Seasonal forecasts of tropical cyclone activity in a high-atmospheric-resolution coupled prediction system

Seasonal forecast skill of the basinwide and regional tropical cyclone (TC) activity in an experimental coupled prediction system based on the ECMWF System 4 is assessed. As part of a collaboration between the Center for Ocean–Land–Atmosphere Studies (COLA) and the ECMWF called Project Minerva, the system is integrated at the atmospheric horizontal spectral resolutions of T319, T639, and T1279. Seven-month hindcasts starting from 1 May for the years 1980–2011 are produced at all three resolutions with at least 15 ensemble members. The Minerva system demonstrates statistically significant skill for retrospective forecasts of TC frequency and accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) in the North Atlantic (NA), eastern North Pacific (EP), and western North Pacific. While the highest scores overall are achieved in the North Pacific, the skill in the NA appears to be limited by an overly strong influence of the tropical Pacific variability. Higher model resolution improves skill scores for the ACE and, to a lesser extent, the TC frequency, even though the influence of large-scale climate variations on these TC activity measures is largely independent of resolution changes. The biggest gain occurs in transition from T319 to T639. Significant skill in regional TC forecasts is achieved over broad areas of the Northern Hemisphere. The highest-resolution hindcasts exhibit additional locations with skill in the NA and EP, including land-adjacent areas. The feasibility of regional intensity forecasts is assessed. In the presence of the coupled model biases, the benefits of high resolution for seasonal TC forecasting may be underestimated.

Opening movements in Ophuls: Caught (and Madame de …)

This audiovisual essay was created at the wonderful NEH-funded workshop in videographic criticism at Middlebury College, ‘Scholarship in Sound and Image’. The essay provides an analysis of the orchestration of long takes and camera movement in the opening of Caught (Ophuls, 1949), and develops a comparison with the opening of Madame de… (Ophuls, 1953 – U.S. release title The Earrings of Madame de…), not least through a series of juxtapositions, which can be directly presented and compared in an audiovisual essay. The openings share a concern with the subjectivity of the female protagonists and our relationship toward it, evoking the women’s experience while balancing this with other kinds of perspective. As has been noted in the critical literature on Ophuls, and on melodramas of passion more generally, such views enable us to perceive the women concerned to be caught in material and ideological frameworks of which they are at best partially aware. Among the interests of this particular comparison, however, is the extent to which the dynamic around female subjectivity is played in relation to luxury goods, imagined, owned or admired. Tensions between on- and off-screen spaces and sounds are critical to the interest of the long takes under discussion. Camera movements subtly inflect the extent to which we are aligned (or otherwise) with the characters and the ways in which their material circumstances are revealed to us.

‘Moving on’ : Violence, wellbeing and questions about violence in antenatal care encounters. A qualitative study with Somali-born refugees in Sweden

Background Somali-born women constitute one of the largest groups of childbearing refugee women in Sweden after more than two decades of political violence in Somalia. In Sweden, these women encounter antenatal care that includes routine questions about violence being asked. The aim of the study was to explore how Somali-born women understand and relate to violence and wellbeing during their migration transition and their views on being approached with questions about violence in Swedish antenatal care. Method Qualitative interviews (22) with Somali-born women (17) living in Sweden were conducted and analysed using thematic analysis. Findings A balancing actbetween keeping private life private and the new welfare system was identified, where the midwife's questions about violence were met with hesitance. The midwife was, however, considered a resource for access to support services in the new society. A focus on pragmatic strategies to move on in life, rather than dwelling on potential experiences of violence and related traumas, was prominent. Social networks, spiritual faith and motherhood were crucial for regaining coherence in the aftermath of war. Dialogue and mutual adjustments were identified as strategies used to overcome power tensions in intimate relationships undergoing transition. Conclusions If confidentiality and links between violence and health are explained and clarified during the care encounter, screening for violence can be more beneficial in relation to Somali-born women. The focus on “moving on” and rationality indicates strength and access to alternative resources, but needs to be balanced against risks for hidden needs in care encounters. A care environment with continuity of care and trustful relationships enhances possibilities for the midwife to balance these dual perspectives and identify potential needs. Collaborations between Somali communities, maternity care and social service providers can contribute with support to families in transition and bridge gaps to formal social and care services.

Evaluation of zona pellucida birefringence intensity during in vitro maturation of oocytes from stimulated cycles

Background: This study evaluated whether there is a relationship between the zona pellucida birefringence (ZP-BF) intensity and the nuclear (NM) and cytoplasmic (CM) in vitro maturation of human oocytes from stimulated cycles.Results: The ZP-BF was evaluated under an inverted microscope with a polarizing optical system and was scored as high/positive (when the ZP image presented a uniform and intense birefringence) or low/negative (when the image presented moderate and heterogeneous birefringence). CM was analyzed by evaluating the distribution of cortical granules (CGs) throughout the ooplasm by immunofluorescence staining. CM was classified as: complete, when CG was localized in the periphery; incomplete, when oocytes presented a cluster of CGs in the center; or in transition, when oocytes had both in clusters throughout cytoplasm and distributed in a layer in the cytoplasm periphery Nuclear maturation: From a total of 83 germinal vesicle (GV) stage oocytes, 58 of oocytes (69.9%) reached NM at the metaphase II stage. From these 58 oocytes matured in vitro, the high/positively scoring ZP-BF was presented in 82.7% of oocytes at the GV stage, in 75.8% of oocytes when at the metaphase I, and in 82.7% when oocytes reached MII. No relationship was observed between NM and ZP-BF positive/negative scores (P = 0.55). These variables had a low Pearson's correlation coefficient (r = 0.081). Cytoplasmic maturation: A total of 85 in vitro-matured MII oocytes were fixed for CM evaluation. Forty-nine oocytes of them (57.6%) showed the complete CM, 30 (61.2%) presented a high/positively scoring ZP-BF and 19 (38.8%) had a low/negatively scoring ZP-BF. From 36 oocytes (42.3%) with incomplete CM, 18 (50%) presented a high/positively scoring ZPBF and 18 (50%) had a low/negatively scoring ZP-BF. No relationship was observed between CM and ZP-BF positive/negative scores (P = 0.42). These variables had a low Pearson's correlation coefficient (r = 0.11).Conclusions: The current study demonstrated an absence of relationship between ZP-BF high/positive or low/negative score and nuclear and cytoplasmic in vitro maturation of oocytes from stimulation cycles.

Mechanism for interplay between electron and ionic fluxes in KhFek[Fe(CN)(6)](l)center dot mH(2)O compounds

This paper develops a framework for the interpretation of ionic insertion/deinsertion reactions in an aqueous environment taking place in transition-metal hexacyanoferrates of the general formula KhFek3+ [Fe2+ (CN)(6)](l)center dot mH(2)O, also called Prussian Blue. Three different processes were fully separated in the electrochemistry of these films. It was clearly identified that one of these electrochemical processes involves the insertion/deinsertion of H3O+ (hydrated protons) through the channels of the KhFek3+ [Fe2+ (CN)(6)](l) center dot mH(2)O structure to reach the film electroneutrality during the electron transfer between Everitt's Salt and Prussian Blue. The other electrochemical processes involve K+ or H+ (proton) exchange through the water crystalline structure existing in the channels of the KhFek3+ [Fe2+(CN)(6)](l)center dot mH(2)O structure.

Anelastic relaxation processes due oxygen in Nb-3.1 at.% Ti alloys

In the last 50 years several studies have been made to understand the relaxation mechanisms of the heavy interstitial atoms present in transition metals and their alloys. Internal friction measurements have been carried out in a Nb-Ti alloy containing 3.1 at.% of Ti produced by the Materials Department of Chemical Engineering Faculty of Lorena (Brazil), with several quantities of oxygen in solid solution using a torsion pendulum. These measurements have been performed by a torsion pendulum in the temperature range from 300 to 700 K with an oscillation frequency between 0.5 and 10 Hz. The experimental results show complex internal friction spectra that have been resolved, into a series of Debye peaks corresponding to different interactions. For each relaxation process it was possible to obtain the height and temperature of the peak, the activation energy and the relaxation time of the process. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Cell-mediated and humoral immunity in West syndrome

The immunological status of five children with West syndrome consequent to previous cerebral lesions was investigated. Three children had West syndrome and two were in transition from West to Lennox-Gastaut syndrome. All of them showed cellular immunological deficiencies in the following tests: sensitization to DNCB, intracutaneous reaction to PHA, inhibition of leukocyte migration, blastic transformation of lymphocytes, T and B lymphocytes in peripheral blood and levels of serum immunoglobulins. These immunological deficiencies, of different degrees of severity, were associated with frequent infections in these children. A possible association between the immunological deficiencies and autoimmunity is discussed.

Anelastic relaxation due to OH pairs in NbZr alloys

In the last 30 years several studies have been made to understand the relaxation mechanisms of the hydrogen atoms present in transition metals and their alloys. In this work, we observed the stress-induced ordering of hydrogen atoms around the interstitial oxygen atoms near the niobium matrix atoms. We studied this relaxation process by measuring the attenuation of longitudinal ultrasonic waves. These measurements were made in Nb1.0%Zr polycrystalline alloys at 10 and 30 MHz, pure and doped with 0.7 and 4.2 at.% hydrogen. The results revealed a thermally activated relaxation structure around 202 K and 235 K for 10 MHz and 30 MHz respectively. This relaxation structure increases with increasing hydrogen concentration. © 1994.

Parasitism level by helminths and weight gain of calves kept in organic and conventional grazing

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Social policies in the nineties

Includes bibliography

Capital formation in the context of Brazil's economic reforms in the nineties: a sectorial approach

Includes bibliography