Invasion, Proliferation and Control of Invasive Aquatic Plants in Colorado State Parks

Nonnative aquatic species are invasive worldwide. These species adversely affect natural aquatic ecosystems in a variety of ways and can negatively affect agriculture, recreation and industry. This study addresses identification and control of aquatic plant species of concern in Colorado State Parks. Seventeen species identified as potential threats to the parks and safe, effective chemical control methodologies were determined for each species. A matrix was developed to include the plants, appropriate chemical controls and the type of aquatic habitat where chemical use would be safe and effective. The matrix and recommendations for its use will be provided to the Colorado Division of Parks and Outdoor Recreation to develop a management plan under Section 1204 of the National Invasive Species Act.

Revisiting the synthetic control estimator

The synthetic control (SC) method has been recently proposed as an alternative to estimate treatment effects in comparative case studies. The SC relies on the assumption that there is a weighted average of the control units that reconstruct the potential outcome of the treated unit in the absence of treatment. If these weights were known, then one could estimate the counterfactual for the treated unit using this weighted average. With these weights, the SC would provide an unbiased estimator for the treatment effect even if selection into treatment is correlated with the unobserved heterogeneity. In this paper, we revisit the SC method in a linear factor model where the SC weights are considered nuisance parameters that are estimated to construct the SC estimator. We show that, when the number of control units is fixed, the estimated SC weights will generally not converge to the weights that reconstruct the factor loadings of the treated unit, even when the number of pre-intervention periods goes to infinity. As a consequence, the SC estimator will be asymptotically biased if treatment assignment is correlated with the unobserved heterogeneity. The asymptotic bias only vanishes when the variance of the idiosyncratic error goes to zero. We suggest a slight modification in the SC method that guarantees that the SC estimator is asymptotically unbiased and has a lower asymptotic variance than the difference-in-differences (DID) estimator when the DID identification assumption is satisfied. If the DID assumption is not satisfied, then both estimators would be asymptotically biased, and it would not be possible to rank them in terms of their asymptotic bias.

Bird exclusion and dispersal /

Caption title.

Structural change in macroeconomic time series: A complex systems perspective

We demonstrate that the process of generating smooth transitions Call be viewed as a natural result of the filtering operations implied in the generation of discrete-time series observations from the sampling of data from an underlying continuous time process that has undergone a process of structural change. In order to focus discussion, we utilize the problem of estimating the location of abrupt shifts in some simple time series models. This approach will permit its to address salient issues relating to distortions induced by the inherent aggregation associated with discrete-time sampling of continuous time processes experiencing structural change, We also address the issue of how time irreversible structures may be generated within the smooth transition processes. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Drifting blooms of the endemic filamentous brown alga Hincksia sordida at Noosa on the subtropical east Australian coast

Since 2002, the usually uncommon endemic filamentous brown alga Hincksia sordida (Harvey) Silva (Ectocarpales, Phaeophyta) has formed nuisance blooms annually during spring/early summer at Main Beach, Noosa on the subtropical east Australian coast. The Hincksia bloom coincides with the normally intensive recreational use of the popular bathing beach by the local population and tourists. The alga forms dense accumulations in the surf zone at Main Beach, giving the seawater a distinct brown coloration and deterring swimmers from entering the water. Decomposing algae stranded by receding tides emit a nauseating sulphurous stench which hangs over the beach. The stranded algal biomass is removed from the beach by bulldozers. During blooms, the usually crowded Main Beach is deserted, bathers preferring to use the many unaffected beaches on the Sunshine Coast to the south of Main Beach. The bloom worsens with north-easterly winds and is cleared from Noosa by south easterly winds, observations which have prompted the untenable proposal by local authorities that the bloom is forming offshore of Fraser Island in the South Pacific Ocean. The Noosa River estuarine system/Laguna Bay is the more probable source of the bloom and the nutrient inputs into this system must be substantial to generate the high bloom biomass. Current mitigation procedures of removing the blooming alga off the beach with bulldozers treat the symptom, not the cause and are proving ineffective. Environmental management must be based on science and the Noosa bloom would benefit greatly from the accurate ecological data on which to base management options. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Effects of iron additions on filament growth and productivity of the cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula

The bioavailability of iron, in combination with essential macronutrients such as phosphorus, has been hypothesised to be linked to nuisance blooms of the toxic cyanobacterium Lyngbya majuscula. The present laboratory study used two biological assay techniques to test whether various concentrations of added iron (inorganic and organically chelated) enhanced L. majuscula filament growth and productivity (C-14-bicarbonate uptake rate). Organically chelated iron (FeEDTA) with adequate background concentrations of phosphorus and molybdenum caused the largest increases (up to 4.5 times the control) in L. majuscula productivity and filament growth. The addition of inorganic iron (without added phosphorus or molybdenum) also stimulated L. majuscula filament growth. However, overall the FeEDTA was substantially and significantly more effective in promoting L. majuscula growth than inorganic iron (FeCl3). The organic chelator (EDTA) alone and molybdenum alone also enhanced L. majuscula growth but to a lesser extent than the chelated iron. The results of the present laboratory study support the hypothesis that iron and chelating organic compounds may be important in promoting blooms of L. majuscula in coastal waters of Queensland, Australia.

Raising rivals' fixed costs

This paper analyses the strategic use of fixed costs to deter entry or monopolize a market in a standard Cournot framework. First of all a general case shows how the presence of fixed costs can affect the possible equilibria to the Cournot game. It is shown that the presence of a firm with a first-mover advantage can have important implications if fixed costs are raised. In addition the forward induction process becomes important in determining plausible equilibria. The use of firstly regulation and secondly ‘nuisance’ law-suits are considered as strategies to increase fixed costs.

Factors affecting the growth of Cladophora in relation to river pollution

Nuisance growths of Cladophora have been associated with eutrophication. A review of the literature, however, reveals a scarcity of relevant experimental growth studies. Sampling experimental streams reveals that the addition of sewage effluent to good quality water alters the flora from that dominated by Potamogetan crispus to one dominated by CLadophora. Spatial and temporal differences in biomass of taxa present are discussed in the context of accompanying physicochemical data. In laboratory batch culture, growth of unialgal C. glomerata was accompanied by elevation of medium pH - considered largely responsible for the poor growth in such culture. However, appropriate experimental conditions and indices of growth were selected and the effects of various herbicides assessed. Diquat and terbutryne were shown to possess algicidal activity towards Cladophora. A closed continuous culture apparatus was developed: growth proceeded through lag, logarithmic and linear phases. Inoculum size and medium flow rate had significant effects on growth, and were standardized. In continuous culture, specific growth rate increased linearly with increased duration of light per day, up to 24 hours, and increased light intensity, up to 6000 lux - the highest intensity tested. Comparison of field and laboratory results suggests that ammonia toxicity is attributable to the undissociated form. In the laboratory, 185 µg/1 undissociated ammoniacal nitrogen reduced specific growth rate to 50% of that at 10 µg/1 undissociated ammcniacal nitrogen. 0.077-1.057 mg/1 NO2-N had no significant effect on growth. 7.2-15.2 mg/1 NO3-N had no significant effect on specific growth rate. Neither was any nitrate/phosphate interaction significant. At 4.9 mg/1 PO4-1, specific growth rate was only 48% of that at 1.9 g/1 P04-P. The critical medium PO4-P concentration was <0.1 mg/i. Specific growth rate was reduced to 50% of that in natural water by 0.036 mgCu/l, 0.070 mgzn/1 and 1.03 mgPb/l. Metal uptake was evaluated.

Ecological studies on river pollution control

This collection of papers records a series of studies, carried out over a period of some 50 years, on two aspects of river pollution control - the prevention of pollution by sewage biological filtration and the monitoring of river pollution by biological surveillance. The earlier studies were carried out to develop methods of controlling flies which bred in the filters and caused serious nuisance and possible public health hazard, when they dispersed to surrounding villages. Although the application of insecticides proved effective as an alleviate measure, because it resulted in only a temporary disturbance of the ecological balance, it was considered ecologically unsound as a long-term solution. Subsequent investigations showed that the fly populations in filters were largely determined by the amount of food available to the grazing larval stage in the form of filter film. It was also established that the winter deterioration in filter performance was due to the excessive accumulation of film. Subsequent investigations were therefore carried out to determine the factors responsible for the accumulation of film in different types of filter. Methods of filtration which were considered to control film accumulation by increasing the flushing action of the sewage, were found to control fungal film by creating nutrient limiting conditions. In some filters increasing the hydraulic flushing reduced the grazing fauna population in the surface layers and resulted in an increase in film. The results of these investigations were successfully applied in modifying filters and in the design of a Double Filtration process. These studies on biological filters lead to the conclusion that they should be designed and operated as ecological systems and not merely as hydraulic ones. Studies on the effects of sewage effluents on Birmingham streams confirmed the findings of earlier workers justifying their claim for using biological methods for detecting and assessing river pollution. Further ecological studies showed the sensitivity of benthic riffle communities to organic pollution. Using experimental channels and laboratory studies the different environmental conditions associated with organic pollution were investigated. The degree and duration of the oxygen depletion during the dark hours were found to be a critical factor. The relative tolerance of different taxa to other pollutants, such as ammonia, differed. Although colonisation samplers proved of value in sampling difficult sites, the invertebrate data generated were not suitable for processing as any of the commonly used biotic indexes. Several of the papers, which were written by request for presentation at conferences etc., presented the biological viewpoint on river pollution and water quality issues at the time and advocated the use of biological methods. The information and experiences gained in these investigations was used as the "domain expert" in the development of artificial intelligence systems for use in the biological surveillance of river water quality.

Does competitive entry structurally change key marketing metrics?

To what extent does competitive entry create a structural change in key marketing metrics? New players may just be a temporal nuisance to incumbents, but could also fundamentally change the latter's performance evolution, or induce them to permanently alter their spending levels and/or pricing decisions. Similarly, the addition of a new marketing channel could permanently shift shopping preferences, or could just create a short-lived migration from existing channels. The steady-state impact of a given entry or channel addition on various marketing metrics is intrinsically an empirical issue for which we need an appropriate testing procedure. In this study, we introduce a testing sequence that allows for the endogenous determination of potential change (break) locations, thereby accounting for lead and/or lagged effects of the introduction of interest. By not restricting the number of potential breaks to one (as is commonly done in the marketing literature), we quantify the impact of the new entrant(s) while controlling for other events that may have taken place in the market. We illustrate the methodology in the context of the Dutch television advertising market, which was characterized by the entry of several late movers. We find that the steady-state growth of private incumbents' revenues was slowed by the quasi-simultaneous entry of three new players. Contrary to industry observers' expectations, such a slowdown was not experienced in the related markets of print and radio advertising.

Making Multiple Decisions Adaptively

The asymptotic behavior of multiple decision procedures is studied when the underlying distributions depend on an unknown nuisance parameter. An adaptive procedure must be asymptotically optimal for each value of this nuisance parameter, and it should not depend on its value. A necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of such a procedure is derived. Several examples are investigated in detail, and possible lack of adaptation of the traditional overall maximum likelihood rule is discussed.

The United States Congress and Venezuela's Hugo Chávez

The Soviet Union's dissolution in December 1991 marks the end of the Cold War and the elimination of the United States' main rival for global political-economic leadership. For decades U.S. foreign policymakers had formulated policies aimed at containing the spread of Soviet communism and Moscow's interventionist policies in the Americas. They now assumed that Latin American leftist revolutionary upheavals could also be committed to history. This study explores how Congress takes an active role in U.S. foreign policymaking when dealing with revolutionary changes in Latin America. This study finds that despite Chávez's vitriolic statements and U.S. economic vulnerability due to its dependence on foreign oil sources, Congress today sees Chávez as a nuisance and not a threat to U.S. vital interests. Devoid of an extra-hemispheric, anti-American patron intent on challenging the United States for regional leadership, Chávez is seen by Congress largely as a threat to the stability of Venezuela's institutions and political-economic stability. Today both the U.S. executive and the legislative branches largely see Bolivarianism a distraction and not an existential threat. The research is based on an examination of Bolivarian Venezuela compared to revolutionary upheaval and governance in Nicaragua over the course of the twentieth century. This project is largely descriptive, qualitative in approach, but quantitative data are used when appropriate. To analyze both the U.S. executive and legislative branches' reaction to revolutionary change, Cole Blasier's theoretical propositions as developed in the Hovering Giant: U.S. Responses to Revolutionary Change in Latin America 1910-1985 are utilized. The present study highlights the fact that Blasier's propositions remain a relevant means for analyzing U.S. foreign policymaking.

Potential role of sponge communities in controlling phytoplankton blooms in Florida Bay

An unprecedented series of ecological disturbances have been recurring within Florida Bay since the summer of 1987. Persistent and widespread phytoplankton and cyanobacteria blooms have coincided with the large scale decimation of sponge communities. One hypothesis is that the large scale loss of suspension-feeding sponges has rendered the Florida Bay ecosystem susceptible to these recurring blooms. The primary objective of this study was to experimentally evaluate the potential for suspension-feeding sponges to control nuisance phytoplankton blooms within Florida Bay prior to a large sponge die-off event. To achieve this objective, we determined the extent and biomass of the surviving sponge community in the different basins of Florida Bay. Many areas within Florida Bay possessed sponge densities and biomasses of 1 to 3 ind. m–2 or 100 to 300 g m–2 respectively. The dominant species includedSpheciospongia vesparia, Chondrilla nucula, Cinachyra alloclada, Tedania ignis and Ircinia sp., which accounted for 68% of individual sponges observed and 88% of sponge biomass. Laboratory grazing rates of these dominant sponges were experimentally determined on 4 different algal food treatments: a monoculture of cyanobacteria Synechococcus elongatus, a monoculture of the diatom Cyclotella choctawhatcheeana, a monoculture of the dinoflagellate Prorocentrum hoffmanianum, and an equal volume of the 3 monocultures combined. To estimate the impact of a mass sponge mortality event on the system-wide filtration rate of Florida Bay, we combined estimates of the current sponge biomass and laboratory sponge filtration rates with estimates of mean volumes of the sub-basins of Florida Bay. This study implies that the current blooms occurring within the central region of Florida Bay can be explained by the loss of the dominant suspension feeder in this system, and there is no need to invoke a new addition of nutrients within this region for the blooms to occur.

The United States Congress and Venezuela's Hugo Chávez

The Soviet Union's dissolution in December 1991 marks the end of the Cold War and the elimination of the United States' main rival for global political-economic leadership. For decades U.S. foreign policymakers had formulated policies aimed at containing the spread of Soviet communism and Moscow's interventionist policies in the Americas. They now assumed that Latin American leftist revolutionary upheavals could also be committed to history. This study explores how Congress takes an active role in U.S. foreign policymaking when dealing with revolutionary changes in Latin America. This study finds that despite Chavez's vitriolic statements and U.S. economic vulnerability due to its dependence on foreign oil sources, Congress today sees Chavez as a nuisance and not a threat to U.S. vital interests. Devoid of an extra-hemispheric, anti-American patron intent on challenging the United States for regional leadership, Chavez is seen by Congress largely as a threat to the stability of Venezuela's institutions and political-economic stability. Today both the U.S. executive and the legislative branches largely see Bolivarianism a distraction and not an existential threat. The research is based on an examination of Bolivarian Venezuela compared to revolutionary upheaval and governance in Nicaragua over the course of the twentieth century. This project is largely descriptive, qualitative in approach, but quantitative data are used when appropriate. To analyze both the U.S. executive and legislative branches' reaction to revolutionary change, Cole Blasier's theoretical propositions as developed in the Hovering Giant: U.S. Responses to Revolutionary Change in Latin America 1910- 1985 are utilized. The present study highlights the fact that Blasier's propositions remain a relevant means for analyzing U.S. foreign policymaking.

Sedimentology of cores from the Iberian margin

Bioturbation in marine sediments has basically two aspects of interest for palaeo-environmental studies. First, the traces left by the burrowing organisms reflect the prevailing environmental conditions at the seafloor and thus can be used to reconstruct the ecologic and palaeoceanographic situation. Traces have the advantage over other proxies of practically always being preserved in situ. Secondly, for high- resolution stratigraphy, bioturbation is a nuisance due to the stirring and mixing processes that destroy the stratigraphic record. In order to evaluate the applicability of biogenic traces as palaeoenvironmental indicators, a number of gravity cores from the Portuguese continental slope, covering the period from the last glacial to the present were investigated through X-ray radiographs. In addition, physical and chemical parameters were determined to define the environmental niche in each core interval. A number of traces could be recognized, the most important being: Thalassinoides, Planolites, Zoophycos, Chondrites, Scolicia, Palaeophycus, Phycosiphon and the generally pyritized traces Trichichnus and Mycellia. The shifts between the different ichnofabrics agree strikingly well with the variations in ocean circulation caused by the changing climate. On the upper and middle slope, variations in current intensity and oxygenation of the Mediterranean Outflow Water were responsible for shifts in the ichnofabric. Larger traces such as Planolites and Thalassinoides dominated in coarse, well oxygenated intervals, while small traces such as Chondrites and Trichichnus dominated in fine grained, poorly oxygenated intervals. In contrast, on the lower slope where calm steady sedimentation conditions prevail, changes in sedimentation rate and nutrient flux have controlled variations in the distribution of larger traces such as Planolites, Thalassinoides, and Palaeophycus. Additionally, distinct layers of abundant Chondrites correspond to Heinrich events 1, 2, and 4, and are interpreted as a response to incursions of nutrient rich, oxygen depleted Antarctic waters during phases of reduced thermohaline circulation. The results clearly show that not one single factor but a combination of several factors is necessary to explain the changes in ichnofabric. Furthermore, large variations in the extent and type of bioturbation and tiering between different settings clearly show that a more detailed knowledge of the factors governing bioturbation is necessary if we shall fully comprehend how proxy records are disturbed. A first attempt to automatize a part of the recognition and quantification of the ichnofabric was performed using the DIAna image analysis program on digitized X-ray radiographs. The results show that enhanced abundance of pyritized microburrows appears to be coupled to organic rich sediments deposited under dysoxic conditions. Coarse grained sediments inhibit the formation of pyritized burrows. However, the smallest changes in program settings controlling the grey scale threshold and the sensitivity resulted in large shifts in the number of detected burrows. Therefore, this method can only be considered to be semi-quantitative. Through AMS-^C dating of sample pairs from the Zoophycos spreiten and the surrounding host sediment, age reversals of up to 3,320 years could be demonstrated for the first time. The spreiten material is always several thousands of years younger than the surrounding host sediment. Together with detailed X-ray radiograph studies this shows that the trace maker collects the material on the seafloor, and then transports it downwards up to more than one meter in to the underlying sediment where it is deposited in distinct structures termed spreiten. This clearly shows that age reversals of several thousands of years can be expected whenever Zoophycos is unknowingly sampled. These results also render the hitherto proposed ethological models proposed for Zoophycos as largely implausible. Therefore, a combination of detritus feeding, short time caching, and hibernation possibly combined also with gardening, is suggested here as an explanation for this complicated burrow.