Análise de acidez graxa como índice de qualidade em grãos de soja

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Pesquisa de Salmonella sp na cadeia produtiva de avestruzes no Sudeste do Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Agriculture, Energy and Health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago

This report analyses the agriculture, energy, and health sectors in Trinidad and Tobago to assess the potential economic impacts of climate change on the sectors. The fundamental aim of this report is to assist with the development of strategies to deal with the potential impact of climate change on Trinidad and Tobago. It also has the potential to provide essential input for identifying and preparing policies and strategies to help advance the Caribbean subregion closer to solving problems associated with climate change and attaining individual and regional sustainable development goals. Some of the key anticipated impacts of climate change for the Caribbean include elevated air and sea-surface temperatures, sea-level rise, possible changes in extreme events and a reduction in freshwater resources. The economic impact of climate change on the three sectors was estimated for the A2 and B2 IPCC scenarios until 2050. An exploration of various adaptation strategies was also undertaken for each sector using standard evaluation techniques. The study of the impact of climate change on the agriculture sector focused on root crops, green vegetables and fisheries. For these sectors combined, the cumulative loss under the A2 scenario is calculated as approximately B$2.24 and approximately B$1.72 under the B2 scenario by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. Given the potential for significant damage to the agriculture sector a large number of potential adaptation measures were considered. Out of these a short-list of 10 potential options were selected by applying 10 evaluation criteria. All of the adaptation strategies showed positive benefits. The analysis indicate that the options with the highest net benefits are: (1) Building on-farm water storage, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Using drip irrigation. Other attractive options include water harvesting. The policy decisions by governments should include these assessments, the omitted intangible benefits, as well as the provision of other social goals such as employment. The analysis of the energy sector has shown that the economic impact of climate change during 2011-2050 is similar under the A2 (US$142.88 million) and B2 (US$134.83 million) scenarios with A2 scenario having a slightly higher cost (0.737% of 2009 GDP) than the B2 scenario (0.695% of 2009 GDP) for the period. On the supply side, analyses indicate that Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector will be susceptible to the climate change policies of major energy-importing countries (the United States of America and China), and especially to their renewable energy strategies. Implementation of foreign oil substitution policy by the United States of America will result in a decline in Trinidad and Tobago’s Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) export (equivalent to 2.2% reduction in 2009 GDP) unless an alternative market is secured for the lost United States of America market. China, with its rapid economic growth and the highest population in the world, offers a potential replacement market for Trinidad and Tobago’s LNG export. In this context the A2 scenario will offer the best option for Trinidad and Tobago’s energy sector. The cost-benefit analysis undertaken on selected adaptation strategies reveal that the benefit-cost ratio of replacing electric water heaters with solar water heaters is the most cost-effective. It was also found that the introduction of Compact Fluorescent Light (CFL) and Variable Refrigerant Volume (VRV) air conditioners surpasses the projected cost of increased electricity consumption due to climate change, and provides an economic rationale for the adoption of these adaptation options even in a situation of increased electricity consumption occasioned by climate change. Finally, the conversion of motor fleets to Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) is a cost-effective adaptation option for the transport sector, although it has a high initial cost of implementation and the highest per capita among the four adaptation options evaluated. To investigate the effect of climate change on the health sector dengue fever, leptospirosis, food borne illnesses, and gastroenteritis were examined. The total number of new dengue cases for the period 2008 to 2050 was 204,786 for BAU, 153,725 for A2 and 131,890 for the B2 scenario. With regard to the results for leptospirosis, A2 and B2 seem to be following a similar path with total number of new cases in the A2 scenario being 9,727 and 9,218 cases under the B2 scenario. Although incidence levels in the BAU scenario coincided with those of A2 and B2 prior to 2020, they are somewhat lower post 2020. A similar picture emerges for the scenarios as they relate to food-borne illnesses and to gastroenteritis. Specifically for food-borne illnesses, the BAU scenario recorded 27,537 cases, the A2 recorded 28,568 cases and the B2 recorded 28,679 cases. The focus on the selected sources of morbidity in the health sector has highlighted the fact that the vulnerability of the country’s health sector to climate change does not depend solely on exogenously derived impacts, but also on the behaviour and practices among the population. It is clear that the vulnerability which became evident in the analysis of the impacts on dengue fever, leptospirosis and food-borne illnesses is not restricted solely to climate or other external factors. The most important adaptation strategy being recommended targets lifestyle, behaviour and attitude changes. The population needs to be encouraged to alter their behaviours and practices so as to minimise their exposure to harmful outcomes as it relates to the incidence of these diseases.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the agriculture sector in Trinidad And Tobago

The economic impact of climate change on root crop, fisheries and vegetable production for Trinidad and Tobago under the A2 and B2 scenarios were modeled, relative to a baseline ―no climate change‖ case, where the mean temperature and rainfall for a base period of 1980 – 2000 was assumed for the years up to 2050. Production functions were used, using ARMA specifications to correct for serial autocorrelation. For the A2 scenarios, rainfall is expected to fall by approximately 10% relative to the baseline case in the 2020s, but is expected to rise thereafter, until by the 2040s rainfall rises slightly above the mean for the baseline case. For the B2 scenario, rainfall rose slightly above the mean for the baseline case in the current decade, but falls steadily thereafter to approximately 15% by the 2040s. Over the same period, temperature is expected to increase by 1.34C and 1.37C under A2 and B2 respectively. It is expected that any further increase in rainfall should have a deleterious effect on root crop production as a whole, since the above mentioned crops represent the majority of the root crops included in the study. Further expected increases in temperature will result in the ambient temperature being very close to the optimal end of the range for most of these crops. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative losses (2008$) for root crops is expected to be approximately 248.8 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 239.4 million USD under the B2 scenario. Relative to the 2005 catch for fish, there will be a decrease in catch potential of 10 - 20% by 2050 relative to 2005 catch potentials, other things remaining constant. By 2050 under the A2 and B2 scenarios, losses in real terms were estimated to be 160.2 million USD and 80.1 million USD respectively, at a 1% discount rate. For vegetables, the mean rainfall exceeds the optimal rainfall range for sweet peppers, hot peppers and melongene. However, while the optimal rainfall level for tomatoes is 3000mm/yr, other vegetables such as sweet peppers, hot peppers and ochroes have very low rainfall requirements (as low as 300 mm/yr). Therefore it is expected that any further decrease in rainfall should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production. It is expected that any further increase in temperature should have a mixed effect on individual vegetable production, though model results indicated that as a group, an increase in temperature should have a positive impact on vegetable production. By 2050, the value of yield cumulative gains (2008$) for vegetables is expected to be approximately 54.9 million USD under the A2 scenario and approximately 49.1 million USD under the B2 scenario, given a 1% discount rate. For root crops, fisheries and vegetables combined, the cumulative loss under A2 is calculated as approximately 352.8 million USD and approximately 270.8 million USD under B2 by 2050. This is equivalent to 1.37% and 1.05% of the 2008 GDP under the A2 and B2 scenarios respectively by 2050. Sea Level Rise (SLR) by 2050 is estimated to be 0.255 m under A2 and 0.215 m under B2. GIS estimation indicated that for a 0.255 m sea level rise, combined with a 0.5 m high tide, there would be no permanent inundation of agricultural land in Trinidad. The total inundation area is 1.18 km2. This occurs only in the Caroni Watershed, on the western coast of Trinidad, and the areas are outside the Caroni Swamp. Even with an additional rise of 0.5 m to simulate a high rainfall event, the estimated inundated area is 4.67 km2, but with no permanent inundation, though likely to be subject to flooding. Based on eleven (11) evaluation criteria, the top potential adaptation options were identified: 1. Use of water saving irrigation systems and water management systems e.g. drip irrigation; 2. Mainstream climate change issues into agricultural management; 3. Repair/maintain existing dams; 4. Alter crop calendar for short-term crops; 5. Adopt improved technologies for soil conservation; 6. Establish systems of food storage; 7. Promote water conservation – install on-farm water harvesting off roof tops; 8. Design and implement holistic water management plans for all competing uses; 9. Build on- farm water storage (ponds and tanks); 10. Agricultural drainage; and 11. Installation of greenhouses. The most attractive adaptation options, based on the Benefit-Cost Ratio are: (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Water Harvesting. However, the options with the highest net benefits are, (in order of priority): (1) Build on- farm water storage such as ponds and tanks, (2) Mainstreaming climate change issues into agricultural management and (3) Use of drip irrigation. Based on the area burnt in Trinidad and Tobago between 2005 and 2009, the average annual loss due to fires is 1717.3 ha. At US$17.41 per carbon credit, this implies that for the total land lost to forest fires on average each year, the opportunity cost of carbon credit revenue is 74.3 million USD. If a teak reforestation programme is undertaken in Trinidad and Tobago, the net benefit of reforestation under a carbon credit programme would be 69 million USD cumulatively to 2050.

Toxicity on aquatic organisms exposed to secondary effluent disinfected with chlorine, peracetic acid, ozone and UV radiation

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Classification of intact açai (Euterpe oleracea Mart.) and jucara (Euterpe edulis Mart) fruits based on dry matter content by means of near infrared spectroscopy

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Short communication: Principal components and factor analytic models for test-day milk yield in Brazilian Holstein cattle

A total of 46,089 individual monthly test-day (TD) milk yields (10 test-days), from 7,331 complete first lactations of Holstein cattle were analyzed. A standard multivariate analysis (MV), reduced rank analyses fitting the first 2, 3, and 4 genetic principal components (PC2, PC3, PC4), and analyses that fitted a factor analytic structure considering 2, 3, and 4 factors (FAS2, FAS3, FAS4), were carried out. The models included the random animal genetic effect and fixed effects of the contemporary groups (herd-year-month of test-day), age of cow (linear and quadratic effects), and days in milk (linear effect). The residual covariance matrix was assumed to have full rank. Moreover, 2 random regression models were applied. Variance components were estimated by restricted maximum likelihood method. The heritability estimates ranged from 0.11 to 0.24. The genetic correlation estimates between TD obtained with the PC2 model were higher than those obtained with the MV model, especially on adjacent test-days at the end of lactation close to unity. The results indicate that for the data considered in this study, only 2 principal components are required to summarize the bulk of genetic variation among the 10 traits.

Dry spell mitigation to upgrade semi-arid rainfed agriculture : Water harvesting and soil nutrient management for smallholder maize cultivation in Machakos, Kenya

Improvements in on-farm water and soil fertility management through water harvesting may prove key to up-grade smallholder farming systems in dry sub-humid and semi-arid sub-Sahara Africa (SSA). The currently experienced yield levels are usually less than 1 t ha-1, i.e., 3-5 times lower than potential levels obtained by commercial farmers and researchers for similar agro-hydrological conditions. The low yield levels are ascribed to the poor crop water availability due to variable rainfall, losses in on-farm water balance and inherently low soil nutrient levels. To meet an increased food demand with less use of water and land in the region, requires farming systems that provide more yields per water unit and/or land area in the future. This thesis presents the results of a project on water harvesting system aiming to upgrade currently practised water management for maize (Zea mays, L.) in semi-arid SSA. The objectives were to a) quantify dry spell occurrence and potential impact in currently practised small-holder grain production systems, b) test agro-hydrological viability and compare maize yields in an on-farm experiment using combinations supplemental irrigation (SI) and fertilizers for maize, and c) estimate long-term changes in water balance and grain yields of a system with SI compared to farmers currently practised in-situ water harvesting. Water balance changes and crop growth were simulated in a 20-year perspective with models MAIZE1&2. Dry spell analyses showed that potentially yield-limiting dry spells occur at least 75% of seasons for 2 locations in semi-arid East Africa during a 20-year period. Dry spell occurrence was more frequent for crop cultivated on soil with low water-holding capacity than on high water-holding capacity. The analysis indicated large on-farm water losses as deep percolation and run-off during seasons despite seasonal crop water deficits. An on-farm experiment was set up during 1998-2001 in Machakos district, semi-arid Kenya. Surface run-off was collected and stored in a 300m3 earth dam. Gravity-fed supplemental irrigation was carried out to a maize field downstream of the dam. Combinations of no irrigation (NI), SI and 3 levels of N fertilizers (0, 30, 80 kg N ha-1) were applied. Over 5 seasons with rainfall ranging from 200 to 550 mm, the crop with SI and low nitrogen fertilizer gave 40% higher yields (**) than the farmers’ conventional in-situ water harvesting system. Adding only SI or only low nitrogen did not result in significantly different yields. Accounting for actual ability of a storage system and SI to mitigate dry spells, it was estimated that a farmer would make economic returns (after deduction of household consumption) between year 2-7 after investment in dam construction depending on dam sealant and labour cost used. Simulating maize growth and site water balance in a system of maize with SI increased annual grain yield with 35 % as a result of timely applications of SI. Field water balance changes in actual evapotranspiration (ETa) and deep percolation were insignificant with SI, although the absolute amount of ETa increased with 30 mm y-1 for crop with SI compared to NI. The dam water balance showed 30% productive outtake as SI of harvested water. Large losses due to seepage and spill-flow occurred from the dam. Water productivity (WP, of ETa) for maize with SI was on average 1 796 m3 per ton grain, and for maize without SI 2 254 m3 per ton grain, i.e, a decerase of WP with 25%. The water harvesting system for supplemental irrigation of maize was shown to be both biophysically and economically viable. However, adoption by farmers will depend on other factors, including investment capacity, know-how and legislative possibilities. Viability of increased water harvesting implementation in a catchment scale needs to be assessed so that other down-stream uses of water remains uncompromised.

Optimization of bioenergy solutions at different farm scales

RAF is a bio-energetic descriptive model integrates with MAD model to support Integrated Farm Management. RAF model aimed to enhancing economical, social and environmental sustainability of farm production in terms of energy via convert energy crops and animal manure to biogas and digestate (bio-fertilizers) by anaerobic digestion technologies, growing and breeding practices. The user defines farm structure in terms of present crops, livestock and market prices and RAF model investigates the possibilities of establish on-farm biogas system (different anaerobic digestion technologies proposed for different scales of farms in terms of energy requirements) according to budget and sustainability constraints to reduce the dependence on fossil fuels. The objective function of RAF (Z) is optimizing the total net income of farm (maximizing income and minimizing costs) for whole period which is considered by the analysis. The main results of this study refers to the possibility of enhancing the exploitation of the available Italian potentials of biogas production from on-farm production of energy crops and livestock manure feedstock by using the developed mathematical model RAF integrates with MAD to presents reliable reconcile between farm size, farm structure and on-farm biogas systems technologies applied to support selection, applying and operating of appropriate biogas technology at any farm under Italian conditions.

A field study on characteristics and diversity of gene expression in the liver of dairy cows during the transition period

Metabolic and endocrine adaptations to support milk production during the transition period vary between individual cows. This variation between cows to adapt to lactation may have a genetic basis. The present field study was carried out to determine hepatic adaptations occurring from late pregnancy through early lactation by measuring mRNA abundance of candidate genes in dairy cows on-farm. Additionally, the objective was to observe the diversity in inter-individual variation for the candidate genes that may give indications where individual adaptations at a molecular level can be found. This study was carried out on-farm including 232 dairy cows (parity >3) from 64 farms in Switzerland. Blood and liver samples were collected on d 20+/-7 before parturition, on d 24+/-2, and on d 89+/-4 after parturition. Blood plasma was assayed for concentrations of glucose, nonesterified fatty acids, beta-hydroxybutyrate, cholesterol, triglycerides, urea, albumin, protein, insulin, insulin-like growth factor-1, leptin, 3,5,3'-triiodothyronine, and thyroxine. Liver samples were obtained at the same time points and were measured for mRNA abundance of 26 candidate genes encoding enzymes and nuclear receptors involved in gluconeogenesis, fatty acid beta-oxidation, fatty acid and triglyceride synthesis, ketogenesis, citric acid cycle, cholesterol synthesis, and the urea cycle. The cows in the present study experienced a marked metabolic load in early lactation, as presented by changes in plasma metabolites and hormones, and responded accordingly with upregulation and downregulation of almost all candidate genes involved in metabolic processes in the liver. The observed inter-individual variation for the candidate genes, which was highest for acetyl-CoA-carboxylase and glycerol-3-phosphate dehydrogenase 2, should be further investigated to unravel the regulation at molecular level for optimal adaptive performance in dairy cows.

Comparison of genetic gains per year for carcass traits among breeding programs in the Japanese Brown and the Japanese Black cattle

The breeding program for beef cattle in Japan has changed dramatically over 4 decades. Visual judging was done initially, but progeny testing in test stations began in 1968. In the 1980s, the genetic evaluation program using field records, so-called on-farm progeny testing, was first adopted in Oita, Hyogo, and Kumamoto prefectures. In this study, genetic trends for carcass traits in these 3 Wagyu populations were estimated, and genetic gains per year were compared among the 3 different beef cattle breeding programs. The field carcass records used were collected between 1988 and 2003. The traits analyzed were carcass weight, LM area, rib thickness, s.c. fat thickness, and beef marbling standard number. The average breeding values of reproducing dams born the same year were used to estimate the genetic trends for the carcass traits. For comparison of the 3 breeding programs, birth years of the dams were divided into 3 periods reflecting each program. Positive genetic trends for beef marbling standard number were clearly shown in all populations. The genetic gains per year for all carcass traits were significantly enhanced by adopting the on-farm progeny testing program. These results indicate that the on-farm progeny testing program with BLUP is a very powerful approach for genetic improvement of carcass traits in Japanese Wagyu beef cattle.

Multicentre evaluation of a new point-of-care test for the determination of NT-proBNP in whole blood

BACKGROUND: The Roche CARDIAC proBNP point-of-care (POC) test is the first test intended for the quantitative determination of N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in whole blood as an aid in the diagnosis of suspected congestive heart failure, in the monitoring of patients with compensated left-ventricular dysfunction and in the risk stratification of patients with acute coronary syndromes. METHODS: A multicentre evaluation was carried out to assess the analytical performance of the POC NT-proBNP test at seven different sites. RESULTS: The majority of all coefficients of variation (CVs) obtained for within-series imprecision using native blood samples was below 10% for both 52 samples measured ten times and for 674 samples measured in duplicate. Using quality control material, the majority of CV values for day-to-day imprecision were below 14% for the low control level and below 13% for the high control level. In method comparisons for four lots of the POC NT-proBNP test with the laboratory reference method (Elecsys proBNP), the slope ranged from 0.93 to 1.10 and the intercept ranged from 1.8 to 6.9. The bias found between venous and arterial blood with the POC NT-proBNP method was < or =5%. All four lots of the POC NT-proBNP test investigated showed excellent agreement, with mean differences of between -5% and +4%. No significant interference was observed with lipaemic blood (triglyceride concentrations up to 6.3 mmol/L), icteric blood (bilirubin concentrations up to 582 micromol/L), haemolytic blood (haemoglobin concentrations up to 62 mg/L), biotin (up to 10 mg/L), rheumatoid factor (up to 42 IU/mL), or with 50 out of 52 standard or cardiological drugs in therapeutic concentrations. With bisoprolol and BNP, somewhat higher bias in the low NT-proBNP concentration range (<175 ng/L) was found. Haematocrit values between 28% and 58% had no influence on the test result. Interference may be caused by human anti-mouse antibodies (HAMA) types 1 and 2. No significant influence on the results with POC NT-proBNP was found using volumes of 140-165 muL. High NT-proBNP concentrations above the measuring range of the POC NT-proBNP test did not lead to false low results due to a potential high-dose hook effect. CONCLUSIONS: The POC NT-proBNP test showed good analytical performance and excellent agreement with the laboratory method. The POC NT-proBNP assay is therefore suitable in the POC setting.

An fMRI-study of locally oriented perception in autism: altered early visual processing of the block design test

Autism has been associated with enhanced local processing on visual tasks. Originally, this was based on findings that individuals with autism exhibited peak performance on the block design test (BDT) from the Wechsler Intelligence Scales. In autism, the neurofunctional correlates of local bias on this test have not yet been established, although there is evidence of alterations in the early visual cortex. Functional MRI was used to analyze hemodynamic responses in the striate and extrastriate visual cortex during BDT performance and a color counting control task in subjects with autism compared to healthy controls. In autism, BDT processing was accompanied by low blood oxygenation level-dependent signal changes in the right ventral quadrant of V2. Findings indicate that, in autism, locally oriented processing of the BDT is associated with altered responses of angle and grating-selective neurons, that contribute to shape representation, figure-ground, and gestalt organization. The findings favor a low-level explanation of BDT performance in autism.

Effects of fixed night shift work on 24 hour blood pressure regulation, state anxiety levels and total sleep time

Nearly 22 million Americans operate as shift workers, and shift work has been linked to the development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study is aimed at identifying pivotal risk factors of CVD by assessing 24 hour ambulatory blood pressure, state anxiety levels and sleep patterns in 12 hour fixed shift workers. We hypothesized that night shift work would negatively affect blood pressure regulation, anxiety levels and sleep patterns. A total of 28 subjects (ages 22-60) were divided into two groups: 12 hour fixed night shift workers (n=15) and 12 hour fixed day shift workers (n=13). 24 hour ambulatory blood pressure measurements (Space Labs 90207) were taken twice: once during a regular work day and once on a non-work day. State anxiety levels were assessed on both test days using the Speilberger’s State Trait Anxiety Inventory. Total sleep time (TST) was determined using self recorded sleep diary. Night shift workers demonstrated increases in 24 hour systolic (122 ± 2 to 126 ± 2 mmHg, P=0.012); diastolic (75 ± 1 to 79 ± 2 mmHg, P=0.001); and mean arterial pressures (90 ± 2 to 94 ± 2mmHg, P<0.001) during work days compared to off days. In contrast, 24 hour blood pressures were similar during work and off days in day shift workers. Night shift workers reported less TST on work days versus off days (345 ± 16 vs. 552 ± 30 min; P<0.001), whereas day shift workers reported similar TST during work and off days (475 ± 16 minutes to 437 ± 20 minutes; P=0.231). State anxiety scores did not differ between the groups or testing days (time*group interaction P=0.248), suggesting increased 24 hour blood pressure during night shift work is related to decreased TST, not short term anxiety. Our findings suggest that fixed night shift work causes disruption of the normal sleep-wake cycle negatively affecting acute blood pressure regulation, which may increase the long-term risk for CVD.

The European baseline series in 10 European Countries, 2005/2006--results of the European Surveillance System on Contact Allergies (ESSCA)

BACKGROUND: Continual surveillance based on patch test results has proved useful for the identification of contact allergy. OBJECTIVES: To provide a current view on the spectrum of contact allergy to important sensitizers across Europe. PATIENTS/METHODS: Clinical and patch test data of 19 793 patients patch tested in 2005/2006 in the 31 participating departments from 10 European countries (the European Surveillance System on Contact Allergies' (ESSCA) www.essca-dc.org) were descriptively analysed, aggregated to four European regions. RESULTS: Nickel sulfate remains the most common allergen with standardized prevalences ranging from 19.7% (central Europe) to 24.4% (southern Europe). While a number of allergens shows limited variation across the four regions, such as Myroxylon pereirae (5.3-6.8%), cobalt chloride (6.2-8.8%) or thiuram mix (1.7-2.4%), the differences observed with other allergens may hint on underlying differences in exposures, for example: dichromate 2.4% in the UK (west) versus 4.5-5.9% in the remaining EU regions, methylchloroisothiazolinone/methylisothiazolinone 4.1% in the South versus 2.1-2.7% in the remaining regions. CONCLUSIONS: Notwithstanding residual methodological variation (affecting at least some 'difficult' allergens) tackled by ongoing efforts for standardization, a comparative analysis as presented provides (i) a broad overview on contact allergy frequencies and (ii) interesting starting points for further, in-depth investigation.