The effect of alcohol consumption on household income in Ireland

This paper presents a study of the effects of alcohol consumption on household income in Ireland using the Slán National Health and Lifestyle Survey 2007 dataset, accounting for endogeneity and selection bias. Drinkers are categorised into one of four categories based on the recommended weekly drinking levels by the Irish Health Promotion Unit; those who never drank, non-drinkers, moderate and heavy drinkers. A multinomial logit OLS Two Step Estimate is used to explain individual's choice of drinking status and to correct for selection bias which would result in the selection into a particular category of drinking being endogenous. Endogeneity which may arise through the simultaneity of drinking status and income either due to the reverse causation between the two variables, income affecting alcohol consumption or alcohol consumption affecting income, or due to unobserved heterogeneity, is addressed. This paper finds that the household income of drinkers is higher than that of non-drinkers and of those who never drank. There is very little difference between the household income of moderate and heavy drinkers, with heavy drinkers earning slightly more. Weekly household income for those who never drank is €454.20, non-drinkers is €506.26, compared with €683.36 per week for moderate drinkers and €694.18 for heavy drinkers.

L’automédication en République Démocratique du Congo : choix ou contrainte ?

Fondé sur l’analyse des données produites par l’enquête « 1-2-3 » de 2012 en République Démocratique du Congo, cet article propose une approche quantitative de l’automédication. Il fait apparaître, le caractère relativement circonscrit de cette pratique dans les déclarations des individus confrontés à un épisode de maladie et tente de rendre compte des choix qui les guident : consulter un professionnel de santé, affirmer recourir à l’automédication, s’abstenir de se soigner ou recourir à l’automédication par défaut. La construction d’un modèle logistique multinomial non-ordonné permet à cet égard de comparer les déterminants de ces décisions, considérées sous la forme d’une double alternative : consulter ou recourir à l’automédication, et, pour ceux qui ne sollicitent pas un professionnel de santé, s’automédiquer ou s’abstenir de toute démarche thérapeutique. L’article pointe ainsi les contraintes (économiques, géographiques, sociales et culturelles) qui pèsent sur ces choix tout en soulignant comment les individus cherchent à s’en affranchir.

Certificação de qualidade versus qualidade da informação financeira: estudo para empresas portuguesas

O presente estudo tem como objetivo analisar se as empresas que têm implementado um Sistema de Gestão da Qualidade, certificadas segundo a norma da International Organization for Standardization (ISO) 9001, apresentam também uma boa qualidade da informação financeira. Neste sentido, pretende-se testar a expectável relação positiva entre a certificação de qualidade de uma empresa e a qualidade da sua informação financeira. Para isso, identificaram-se as empresas que possuem certificação do Sistema de Gestão de Qualidade, segundo a norma ISO 9001, enquanto a qualidade da informação financeira foi aferida utilizando como proxy os accruals discricionários estimados através do modelo Jones (1991). Utiliza-se um modelo logit para testar a relação pretendida, tendo como variável dependente a variável binária relativa à certificação de qualidade e como principal variável explicativa a qualidade da informação financeira. Com base nos resultados obtidos foi possível verificar a existência de uma relação positiva e estatisticamente significativa entre certificação de qualidade das empresas e a sua qualidade da informação financeira.

Evidence of Discrimination Against Afrocolombians in the Colombian Labor Market in Major Cities in 2007

This paper evaluate the hypothesis that race is a determining factor in access to quality employment in Colombia during 2007 -- Using data from the Large Integrated Household Survey (2007-I), we estimate a generalized ordered logit model -- The results provide evidence that individuals self-identified as Afrocolombian have a higher probability of being in a low quality job than other Colombians -- This probability is higher by 1.9% in Cali, 3.4% in Bogotá, 12.6% in Barranquilla, 1.8% in Cartagena, 1.1% in Medellin and 3.8% overall in these five cities, results that could indicate that there is racial discrimination against Afrocolombians in the Colombian labor market

“Productivity and Employment in Firm’s Acess to Public Funding to Support Innovation”

Innovation is at the heart of the Europe 2020 Strategy, in order to promote higher levels of employment and productivity. Special attention is given to increasing the effectiveness of innovation policy instruments, mainly as some authors found evidence that productivity could be negatively affected by subsidies. The aim of the study is to assess how the expected impact on firm productivity and employment is taken into account, when firms apply for public funding for innovation. The analysis is based on the case study of the Portuguese Innovation Incentive System in the Alentejo region. In order to understand which factors influence the public decision to financially support private investment, we estimated a logit model based on firms’ and applications’ characteristics, controlling for the macroeconomic environment. The results indicate that government preferences for promoting exports, exploiting firms R&D results and stimulating the level of qualified employment are shown to be more relevant than the impact on firm productivity. Furthermore, the cost to the government of new jobs created, measured at least by exemption of interest and financial charges on the loan, is almost twice as much for non-SMEs as for SMEs.

Determinants of European tourism demand in a demographic ageing society

This study identifies the senior European tourists determinants that explained their decisions to go on holidays. The empirical study was conducted among European tourists by applying a logit model. The model intends to explain the determinants related to the decision to go on holidays since the probability of a senior European tourist taking holidays in a country depends on a mix of motives as previous travel experience and demographic characteristics. Policy and theoretical implications are derived for contributing to the discussion between demographic variables and tourism demand choice patterns.

Determinants of European tourism demand in a demographic ageing society

This study identifies the senior European tourists determinants that explained their decisions to go on holidays. The empirical study was conducted among European tourists by applying a logit model. The model intends to explain the determinants related to the decision to go on holidays since the probability of a senior European tourist taking holidays in a country depends on a mix of motives as previous travel experience and demographic characteristics. Policy and theoretical implications are derived for contributing to the discussion between demographic variables and tourism demand choice patterns.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Model selection for the mixed logit with Bayesian estimation

In this paper, the mixed logit (ML) using Bayesian methods was employed to examine willingness-to-pay (WTP) to consume bread produced with reduced levels of pesticides so as to ameliorate environmental quality, from data generated by a choice experiment. Model comparison used the marginal likelihood, which is preferable for Bayesian model comparison and testing. Models containing constant and random parameters for a number of distributions were considered, along with models in ‘preference space’ and ‘WTP space’ as well as those allowing for misreporting. We found: strong support for the ML estimated in WTP space; little support for fixing the price coefficient a common practice advocated and adopted in the environmental economics literature; and, weak evidence for misreporting.

A multinomial model of applying recognition to judge between multiple alternatives

Proponents of the “fast and frugal” approach to decision-making suggest that inferential judgments are best made on the basis of limited information. For example, if only one of two cities is recognized and the task is to judge which city has the larger population, the recognition heuristic states that the recognized city should be selected. In preference choices with >2 options, it is also standard to assume that a “consideration set”, based upon some simple criterion, is established to reduce the options available. A multinomial processing tree model is outlined which provides the basis for estimating the extent to which recognition is used as a criterion in establishing a consideration set for inferential judgments.

Lexical access across languages: a multinomial model of auditory distraction

Recall in many types of verbal memory task is reliably disrupted by the presence of auditory distracters, with verbal distracters frequently proving the most disruptive (Beaman, 2005). A multinomial processing tree model (Schweickert, 1993) is applied to the effects on free recall of background speech from a known or an unknown language. The model reproduces the free recall curve and the impact on memory of verbal distracters for which a lexical entry exists (i.e., verbal items from a known language). The effects of semantic relatedness of distracters within a language is found to depend upon a redintegrative factor thought to reflect the contribution of the speech-production system. The differential impacts of known and unknown languages cannot be accounted for in this way, but the same effects of distraction are observed amongst bilinguals, regardless of distracter-language.

A diszkrét kiválasztási modell becslése Cox-regresszióval (Parameter estimation for multinomial discrete choice model using Cox-regression)

Considering the so-called "multinomial discrete choice" model the focus of this paper is on the estimation problem of the parameters. Especially, the basic question arises how to carry out the point and interval estimation of the parameters when the model is mixed i.e. includes both individual and choice-specific explanatory variables while a standard MDC computer program is not available for use. The basic idea behind the solution is the use of the Cox-proportional hazards method of survival analysis which is available in any standard statistical package and provided a data structure satisfying certain special requirements it yields the MDC solutions desired. The paper describes the features of the data set to be analysed.

An additive model for spatio-temporal smoothing of cancer mortality rates

In this paper, a Bayesian hierarchical model is used to anaylze the female breast cancer mortality rates for the State of Missouri from 1969 through 2001. The logit transformations of the mortality rates are assumed to be linear over the time with additive spatial and age effects as intercepts and slopes. Objective priors of the hierarchical model are explored. The Bayesian estimates are quite robustness in terms change of the hyperparamaters. The spatial correlations are appeared in both intercepts and slopes.

Model choice problems using approximate Bayesian computation with applications to pathogen transmission data sets

Analytically or computationally intractable likelihood functions can arise in complex statistical inferential problems making them inaccessible to standard Bayesian inferential methods. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods address such inferential problems by replacing direct likelihood evaluations with repeated sampling from the model. ABC methods have been predominantly applied to parameter estimation problems and less to model choice problems due to the added difficulty of handling multiple model spaces. The ABC algorithm proposed here addresses model choice problems by extending Fearnhead and Prangle (2012, Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series B 74, 1–28) where the posterior mean of the model parameters estimated through regression formed the summary statistics used in the discrepancy measure. An additional stepwise multinomial logistic regression is performed on the model indicator variable in the regression step and the estimated model probabilities are incorporated into the set of summary statistics for model choice purposes. A reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo step is also included in the algorithm to increase model diversity for thorough exploration of the model space. This algorithm was applied to a validating example to demonstrate the robustness of the algorithm across a wide range of true model probabilities. Its subsequent use in three pathogen transmission examples of varying complexity illustrates the utility of the algorithm in inferring preference of particular transmission models for the pathogens.