Capturing Weak Signals for Foresight Building

Tulevaisuuden hahmottamisen merkitys heikkojen signaalien avulla on korostunut viime vuosien aikana merkittävästi,koska yrityksen liiketoimintaympäristössä tapahtuvia muutoksia on ollut yhä vaikeampaa ennustaa historian perusteella. Liiketoimintaympäristössä monien muutoksien merkkejä on ollut nähtävissä, mutta niitä on ollut vaikea havaita. Heikkoja signaaleja tunnistamalla ja keräämällä sekä reagoimalla tilanteeseen riittävän ajoissa, on mahdollista saavuttaa ylivoimaista kilpailuetua. Kirjallisuustutkimus keskittyy heikkojen signaalien tunnistamisen haasteisiin liiketoimintaympäristöstä, signaalien ja informaation kehittymiseen sekä informaation hallintaan organisaatiossa. Kiinnostus näihin perustuu tarpeeseen määritellä heikkojen signaalien tunnistamiseen vaadittava prosessi, jonka avulla heikot signaalit voidaan huomioida M-real Oyj:n päätöksenteossa. Kirjallisuustutkimus osoittaa selvästi sen, että heikkoja signaaleita on olemassa ja niitä pystytään tunnistamaan liiketoimintaympäristöstä. Signaaleja voidaan rikastuttaa yrityksessä olevalla tietämyksellä ja hyödyntää edelleen päätöksenteossa. Vertailtaessa sekä kirjallisuustutkimusta että empiiristä tutkimusta tuli ilmi selkeästi tiedon moninaisuus; määrä,laatu ja tiedonsaannin oikea-aikaisuus päätöksenteossa. Tutkimuksen aikana kehittyi prosessimalli tiedon suodattamiselle, luokittelulle ja heikkojen signaalien tunnistamiselle. Työn edetessä prosessimalli kehittyi osaksi tässä työssä kehitettyä kokonaisuutta 'Weak Signal Capturing' -työkalua. Monistamalla työkalua voidaan kerätä heikkoja signaaleja eri M-realin liiketoiminnan osa-alueilta. Tietoja systemaattisesti kokoamalla voidaan kartoittaa tulevaisuutta koko M-realille.

Specific targeting of pro-death NMDA receptor signals with differing reliance on the NR2B PDZ ligand.

NMDA receptors (NMDARs) mediate ischemic brain damage, for which interactions between the C termini of NR2 subunits and PDZ domain proteins within the NMDAR signaling complex (NSC) are emerging therapeutic targets. However, expression of NMDARs in a non-neuronal context, lacking many NSC components, can still induce cell death. Moreover, it is unclear whether targeting the NSC will impair NMDAR-dependent prosurvival and plasticity signaling. We show that the NMDAR can promote death signaling independently of the NR2 PDZ ligand, when expressed in non-neuronal cells lacking PSD-95 and neuronal nitric oxide synthase (nNOS), key PDZ proteins that mediate neuronal NMDAR excitotoxicity. However, in a non-neuronal context, the NMDAR promotes cell death solely via c-Jun N-terminal protein kinase (JNK), whereas NMDAR-dependent cortical neuronal death is promoted by both JNK and p38. NMDAR-dependent pro-death signaling via p38 relies on neuronal context, although death signaling by JNK, triggered by mitochondrial reactive oxygen species production, does not. NMDAR-dependent p38 activation in neurons is triggered by submembranous Ca(2+), and is disrupted by NOS inhibitors and also a peptide mimicking the NR2B PDZ ligand (TAT-NR2B9c). TAT-NR2B9c reduced excitotoxic neuronal death and p38-mediated ischemic damage, without impairing an NMDAR-dependent plasticity model or prosurvival signaling to CREB or Akt. TAT-NR2B9c did not inhibit JNK activation, and synergized with JNK inhibitors to ameliorate severe excitotoxic neuronal loss in vitro and ischemic cortical damage in vivo. Thus, NMDAR-activated signals comprise pro-death pathways with differing requirements for PDZ protein interactions. These signals are amenable to selective inhibition, while sparing synaptic plasticity and prosurvival signaling.

A female melanin ornament signals offspring fluctuating asymmetry in the barn owl.

Sexual selection theory predicts that males advertise quality by displaying extravagant ornaments. By contrast, whether phenotypic variation in females has a signalling function remains an open question. Here, to our knowledge, we provide the first evidence that a female plumage trait can signal fluctuating asymmetry in the offspring. We experimentally demonstrate in wild barn owls (Tyto alba) that the extent to which females display black spots on their plumage does not only signal offspring parasite resistance as shown in a previous study but also developmental homeostasis in the offspring. A greater number of spotted females produced offspring that had more symmetrical feathers during the period of growth. Males, that pair non-randomly with respect to female plumage spottiness therefore appear to gain substantial benefits by mating with heavily spotted females. Genetic variation in plumage spottiness is nevertheless maintained as the covariation between offspring body mass and mother plumage spottiness varies annually depending on environmental conditions.

Conditional equilibrium constants in multicomponent heterogeneous adsorption: The conditional affinity spectrum

The concept of conditional stability constant is extended to the competitive binding of small molecules to heterogeneous surfaces or macromolecules via the introduction of the conditional affinity spectrum (CAS). The CAS describes the distribution of effective binding energies experienced by one complexing agent at a fixed concentration of the rest. We show that, when the multicomponent system can be described in terms of an underlying affinity spectrum [integral equation (IE) approach], the system can always be characterized by means of a CAS. The thermodynamic properties of the CAS and its dependence on the concentration of the rest of components are discussed. In the context of metal/proton competition, analytical expressions for the mean (conditional average affinity) and the variance (conditional heterogeneity) of the CAS as functions of pH are reported and their physical interpretation discussed. Furthermore, we show that the dependence of the CAS variance on pH allows for the analytical determination of the correlation coefficient between the binding energies of the metal and the proton. Nonideal competitive adsorption isotherm and Frumkin isotherms are used to illustrate the results of this work. Finally, the possibility of using CAS when the IE approach does not apply (for instance, when multidentate binding is present) is explored. © 2006 American Institute of Physics.

Affinity distribution functions in multicomponent heterogeneous adsorption. Analytical inversion of isotherms to obtain affinity spectra

An analytical approach for the interpretation of multicomponent heterogeneous adsorption or complexation isotherms in terms of multidimensional affinity spectra is presented. Fourier transform, applied to analyze the corresponding integral equation, leads to an inversion formula which allows the computation of the multicomponent affinity spectrum underlying a given competitive isotherm. Although a different mathematical methodology is used, this procedure can be seen as the extension to multicomponent systems of the classical Sips’s work devoted to monocomponent systems. Furthermore, a methodology which yields analytical expressions for the main statistical properties (mean free energies of binding and covariance matrix) of multidimensional affinity spectra is reported. Thus, the level of binding correlation between the different components can be quantified. It has to be highlighted that the reported methodology does not require the knowledge of the affinity spectrum to calculate the means, variances, and covariance of the binding energies of the different components. Nonideal competitive consistent adsorption isotherm, widely used in metal/proton competitive complexation to environmental macromolecules, and Frumkin competitive isotherms are selected to illustrate the application of the reported results. Explicit analytical expressions for the affinity spectrum as well as for the matrix correlation are obtained for the NICCA case. © 2004 American Institute of Physics.

Horizontal transfer of exosomal microRNAs transduce apoptotic signals between pancreatic beta-cells.

BACKGROUND: Diabetes mellitus is a common metabolic disorder characterized by dysfunction of insulin-secreting pancreatic beta-cells. MicroRNAs are important regulators of beta-cell activities. These non-coding RNAs have recently been discovered to exert their effects not only inside the cell producing them but, upon exosome-mediated transfer, also in other recipient cells. This novel communication mode remains unexplored in pancreatic beta-cells. In the present study, the microRNA content of exosomes released by beta-cells in physiological and physiopathological conditions was analyzed and the biological impact of their transfer to recipient cells investigated. RESULTS: Exosomes were isolated from the culture media of MIN6B1 and INS-1 derived 832/13 beta-cell lines and from mice, rat or human islets. Global profiling revealed that the microRNAs released in MIN6B1 exosomes do not simply reflect the content of the cells of origin. Indeed, while a subset of microRNAs was preferentially released in exosomes others were selectively retained in the cells. Moreover, exposure of MIN6B1 cells to inflammatory cytokines changed the release of several microRNAs. The dynamics of microRNA secretion and their potential transfer to recipient cells were next investigated. As a proof-of-concept, we demonstrate that if cel-miR-238, a C. Elegans microRNA not present in mammalian cells, is expressed in MIN6B1 cells a fraction of it is released in exosomes and is transferred to recipient beta-cells. Furthermore, incubation of untreated MIN6B1 or mice islet cells in the presence of microRNA-containing exosomes isolated from the culture media of cytokine-treated MIN6B1 cells triggers apoptosis of recipient cells. In contrast, exosomes originating from cells not exposed to cytokines have no impact on cell survival. Apoptosis induced by exosomes produced by cytokine-treated cells was prevented by down-regulation of the microRNA-mediating silencing protein Ago2 in recipient cells, suggesting that the effect is mediated by the non-coding RNAs. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our results suggest that beta-cells secrete microRNAs that can be transferred to neighboring beta-cells. Exposure of donor cells to pathophysiological conditions commonly associated with diabetes modifies the release of microRNAs and affects survival of recipient beta-cells. Our results support the concept that exosomal microRNAs transfer constitutes a novel cell-to-cell communication mechanism regulating the activity of pancreatic beta-cells.

All-sky search algorithms for monochromatic signals in bar gravitational wave detector data

In this paper we design and develop several filtering strategies for the analysis of data generated by a resonant bar gravitational wave (GW) antenna, with the goal of assessing the presence (or absence) therein of long-duration monochromatic GW signals, as well as the eventual amplitude and frequency of the signals, within the sensitivity band of the detector. Such signals are most likely generated in the fast rotation of slightly asymmetric spinning stars. We develop practical procedures, together with a study of their statistical properties, which will provide us with useful information on the performance of each technique. The selection of candidate events will then be established according to threshold-crossing probabilities, based on the Neyman-Pearson criterion. In particular, it will be shown that our approach, based on phase estimation, presents a better signal-to-noise ratio than does pure spectral analysis, the most common approach.

Identification of neuronal network properties from the spectral analysis of calcium imaging signals in neuronal cultures

Neuronal networks in vitro are prominent systems to study the development of connections in living neuronal networks and the interplay between connectivity, activity and function. These cultured networks show a rich spontaneous activity that evolves concurrently with the connectivity of the underlying network. In this work we monitor the development of neuronal cultures, and record their activity using calcium fluorescence imaging. We use spectral analysis to characterize global dynamical and structural traits of the neuronal cultures. We first observe that the power spectrum can be used as a signature of the state of the network, for instance when inhibition is active or silent, as well as a measure of the network's connectivity strength. Second, the power spectrum identifies prominent developmental changes in the network such as GABAA switch. And third, the analysis of the spatial distribution of the spectral density, in experiments with a controlled disintegration of the network through CNQX, an AMPA-glutamate receptor antagonist in excitatory neurons, reveals the existence of communities of strongly connected, highly active neurons that display synchronous oscillations. Our work illustrates the interest of spectral analysis for the study of in vitro networks, and its potential use as a network-state indicator, for instance to compare healthy and diseased neuronal networks.

Thermodynamic stability of nanosized multicomponent bubbles/droplets: The square gradient theory and the capillary approach

Formation of nanosized droplets/bubbles from a metastable bulk phase is connected to many unresolved scientific questions. We analyze the properties and stability of multicomponent droplets and bubbles in the canonical ensemble, and compare with single-component systems. The bubbles/droplets are described on the mesoscopic level by square gradient theory. Furthermore, we compare the results to a capillary model which gives a macroscopic description. Remarkably, the solutions of the square gradient model, representing bubbles and droplets, are accurately reproduced by the capillary model except in the vicinity of the spinodals. The solutions of the square gradient model form closed loops, which shows the inherent symmetry and connected nature of bubbles and droplets. A thermodynamic stability analysis is carried out, where the second variation of the square gradient description is compared to the eigenvalues of the Hessian matrix in the capillary description. The analysis shows that it is impossible to stabilize arbitrarily small bubbles or droplets in closed systems and gives insight into metastable regions close to the minimum bubble/droplet radii. Despite the large difference in complexity, the square gradient and the capillary model predict the same finite threshold sizes and very similar stability limits for bubbles and droplets, both for single-component and two-component systems.

ICA Cleaning procedure for EEG signals analysis: application to Alzheimer's disease detection

To develop systems in order to detect Alzheimer’s disease we want to use EEG signals. Available database is raw, so the first step must be to clean signals properly. We propose a new way of ICA cleaning on a database recorded from patients with Alzheimer's disease (mildAD, early stage). Two researchers visually inspected all the signals (EEG channels), and each recording's least corrupted (artefact-clean) continuous 20 sec interval were chosen for the analysis. Each trial was then decomposed using ICA. Sources were ordered using a kurtosis measure, and the researchers cleared up to seven sources per trial corresponding to artefacts (eye movements, EMG corruption, EKG, etc), using three criteria: (i) Isolated source on the scalp (only a few electrodes contribute to the source), (ii) Abnormal wave shape (drifts, eye blinks, sharp waves, etc.), (iii) Source of abnormally high amplitude ( �100 �V). We then evaluated the outcome of this cleaning by means of the classification of patients using multilayer perceptron neural networks. Results are very satisfactory and performance is increased from 50.9% to 73.1% correctly classified data using ICA cleaning procedure.

Derivation of an observer model adapted to irregular signals based on convolution channels.

Anthropomorphic model observers are mathe- matical algorithms which are applied to images with the ultimate goal of predicting human signal detection and classification accuracy across varieties of backgrounds, image acquisitions and display conditions. A limitation of current channelized model observers is their inability to handle irregularly-shaped signals, which are common in clinical images, without a high number of directional channels. Here, we derive a new linear model observer based on convolution channels which we refer to as the "Filtered Channel observer" (FCO), as an extension of the channelized Hotelling observer (CHO) and the nonprewhitening with an eye filter (NPWE) observer. In analogy to the CHO, this linear model observer can take the form of a single template with an external noise term. To compare with human observers, we tested signals with irregular and asymmetrical shapes spanning the size of lesions down to those of microcalfications in 4-AFC breast tomosynthesis detection tasks, with three different contrasts for each case. Whereas humans uniformly outperformed conventional CHOs, the FCO observer outperformed humans for every signal with only one exception. Additive internal noise in the models allowed us to degrade model performance and match human performance. We could not match all the human performances with a model with a single internal noise component for all signal shape, size and contrast conditions. This suggests that either the internal noise might vary across signals or that the model cannot entirely capture the human detection strategy. However, the FCO model offers an efficient way to apprehend human observer performance for a non-symmetric signal.

Performance benchmarking and incentive regulation – considerations of directing signals for electricity distribution companies

After the restructuring process of the power supply industry, which for instance in Finland took place in the mid-1990s, free competition was introduced for the production and sale of electricity. Nevertheless, natural monopolies are found to be the most efficient form of production in the transmission and distribution of electricity, and therefore such companies remained franchised monopolies. To prevent the misuse of the monopoly position and to guarantee the rights of the customers, regulation of these monopoly companies is required. One of the main objectives of the restructuring process has been to increase the cost efficiency of the industry. Simultaneously, demands for the service quality are increasing. Therefore, many regulatory frameworks are being, or have been, reshaped so that companies are provided with stronger incentives for efficiency and quality improvements. Performance benchmarking has in many cases a central role in the practical implementation of such incentive schemes. Economic regulation with performance benchmarking attached to it provides companies with directing signals that tend to affect their investment and maintenance strategies. Since the asset lifetimes in the electricity distribution are typically many decades, investment decisions have far-reaching technical and economic effects. This doctoral thesis addresses the directing signals of incentive regulation and performance benchmarking in the field of electricity distribution. The theory of efficiency measurement and the most common regulation models are presented. The chief contributions of this work are (1) a new kind of analysis of the regulatory framework, so that the actual directing signals of the regulation and benchmarking for the electricity distribution companies are evaluated, (2) developing the methodology and a software tool for analysing the directing signals of the regulation and benchmarking in the electricity distribution sector, and (3) analysing the real-life regulatory frameworks by the developed methodology and further develop regulation model from the viewpoint of the directing signals. The results of this study have played a key role in the development of the Finnish regulatory model.