CART application to image primitives tracking

[EN] [EN] In this paper we present a new method for image primitives tracking based on a CART (Classification and Regression Tree). Primitives tracking procedure uses lines and circles as primitives. We have applied the proposed method to sport event scenarios, specifically, soccer matches. We estimate CART parameters using a learning procedure based on RGB image channels. In order to illustrate its performance, it has been applied to real HD (High Definition) video sequences and some numerical experiments are shown. The quality of the primitives tracking with the decision tree is validated by the percentage error rates obtained and the comparison with other techniques as a morphological method. We also present applications of the proposed method to camera calibration and graphic object insertion in real video sequences.

Benchmarking in the SWISSspine registry: results of 52 Dynardi lumbar total disc replacements compared with the data pool of 431 other lumbar disc prostheses

The SWISSspine registry is the first mandatory registry of its kind in the history of Swiss orthopaedics and it follows the principle of "coverage with evidence development". Its goal is the generation of evidence for a decision by the Swiss federal office of health about reimbursement of the concerned technologies and treatments by the basic health insurance of Switzerland. Recently, developed and clinically implemented, the Dynardi total disc arthroplasty (TDA) accounted for 10% of the implanted lumbar TDAs in the registry. We compared the outcomes of patients treated with Dynardi to those of the recipients of the other TDAs in the registry. Between March 2005 and October 2009, 483 patients with single-level TDA were documented in the registry. The 52 patients with a single Dynardi lumbar disc prosthesis implanted by two surgeons (CE and OS) were compared to the 431 patients who received one of the other prostheses. Data were collected in a prospective, observational multicenter mode. Surgery, implant, 3-month, 1-year, and 2-year follow-up forms as well as comorbidity, NASS and EQ-5D questionnaires were collected. For statistical analyses, the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and chi-square test were used. Multivariate regression analyses were also performed. Significant and clinically relevant reduction of low back pain and leg pain as well as improvement in quality of life was seen in both groups (P < 0.001 postop vs. preop). There were no inter-group differences regarding postoperative pain levels, intraoperative and follow-up complications or revision procedures with a new hospitalization. However, significantly more Dynardi patients achieved a minimum clinically relevant low back pain alleviation of 18 VAS points and a quality of life improvement of 0.25 EQ-5D points. The patients with Dynardi prosthesis showed a similar outcome to patients receiving the other TDAs in terms of postoperative low back and leg pain, complications, and revision procedures. A higher likelihood for achieving a minimum clinically relevant improvement of low back pain and quality of life in Dynardi patients was observed. This difference might be due to the large number of surgeons using other TDAs compared to only two surgeons using the Dynardi TDA, with corresponding variations in patient selection, patient-physician interaction and other factors, which cannot be assessed in a registry study.

Early repolarization, left ventricular diastolic function, and left atrial size in professional soccer players

Recent data have suggested a relation among long-term endurance sport practice, left atrial remodeling, and atrial fibrillation. We investigated the influence of an increased vagal tone, represented by the early repolarization (ER) pattern, on diastolic function and left atrial size in professional soccer players. Fifty-four consecutive athletes underwent electrocardiography, echocardiography, and exercise testing as part of their preparticipation screening. Athletes were divided into 2 groups according to presence or absence of an ER pattern, defined as a ST-segment elevation at the J-point (STE) > or =0.1 mm in 2 leads. For linear comparisons average STE was calculated. Mean age was 24 +/- 4 years. Twenty-five athletes (46%) showed an ER pattern. Athletes with an ER pattern had a significant lower heart rate (54 +/- 9 vs 62 +/- 11 beats/min, p = 0.024), an increased E/e' ratio (6.1 +/- 1.2 vs 5.1 +/- 1.0, p = 0.002), and larger volumes of the left atrium (25.6 +/- 7.3 vs 21.8 +/- 5.0 ml/m(2), p = 0.031) compared to athletes without an ER pattern. There were no significant differences concerning maximum workload, left ventricular dimensions, and systolic function. Univariate regression analysis revealed significant correlations among age, STE, and left atrial volume. In a stepwise multivariate regression analysis age, STE and e' contributed independently to left atrial size (r = 0.659, p <0.001). In conclusion, athletes with an ER pattern had an increased E/e' ratio, reflecting a higher left atrial filling pressure, contributing to left atrial remodeling over time.

Safety, effectiveness and predictors for early reoperation in therapeutic and prophylactic vertebroplasty: short-term results of a prospective case series of patients with osteoporotic vertebral fractures

Abstract Introduction Vertebroplasty (VP) is a cost-efficient alternative to kyphoplasty; however, regarding safety and vertebral body (VB) height restoration, it is considered inferior. We assessed the safety and efficacy of VP in alleviating pain, improving quality of life (QoL) and restoring alignment. Methods In a prospective monocenter case series from May 2007 until July 2008, there were 1,408 vertebroplasties performed during 319 interventions in 306 patients with traumatic, lytic and osteoporotic fractures. The 249 interventions in 233 patients performed because of osteoporotic vertebral fractures were analyzed regarding demographics, treatment and radiographic details, pain alleviation (VAS), QoL improvement (NASS and EQ-5D), complications and predictors for new fractures requiring a reoperation. Results The osteoporotic patient sample consisted of 76.7% (179) females with a median age of 80 years. A total of 54 males had a median age of 77 years. On average, there were 1.8 VBs fractured and 5 VBs treated. The preoperative pain was assessed by the visual analog scale (VAS) and decreased from 54.9 to 40.4 pts after 2 months and 31.2 pts after 6 months. Accordingly, the QoL on the EQ-5D measure (−0.6 to 1) improved from 0.35 pts before surgery to 0.56 pts after 2 and to 0.68 pts after 6 months. The preoperative Beck Index (anterior height/posterior height) improved from a mean of 0.64 preoperative to 0.76 postoperative, remained stable at 2 months and slightly deteriorated to 0.72 at 6 months postoperatively. There were cement leakages in 26% of the fractured VBs and in 1.4% of the prophylactically cemented VBs; there were symptoms in 4.3%, and most of them were temporary hypotension and one pulmonary cement embolism that remained asymptomatic. The univariate regression model revealed a tendency for a reduced risk for new or refractures on radiographs (OR = 2.61, 95% CI 0.92–7.38, p = 0.12) and reoperations (OR = 2.9, 95% CI 0.94–8.949, p = 0.1) when prophylactic augmentation was performed. The final multivariate regression model revealed male patients to have an about three times higher refracture risk (radiographic) (OR = 2.78, p = 0.02) at 6 months after surgery. Patients with a lumbar index fracture had an about three to five times higher refracture/reoperation risk than patients with a thoracic (OR = 0.33/0.35, p = 0.009/0.01) or thoracolumbar (OR = 0.32/0.22, p = 0.099/0.01) index fracture. Conclusion If routinely used, VP is a safe and efficacious treatment option for osteoporotic vertebral fractures with regard to pain relief and improvement of the QoL. Even segmental realignment can be partially achieved with proper patient positioning. Certain patient or fracture characteristics increase the risk for early radiographic refractures or new fractures, or a reoperation; a consequent prophylactic augmentation showed protective tendencies, but the study was underpowered for a final conclusion.

MicroRNA Expression Array Identifies Novel Diagnostic Markers for Conventional and Oncocytic Follicular Thyroid Carcinomas

Objective:The most difficult thyroid tumors to be diagnosed by cytology and histology are conventional follicular carcinomas (cFTCs) and oncocytic follicular carcinomas (oFTCs). Several microRNAs (miRNAs) have been previously found to be consistently deregulated in papillary thyroid carcinomas; however, very limited information is available for cFTC and oFTC. The aim of this study was to explore miRNA deregulation and find candidate miRNA markers for follicular carcinomas that can be used diagnostically.Design:Thirty-eight follicular thyroid carcinomas (21 cFTCs, 17 oFTCs) and 10 normal thyroid tissue samples were studied for expression of 381 miRNAs using human microarray assays. Expression of deregulated miRNAs was confirmed by individual RT-PCR assays in all samples. In addition, 11 follicular adenomas, two hyperplastic nodules (HNs), and 19 fine-needle aspiration samples were studied for expression of novel miRNA markers detected in this study.Results:The unsupervised hierarchical clustering analysis demonstrated individual clusters for cFTC and oFTC, indicating the difference in miRNA expression between these tumor types. Both cFTCs and oFTCs showed an up-regulation of miR-182/-183/-221/-222/-125a-3p and a down-regulation of miR-542-5p/-574-3p/-455/-199a. Novel miRNA (miR-885-5p) was found to be strongly up-regulated (>40-fold) in oFTCs but not in cFTCs, follicular adenomas, and HNs. The classification and regression tree algorithm applied to fine-needle aspiration samples demonstrated that three dysregulated miRNAs (miR-885-5p/-221/-574-3p) allowed distinguishing follicular thyroid carcinomas from benign HNs with high accuracy.Conclusions:In this study we demonstrate that different histopathological types of follicular thyroid carcinomas have distinct miRNA expression profiles. MiR-885-5p is highly up-regulated in oncocytic follicular carcinomas and may serve as a diagnostic marker for these tumors. A small set of deregulated miRNAs allows for an accurate discrimination between follicular carcinomas and hyperplastic nodules and can be used diagnostically in fine-needle aspiration biopsies.

Chronotropic incompetence predicts impaired response to exercise training in heart failure patients in sinus rhythm

Background: In most patients with chronic heart failure (CHF), endurance training improves exercise capacity. However, some patients do not respond favourably. The purpose of this study was to explore the reasons of non-response and to determine their predictive value.Methods: We studied a cohort of 120 consecutive CHF patients with sinus rhythm (mean age 57 ± 12 years, ejection fraction 29.3 ± 9.9%, peak VO2 17.3 ± 5.1 ml/min/kg), participating in a 3-month outpatient cardiac rehabilitation programme. Responders were defined as subjects who improved peak VO2 by more than 5%, work load by more than 10%, or VE/VCO2 slope by more than 5%. Subjects who did not fulfil at least one of the above criteria were characterized as non-responders. Multivariate regression analyses were performed to identify parameters that were predictive for a response. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses were performed for predictive parameters to identify thresholds for response or non-response.Results: Multivariate regression analyses revealed heart rate (HR) reserve, HR recovery at 1 min, and peak HR as significant predictors for a positive training response. ROC curves revealed the optimal thresholds separating responders from non-responders at less than 30 bpm for HR reserve, less than 6 bpm for HR recovery and less than 101 bpm for peak HR.Conclusions: The presence of impaired chronotropic competence is a major predictor of poor training response in CHF patients with sinus rhythm.

COMPARATIVE STUDY OF INFORMAL HEALTH CARE NETWORKS AND ELDERLY HEALTH STATUS IN ARGENTINA AND CUBA

This study will explore familial and friend support networks and living arrangements among elderly individuals in Latin America and the impact that this type of support has on the health of the elderly individuals in the countries of interest. Using data from the Survey on Health and Well-Being of Elders (SABE) from 1999-2000, I will explore which type of support has a larger impact on overall health. I will also measure differences in unmet needs for certain health services. This topic is particularly interesting because it will help to uncover what policies are best for aiding in the healthcare of the elderly in aging population. Lastly, the investigation of this topic will allow me to draw conclusions about the most effective means of social and public policy for the elderly community and provide me with information about the role of both informal provisions of support from family and friends, and formal provisions of support from the government. My primary focus will be on Argentina, using Buenos Aires as the sample city, and Cuba, using Havana as the sample city. These two countries have increasingly aging populations, poorer resources and vast inequalities, but, extremely different political, economic and cultural situations. Comparing the two countries will further allow me to determine correlations between health and the existence of support networks, as well as provide me with information to make more general claims that may be of use in the United States. Argentina is particularly interesting to me because of my abroad experience and homestay experience with an older Argentine woman who lived alone but depended upon her family for many healthcare needs, doctors’ visits and general well-being. In Argentina, I experienced a different form of living than I am used to in the United States, where many older individuals or couples live in nursing homes or assisted living facilities rather than alone or with family. The changing economic climate of the two countries coupled with labor patterns of women returning to work at rapid rates indicates that policies cannot just rely on either the formal or informal sector but require a combination of the two sectors working together.This paper will first give background on the difference in the economies and the health care systems in Argentina and Cuba and will show why it interesting to study and compare these two countries. I will then discuss the health status of the elderly in each population as well as discuss the informal care networks and the role of family in each country. This section will then be followed by a description of the data and methods used. I will end by drawing conclusions about the study and the outcomes, and then I will attempt to make suggestions about effective health care policies for the elderly.

Advantages and Applications of Transforming Empirical Model Input Space with Dimensional Models

Model-based calibration of steady-state engine operation is commonly performed with highly parameterized empirical models that are accurate but not very robust, particularly when predicting highly nonlinear responses such as diesel smoke emissions. To address this problem, and to boost the accuracy of more robust non-parametric methods to the same level, GT-Power was used to transform the empirical model input space into multiple input spaces that simplified the input-output relationship and improved the accuracy and robustness of smoke predictions made by three commonly used empirical modeling methods: Multivariate Regression, Neural Networks and the k-Nearest Neighbor method. The availability of multiple input spaces allowed the development of two committee techniques: a 'Simple Committee' technique that used averaged predictions from a set of 10 pre-selected input spaces chosen by the training data and the "Minimum Variance Committee" technique where the input spaces for each prediction were chosen on the basis of disagreement between the three modeling methods. This latter technique equalized the performance of the three modeling methods. The successively increasing improvements resulting from the use of a single best transformed input space (Best Combination Technique), Simple Committee Technique and Minimum Variance Committee Technique were verified with hypothesis testing. The transformed input spaces were also shown to improve outlier detection and to improve k-Nearest Neighbor performance when predicting dynamic emissions with steady-state training data. An unexpected finding was that the benefits of input space transformation were unaffected by changes in the hardware or the calibration of the underlying GT-Power model.

Arterial stiffness assessed by digital volume pulse correlates with comorbidity in patients with ESRD

BACKGROUND: Digital volume pulse (DVP), a noninvasive method for indirect assessment of arterial stiffness, was not tested previously in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD). Therefore, we compared the DVP-derived stiffness index (SI(DVP)) with aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) determined by means of Doppler ultrasonography in 2 groups of patients with ESRD and analyzed the correlation between SI(DVP) and comorbidity. METHODS: Photoplethysmography was performed on the index finger of the dominant hand or the hand from the nonfistula arm in 49 renal transplant (TX) recipients and 48 hemodialysis (HD) patients. Pulse curves were analyzed with computer assistance. Comorbidity was assessed by using an established index. RESULTS: The intrasubject variability of SI(DVP) was 5.7%. SI(DVP) and aortic PWV values correlated significantly (r = 0.66; P = 0.001) in patients with ESRD. SI(DVP) could not be assessed reliably in 25% and 6% of HD patients and TX recipients, respectively. Multivariate regression analyses showed that SI(DVP) increased with age in both HD patients and TX recipients (r = 0.61; P < 0.001) and with systolic blood pressure (r = 0.53; P < 0.025), mean arterial pressure (r = 0.47; P < 0.05), and pulse pressure (r = 0.52; P = 0.02) in TX recipients. Severity of comorbid status was associated highly with individual residuals of age-adjusted SI(DVP) in HD patients and TX recipients (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: DVP allows the measurement of arterial stiffness in most, but not all, patients with ESRD. SI(DVP) values correlate with comorbidity in HD patients and TX recipients.

Spatial Assessment of Erosion and its Impact on Soil Fertility in the Tajik Foothills

Efficient planning of soil conservation measures requires, first, to understand the impact of soil erosion on soil fertility with regard to local land cover classes; and second, to identify hot spots of soil erosion and bright spots of soil conservation in a spatially explicit manner. Soil organic carbon (SOC) is an important indicator of soil fertility. The aim of this study was to conduct a spatial assessment of erosion and its impact on SOC for specific land cover classes. Input data consisted of extensive ground truth, a digital elevation model and Landsat 7 imagery from two different seasons. Soil spectral reflectance readings were taken from soil samples in the laboratory and calibrated with results of SOC chemical analysis using regression tree modelling. The resulting model statistics for soil degradation assessments are promising (R2=0.71, RMSEV=0.32). Since the area includes rugged terrain and small agricultural plots, the decision tree models allowed mapping of land cover classes, soil erosion incidence and SOC content classes at an acceptable level of accuracy for preliminary studies. The various datasets were linked in the hot-bright spot matrix, which was developed to combine soil erosion incidence information and SOC content levels (for uniform land cover classes) in a scatter plot. The quarters of the plot show different stages of degradation, from well conserved land to hot spots of soil degradation. The approach helps to gain a better understanding of the impact of soil erosion on soil fertility and to identify hot and bright spots in a spatially explicit manner. The results show distinctly lower SOC content levels on large parts of the test areas, where annual crop cultivation was dominant in the 1990s and where cultivation has now been abandoned. On the other hand, there are strong indications that afforestations and fruit orchards established in the 1980s have been successful in conserving soil resources.

Similarities in the Subgingival Microbiota Assessed by a Curet Sampling Method at Sites With Chronic Periodontitis

Background: The goal of this study was to determine whether site-specific differences in the subgingival microbiota could be detected by the checkerboard method in subjects with periodontitis. Methods: Subjects with at least six periodontal pockets with a probing depth (PD) between 5 and 7 mm were enrolled in the study. Subgingival plaque samples were collected with sterile curets by a single-stroke procedure at six selected periodontal sites from 161 subjects (966 subgingival sites). Subgingival bacterial samples were assayed with the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization method identifying 37 species. Results: Probing depths of 5, 6, and 7 mm were found at 50% (n = 483), 34% (n = 328), and 16% (n = 155) of sites, respectively. Statistical analysis failed to demonstrate differences in the sum of bacterial counts by tooth type (P = 0.18) or specific location of the sample (P = 0.78). With the exceptions of Campylobacter gracilis (P <0.001) and Actinomyces naeslundii (P <0.001), analysis by general linear model multivariate regression failed to identify subject or sample location factors as explanatory to microbiologic results. A trend of difference in bacterial load by tooth type was found for Prevotella nigrescens (P <0.01). At a cutoff level of >/=1.0 x 10(5), Porphyromonas gingivalis and Tannerella forsythia (previously T. forsythensis) were present at 48.0% to 56.3% and 46.0% to 51.2% of sampled sites, respectively. Conclusions: Given the similarities in the clinical evidence of periodontitis, the presence and levels of 37 species commonly studied in periodontitis are similar, with no differences between molar, premolar, and incisor/cuspid subgingival sites. This may facilitate microbiologic sampling strategies in subjects during periodontal therapy.

Impaired endothelial progenitor cell function predicts age-dependent carotid intimal thickening

OBJECTIVES: We investigated whether qualitative or quantitative alterations of the endothelial progenitor cell (EPC) pool predict age-related structural vessel wall changes. BACKGROUND: We have previously shown that age-related endothelial dysfunction is accompanied by qualitative rather than quantitative changes of EPCs. Animal studies suggest that impaired EPC functions lead to accelerated arterial intimal thickening. METHODS: Intima-media thickness (IMT) was measured in the common carotid artery in our previously published groups of younger (25 +/- 1 years, n = 20) and older (61 +/- 2 years, n = 20) healthy non-smoking volunteers without arterial hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and diabetes mellitus. Endothelial progenitor cells (EPCs, KDR(+)/CD34(+) and KDR(+)/CD133(+)) were counted in peripheral blood using flow cytometry. In ex vivo expanded EPCs, the function was determined as chemotaxis to VEGF, proliferation, and survival. RESULTS: We observed thicker IMT in older as compared to younger subjects (0.68 +/- 0.03 mm Vs. 0.48 +/- 0.02 mm, P < 0.001). Importantly, there were significant inverse univariate correlations between IMT, EPC chemotaxis, and survival (r = -0.466 P < 0.05; r = -0.463, P < 0.01). No correlation was observed with numbers of circulating EPCs. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that age, mean arterial pressure and migration of EPCs were independent predictors of IMT (R (2 )= 0.58). CONCLUSION: Impaired EPC function may lead to accelerated vascular remodeling due to chronic impairment of endothelial maintenance.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Lipodystrophy and weight changes: data from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study, 2000-2006

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) is changing, and this may affect the type and occurrence of side effects. We examined the frequency of lipodystrophy (LD) and weight changes in relation to the use of specific drugs in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). METHODS: In the SHCS, patients are followed twice a year and scored by the treating physician as having 'fat accumulation', 'fat loss', or neither. Treatments, and reasons for change thereof, are recorded. Our study sample included all patients treated with cART between 2003 and 2006 and, in addition, all patients who started cART between 2000 and 2003. RESULTS: From 2003 to 2006, the percentage of patients taking stavudine, didanosine and nelfinavir decreased, the percentage taking lopinavir, nevirapine and efavirenz remained stable, and the percentage taking atazanavir and tenofovir increased by 18.7 and 22.2%, respectively. In life-table Kaplan-Meier analysis, patients starting cART in 2003-2006 were less likely to develop LD than those starting cART from 2000 to 2002 (P<0.02). LD was quoted as the reason for treatment change or discontinuation for 4% of patients on cART in 2003, and for 1% of patients treated in 2006 (P for trend <0.001). In univariate and multivariate regression analysis, patients with a weight gain of >or=5 kg were more likely to take lopinavir or atazanavir than patients without such a weight gain [odds ratio (OR) 2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-2.9, and OR 1.7, 95% CI 1.3-2.1, respectively]. CONCLUSIONS: LD has become less frequent in the SHCS from 2000 to 2006. A weight gain of more than 5 kg was associated with the use of atazanavir and lopinavir.

Genotype 3 is associated with accelerated fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C

BACKGROUND/AIMS: While several risk factors for the histological progression of chronic hepatitis C have been identified, the contribution of HCV genotypes to liver fibrosis evolution remains controversial. The aim of this study was to assess independent predictors for fibrosis progression. METHODS: We identified 1189 patients from the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort database with at least one biopsy prior to antiviral treatment and assessable date of infection. Stage-constant fibrosis progression rate was assessed using the ratio of fibrosis Metavir score to duration of infection. Stage-specific fibrosis progression rates were obtained using a Markov model. Risk factors were assessed by univariate and multivariate regression models. RESULTS: Independent risk factors for accelerated stage-constant fibrosis progression (>0.083 fibrosis units/year) included male sex (OR=1.60, [95% CI 1.21-2.12], P<0.001), age at infection (OR=1.08, [1.06-1.09], P<0.001), histological activity (OR=2.03, [1.54-2.68], P<0.001) and genotype 3 (OR=1.89, [1.37-2.61], P<0.001). Slower progression rates were observed in patients infected by blood transfusion (P=0.02) and invasive procedures or needle stick (P=0.03), compared to those infected by intravenous drug use. Maximum likelihood estimates (95% CI) of stage-specific progression rates (fibrosis units/year) for genotype 3 versus the other genotypes were: F0-->F1: 0.126 (0.106-0.145) versus 0.091 (0.083-0.100), F1-->F2: 0.099 (0.080-0.117) versus 0.065 (0.058-0.073), F2-->F3: 0.077 (0.058-0.096) versus 0.068 (0.057-0.080) and F3-->F4: 0.171 (0.106-0.236) versus 0.112 (0.083-0.142, overall P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This study shows a significant association of genotype 3 with accelerated fibrosis using both stage-constant and stage-specific estimates of fibrosis progression rates. This observation may have important consequences for the management of patients infected with this genotype.