, as representações sociais da vulnerabilidade são compostas pela fragilidade, pelo risco e pela dificuldade. O empoderamento, por sua vez, emerge sustentado por um tripéformado pela proteção, suporte e satisfação como elementosdo bem-estar. Na vida pessoal, o risco possui centralidade nas representações. Já o empoderamento se mostra oriundo do bem-estar e da proteção. Conclui-se que a reconstrução sociocognitiva da vulnerabilidade e do empoderamento permitiu o acesso ao arsenal simbólico do qual o grupo dispõe para a superação do que o ameaça. Vulnerabilidade e empoderamento são, portanto, diversificados e mutáveis em suas bases e produtos e, em movimentos de balanço e contrabalanço, corporificam a díade vulnerabilidade-empoderamento.

Unity in diversity: electronic patient record use in multidisciplinary practice

In this paper we examine the use of electronic patient records (EPR) by clinical specialists in their development of multidisciplinary care for diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer. We develop a practice theory lens to investigate EPR use across multidisciplinary team practice. Our findings suggest that there are oppositional tendencies towards diversity in EPR use and unity which emerges across multidisciplinary work, and this influences the outcomes of EPR use. The value of this perspective is illustrated through the analysis of a year-long, longitudinal case study of a multidisciplinary team of surgeons, oncologists, pathologists, radiologists, and nurse specialists adopting a new EPR. Each group adapted their use of the EPR to their diverse specialist practices, but they nonetheless orientated their use of the EPR to each others' practices sufficiently to support unity in multidisciplinary teamwork. Multidisciplinary practice elements were also reconfigured in an episode of explicit negotiations, resulting in significant changes in EPR use within team meetings. Our study contributes to the growing literature that questions the feasibility and necessity of achieving high levels of standardized, uniform health information technology use in healthcare.

Physicians in leadership: the association between medical director involvement and staff-to-patient ratios

In a hospital environment that demands a careful balance between commercial and clinical interests, the extent to which physicians are involved in hospital leadership varies greatly. This paper assesses the influence of the extent of this involvement on staff-to-patient ratios. Using data gathered from 604 hospitals across Germany, this study evidences the positive relationship between a full-time medical director (MD) or heavily involved part-time MD and a higher staff-to-patient ratio. The data allows us to control for a range of confounding variables, such as size, rural/urban location, ownership structure, and case-mix. The results contribute to the sparse body of empirical research on the effect of clinical leadership on organizational outcomes.

Reflective writing: The student nurse's perspective on reflective writing and poetry writing.

Summary Background Reflective writing is a mandatory part of nurse education but how students develop their skills and use reflection as part of their experiential learning remains relatively unknown. Understanding reflective writing in all forms from the perspective of a student nurse is therefore important. Objectives To explore the use of reflective writing and the use of poetry in pre-registered nursing students. Design A qualitative design was employed to explore reflective writing in pre-registered nursing students. Setting A small university in Scotland. Participants BSc (Hons) Adult and Mental Health Pre-registration Student Nurses. Methods Two focus groups were conducted with 10 student nurses during March 2012. Data was analysed thematically using the framework of McCarthy (1999). Results Students found the process of reflective writing daunting but valued it over time. Current educational methods, such as assessing reflective accounts, often lead to the ‘narrative’ being watered down and the student feeling judged. Despite this, reflection made students feel responsible for their own learning and research on the topic. Some students felt the use of models of reflection constricting, whilst poetry freed up their expression allowing them to demonstrate the compassion for their patient under their care. Conclusions Poetry writing gives students the opportunity for freedom of expression, personal satisfaction and a closer connection with their patients, which the more formal approach to reflective writing did not offer. There is a need for students to have a safe and supportive forum in which to express and have their experiences acknowledged without the fear of being judged.

Characteristics of primary care office visits to nurse practitioners, physician assistants and physicians in United States Veterans Health Administration facilities, 2005 to 2010: a retrospective cross-sectional analysis.

UNLABELLED: BACKGROUND: Primary care, an essential determinant of health system equity, efficiency, and effectiveness, is threatened by inadequate supply and distribution of the provider workforce. The Veterans Health Administration (VHA) has been a frontrunner in the use of nurse practitioners (NPs) and physician assistants (PAs). Evaluation of the roles and impact of NPs and PAs in the VHA is critical to ensuring optimal care for veterans and may inform best practices for use of PAs and NPs in other settings around the world. The purpose of this study was to characterize the use of NPs and PAs in VHA primary care and to examine whether their patients and patient care activities were, on average, less medically complex than those of physicians. METHODS: This is a retrospective cross-sectional analysis of administrative data from VHA primary care encounters between 2005 and 2010. Patient and patient encounter characteristics were compared across provider types (PA, NP, and physician). RESULTS: NPs and PAs attend about 30% of all VHA primary care encounters. NPs, PAs, and physicians fill similar roles in VHA primary care, but patients of PAs and NPs are slightly less complex than those of physicians, and PAs attend a higher proportion of visits for the purpose of determining eligibility for benefits. CONCLUSIONS: This study demonstrates that a highly successful nationwide primary care system relies on NPs and PAs to provide over one quarter of primary care visits, and that these visits are similar to those of physicians with regard to patient and encounter characteristics. These findings can inform health workforce solutions to physician shortages in the USA and around the world. Future research should compare the quality and costs associated with various combinations of providers and allocations of patient care work, and should elucidate the approaches that maximize quality and efficiency.

Nurse-led behavioral management of diabetes and hypertension in community practices: a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Several trials have demonstrated the efficacy of nurse telephone case management for diabetes (DM) and hypertension (HTN) in academic or vertically integrated systems. Little is known about the real-world potency of these interventions. OBJECTIVE: To assess the effectiveness of nurse behavioral management of DM and HTN in community practices among patients with both diseases. DESIGN: The study was designed as a patient-level randomized controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: Participants included adult patients with both type 2 DM and HTN who were receiving care at one of nine community fee-for-service practices. Subjects were required to have inadequately controlled DM (hemoglobin A1c [A1c] ≥ 7.5%) but could have well-controlled HTN. INTERVENTIONS: All patients received a call from a nurse experienced in DM and HTN management once every two months over a period of two years, for a total of 12 calls. Intervention patients received tailored DM- and HTN- focused behavioral content; control patients received non-tailored, non-interactive information regarding health issues unrelated to DM and HTN (e.g., skin cancer prevention). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Systolic blood pressure (SBP) and A1c were co-primary outcomes, measured at 6, 12, and 24 months; 24 months was the primary time point. RESULTS: Three hundred seventy-seven subjects were enrolled; 193 were randomized to intervention, 184 to control. Subjects were 55% female and 50% white; the mean baseline A1c was 9.1% (SD = 1%) and mean SBP was 142 mmHg (SD = 20). Eighty-two percent of scheduled interviews were conducted; 69% of intervention patients and 70% of control patients reached the 24-month time point. Expressing model estimated differences as (intervention--control), at 24 months, intervention patients had similar A1c [diff = 0.1 %, 95 % CI (-0.3, 0.5), p = 0.51] and SBP [diff = -0.9 mmHg, 95% CI (-5.4, 3.5), p = 0.68] values compared to control patients. Likewise, DBP (diff = 0.4 mmHg, p = 0.76), weight (diff = 0.3 kg, p = 0.80), and physical activity levels (diff = 153 MET-min/week, p = 0.41) were similar between control and intervention patients. Results were also similar at the 6- and 12-month time points. CONCLUSIONS: In nine community fee-for-service practices, telephonic nurse case management did not lead to improvement in A1c or SBP. Gains seen in telephonic behavioral self-management interventions in optimal settings may not translate to the wider range of primary care settings.

The relationship between blood IL-12p40 level and melanoma progression

© 2014 UICC.Cytokines such as Interleukin (IL)212p70 ("IL-12") and IL-23 can influence tumor progression. We tested the hypothesis that blood levels of IL-12p40, the common subunit of both cytokines, are associated with melanoma progression. Blood from 2,048 white melanoma patients were collected at a single institution between March 1998 and March 2011. Plasma levels of IL-12p40 were determined for 573 patients (discovery), 249 patients (Validation 1) and 244 patients (Validation 2). Per 10-unit change of IL-12p40 level was used to investigate associations with melanoma patient outcome among all patients or among patients with early or advanced stage. Among stage I/II melanoma patients in the pooled data set, after adjustment for sex, age, stage and blood draw time from diagnosis, elevated IL-12p40 was associated with melanoma recurrence [hazard ratio (HR)51.04 per 10-unit increase in IL-12p40, 95% CI 1.02-1.06, p58.48 × 10-5]; Elevated IL-12p40 was also associated with a poorer melanoma specific survival (HR51.06, 95% CI 1.03-1.09, p53.35 × 10-5) and overall survival (HR51.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.08, p58.78 × 10-7) in multivariate analysis. Among stage III/IV melanoma patients in the pooled data set, no significant association was detected between elevated IL-12p40 and overall survival, or with melanoma specific survival, with or without adjustment for the above covariates. Early stage melanoma patients with elevated IL-12p40 levels are more likely to develop disease recurrence and have a poorer survival. Further investigation with a larger sample size will be needed to determine the role of IL-12p40 in advanced stage melanoma patients.

The impact of nurse-directed protocolised-weaning from mechanical ventilation on nursing practice: A quasi-experimental study

Background:
Internationally, nurse-directed protocolised-weaning has been evaluated by measuring its impact on patient outcomes. The impact on nurses’ views and perceptions has been largely ignored.

Aim:
To determine the change in intensive care nurses’ perceptions, satisfaction, knowledge and attitudes following the introduction of nurse-directed weaning. Additionally, views were obtained on how useful protocolised-weaning was to practice.

Methods:
The sample comprised nurses working in general intensive care units in three university-affiliated hospitals. Nurse-directed protocolised-weaning was implemented in one unit (intervention group); two ICUs continued with usual doctor-led practice (control group). Nurses’ perceptions, satisfaction, knowledge and attitudes were measured by self-completed questionnaires before (Phase I) and after the implementation of nurse-directed weaning (Phase II) in all units.

Results:
Response rates were 79% (n=140n=140) for Phase 1 and 62% (n=132n=132) for Phase II. Regression-based analyses showed that changes from Phase I to Phase II were not significantly different between the intervention and control groups. Sixty-nine nurses responded to both Phase I and II questionnaires. In the intervention group, these nurses scored their mean perceived level of knowledge higher in Phase II (6.39 vs 7.17, p=0.01p=0.01). In the control group, role perception (4.41 vs 4.22, p=0.01p=0.01) was lower and, perceived knowledge (6.03 vs 6.63, p=0.04p=0.04), awareness of weaning plans (6.09 vs 7.06, p=0.01p=0.01) and satisfaction with communication (5.28 vs 6.19, p=0.01p=0.01) were higher in Phase II. The intervention group found protocolised weaning useful in their practice (75%): this was scored significantly higher by junior and senior nurses than middle grade nurses (p=0.02p=0.02).

Conclusion

We conclude that nurse-directed protocolised-weaning had no effect on nurses’ views and perceptions due to the high level of satisfaction which encouraged nurses’ participation in weaning throughout. Control group changes are attributed to a ‘reactive effect’ from being study participants. Weaning protocols provide a uniform method of weaning practice and are particularly beneficial in providing safe guidance for junior staff.

Addressing Bed Costs for the Elderly: A New Methodology for Modelling Patient Outcomes and Length of Stay

The proportion of elderly in the population has dramatically increased and will continue to do so for at least the next 50 years. Medical resources throughout the world are feeling the added strain of the increasing proportion of elderly in the population. The effective care of elderly patients in hospitals may be enhanced by accurately modelling the length of stay of the patients in hospital and the associated costs involved. This paper examines previously developed models for patient length of stay in hospital and describes the recently developed conditional phase-type distribution (C-Ph) to model patient duration of stay in relation to explanatory patient variables. The Clinics data set was used to demonstrate the C-Ph methodology. The resulting model highlighted a strong relationship between Barthel grade, patient outcome and length of stay showing various groups of patient behaviour. The patients who stay in hospital for a very long time are usually those that consume the largest amount of hospital resources. These have been identified as the patients whose resulting outcome is transfer. Overall, the majority of transfer patients spend a considerably longer period of time in hospital compared to patients who die or are discharged home. The C-Ph model has the potential for considering costs where different costs are attached to the various phases or subgroups of patients and the anticipated cost of care estimated in advance. It is hoped that such a method will lead to the successful identification of the most cost effective case-mix management of the hospital ward.