Forecasting day-ahead electricity load using a multiple equation time series approach

The quality of short-term electricity load forecasting is crucial to the operation and trading activities of market participants in an electricity market. In this paper, it is shown that a multiple equation time-series model, which is estimated by repeated application of ordinary least squares, has the potential to match or even outperform more complex nonlinear and nonparametric forecasting models. The key ingredient of the success of this simple model is the effective use of lagged information by allowing for interaction between seasonal patterns and intra-day dependencies. Although the model is built using data for the Queensland region of Australia, the method is completely generic and applicable to any load forecasting problem. The model’s forecasting ability is assessed by means of the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). For day-ahead forecast, the MAPE returned by the model over a period of 11 years is an impressive 1.36%. The forecast accuracy of the model is compared with a number of benchmarks including three popular alternatives and one industrial standard reported by the Australia Energy Market Operator (AEMO). The performance of the model developed in this paper is superior to all benchmarks and outperforms the AEMO forecasts by about a third in terms of the MAPE criterion.

Operational experience on a grid connected 100 kWe biomass gasification power plant in Karnataka, India

The paper reports the operational experience from a 100 kWe gasification power plant connected to the grid in Karnataka. Biomass Energy for Rural India (BERI) is a program that implemented gasification based power generation with an installed capacity of 0.88 MWe distributed over three locations to meet the electrical energy needs in the district of Tumkur. The operation of one 100 kWe power plant was found unsatisfactory and not meeting the designed performance. The Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, the technology developer, took the initiative to ensure the system operation, capacity building and prove the designed performance. The power plant connected to the grid consists of the IISc gasification system which includes reactor, cooling, cleaning system, fuel drier and water treatment system to meet the producer gas quality for an engine. The producer gas is used as a fuel in Cummins India Limited, GTA 855 G model, turbo charged engine and the power output is connected to the grid. The system has operated for over 1000 continuous hours, with only about 70 h of grid outages. The total biomass consumption for 1035 h of operation was 111 t at an average of 107 kg/h. Total energy generated was 80.6 MWh reducing over loot of CO(2) emissions. The overall specific fuel consumption was about 1.36 kg/kWh, amounting to an overall efficiency from biomass to electricity of about 18%. The present operations indicate that a maintenance schedule for the plant can be at the end of 1000 h. The results for another 1000 h of operation by the local team are also presented. (C) 2011 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

An insight into real-time performance assessment of a building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) installation in Bangalore (India)

Building integrated photovoltaic (BIPV) applications are gaining widespread popularity. The performance of any given BIPV system is dependent on prevalent meteorological factors, site conditions and system characteristics. Investigations pertaining to the performance assessment of photovoltaic (PV) systems are generally confined to either controlled environment-chambers or computer-based simulation studies. Such investigations fall short of providing a realistic insight into how a PV system actually performs real-time. Solar radiation and the PV cell temperature are amongst the most crucial parameters affecting PV output. The current paper deals with the real-time performance assessment of a recently commissioned 5.25 kW, BIPV system installed at the Center for Sustainable Technologies, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. The overall average system efficiency was found to be 6% for the period May 2011-April 2012. This paper provides a critical appraisal of PV system performance based on ground realities, particularly characteristic to tropical (moderate) regions such as Bangalore, India. (C) 2013 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Indicator-based urban sustainability-A review

Sustainability has emerged as one of the important planning concepts from its beginnings in economics and ecological thinking, and has widely been applied to assessing urban development. Different methods, techniques and instruments for urban sustainability assessment that help determine how cities can become more sustainable have emerged over a period of time. Among these, indicator-based approaches contribute to building of sustainable self-regulated systems that integrate development and environment protection. Hence, these provide a solid foundation for decision-making at all levels and are being increasingly used. The present paper builds on the background of the available literature and suggests the need for benchmarking indicator-based approach in a given urban area and incorporating various local issues, thus enhancing the long-term sustainability of cities which can be developed by introducing sustainability indicators into the urban planning process. (C) 2013 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Influence of surface area to volume ratio of fuel particles on gasification process in a fixed bed

The paper addresses the effect of particle size on tar generation in a fixed bed gasification system. Pyrolysis, a diffusion limited process, depends on the heating rate and the surface area of the particle influencing the release of the volatile fraction leaving behind residual char. The flaming time has been estimated for different biomass samples. It is found that the flaming time for wood flakes is almost one fourth than that of coconut shells for same equivalent diameter fuel samples. The particle density of the coconut shell is more than twice that of wood spheres, and almost four times compared with wood flakes; having a significant influence on the flaming time. The ratio of the particle surface area to that of an equivalent diameter is nearly two times higher for flakes compared with wood pieces. Accounting for the density effect, on normalizing with density of the particle, the flaming rate is double in the case of wood flakes or coconut shells compared with the wood sphere for an equivalent diameter. This is due to increased surface area per unit volume of the particle. Experiments are conducted on estimation of tar content in the raw gas for wood flakes and standard wood pieces. It is observed that the tar level in the raw gas is about 80% higher in the case of wood flakes compared with wood pieces. The analysis suggests that the time for pyrolysis is lower with a higher surface area particle and is subjected to fast pyrolysis process resulting in higher tar fraction with low char yield. Increased residence time with staged air flow has a better control on residence time and lower tar in the raw gas. (C) 2014 International Energy Initiative. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Cultivation of Pleurotus spp. on a combination of anaerobically digested plant material and various agro-residues

Two species of Pleurotus, Pleurotus florida and Pleurotus flabellatus were cultivated on two agro-residues (paddy straw; PS and coir pith; CP) singly as well as in combination with biogas digester residue (BDR, main feed leaf biomass). The biological efficiency, nutritional value, composition and nutrient balance (C, N and P) achieved with these substrates were studied. The most suitable substrate that produced higher yields and biological efficiency was PS mixed with BDR followed by coir pith with BDR. Addition of BDR with agro-residues could increase mushroom yield by 20-30%. The biological efficiency achieved was high for PS + BDR (231.93% for P. florida and 209.92% for P. flabellatus) and for CP + BDR (14831% for P. florida and 188.46% for P. flabellatus). The OC (organic carbon), TKN (nitrogen) and TP (phosphate) removal of the Pleurotus spp. under investigation suggests that PS with BDR is the best substrate for growing mushroom. (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier Inc. on behalf of International Energy Initiative.

A discretized proportional base driver for Silicon Carbide Bipolar Junction Transistors

Silicon Carbide Bipolar Junction Transistors require a continuous base current in the on-state. This base current is usually made constant and is corresponding to the maximum collector current and maximum junction temperature that is foreseen in a certain application. In this paper, a discretized proportional base driver is proposed which will reduce, for the right application, the steady-state power consumption of the base driver. The operation of the proposed base driver has been verified experimentally, driving a 1200V/40A SiC BJT in a DC-DC boost converter. In order to determine the potential reduction of the power consumption of the base driver, a case with a dc-dc converter in an ideal electric vehicle driving the new European drive cycle has been investigated. It is found that the steady-state power consumption of the base driver can be reduced by approximately 63 %. The total reduction of the driver consumption is 2816 J during the drive cycle, which is slightly more than the total on-state losses for the SiC BJTs used in the converter. © 2013 IEEE.

Tourism in Timor Leste: contributions to a sustainable development

The main goal of this thesis is to analyse tourism as a contributor to sustainable development, from a supply and demand perspective, in Timor-Leste, a destination not only “young” but also framed in an early stage of touristic development. From the supply side, studies 1 and 2 present a literature review on the concept of sustainable development, in small islands destinations, its weaknesses and vulnerabilities, and whose attractiveness lies in an integrated set of natural resources (attractive beaches, biodiversity, the coral triangle, a rich fauna and flora), its geographic location, tropical climate, socio cultural tradition and a Luso-Timorense cultural mix, that can meet the needs of important segments of the tourist demand. In these studies, the focus is on the residents’ attitudes in relation to sustainable development and, in particular, on the perceptions of local leaders about the importance of the operationalization of the concept. As Timor-Leste is a “young” destination, it is travel industry is still faced with several problems in order to be able to satisfy the demand and to meet the tourists’ motivations, preferences and requirements. In this perspective, the study 3 examines diaspora tourism, while a niche market, allowing for not only the entry of Timor-Leste in the international tourism market, but also an articulation between the people of Timor-Leste in the diasporas and the development of sustainable tourism . In general, the results show that the development of sustainable tourism cannot be successfully implemented without the involvement of all stakeholders such as residents, public sector (local government, policy makers, planners), private sector (tourism operators), and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) that include civil society, religious institutions, the academic community (the supply side), and Timorese diasporas tourists as consumers (the demand side).

CO2 reduction and efficiency in road freight traffic: measures, baseline and potential

The objective of our research was to analyse the relevant logistic factors influencing energy efficiency in road freight transport, while quantifying the potential for CO2 reduction. We carried out a survey and linked fuel consumption to transport performance parameters in 50 German haulage companies during 2003. Efficiency ranges from 0.8 tkm to 26 tkm for 1 kg CO2 emissions. The results show a high potential for improvements, given a low level of efficiency in vehicle usage and load factor, scarce use of lightweight vehicle design, incorrectly selected vehicle class and a high proportion of empty runs. Efficiency measures are poorly applied.