Decision curve analysis revisited: overall net benefit, relationships to ROC curve analysis, and application to case-control studies.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Decision curve analysis has been introduced as a method to evaluate prediction models in terms of their clinical consequences if used for a binary classification of subjects into a group who should and into a group who should not be treated. The key concept for this type of evaluation is the "net benefit", a concept borrowed from utility theory. METHODS: We recall the foundations of decision curve analysis and discuss some new aspects. First, we stress the formal distinction between the net benefit for the treated and for the untreated and define the concept of the "overall net benefit". Next, we revisit the important distinction between the concept of accuracy, as typically assessed using the Youden index and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and the concept of utility of a prediction model, as assessed using decision curve analysis. Finally, we provide an explicit implementation of decision curve analysis to be applied in the context of case-control studies. RESULTS: We show that the overall net benefit, which combines the net benefit for the treated and the untreated, is a natural alternative to the benefit achieved by a model, being invariant with respect to the coding of the outcome, and conveying a more comprehensive picture of the situation. Further, within the framework of decision curve analysis, we illustrate the important difference between the accuracy and the utility of a model, demonstrating how poor an accurate model may be in terms of its net benefit. Eventually, we expose that the application of decision curve analysis to case-control studies, where an accurate estimate of the true prevalence of a disease cannot be obtained from the data, is achieved with a few modifications to the original calculation procedure. CONCLUSIONS: We present several interrelated extensions to decision curve analysis that will both facilitate its interpretation and broaden its potential area of application.

Pachycondyla obscuricornis as natural enemy of the spittlebug Deois flavopicta

The objective of this work was to evaluate the potential control of the ant Pachycondyla obscuricornis Emery (Hymenoptera Formicidae) on populations of nymphs of the spittlebug, Deois flavopicta Stal (Hemiptera Cercopidae). Foraging behavior and prey consumption rate of P. obscuricornis were evaluated. Field data revealed that P. obscuricornis does not show aggressive behavior against individuals of the same species, when they are not carrying a prey; they can patrol distances larger than 10 m searching for prey, and they can build their nest as close as 1 m from each other. The ant has a solitary patrolling habit, there is no recruitment behavior, and individuals dislocate fast, browsing on soil and vegetation for prey. Predation rate on spittlebug nymphs increased relative to the spittlebug abundance, reaching 93.8% of captured prey. Pachycondyla obscuricornis is a voracious predator and may control the population of spittlebugs in cultivated pastures.

Oxygen isotope sector zoning in natural hydrothermal quartz

Oxygen isotope measurements using SIMS and laser-fluorination methods confirm the presence of concentric and sector zoning in low-temperature (200 degrees C to < 400 degrees C) hydrothermal quartz from Alpine veins. While concentric zoning is most readily explained by changes in the chemical composition of the fluid or temperature of crystallization, the reasons for sector zoning are more difficult to explain. Relative enrichment in (18)O for crystallographically different sectors of quartz corresponds to m > r > z. Sector zoning is, however, largely limited to the exterior zones of crystals and/or to crystals with large Al (> 1000 ppm) and trace element contents, probably formed at temperatures < 250 degrees C. Differences in delta(18)O between the prismatic (m) relative to the rhombohedral (r and z) growth sectors of up to 2 parts per thousand can be explained by a combination of a face-related crystallographic and/or a growth rate control. In contrast, isotopic sector zoning of up to about 1.5 parts per thousand amongst the different rhombohedral faces increases in parallel with the trace element content and is likely to represent disequilibrium growth. This is indicated by non-systematic, up to 2 parts per thousand, differences within single growth zones and the irregular, larger or smaller, delta(18)O values (of several permil) of the exterior compared to the inner zones of the same crystals. Disequilibrium growth may be related to the large trace element content incorporated into the growing quartz at lower temperatures (< 250 degrees C) and/or be related to fluid-vapour separation, allowing crystal growth from both a vapour as well as a liquid phase.

Disseny d'un sistema de control del consum d'aigua automàtic

Avui en dia s’ha convertit en una necessitat tenir cura del medi ambient i optimitzar els recursos naturals. En el camp per estalviar energia s’han fet grans progressos i disposem d’un gran ventall de dispositius que ens ajuden i ens faciliten l’optimització del consum d’energia. Però és una realitat que en l’estalvi del consum d’aigua el progrés ha estat molt menor i es limita molt a donar consells i repartir dosificadors d’aigua. Qui no ha vist carrers o jardins o cases inundades amb milers de litres d’aigua? Aquesta realitat m’ha portat a dissenyar i desenvolupar un prototip que em permeti tenir un millor control del consum d’aigua. El prototip, a trets principals, consta d’un sensor, una electrovàlvula i una placa Arduino Atmega. El sensor ens permet mesurar els litres consumits durant un cert període de temps. Passat aquest temps de mostreig es compara els litres consumits amb el consum habitual, en aquell període de temps. En cas de sobrepassar el volum programat es tancarà l’electrovàlvula de forma automàtica i rebrem un SMS al telèfon. L’activació de l’alarma es pot ajustar que sigui al igualar-se els dos valors, litres programats i litres consumits. També es pot programar el percentatge que cal sobrepassar de litres consumits per activar l’alarma, com el temps de mostreig. El fet de poder programar tots aquests valors ens permet fer un ajust ideal per a la instal·lació que es vol tenir controlada. A més, el prototip es pot utilitzar per enviar a la companyia d’aigua el valor del comptador de forma automàtica. D’aquesta forma la companyia d’aigua també optimitza recursos estalviant-se el desplaçament de personal a la instal·lació per fer la lectura corresponent. El prototip està basat amb un Arduino Atmega que ens permet el processament de les dades programades i capturades pel sensor. També s’ha incorporat una pantalla TFT Touch 2’8”, que permet visualitzar i programar els valors d’una forma molt més intuïtiva. Per enviar els SMS s’utilitza una placa d’Arduino Cel·lular Shield - SM5100B, a la qual només cal afegir una targeta SIM. A priori, el prototip té un elevat cost al fabricar una sola unitat i pot semblar poc útil. Però ens pot estalviar alguna sorpresa en les factures d’aigua si tenim una fuita i no ens n’adonem fins a veure el rebut de la companyia. Si es fabriqués a grans quantitats es podria abaratir el preu i fer-lo encara més engrescador.

Regulation of mucoidy in the biological control agent Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0 and construction of an exopolysaccharide-overproducing variant

Pseudomonas fluorescens CHA0, an effective biological control agent of soilborne plant diseases, is naturally non-mucoid. We have isolated a highly mucoid Tn5 insertion mutant of strain CHA0. The mucoid phenotype was found to be due to the overproduction of exopolysaccharide (EPS), as a result of a mutation in the mucA gene. The wild-type mucA gene was cloned by a two-step, Tn5-dependent cloning procedure previously described and the deduced amino acid sequence showed 71% identity with MucA of P. aeruginosa, a negative regulator of the alternative sigma factor AlgU (=s22, sE). As in P. aeruginosa, mucA is preceded by the algU gene encoding s22 (91% identity at the amino acid sequence level). A mucA in-frame deletion mutant of CHA0 overproduced EPS and formed mucoid colonies, whereas an algU in-frame deletion mutant showed a non-mucoid phenotype. Pyoluteorin, an antibiotic produced by P. fluorescens, was found to be entrapped in EPS of a mucoid mutant. In natural soil, mucoidy negatively affected survival of the bacteria, suggesting that under these conditions the potential to produce abundant EPS does not confer a selective advantage on the bacteria.

A new method to simulate the hydrological state of soil under natural conditions

Micro, macro and mesofauna in the soil often respond to fluctuating environmental conditions, resulting in changes of abundance and community structure. Effects of changing soil parameters are normally determined with samples taken in the field and brought to the laboratory, i.e. where natural environmental conditions may not apply. We devised a method (STAFD - soil tubes for artificial flood and drought), which simulates the hydrological state of soil in situ using implanted cores. Control tubes were compared with treatment tubes in which floods of 15, 30, 60 and 90 days, and droughts of 60, 90 and 120 days were simulated in the field. Flooding and drought were found to reduce number of individuals in all soil faunal groups, but the response to drought was slower and not in proportion to the expected decrease of the water content. The results of the simulated floods in particular show the value of the STAFD method for the investigation of such extreme events in natural habitats.

Egg parasitoid wasps as natural enemies of the neotropical stink bug Dichelops melacanthus

The objective of this work was to determine the potential of five species of Scelionidae wasps - Telenomus podisi, Trissolcus basalis, Trissolcus urichi, Trissolcus teretis and Trissolcus brochymenae - as natural enemies of the neotropical stink bug Dichelops melacanthus, and to determine if the presence of eggs of other stink bug species influences the parasitism and development of the parasitoids. Two kinds of experiments were done in laboratory: without choice of hosts (eggs of D. melacanthus) and with choice (eggs of D. melacanthus and of Euschistus heros). Biological parameters, including proportion of parasitism, immature survivorship, progeny sex ratio, immature stage development period, and host preference were recorded. All the evaluated parasitoids can parasitize and develop on D. melacanthus eggs. The first choice of eggs did not influence the proportion of D. melacanthus eggs parasitized by Tr. basalis, Tr. teretis or Tr. brochymenae. However, D. melacanthus eggs as the first choice of Te. podisi and Tr. urichi increased, respectively, 9 and 14 times the chance for parasitism on eggs of this species. Behavioral and ecological aspects of parasitoids should be considered prior to their use in biological control programs.

PRDM1 is a tumor suppressor gene in natural killer cell malignancies.

Natural killer cell lymphoma (NKCL) constitutes a rare and aggressive form of non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and there is little insight into its pathogenesis. Here we show that PRDM1 is a tumor suppressor gene in NKCLs that is inactivated by a combination of monoallelic deletion and promoter CpG island hypermethylation. We observed monoallelic deletion of PRDM1 loci in 8 of 18 (44%) NKCL cases. The other allele showed significant promoter methylation in 12 of 17 (71%) cases. In support of its role as a tumor suppressor gene, the reconstitution of PRDM1 in PRDM1-null NK cell lines led to G2/M cell cycle arrest, increased apoptosis, and a strong negative selection pressure with progressive elimination of PRDM1-expressing cells, which was enhanced when IL-2 concentration is limiting. We observed a progressive increase in PRDM1 expression-in particular, PRDM1α-in normal NK cells in response to IL-2 and in normal NK cells activated with an engineered NK cell target, K562-Cl9-mb21, suggesting its role in NK cell homeostasis. In support of this role, knockdown of PRDM1 by shRNA in normal NK cells resulted in the positive selection of these cells. We identified MYC and 4-1BBL as targets of PRDM1 in NK cells. Disruption of homeostatic control by PRDM1 may be an important pathogenetic mechanism for NKCL.

Inheritance of late flowering in natural variants of soybean cultivars under short-day conditions

The objective of this work was to determine the inheritance of the long juvenile period trait in natural variants of the Doko, BR 9 (Savana), Davis, Embrapa 1 (IAS 5RC), and BR 16 soybean cultivars. Complete diallel crosses were made between the Doko and BR 16 cultivars and their variants. A 3:1 segregation ratio was observed in the F2 populations of the 'Doko' x Doko-18T, 'Doko' x Doko-Milionária, 'Davis' x São Carlos, and 'BR 9 (Savana)' x MABR92-836 (Savanão) crosses, indicating that the long juvenile period trait is controlled by a pair of recessive genes. The difference in late flowering between the Doko cultivar and both of its variants was caused by a recessive spontaneous mutation at the same genetic locus. However, the variants Doko-18T and Doko-Milionária are identical mutants that share a pair of genes that control the long juvenile period under short-day conditions. These mutants can be used in breeding programs to develop cultivars adapted to low-latitude tropical regions.

Prediction of soil shear strength in agricultural and natural environments of the Brazilian Cerrado

The objective of this work was to develop uni- and multivariate models to predict maximum soil shear strength (τmax) under different normal stresses (σn), water contents (U), and soil managements. The study was carried out in a Rhodic Haplustox under Cerrado (control area) and under no-tillage and conventional tillage systems. Undisturbed soil samples were taken in the 0.00-0.05 m layer and subjected to increasing U and σn, in shear strength tests. The uni- and multivariate models - respectively τmax=10(a+bU) and τmax=10(a+bU+cσn) - were significant in all three soil management systems evaluated and they satisfactorily explain the relationship between U, σn, and τmax. The soil under Cerrado has the highest shear strength (τ) estimated with the univariate model, regardless of the soil water content, whereas the soil under conventional tillage shows the highest values with the multivariate model, which were associated to the lowest water contents at the soil consistency limits in this management system.

Pla de prevenció d’incendis forestals del Parc Natural de la Serra de Montsant

L’estudi dels incendis històrics permet identificar la tipología d’incendis presents en l’àmbit d’estudi, i es determinen unes regions d’incendi sobre les quals s’establiran infraestructures estratègiques i zones de gestió de combustible per minimitzar l’efecte d’aquesta pertorbació i dotar d’oportunitats a l’extinció per tal de que aquests incendis no esdevinguin Grans Incendis Forestals (GIF).

Survival of wild adults of Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) under natural winter conditions in north east Spain

The overwintering of the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly), Ceratitis capitata (Wiedemann) at the northern limits of its geographic distribution is not yet well known. With the aim of estimating the survival rate of medfly adults in northeast Spain under natural winter conditions, a two-winter-season trial was carried out. A control was carried out in a climatic chamber at 25°C. The results showed that medfly adults were unable to survive the entire winter season in the Girona area. Climatic conditions, including the daily minimum temperature, daily maximum temperature and the high rainfall, appeared to be involved in adult mortality in winter.

Natural vitamin C intake and the risk of head and neck cancer : a pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology Consortium

Evidence of associations between single nutrients and head and neck cancer (HNC) is still more limited and less consistent than that for fruit and vegetables. However, clarification of the protective mechanisms of fruit and vegetables is important to our understanding of HNC etiology. We investigated the association between vitamin C intake from natural sources and cancer of the oral cavity/pharynx and larynx using individual-level pooled data from ten case-control studies (5,959 cases and 12,248 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium. After harmonization of study-specific exposure information via the residual method, adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional multiple logistic regression models on quintile categories of 'non-alcohol energy-adjusted' vitamin C intake. In the presence of heterogeneity of the estimated ORs among studies, we derived those estimates from generalized linear mixed models. Higher intakes of vitamin C were inversely related to oral and pharyngeal (OR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.45-0.65, for the fifth quintile category versus the first one, p for trend<0.001) and laryngeal cancers (OR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.40-0.68, p for trend = 0.006), although in the presence of heterogeneity among studies for both sites. Inverse associations were consistently observed for the anatomical subsites of oral and pharyngeal cancer, and across strata of age, sex, education, body mass index, tobacco, and alcohol, for both cancer sites. The inverse association of vitamin C intake from foods with HNC may reflect a protective effect on these cancers; however, we cannot rule out other explanations.

Vitamin E intake from natural sources and head and neck cancer risk : a pooled analysis in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology consortium.

BACKGROUND: Evidence for the possible effect of vitamin E on head and neck cancers (HNCs) is limited. METHODS: We used individual-level pooled data from 10 case-control studies (5959 cases and 12 248 controls) participating in the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) consortium to assess the association between vitamin E intake from natural sources and cancer of the oral cavity/pharynx and larynx. Adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression models applied to quintile categories of nonalcohol energy-adjusted vitamin E intake. RESULTS: Intake of vitamin E was inversely related to oral/pharyngeal cancer (OR for the fifth vs the first quintile category=0.59, 95% CI: 0.49-0.71; P for trend <0.001) and to laryngeal cancer (OR=0.67, 95% CI: 0.54-0.83, P for trend <0.001). There was, however, appreciable heterogeneity of the estimated effect across studies for oral/pharyngeal cancer. Inverse associations were generally observed for the anatomical subsites of oral and pharyngeal cancer and within covariate strata for both sites. CONCLUSION: Our findings suggest that greater vitamin E intake from foods may lower HNC risk, although we were not able to explain the heterogeneity observed across studies or rule out certain sources of bias.

Nutrient enrichment and water depth modify consumer control in rocky shore macroalgal communities

The objective of my thesis is to assess mechanisms of ecological community control in macroalgal communities in the Baltic Sea. In the top-down model, predatory fish feed on invertebrate mesograzers, releasing algae partly from grazing pressure. Such a reciprocal relationship is called trophic cascade. In the bottom-up model, nutrients increase biomass in the food chain. The nutrients are first assimilated by algae and, via food chain, increase also abundance of grazers and predators. Previous studies on oceanic shores have described these two regulative mechanisms in the grazer - alga link, but how they interact in the trophic cascades from fish to algae is still inadequately known. Because the top-down and bottom-up mechanisms are predicted to depend on environmental disturbances, such as wave stress and light, I have studied these models at two distinct water depths. There are five factorial field experiments behind the thesis, which were all conducted in the Finnish Archipelago Sea. In all the experiments, I studied macroalgal colonization - either density, filament length or biomass - on submerged colonization substrates. By excluding predatory fish and mesograzers from the algal communities, the studies compared the strength of the top-down control to natural algal communities. A part of the experimental units were, in addition, exposed to enriched nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations, which enabled testing of bottom-up control. These two models of community control were further investigated in shallow (<1 m) and deep (ca. 3 m) water. Moreover, the control mechanisms were also expected to depend on grazer species. Therefore different grazer species were enclosed into experimental units and their impacts on macroalgal communities were followed specifically. The community control in the Baltic rocky shores was found to follow theoretical predictions, which have not been confirmed by field studies before. Predatory fish limited grazing impact, which was seen as denser algal communities and longer algal filaments. Nutrient enrichment increased density and filament length of annual algae and, thus, changed the species composition of the algal community. The perennial alga Fucus vesiculosusA and the red alga Ceramium tenuicorne suffered from the increased nutrient availabilities. The enriched nutrient conditions led to denser grazer fauna, thereby causing strong top-down control over both the annual and perennial macroalgae. The strength of the top-down control seemed to depend on the density and diversity of grazers and predators as well as on the species composition of macroalgal assemblages. The nutrient enrichment led to, however, weaker limiting impact of predatory fish on grazer fauna, because fish stocks did not respond as quickly to enhanced resources in the environment as the invertebrate fauna. According to environmental stress model, environmental disturbances weaken the top-down control. For example, on a wave-exposed shore, wave stress causes more stress to animals close to the surface than deeper on the shore. Mesograzers were efficient consumers at both the depths, while predation by fish was weaker in shallow water. Thus, the results supported the environmental stress model, which predicts that environmental disturbance affects stronger the higher a species is in the food chain. This thesis assessed the mechanisms of community control in three-level food chains and did not take into account higher predators. Such predators in the Baltic Sea are, for example, cormorant, seals, white-tailed sea eagle, cod and salmon. All these predatory species were recently or are currently under intensive fishing, hunting and persecution, and their stocks have only recently increased in the region. Therefore, it is possible that future densities of top predators may yet alter the strengths of the controlling mechanisms in the Baltic littoral zone.