Peak residential electricity demand and social practices: Deriving flexibility and greenhouse gas intensities from time use and locational data

Peak residential electricity demand takes place when people conduct simultaneous activities at specific times of the day. Social practices generate patterns of demand and can help understand why, where, with whom and when energy services are used at peak time. The aim of this work is to make use of recent UK time use and locational data to better understand: (i) how a set of component indices on synchronisation, variation, sharing and mobility indicate flexibility to shift demand; and (ii) the links between people’s activities and peaks in greenhouse gases’ intensities. The analysis is based on a recent UK time use dataset, providing 1 minute interval data from GPS devices and 10 minute data from diaries and questionnaires for 175 data days comprising 153 respondents. Findings show how greenhouse gases’ intensities and flexibility to shift activities vary throughout the day. Morning peaks are characterised by high levels of synchronisation, shared activities and occupancy, with low variation of activities. Evening peaks feature low synchronisation, and high spatial mobility variation of activities. From a network operator perspective, the results indicate that periods with lower flexibility may be prone to more significant local network loads due to the synchronization of electricity-demanding activities.

Tests of sunspot number sequences: 1. Using ionosonde data

More than 70 years ago it was recognised that ionospheric F2-layer critical frequencies [foF2] had a strong relationship to sunspot number. Using historic datasets from the Slough and Washington ionosondes, we evaluate the best statistical fits of foF2 to sunspot numbers (at each Universal Time [UT] separately) in order to search for drifts and abrupt changes in the fit residuals over Solar Cycles 17-21. This test is carried out for the original composite of the Wolf/Zürich/International sunspot number [R], the new “backbone” group sunspot number [RBB] and the proposed “corrected sunspot number” [RC]. Polynomial fits are made both with and without allowance for the white-light facular area, which has been reported as being associated with cycle-to-cycle changes in the sunspot number - foF2 relationship. Over the interval studied here, R, RBB, and RC largely differ in their allowance for the “Waldmeier discontinuity” around 1945 (the correction factor for which for R, RBB and RC is, respectively, zero, effectively over 20 %, and explicitly 11.6 %). It is shown that for Solar Cycles 18-21, all three sunspot data sequences perform well, but that the fit residuals are lowest and most uniform for RBB. We here use foF2 for those UTs for which R, RBB, and RC all give correlations exceeding 0.99 for intervals both before and after the Waldmeier discontinuity. The error introduced by the Waldmeier discontinuity causes R to underestimate the fitted values based on the foF2 data for 1932-1945 but RBB overestimates them by almost the same factor, implying that the correction for the Waldmeier discontinuity inherent in RBB is too large by a factor of two. Fit residuals are smallest and most uniform for RC and the ionospheric data support the optimum discontinuity multiplicative correction factor derived from the independent Royal Greenwich Observatory (RGO) sunspot group data for the same interval.

A Bayesian Analysis in the Presence of Covariates for Multivariate Survival Data: An example of Application

In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian analysis for survival multivariate data in the presence of a covariate vector and censored observations. Different ""frailties"" or latent variables are considered to capture the correlation among the survival times for the same individual. We assume Weibull or generalized Gamma distributions considering right censored lifetime data. We develop the Bayesian analysis using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.

A flexible model for survival data with a cure rate: a Bayesian approach

In this paper we deal with a Bayesian analysis for right-censored survival data suitable for populations with a cure rate. We consider a cure rate model based on the negative binomial distribution, encompassing as a special case the promotion time cure model. Bayesian analysis is based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. We also present some discussion on model selection and an illustration with a real dataset.

Geochronological data from the Faxinal coal succession, southern Parana Basin, Brazil: A preliminary approach combining radiometric U-Pb dating and palynostratigraphy

A radiometric zircon age of 285.4 +/- 8.6 Ma (IDTIMS U-Pb) is reported from a tonstein layer interbedded with coal seams in the Faxinal coalfield, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil. Calibration of palynostratigraphic data with the absolute age shows that the coal depositional interval in the southern Parana Basin is constrained to the Sakmarian. Consequently, the basal Gondwana sequence in the southern part of the basin should lie at the Carboniferous-Permian boundary, not within the Sakmarian as previously considered. The new results are significant for correlations between the Parana Basin and the Argentinian Paganzo Basin (302 +/- 6 Ma and 288 +/- 7 Ma) and with the Karoo Basin, specifically with the top of the Dwyka Tillite (302 +/- 3 Ma and 299.2 +/- 3.2 Ma) and the lowermost Ecca Group (288 +/- 3 Ma and 289.6 +/- 3.8 Ma). The evidence signifies widespread latest Carboniferous volcanic activity in western Gondwana. (C) 2007 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using irregularly spaced returns to estimate multi-factor models: application to Brazilian equity data

Multi-factor models constitute a useful tool to explain cross-sectional covariance in equities returns. We propose in this paper the use of irregularly spaced returns in the multi-factor model estimation and provide an empirical example with the 389 most liquid equities in the Brazilian Market. The market index shows itself significant to explain equity returns while the US$/Brazilian Real exchange rate and the Brazilian standard interest rate does not. This example shows the usefulness of the estimation method in further using the model to fill in missing values and to provide interval forecasts.

Foreign direct investment spillovers: what can we learn from portuguese data?

This paper investigates the impact of foreign direct investment on the productivity performance of domestic firms in Portugal. The data comprise nine manufacturing sectors for the period 1992-95. Relatively to previous studies, model specification is improved by taking into consideration several aspects: the influence of the “technological gap” on spill-overs diffusion and the choice of its most appropriate interval; sectoral variation in the coefficients of the spill-overs effect; identification of constant, idiosyncratic sectoral factors by means of a fixed effects model; and the search for inter-sectoral positive spillover effects. The relationship between domestic firms productivity and the foreign presence does take place in a positive way, only if a proper technology differential between the foreign and domestic producers exists and the sectoral characteristics are favourable. In broad terms, spillovers diffusion is associated to modern industries in which the foreign owned establishments have a clear, but not too sharp, edge on the domestic ones. Besides, other specific sectoral influences can be pertinent; agglomerative location factors being one example.

Estimation models of variance components for farrowing interval in swine

Este trabalho teve como objetivo principal avaliar a importância da inclusão dos efeitos genético materno, comum de leitegada e de ambiente permanente no modelo de estimação de componentes de variância para a característica intervalo de parto em fêmeas suínas. Foram utilizados dados que consistiam de 1.013 observações de fêmeas Dalland (C-40), registradas em dois rebanhos. As estimativas dos componentes de variância foram realizadas pelo método da máxima verossimilhança restrita livre de derivadas. Foram testados oito modelos, que continham os efeitos fixos (grupos de contemporâneo e covariáveis) e os efeitos genético aditivo direto e residual, mas variavam quanto à inclusão dos efeitos aleatórios genético materno, ambiental comum de leitegada e ambiental permanente. O teste da razão de verossimilhança (LR) indicou a não necessidade da inclusão desses efeitos no modelo. No entanto observou-se que o efeito ambiental permanente causou mudança nas estimativas de herdabilidade, que variaram de 0,00 a 0,03. Conclui-se que os valores de herdabilidade obtidos indicam que esta característica não apresentaria ganho genético como resposta à seleção. O efeito ambiental comum de leitegada e o genético materno não apresentaram influência sobre esta característica. Já o ambiental permanente, mesmo sem ter sido significativo o seu efeito pelo LR, deve ser considerado nos modelos genéticos para essa característica, pois sua presença causou mudança nas estimativas da variância genética aditiva.

The influence of time interval between bleaching and enamel bonding

Objectives: the purpose of this study was to investigate the penetration of a conventional adhesive material into enamel bleached with 16% carbamide peroxide and 38% hydrogen peroxide using optical light microscopy.Methods: Extracted human teeth were randomly divided into eight experimental groups with six specimens each, according to the bleaching material and time interval after bleaching and before the bonding procedure. Groups were designated as follows: control group, restorations in unbleached teeth; restorations performed immediately after bleaching; restorations performed 7 days after bleaching; restorations performed 14 days after bleaching; and restorations performed 30 days after bleaching. The length of resin tags was measured with an Axiophot photomicroscope at 400x magnification for the calculation of the proportion of tags of study groups compared to the respective control groups. Analysis of variance was applied for comparison between groups; data were transformed into arcsine (p < 0.05).Results: the specimens of experimental groups, in which restorations were performed 7, 14, and 30 days after bleaching, showed better penetration of adhesive material into enamel than specimens restored immediately after bleaching. There was no statistically significant difference between the bleaching materials employed or in the interaction between bleaching agent and time interval.Conclusions: This suggests that a time interval of at least 7 days should be allowed between enamel bleaching and placement of adhesive bonding agents for accomplishment of composite resin restorations.

Tests of proportional hazards and proportional odds models for grouped survival data

In this paper, we derive score test statistics to discriminate between proportional hazards and proportional odds models for grouped survival data. These models are embedded within a power family transformation in order to obtain the score tests. In simple cases, some small-sample results are obtained for the score statistics using Monte Carlo simulations. Score statistics have distributions well approximated by the chi-squared distribution. Real examples illustrate the proposed tests.

Modeling grouped survival data with time-dependent covariates

In this article, proportional hazards and logistic models for grouped survival data were extended to incorporate time-dependent covariates. The extension was motivated by a forestry experiment designed to compare five different water stresses in Eucalyptus grandis seedlings. The response was the seedling lifetime. The data set was grouped since there were just three occasions in which the seedlings was visited by the researcher. In each of these occasions also the shoot height was measured and therefore it is a time-dependent covariate. Both extended models were used in this example, and the results were very similar.

Genetic parameters for milk yield, age at first calving and interval between first and second calving in milk buffaloes

Genetic parameters for the relation between the traits of milk yield (MY), age at first calving (AFC) and interval between first and second calving (IBFSC) were estimated in milk buffaloes of the Murrah breed. In the study, data of 1578 buffaloes at first lactation, with calvings from 1974 to 2006 were analyzed. The MTDFREML system was used in the analyses with models for the MY, IBFSC traits which included the fixed effects of herd-year-season of calving, linear and quadratic terms of calving age as covariate and the random animal effects and error. The model for AFC consisted of the herd-year-season fixed effects of calving and the random effects of animal and error. Heritability estimates MY, AFC and IBFSC traits were 0.20, 0.07 and 0.14, respectively. Genetic and phenotypic correlations between the traits were: MY and AFC = -0.12 and -0.15, MY and IBFSC = 0.07 and 0.30, AFC and IBFSC = 0.35 and 0.37, respectively. Genetic correlation between MY and AFC traits showed desirable negative association, suggesting that the daughters of the bulls with high breeding value for MY could be physiological maturity to a precocious age. Genetic correlation between MY and IBFSC showed that the selection of the animals that increased milk yield is also those that tend to intervals of bigger calving.

Genetic parameters for milk yield, age at first calving and interval between first and second calving in milk Murrah buffaloes

In the present study, data of 1,578 first lactation females, calving from 1985 to 2006 were analysed with the purpose of estimating genetic parameters for milk yield (MY), age at first calving (AFC) and interval between first and second calving (IBFSC) in dairy buffaloes of the Murrah breed in Brazil, Heritability estimates for MY, AFC and IBFSC traits were 0.20, 0.07 and 0.14, respectively. Genetic correlations between MY and AFC and IBFSC were -0.12 and 0.07, respectively, while the corresponding phenotypic correlations were -0.15 and 0.30, respectively. Genetic and phenotypic correlations between AFC and IBFSC were 0.35 and 0.37, respectively. Genetic correlation between MY and AFC showed desirable negative association, suggesting that daughters of the bulls with high breeding values for MY could reach physiological mature at a precocious age. Genetic correlation between MY and IBFSC, showed that the selection for milk production could result in the increase of calving intervals.

Estratégia para extração, transformação e armazenamento em Data Warehouse ativo baseada em políticas configuráveis de propagação de dados

Pós-graduação em Ciência da Computação - IBILCE

Composite interval mapping and mixed models reveal QTL associated with performance and carcass traits on chicken chromosomes 1, 3, and 4

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)