970 resultados para modèle causal contrefactuel


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Background: C-reactive protein (CRP) is associated with risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Whether CRP is causally associated with CHD or merely a marker of underlying atherosclerosis is uncertain. Methods: We used a Mendelian randomisation design to investigate the causal relationship of CRP with CHD. We identified three genetic variants in the CRP locus (rs7553007, rs1130864 and rs1205) which influence CRP levels. We tested the three SNPs for association with CHD amongst 28,112 CHD cases and 100,823 controls. We then compared the observed relationship between the SNPs and CHD, with that predicted from the association of SNPs with CRP levels, and of CRP levels with CHD. Results: SNPs in the CRP locus were not associated with CHD: rs7553007, OR 0.98 (95% CI, 0.94-1.01); rs1130864, OR 1.00 (95% CI, 0.86-1.15); rs1205, OR 1.03 (95% CI, 0.99-1.07); combined OR for all three SNPs, 1.00 (95% CI, 0.97-1.02), per 20% lower CRP (figure). In contrast, the predicted OR for CHD from a 20% lower CRP level is 0.94 (95% CI, 0.94- 0.95), based on meta-analysis of observational studies. Conclusions: Though CRP variants are associated with CRP levels, and CRP levels with risk of CHD, we observed that CRP variants are not associated with CHD risk. Our Mendelian randomisation experiment strongly argues against a causal association of CRP with CHD.

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Elevated levels of γ-glutamyltransferase (GGT) have been associated with elevated blood pressure (BP) and diabetes. However, the causality of these relations has not been addressed. The authors performed a cross-sectional analysis (2003-2006) among 4,360 participants from the population-based Cohorte Lausannoise (CoLaus) Study (Lausanne, Switzerland). The rs2017869 variant of the γ-glutamyltransferase 1 (GGT1) gene, which explained 1.6% of the variance in GGT levels, was used as an instrument for Mendelian randomization (MR). Sex-specific GGT quartiles were strongly associated with both systolic and diastolic BP (all P's < 0.0001). After multivariable adjustment, these relations were attenuated but remained significant. Using MR, the authors observed no positive association of GGT with BP (systolic: β -5.68, 95% confidence interval (CI): -11.51, 0.16 (P = 0.06); diastolic: β = -2.24, 95% CI: -5.98, 1.49 (P = 0.24)). The association of GGT with insulin was also attenuated after multivariable adjustment but persisted in the fully adjusted model (β = 0.07, 95% CI: 0.04, 0.09; P < 0.0001). Using MR, the authors also observed a positive association of GGT with insulin (β = 0.19, 95% CI: 0.01, 0.37; P = 0.04). In conclusion, the authors found evidence for a direct causal relation of GGT with fasting insulin but not with BP.

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The aim of this computerized simulation model is to provide an estimate of the number of beds used by a population, taking into accounts important determining factors. These factors are demographic data of the deserved population, hospitalization rates, hospital case-mix and length of stay; these parameters can be taken either from observed data or from scenarii. As an example, the projected evolution of the number of beds in Canton Vaud for the period 1893-2010 is presented.

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Intracellular bacteria are common causes of community-acquired pneumonia that grow poorly or not at all on standard culture media and do not respond to beta-lactam antibiotic therapy. Apart from well-established agents of pneumonia such as Legionella pneumophila, Mycoplasma pneumoniae, Chlamydia pneumoniae, Chlamydia psittaci and Coxiella burnetii, some new emerging pathogens have recently been recognized, mainly Parachlamydia acanthamoebae and Simkania negevensis, two Chlamydia-related bacteria. Most of them are causes of benign and self-limited infections. However, they may cause severe pneumonia in some cases (i.e., Legionnaires' disease) and they may cause outbreaks representing a public health problem deserving prompt recognition and appropriate therapy. Although extrapulmonary manifestations are often present, no clinical features allow them to be distinguished from classical bacterial agents of pneumonia such as Streptococcus pneumoniae. Thus, specific molecular diagnostic tools are very helpful for early recognition of the offending bacteria, whereas serology often only allows retrospective or late diagnosis. Macrolides remain the best empirical treatment of intracellular respiratory pathogens, although some observational studies suggest that quinolones may be superior for the treatment of legionellosis.