Historical weather extremes in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”

Meteorological or climatological extremes are rare and hence studying them requires long meteorological data sets. Moreover, for addressing the underlying atmospheric processes, detailed three-dimensional data are desired. Until recently the two requirements were incompatible as long meteorological series were only available for a few locations, whereas detailed 3-dimensional data sets such as reanalyses were limited to the past few decades. In 2011, the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis” (20CR) was released, a 6-hourly global atmospheric data set covering the past 140 years, thus combining the two properties. The collection of short papers in this volume contains case studies of individual extreme events in the 20CR data set. In this overview paper we introduce the first six cases and summarise some common findings. All of the events are represented in 20CR in a physically consistent way, allowing further meteorological interpretations and process studies. Also, for most of the events, the magnitudes are underestimated in the ensemble mean. Possible causes are addressed. For interpreting extrema it may be necessary to address individual ensemble members. Also, the density of observations underlying 20CR should be considered. Finally, we point to problems in wind speeds over the Arctic and the northern North Pacific in 20CR prior to the 1950s.

Arctic Winds in the “Twentieth Century Reanalysis”

Climate in the European part of the Arctic underwent a rapid warming between the 1910s and the 1930s. Previous studies have addressed the role of atmospheric circulation in this period based on geopotential height fields because observations of upper-level winds in the Arctic are rare. Here we analyse winds over the Arctic and specifically over Spitsbergen in the “Twentieth Century Reanalyses” (20CR). We compare in situ upper-air wind measurements performed in 1912 and 1913 in Spitsbergen with six-hourly 20CR data. Furthermore, we compare monthly-to-seasonal 20CR winds at 700 hPa over the European Arctic with statistically reconstructed winds at 3 km altitude. Finally, we analyse long-term trends in Arctic winds in 20CR. The general agreement between observed upper-air winds and 20CR on the day-to-day scale is rather poor, which is not surprising given the paucity of observations in the Arctic at that time that constrain 20CR. In contrast, the seasonally averaged winds (which represent a larger spatial scale) in 20CR compare well with statistically reconstructed winds. The analysis of long term near-surface wind time series in 20CR shows arguably artificial trends from 1871 to around the 1950s over sparsely observed regions, particularly oceanic regions. Densely observed regions such as Europe or the USA show no such trends. This analysis shows that great care needs to be taken when working with 20CR in the Arctic and other sparsely observed regions.

Aerological observations in the Tropics in the Early Twentieth Century

In the first decades of the 20th century, aerological observations were for the first time performed in tropical regions. One of the most prominent endeavours in this respect was ARTHUR BERSON’s aerological expedition to East Africa. Although the main target was the East African monsoon circulation, the expedition provided also other insights that profoundly changed meteorology and climatology. BERSON observed that the tropical tropopause was much higher and colder than that over midlatitudes. Moreover, westerly winds were observed in the lower stratosphere, apparently contradicting the high-altitude equatorial easterly winds that were known since the Krakatoa eruption (‘‘Krakatoa easterlies’’). The puzzle was only resolved five decades later with the discovery of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). In this paper we briefly summarize the expedition of BERSON and review the results in a historical context and in the light of the current research. In the second part of the paper we re-visit BERSON’s early aerological observations, which we have digitized. We compare the observed wind profiles with corresponding profiles extracted from the ‘‘Twentieth Century Reanalysis’’, which provides global three-dimensional weather information back to 1871 based on an assimilation of sea-level and surface pressure data. The comparison shows a good agreement at the coast but less good agreement further inland, at the shore of Lake Victoria, where the circulation is more complex. These results demonstrate that BERSON’s observations are still valuable today as input to current reanalysis systems or for their validation.

Twentieth Century Increase of Atmospheric Ammonia Recorded in Mount Everest Ice Core

An NH4+ record covering the period A.D. 1845-1997 was reconstructed using an 80.4 m ice core from East Rongbuk Glacier at an elevation of 6450 m on the northern slope of Mount Everest. Variations in NH4+ are characterized by a dramatic increase since the 1950s. The highest NH4+ concentrations occur in the 1980s. They are about twofold more than those in the first half of twentieth century. Empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on the eight major ion (Na+,K+,Mg2+,NH4+,Ca2+,NO3-,SO42- and Cl-) series from this core indicates that NH4+ is loaded mainly on EOF3 (60% of NH4+ variance), suggesting that NH4+ has a unique signature. Instrumental sea level pressure (SLP) and regional temperatures are used to explore the relationship between NH4+ variations and both atmospheric circulation and natural source strength over Asia. Higher NH4+ concentrations are associated with an enhanced winter Mongolian High and a deepened summer Mongolian Low. A positive relationship also exists between NH4+ concentrations and regional temperature changes of the GIS Box 36 (Indian subcontinent), indicating that an increase in temperature may contribute to the strengthening of natural ammonia emissions (e. g., from plants and soils). A close positive correlation between NH4+ and acidic species (SO42- plus NO3-) concentrations suggests that a portion of the increase in NH4+ concentrations could be contributed by enhanced atmospheric acidification. Anthropogenic ammonia emissions from enhanced agricultural activities and energy consumption over Asia in concert with population increase since the 1950s appear also to be a significant factor in the dramatic increase of NH4+ concentrations during the last few decades.

Summer temperature in the eastern part of southern South America: its variability in the twentieth century and a teleconnection with Oceania

The 1907–2001 summer-to-summer surface air temperature variability in the eastern part of southern South America (SSA, partly including Patagonia) is analysed. Based on records from instruments located next to the Atlantic Ocean (36°S–55°S), we define indices for the interannual and interdecadal timescales. The main interdecadal mode reflects the late-1970s cold-to-warm climate shift in the region and a warm-to-cold transition during early 1930s. Although it has been in phase with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index since the 1960s, they diverged in the preceding decades. The main interannual variability index exhibits high spectral power at ~3.4 years and is representative of temperature variability in a broad area in the southern half of the continent. Eleven-years running correlation coefficients between this index and December-to-February (DJF) Niño3.4 show significant decadal fluctuations, out-of-phase with the running correlation with a DJF index of the Southern Annular Mode. The main interannual variability index is associated with a barotropic wavetrain-like pattern extending over the South Pacific from Oceania to SSA. During warm (cold) summers in SSA, significant anticyclonic (cyclonic) anomalies tend to predominate over eastern Australia, to the north of the Ross Sea, and to the east of SSA, whereas anomalous cyclonic (anticyclonic) circulation is observed over New Zealand and west of SSA. This teleconnection links warm (cold) SSA anomalies with dry (wet) summers in eastern Australia. The covariability seems to be influenced by the characteristics of tropical forcing; indeed, a disruption has been observed since late 1970s, presumably due to the PDO warm phase.

Modern solar maximum forced late twentieth century Greenland cooling

The abrupt Northern Hemispheric warming at the end of the twentieth century has been attributed to an enhanced greenhouse effect. Yet Greenland and surrounding subpolar North Atlantic remained anomalously cold in 1970s to early 1990s. Here we reconstructed robust Greenland temperature records (North Greenland Ice Core Project and Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2) over the past 2100 years using argon and nitrogen isotopes in air trapped within ice cores and show that this cold anomaly was part of a recursive pattern of antiphase Greenland temperature responses to solar variability with a possible multidecadal lag. We hypothesize that high solar activity during the modern solar maximum (approximately 1950s–1980s) resulted in a cooling over Greenland and surrounding subpolar North Atlantic through the slowdown of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation with atmospheric feedback processes.