Service Quality Analysis in the Five Stars Resort Hotels of Cape Verde

The objective of this study was the identification of the attributes and dimensions of service quality affecting the service performance of the five stars resort hotels located in the Cape Verde Islands. The reason boosting the initiative to do this research was the paramount role of the resort hotels in the development of the travel and tourism sector in Cape Verde, and the impact that today this sector has had in the economy of that country. The research opens with a literature review on the service quality theory in the hotel industry, starting from the middle of the 1980s with the classic model of service quality and SERVQUAL instrument to the analysis of recent models of service quality measurement in the hotel industry, as it is an example the scale of items developed in 2003 in the Lodging Quality Index (LQI). Furthermore, the study elaborates an analysis on the importance of the travel and tourism activities in the Cape Verde Islands, and it evidences the enormous importance of those activities in the performance of the Cape Verdean hotel industry. In sequence the study analyzes in details the hotel industry of Cape Verde and it identifies the market size of the five stars resort hotels and their current operators in that market. Moreover, the research develops with an online questionnaire elaborated and sent through the platforms of travel websites and communities to the guests whom have experienced the service of the five stars resort hotels located in the Cape Verde Islands. The scope of the questionnaire was to assess the attributes and dimensions of service quality in the five stars resort hotels of Cape Verde. The results of the questionnaire were in sequence analyzed through descriptive and applied statistics, using Microsoft Excel and the Statistical Package for Social Science (SPSS). Content validity analysis, factor analysis, and reliability analysis of the factors were made to purify an initial scale of 47 items of service quality. An instrument with three dimensions covering twenty four attributes of service quality assessment in the five stars resort hotels of Cape Verde was finally created. The three dimensions found were: staff competence; food and entertainment; and physical facilities. This study on the service in the five stars resort hotels of Cape Verde ends with brief comments on the status of service quality according to the identified dimensions and their attributes. In the conclusion, the study summarizes the whole work and gives some directions for future research.

Faktorenanalytische Untersuchung und Rehabilitätsbestimmung der statischen und dynamischen Pupillometrie bei Normalpersonen und psychopathologischen Gruppen [Factor analytic study and determination of rehabilitation of static and dynamic pupillometry in normal persons and psychopathologic groups]

Variables measured during static and dynamic pupillometry were factor-analyzed. Following factors were obtained regardless whether investigations were carried out in normals or in psychiatric patients: A static factor, a dynamic factor, a stimulus-specific factor and a restitution-dependent factor. Evaluation of reliability in normals demonstrated a high reliability for the static variables of pupillometry.

Irrigation with domestic wastewater: a multivariate analysis of main soil changes

Irrigation with treated domestic sewage wastewater (TSE) is an agricultural practice to reduce water requirements of agroecossystems and the nutrient load impact on freshwaters, but adverse effects on soil chemical (salinization, sodification, etc.) and soil physical properties (alteration in soil porosity and hydraulic conductivity, etc.) have been reported. This study aimed to define some relationships among these changes in an Oxisol using multivariate analysis. Corn (Zea mays L.) and sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) were grown for two years, irrigated with TSE. The following soil properties were determined: Ca2+; Mg2+; Na+; K+ and H + Al contents, cationic exchangeable capacity (CEC), sum of bases (SB), base saturation (V), texture (sand, silt and clay), macro-, micro-, and cryptoporosity (V MA, V MI and V CRI), water content at soil saturation (θS) and at field capacity (θFC), residual water content (θR), soil bulk density (d s), water dispersed clay (WDC) and saturated hydraulic conductivity (K SAT). Factor analysis revealed the following six principal factors: Fine Porosity (composed of Na+; K+; WDC, θR, θRFC, and V CRI); Large Porosity (θS, d s, V MA, Vs); Soil CEC (Ca2+; Mg2+; CEC, SB, V); Soil Acidity (H + Al); and Soil Texture (factors 5 and 6). A dual pore structure appears clearly to the factors 1 and 2, with an apparent relationship between fine porosity and the monovalent cations Na+ and K+. The irrigation (with potable sodic tap water or sewage wastewater) only had a significant effect on Fine Porosity and Large Porosity factors, while factors 3 and 4 (Soil CEC and Soil Acidity) were correlated with soil depth. The main conclusion was a shift in pore distribution (large to fine pores) during irrigation with TSE, which induces an increase of water storage and reduces the capacity of drainage of salts.

The four- vs. alternative six-factor structure of the French WISC-IV: Comparison using confirmatory factor analyses

Exploratory and confirmatory factor analyses reported in the French technical manual of the WISC-IV provides evidence supporting a structure with four indices: Verbal Comprehension (VCI), Perceptual Reasoning (PRI), Working Memory (WMI), and Processing Speed (PSI). Although the WISC-IV is more attuned to contemporary theory, it is still not in total accordance with the dominant theory: the Cattell-Horn-Carroll (CHC) theory of cognitive ability. This study was designed to determine whether the French WISC-IV is better described with the four-factor solution or whether an alternative model based on the CHC theory is more appropriate. The intercorrelations matrix reported in the French technical manual was submitted to confirmatory factor analysis. A comparison of competing models suggests that a model based on the CHC theory fits the data better than the current WISC-IV structure. It appears that the French WISC-IV in fact measures six factors: crystallized intelligence (Gc), fluid intelligence (Gf), short-term memory (Gsm), processing speed (Gs), quantitative knowledge (Gq), and visual processing (Gv). We recommend that clinicians interpret the subtests of the French WISC-IV in relation to this CHC model in addition to the four indices.

Fate of the herbicide glyphosate and its metabolite AMPA in soils and their transfer to surface waters: A multi-scale approach in the Lavaux vineyards, western Switzerland

The use of herbicides in agriculture may lead to environmental problems, such as surface water pollution, with a potential risk for aquatic organisms. The herbicide glyphosate is the most used active ingredient in the world and in Switzerland. In the Lavaux vineyards it is nearly the only molecule applied. This work aimed at studying its fate in soils and its transfer to surface waters, using a multi-scale approach: from molecular (10-9 m) and microscopic scales (10-6 m), to macroscopic (m) and landscape ones (103 m). First of all, an analytical method was developed for the trace level quantification of this widely used herbicide and its main by-product, aminomethylphosphonic acid (AMPA). Due to their polar nature, their derivatization with 9-fluorenylmethyl chloroformate (FMOC-Cl) was done prior to their concentration and purification by solid phase extraction. They were then analyzed by ultra performance liquid chromatography coupled with tandem mass spectrometry (UPLC-MS/MS). The method was tested in different aqueous matrices with spiking tests and validated for the matrix effect correction in relevant environmental samples. Calibration curves established between 10 and 1000ng/l showed r2 values above 0.989, mean recoveries varied between 86 and 133% and limits of detection and quantification of the method were as low as 5 and 10ng/l respectively. At the parcel scale, two parcels of the Lavaux vineyard area, located near the Lutrive River at 6km to the east of Lausanne, were monitored to assess to which extent glyphosate and AMPA were retained in the soil or exported to surface waters. They were equipped at their bottom with porous ceramic cups and runoff collectors, which allowed retrieving water samples for the growing seasons 2010 and 2011. Results revealed that the mobility of glyphosate and AMPA in the unsaturated zone was likely driven by the precipitation regime and the soil characteristics, such as slope, porosity structure and layer permeability discrepancy. Elevated glyphosate and AMPA concentrations were measured at 60 and 80 cm depth at parcel bottoms, suggesting their infiltration in the upper parts of the parcels and the presence of preferential flow in the studied parcels. Indeed, the succession of rainy days induced the gradual saturation of the soil porosity, leading to rapid infiltration through macropores, as well as surface runoff formation. Furthermore, the presence of more impervious weathered marls at 100 cm depth induced throughflows, the importance of which for the lateral transport of the herbicide molecules was determined by the slope steepness. Important rainfall events (>10 mm/day) were clearly exporting molecules from the soil top layer, as indicated by important concentrations in runoff samples. A mass balance showed that total loss (10-20%) mainly occurred through surface runoff (96%) and, to a minor extent, by throughflows in soils (4%), with subsequent exfiltration to surface waters. Observations made in the Lutrive River revealed interesting details of glyphosate and AMPA dynamics in urbanized landscapes, such as the Lavaux vineyards. Indeed, besides their physical and chemical properties, herbicide dynamics at the catchment level strongly depend on application rates, precipitation regime, land use and also on the presence of drains or constructed channels. Elevated concentrations, up to 4970 ng/l, observed just after the application, confirmed the diffuse export of these compounds from the vineyard area by surface runoff during main rain events. From April to September 2011, a total load of 7.1 kg was calculated, with 85% coming from vineyards and minor urban sources and 15% from arable crops. Small vineyard surfaces could generate high concentrations of herbicides and contribute considerably to the total load calculated at the outlet, due to their steep slopes (~10%). The extrapolated total amount transferred yearly from the Lavaux vineyards to the Lake of Geneva was of 190kg. At the molecular scale, the possible involvement of dissolved organic matter (DOM) in glyphosate and copper transport was studied using UV/Vis fluorescence spectroscopy. Combined with parallel factor (PARAFAC) analysis, this technique allowed characterizing DOM of soil and surface water samples from the studied vineyard area. Glyphosate concentrations were linked to the fulvic-like spectroscopic signature of DOM in soil water samples, as well as to copper, suggesting the formation of ternary complexes. In surface water samples, its concentrations were also correlated to copper ones, but not in a significant way to the fulvic-like signature. Quenching experiments with standards confirmed field tendencies in the laboratory, with a stronger decrease in fluorescence intensity for fulvic-like fluorophore than for more aromatic ones. Lastly, based on maximum concentrations measured in the river, an environmental risk for these compounds was assessed, using laboratory tests and ecotoxicity data from the literature. In our case and with the methodology applied, the risk towards aquatic species was found negligible (RF<1).

Nutrient-based dietary patterns and the risk of head and neck cancer: a pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium.

Background The association between dietary patterns and head and neck cancer has rarely been addressed. Patients and methods We used individual-level pooled data from five case-control studies (2452 cases and 5013 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium. A posteriori dietary patterns were identified through a principal component factor analysis carried out on 24 nutrients derived from study-specific food-frequency questionnaires. Odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression models on quintiles of factor scores. Results We identified three major dietary patterns named 'animal products and cereals', 'antioxidant vitamins and fiber', and 'fats'. The 'antioxidant vitamins and fiber' pattern was inversely related to oral and pharyngeal cancer (OR = 0.57, 95% CI 0.43-0.76 for the highest versus the lowest score quintile). The 'animal products and cereals' pattern was positively associated with laryngeal cancer (OR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.12-2.11), whereas the 'fats' pattern was inversely associated with oral and pharyngeal cancer (OR = 0.78, 95% CI 0.63-0.97) and positively associated with laryngeal cancer (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.22-2.34). Conclusions These findings suggest that diets rich in animal products, cereals, and fats are positively related to laryngeal cancer, and those rich in fruit and vegetables inversely related to oral and pharyngeal cancer.

Soil quality assessment through a multi-approach analysis in soils of abandoned terraced land in NE Spain

The abandonment of agricultural land in mountainous areas has been an outstanding problem along the last century and has captured the attention of scientists, technicians and administrations, for the dramatic consequences sometimes occurred due to soil instability, steep slopes, rainfall regimes and wildfires. Hidromorfological and pedological alterations causing exceptional floods and accelerated erosion processes has therefore been studied, identifying the cause in the loss of landscape heterogeneity. Through the disappearance of agricultural works and drainage maintenance, slope stability has resulted severely affected. The mechanization of agriculture has caused the displacement of vines, olives and corks trees cultivation in terraced areas along the Mediterranean catchment towards more economically suitable areas. On the one hand, land use and management changes have implicated sociological changes as well, transforming areas inhabited by agricultural communities into deserted areas where the colonization of disorganized spontaneous vegetation has buried a valuable rural patrimony. On the other hand, lacking of planning and management of the abandoned areas has produced badlands and infertile soils due to wildfire and high erosion rates strongly degrading the whole ecosystems. In other cases, after land abandonment a process of soil regeneration has been recorded. Investigations have been conducted in a part of NE Spain where extended areas of terraced soils previously cultivated have been abandoned in the last century. The selected environments were semi-abandoned vineyards, semi-abandoned olive groves, abandoned stands of cork trees, abandoned stands of pine trees, scrubland of Cistaceaea, scrubland of Ericaceaea, and pasture. The research work was focused on the study of most relevant physical, chemical and biological soil properties, as well as runoff and erosion under soils with different plant cover to establish the abandonment effect on soil quality, due to the peculiarity and vulnerability of these soils with a much reduced depth. The period of observation was carried out from autumn 2009 to autumn 2010. The sediment concentration of soil erosion under vines was recorded as 34.52 g/l while under pasture it was 4.66 g/l. In addition, the soil under vines showed the least amount of organic matter, which was 12 times lower than all other soil environments. The carbon dioxide (CO2) and total glomalin (TG) ratio to soil organic carbon (SOC) in this soil was 0.11 and 0.31 respectively. However, the soil under pasture contained a higher amount of organic matter and showed that the CO2 and TG ratio to SOC was 0.02 and 0.11 respectively indicating that the soil under pasture better preserves the soil carbon pool. A similar trend was found in the intermediate soils in the sequence of land use change and abandonment. Soil structural stability increased in the two soil fractions investigated (0.25-2.00 mm, 2.0-5.6 mm) especially in those soils that did not undergo periodical perturbations like wildfires. Soil quality indexes were obtained by using relevant physical and chemical soil parameters. Factor analysis carried out to study the relationship between all soil parameters allowed to related variables and environments and identify those areas that better contribute to soil quality towards others that may need more attention to avoid further degradation processes

Integrated multivariate analysis to evaluate effects of pre-slaughter handling on pork quality

The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of pre-slaughter handling on the occurrence of PSE (Pale, Soft, and Exudative) meat in swine slaughtered at a commercial slaughterhouse located in the metropolitan region of Dourados, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil. Based on the database (n=1,832 carcasses), it was possible to apply the integrated multivariate analysis for the purpose of identifying, among the selected variables, those of greatest relevance to this study. Results of the Principal Component Analysis showed that the first five components explained 89.28% of total variance. In the Factor Analysis, the first factor represented the thermal stress and fatiguing conditions for swine during pre-slaughter handling. In general, this study indicated the importance of the pre-slaughter handling stages, evidencing those of greatest stress and threat to animal welfare and pork quality, which are transport time, resting period, lairage time before unloading, unloading time, and ambience.

Multivariate analysis of pollen frequency of the native species Escallonia pulverulenta (Saxifragaceae) in Chilean honeys

The aim of this work was the identification of geographic zones suitable for the production of honeys in which pollen grains of Escallonia pulverulenta (Ruiz & Pav.) Pers. (Saxifragaceae) can be detected. The analysis of botanical origin of 240 honey samples produced between La Serena and Puerto Mont (the IV and X Administrative Regions of Chile), allowed the detection of pollen grains of E. pulverulenta in 46 Chilean honeys. The geographic distribution of the honeys studied is presented together with their affinities, through factor analysis and frequency tables. The study was based on the presence of E. pulverulenta pollen. Escallonia pulverulenta pollen percentages oscillated between 0.24% and 78.5%. Seventeen of the studied samples were designated as unifloral - i.e. samples showing more than 45% pollen of a determined plant species. Two of these corresponded to E. pulverulenta (corontillo, madroño or barraco) honeys. The remaining unifloral honeys correspond to 8 samples of Lotus uliginosus Schkuhr (birdsfoot trefoil), 2 samples of Aristotelia chilensis (Molina) Stuntz (maqui) and 1 sample of Escallonia rubra (Ruiz & Pav.) Pers. (siete camisas), Eucryphia cordifolia Cav. (ulmo or muemo), Weinmannia trichosperma Cav. (tineo), Rubus ulmifolius Schott (blackberry) and Brassica rapa L. (turnip). Honeys with different percentages of E. pulverulenta pollen - statistically analyzed through correspondence analysis - could be associated and assigned to one of three geographic types, defined on the basis of this analysis. The geographical type areas defined were the Northern Mediterranean Zone (samples from the IV Region), Central Mediterranean Zone (samples from the V to the VIII regions including two samples of unifloral Escallonia pulverulenta honey), and Southern Mediterranean Zone (samples from the IX Region).

Influence of distillation time and sample mass on sulfur dioxide analysis in passion fruit juice through Monier-Williams method

AbstractThis study aimed to evaluate the effect of the distillation time and the sample mass on the total SO2 content in integral passion fruit juice (Passiflora sp). For the SO2 analysis, a modified version of the Monier-Williams method was used. In this experiment, the distillation time and the sample mass were reduced to half of the values proposed in the original method. The analyses were performed in triplicate for each distilling time x sample mass binomial, making a total of 12 tests, which were performed on the same day. The significance of the effects of the different distillation times and sample mass were evaluated by applying one-factor analysis of variance (ANOVA). For a 95% confidence limit, it was found that the proposed amendments to the distillation time, sample mass, and the interaction between distilling time x sample mass were not significant (p > 0.05) in determining the SO2 content in passion fruit juice. In view of the results that were obtained it was concluded that for integral passion fruit juice it was possible to reduce the distillation time and the sample mass in determining the SO2 content by the Monier-Williams method without affecting the result.

Analysis and guidelines for implementation of EN 1090-2 Standard to assist execution class assignment of steel structures

Finnish design and consulting companies are delivering robust and cost-efficient steel structures solutions to a large number of manufacturing companies worldwide. Recently introduced EN 1090-2 standard obliges these companies to specify the execution class of steel structures for their customers. This however, requires clarifying, understanding and interpreting the sophisticated procedure of execution class assignment. The objective of this research is to provide a clear explanation and guidance through the process of execution class assignment for a given steel structure and to support the implementation of EN 1090-2 standard in Rejlers Oy, one of Finnish design and consulting companies. This objective is accomplished by creating a guideline for designers that elaborates on the four-step process of the execution class assignment for a steel structure or its part. Steps one to three define the consequence class (projected consequences of structure failure), the service category (hazards associated with the service use exploitation of steel structure) and the production category (manufacturing process peculiarities), based on the ductility class (capacity of structure to withstand deformations) and the behaviour factor (corresponds to structure seismic behaviour). The final step is the execution class assignment taking into account results of previous steps. Main research method is indepth literature review of European standards family for steel structures. Other research approach is a series of interviews of Rejlers Oy representatives and its clients, results of which have been used to evaluate the level of EN 1090-2 awareness. Rejlers Oy will use the developed novel coherent standard implementation guideline to improve its services and to obtain greater customer satisfaction.

A five factor model of grief : a q-methodological study /

Q-methodology permitted 41 people to communicate their perspective of grief. In an attempt to clarify the research to date and to allow those who have experienced this human journey to direct the scientists, 80 statements were chosen to present to the participants based on the research from academic and counselling sources. Five different perspectives emerged from the Q-sorts and factor analysis. Each perspective was valuable for the understanding of different groups of mourners. They were interpreted using questionnaire data and interview information. They are as follows: Factor 1- Growth Optimism; Factor 2 - Schema Destruction and Negative Affect; Factor 3- Identification with the Deceased Person; Factor 4- Intact World view with High Clarity and High Social Support; Factor 5- Schema Destruction with High Preoccupation and Attention to Emotion. Some people grow in the face of grief, others hold on to essentially the same schemas and others are devastated by their loss. The different perspectives reported herein supply clues to the sources of these differing outcomes. From examination of Factor 1, it appears that a healthy living relationship helps substantially in the event of loss. An orientation toward emotions that encourages clarity, exemplified by Factor 4, without hyper-vigilance to emotion may be helpful as well. Strategies for maintaining schematic representations of the world with little alteration include: identification with the values of the deceased person, as in Factor 3 and reliance on social support and/or God as demonstrated by Factor 4. When the relationship had painful periods, social support may be accessed to benefit some mourners. When the person's frame of reference or higher order schemas are assaulted by the events of loss, the people most at risk for traumatic grief seem to be those with difficult relationships as indicated by Factor 5 individuals. When low social support, high attention to emotion with low clarity and little belief that feelings can be altered for the better are also attributes of the mourner devastating grief can result. In the end, there are groups of people who are forced to endure the entire process of schema destruction and devastation. Some appear to recover in part and others appear to stay in a form of purgatory for many years. The results of this study suggest that, those who experience devastating grief may be in the minority. In the future interventions could be more specifically addressed if these perspectives are replicated in a larger, more detailed study.

Factor models, VARMA processes and parameter instability with applications in macroeconomics

Avec les avancements de la technologie de l'information, les données temporelles économiques et financières sont de plus en plus disponibles. Par contre, si les techniques standard de l'analyse des séries temporelles sont utilisées, une grande quantité d'information est accompagnée du problème de dimensionnalité. Puisque la majorité des séries d'intérêt sont hautement corrélées, leur dimension peut être réduite en utilisant l'analyse factorielle. Cette technique est de plus en plus populaire en sciences économiques depuis les années 90. Étant donnée la disponibilité des données et des avancements computationnels, plusieurs nouvelles questions se posent. Quels sont les effets et la transmission des chocs structurels dans un environnement riche en données? Est-ce que l'information contenue dans un grand ensemble d'indicateurs économiques peut aider à mieux identifier les chocs de politique monétaire, à l'égard des problèmes rencontrés dans les applications utilisant des modèles standards? Peut-on identifier les chocs financiers et mesurer leurs effets sur l'économie réelle? Peut-on améliorer la méthode factorielle existante et y incorporer une autre technique de réduction de dimension comme l'analyse VARMA? Est-ce que cela produit de meilleures prévisions des grands agrégats macroéconomiques et aide au niveau de l'analyse par fonctions de réponse impulsionnelles? Finalement, est-ce qu'on peut appliquer l'analyse factorielle au niveau des paramètres aléatoires? Par exemple, est-ce qu'il existe seulement un petit nombre de sources de l'instabilité temporelle des coefficients dans les modèles macroéconomiques empiriques? Ma thèse, en utilisant l'analyse factorielle structurelle et la modélisation VARMA, répond à ces questions à travers cinq articles. Les deux premiers chapitres étudient les effets des chocs monétaire et financier dans un environnement riche en données. Le troisième article propose une nouvelle méthode en combinant les modèles à facteurs et VARMA. Cette approche est appliquée dans le quatrième article pour mesurer les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada. La contribution du dernier chapitre est d'imposer la structure à facteurs sur les paramètres variant dans le temps et de montrer qu'il existe un petit nombre de sources de cette instabilité. Le premier article analyse la transmission de la politique monétaire au Canada en utilisant le modèle vectoriel autorégressif augmenté par facteurs (FAVAR). Les études antérieures basées sur les modèles VAR ont trouvé plusieurs anomalies empiriques suite à un choc de la politique monétaire. Nous estimons le modèle FAVAR en utilisant un grand nombre de séries macroéconomiques mensuelles et trimestrielles. Nous trouvons que l'information contenue dans les facteurs est importante pour bien identifier la transmission de la politique monétaire et elle aide à corriger les anomalies empiriques standards. Finalement, le cadre d'analyse FAVAR permet d'obtenir les fonctions de réponse impulsionnelles pour tous les indicateurs dans l'ensemble de données, produisant ainsi l'analyse la plus complète à ce jour des effets de la politique monétaire au Canada. Motivée par la dernière crise économique, la recherche sur le rôle du secteur financier a repris de l'importance. Dans le deuxième article nous examinons les effets et la propagation des chocs de crédit sur l'économie réelle en utilisant un grand ensemble d'indicateurs économiques et financiers dans le cadre d'un modèle à facteurs structurel. Nous trouvons qu'un choc de crédit augmente immédiatement les diffusions de crédit (credit spreads), diminue la valeur des bons de Trésor et cause une récession. Ces chocs ont un effet important sur des mesures d'activité réelle, indices de prix, indicateurs avancés et financiers. Contrairement aux autres études, notre procédure d'identification du choc structurel ne requiert pas de restrictions temporelles entre facteurs financiers et macroéconomiques. De plus, elle donne une interprétation des facteurs sans restreindre l'estimation de ceux-ci. Dans le troisième article nous étudions la relation entre les représentations VARMA et factorielle des processus vectoriels stochastiques, et proposons une nouvelle classe de modèles VARMA augmentés par facteurs (FAVARMA). Notre point de départ est de constater qu'en général les séries multivariées et facteurs associés ne peuvent simultanément suivre un processus VAR d'ordre fini. Nous montrons que le processus dynamique des facteurs, extraits comme combinaison linéaire des variables observées, est en général un VARMA et non pas un VAR comme c'est supposé ailleurs dans la littérature. Deuxièmement, nous montrons que même si les facteurs suivent un VAR d'ordre fini, cela implique une représentation VARMA pour les séries observées. Alors, nous proposons le cadre d'analyse FAVARMA combinant ces deux méthodes de réduction du nombre de paramètres. Le modèle est appliqué dans deux exercices de prévision en utilisant des données américaines et canadiennes de Boivin, Giannoni et Stevanovic (2010, 2009) respectivement. Les résultats montrent que la partie VARMA aide à mieux prévoir les importants agrégats macroéconomiques relativement aux modèles standards. Finalement, nous estimons les effets de choc monétaire en utilisant les données et le schéma d'identification de Bernanke, Boivin et Eliasz (2005). Notre modèle FAVARMA(2,1) avec six facteurs donne les résultats cohérents et précis des effets et de la transmission monétaire aux États-Unis. Contrairement au modèle FAVAR employé dans l'étude ultérieure où 510 coefficients VAR devaient être estimés, nous produisons les résultats semblables avec seulement 84 paramètres du processus dynamique des facteurs. L'objectif du quatrième article est d'identifier et mesurer les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada dans un environnement riche en données et en utilisant le modèle FAVARMA structurel. Dans le cadre théorique de l'accélérateur financier développé par Bernanke, Gertler et Gilchrist (1999), nous approximons la prime de financement extérieur par les credit spreads. D'un côté, nous trouvons qu'une augmentation non-anticipée de la prime de financement extérieur aux États-Unis génère une récession significative et persistante au Canada, accompagnée d'une hausse immédiate des credit spreads et taux d'intérêt canadiens. La composante commune semble capturer les dimensions importantes des fluctuations cycliques de l'économie canadienne. L'analyse par décomposition de la variance révèle que ce choc de crédit a un effet important sur différents secteurs d'activité réelle, indices de prix, indicateurs avancés et credit spreads. De l'autre côté, une hausse inattendue de la prime canadienne de financement extérieur ne cause pas d'effet significatif au Canada. Nous montrons que les effets des chocs de crédit au Canada sont essentiellement causés par les conditions globales, approximées ici par le marché américain. Finalement, étant donnée la procédure d'identification des chocs structurels, nous trouvons des facteurs interprétables économiquement. Le comportement des agents et de l'environnement économiques peut varier à travers le temps (ex. changements de stratégies de la politique monétaire, volatilité de chocs) induisant de l'instabilité des paramètres dans les modèles en forme réduite. Les modèles à paramètres variant dans le temps (TVP) standards supposent traditionnellement les processus stochastiques indépendants pour tous les TVPs. Dans cet article nous montrons que le nombre de sources de variabilité temporelle des coefficients est probablement très petit, et nous produisons la première évidence empirique connue dans les modèles macroéconomiques empiriques. L'approche Factor-TVP, proposée dans Stevanovic (2010), est appliquée dans le cadre d'un modèle VAR standard avec coefficients aléatoires (TVP-VAR). Nous trouvons qu'un seul facteur explique la majorité de la variabilité des coefficients VAR, tandis que les paramètres de la volatilité des chocs varient d'une façon indépendante. Le facteur commun est positivement corrélé avec le taux de chômage. La même analyse est faite avec les données incluant la récente crise financière. La procédure suggère maintenant deux facteurs et le comportement des coefficients présente un changement important depuis 2007. Finalement, la méthode est appliquée à un modèle TVP-FAVAR. Nous trouvons que seulement 5 facteurs dynamiques gouvernent l'instabilité temporelle dans presque 700 coefficients.

Évaluation de l’effet de faux souvenirs en vieillissement normal : validation de scores composites des fonctions temporale médiane et frontale et contribution aux hypothèses théoriques

L’avancement en âge est associé à plusieurs modifications cognitives, dont un déclin des capacités à mémoriser et/ou à rappeler les événements vécus personnellement. Il amène parallèlement une augmentation des faux souvenirs, c.-à-d. le rappel d’événements qui ne se sont pas réellement déroulés. Les faux souvenirs peuvent avoir d’importantes répercussions dans la vie quotidienne des personnes âgées et il importe donc de mieux comprendre ce phénomène en vieillissement normal. Des études ont démontré l’importance de la fonction des lobes temporaux médians (FTM)/mémoire et de la fonction des lobes frontaux (FF)/fonctions exécutives dans l’effet de faux souvenirs. Ainsi, la première étude de la thèse visait à valider en français une version adaptée d’une méthode proposée par Glisky, Polster, & Routhieaux (1995), permettant de mesurer ces fonctions cognitives (Chapitre 2). L’analyse factorielle de cette étude démontre que les scores neuropsychologiques associés à la mémoire se regroupent en un facteur, le facteur FTM/mémoire, alors que ceux associés aux fonctions exécutives se regroupent en un deuxième facteur, le facteur FF/fonctions exécutives. Des analyses « bootstrap » effectuées avec 1 000 ré-échantillons démontrent la stabilité des résultats pour la majorité des scores. La deuxième étude de cette thèse visait à éclairer les mécanismes cognitifs (FTM/mémoire et FF/fonctions exécutives) ainsi que théoriques de l’effet de faux souvenirs accru en vieillissement normal (Chapitre 3). La Théorie des Traces Floues (TTF; Brainerd & Reyna, 1990) propose des explications de l’effet de faux souvenirs pour lesquelles la FTM/mémoire semble davantage importante, alors que celles proposées par la Théorie de l’Activation et du Monitorage (TAM; Roediger, Balota, & Watson, 2001) sont davantage reliées à la FF/fonctions exécutives. Les tests neuropsychologiques mesurant la FTM/mémoire ainsi que ceux mesurant la FF/fonctions exécutives ont été administrés à 52 participants âgés (moyenne de 67,81 ans). Basé sur l’étude de validation précédente, un score composite de la FTM/mémoire et un score composite de la FF/fonctions exécutives ont été calculés pour chaque participant. Ces derniers ont d’abord été séparés en deux sous-groupes, un premier au score FTM/mémoire élevé (n = 29, âge moyen de 67,45 ans) et un deuxième au score FTM/mémoire faible (n = 23, âge moyen de 68,26 ans) en s’assurant de contrôler statistiquement plusieurs variables, dont le score de la FF/fonctions exécutives. Enfin, ces participants ont été séparés en deux sous-groupes, un premier au score FF/fonctions exécutives élevé (n = 26, âge moyen 68,08 ans) et un deuxième au score FF/fonctions exécutives faible (n = 25, âge moyen de 67,36 ans), en contrôlant les variables confondantes, dont le score de la FTM/mémoire. Les proportions de vraie et de fausse mémoire (cibles et leurres associatifs) ont été mesurées à l’aide d’un paradigme Deese-Roediger et McDermott (DRM; Deese, 1959; Roediger & McDermott, 1995), avec rappel et reconnaissance jumelée à une procédure « Je me souviens / Je sais » (Tulving, 1985) chez les 52 participants âgés ainsi que chez 22 jeunes (âge moyen de 24,59 ans), apparié pour les années de scolarité. D’abord, afin de tester l’hypothèse de la TTF (Brainerd & Reyna, 1990), ces proportions ont été comparées entre les jeunes adultes et les deux sous-groupes de personnes âgées catégorisées selon le score de la FTM/mémoire. Ensuite, afin de tester l’hypothèse de la TAM (Roediger et al., 2001), ces proportions ont été comparées entre les jeunes adultes et les deux sous-groupes de personnes âgées catégorisées selon le score de la FF/fonctions exécutives. Il s’agit de la première étude qui compare directement ces hypothèses à travers de nombreuses mesures de vraie et de fausse mémoire. Les résultats démontrent que seule la FTM/mémoire modulait l’effet d’âge en vraie mémoire, et de manière quelque peu indirecte, en fausse mémoire et dans la relation entre la vraie et la fausse remémoration. Ensuite, les résultats démontrent que seule la FF/fonctions exécutives jouerait un rôle dans la fausse reconnaissance des leurres associatifs. Par ailleurs, en des effets d’âge sont présents en faux rappel et fausse remémorations de leurres associatifs, entre les jeunes adultes et les personnes âgées au fonctionnement cognitif élevé, peu importe la fonction cognitive étudiée. Ces résultats suggèrent que des facteurs autres que la FTM/mémoire et la FF/fonctions exécutives doivent être identifiés afin d’expliquer la vulnérabilité des personnes âgées aux faux souvenirs. Les résultats de cette thèse sont discutés à la lumière des hypothèses théoriques et cognitives en faux souvenirs (Chapitre 4).

The factor structure of the Edinburgh postnatal depression scale in a South African peri-urban settlement

The factor structure of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression scale (EPDS) and similar instruments have received little attention in the literature. The researchers set out to investigate the construct validity and reliability of the EPDS amongst impoverished South African women. The EPDS was translated into isiXhosa (using Brislin's back translation method) and administered by trained interviewers to 147 women in Khayelitsha, South Africa. Responses were subjected to maximum likelihood confirmatory factor analysis. A single factor structure was found, consistent with the theory on which the EPDS was based. Internal consistency was satisfactory (a = 0.89).