Project risk management:a combined analytic hierarchy process and decision tree approach

Time, cost and quality achievements on large-scale construction projects are uncertain because of technological constraints, involvement of many stakeholders, long durations, large capital requirements and improper scope definitions. Projects that are exposed to such an uncertain environment can effectively be managed with the application of risk management throughout the project life cycle. Risk is by nature subjective. However, managing risk subjectively poses the danger of non-achievement of project goals. Moreover, risk analysis of the overall project also poses the danger of developing inappropriate responses. This article demonstrates a quantitative approach to construction risk management through an analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and decision tree analysis. The entire project is classified to form a few work packages. With the involvement of project stakeholders, risky work packages are identified. As all the risk factors are identified, their effects are quantified by determining probability (using AHP) and severity (guess estimate). Various alternative responses are generated, listing the cost implications of mitigating the quantified risks. The expected monetary values are derived for each alternative in a decision tree framework and subsequent probability analysis helps to make the right decision in managing risks. In this article, the entire methodology is explained by using a case application of a cross-country petroleum pipeline project in India. The case study demonstrates the project management effectiveness of using AHP and DTA.

Selection of power market structure using the analytic hierarchy process

Selection of a power market structure from the available alternatives is an important activity within an overall power sector reform programme. The evaluation criteria for selection are both subjective as well as objective in nature and the selection of alternatives is characterised by their conflicting nature. This study demonstrates a methodology for power market structure selection using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple attribute decision-making technique, to model the selection methodology with the active participation of relevant stakeholders in a workshop environment. The methodology is applied to a hypothetical case of a State Electricity Board reform in India.

Application of analytic hierarchy process for measuring and comparing the global performance of intensive care units

Purpose: To develop a model for the global performance measurement of intensive care units (ICUs) and to apply that model to compare the services for quality improvement. Materials and Methods: Analytic hierarchy process, a multiple-attribute decision-making technique, is used in this study to evolve such a model. The steps consisted of identifying the critical success factors for the best performance of an ICU, identifying subfactors that influence the critical factors, comparing them pairwise, deriving their relative importance and ratings, and calculating the cumulative performance according to the attributes of a given ICU. Every step in the model was derived by group discussions, brainstorming, and consensus among intensivists. Results: The model was applied to 3 ICUs, 1 each in Barbados, Trinidad, and India in tertiary care teaching hospitals of similar setting. The cumulative performance rating of the Barbados ICU was 1.17 when compared with that of Trinidad and Indian ICU, which were 0.82 and 0.75, respectively, showing that the Trinidad and Indian ICUs performed 70% and 64% with respect to Barbados ICU. The model also enabled identifying specific areas where the ICUs did not perform well, which helped to improvise those areas. Conclusions: Analytic hierarchy process is a very useful model to measure the global performance of an ICU. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Watch that space! The county hierarchy in firm births and deaths in the UK, 1980-1999

The paper investigates the relationships between registrations, de-registrations and population density at county level in the UK using VAT data for 20 years over the period 1980–1999. The rationale for this is based on the need to understand how the extent to which, in different parts of the UK, differences in the relationship between birth rates and death rates combine to produce an interpretable pattern in net birth rates. The analysis of the net birth rate shows that a strategy aimed at the net birth rate might, in principle, just as well aim at reducing business failure, rather than raising the birth rate. Indeed this might be more efficient, since it implies that less start-ups are ‘‘wasted’’ as it would avoid the necessity, if targets are to be reached, of encouraging those individuals who are patently unsuited to running their own business into business ownership.

Integrated analytic hierarchy process and its applications:a literature review

Due to its wide applicability and ease of use, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) has been studied extensively for the last 20 years. Recently, it is observed that the focus has been confined to the applications of the integrated AHPs rather than the stand-alone AHP. The five tools that commonly combined with the AHP include mathematical programming, quality function deployment (QFD), meta-heuristics, SWOT analysis, and data envelopment analysis (DEA). This paper reviews the literature of the applications of the integrated AHPs. Related articles appearing in the international journals from 1997 to 2006 are gathered and analyzed so that the following three questions can be answered: (i) which type of the integrated AHPs was paid most attention to? (ii) which area the integrated AHPs were prevalently applied to? (iii) is there any inadequacy of the approaches? Based on the inadequacy, if any, some improvements and possible future work are recommended. This research not only provides evidence that the integrated AHPs are better than the stand-alone AHP, but also aids the researchers and decision makers in applying the integrated AHPs effectively.

Combining analytic hierarchy process and goal programming for logistics distribution network design

Logistics distribution network design is one of the major decision problems arising in contemporary supply chain management. The decision involves many quantitative and qualitative factors that may be conflicting in nature. This paper applies an integrated multiple criteria decision making approach to design an optimal distribution network. In the approach, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is used first to determine the relative importance weightings or priorities of alternative warehouses with respect to both deliverer oriented and customer oriented criteria. Then, the goal programming (GP) model incorporating the constraints of system, resource, and AHP priority is formulated to select the best set of warehouses without exceeding the limited available resources. In this paper, two commercial packages are used: Expert Choice for determining the AHP priorities of the warehouses, and LINDO for solving the GP model. © 2007 IEEE.

Measuring the operational performance of intensive care units using the analytic hierarchy process approach

Purpose - The purpose of this study is to develop a performance measurement model for service operations using the analytic hierarchy process approach. Design/methodology/approach - The study reviews current relevant literature on performance measurement and develops a model for performance measurement. The model is then applied to the intensive care units (ICUs) of three different hospitals in developing nations. Six focus group discussions were undertaken, involving experts from the specific area under investigation, in order to develop an understandable performance measurement model that was both quantitative and hierarchical. Findings - A combination of outcome, structure and process-based factors were used as a foundation for the model. The analyses of the links between them were used to reveal the relative importance of each and their associated sub factors. It was considered to be an effective quantitative tool by the stakeholders. Research limitations/implications - This research only applies the model to ICUs in healthcare services. Practical implications - Performance measurement is an important area within the operations management field. Although numerous models are routinely being deployed both in practice and research, there is always room for improvement. The present study proposes a hierarchical quantitative approach, which considers both subjective and objective performance criteria. Originality/value - This paper develops a hierarchical quantitative model for service performance measurement. It considers success factors with respect to outcomes, structure and processes with the involvement of the concerned stakeholders based upon the analytic hierarchy process approach. The unique model is applied to the ICUs of hospitals in order to demonstrate its effectiveness. The unique application provides a comparative international study of service performance measurement in ICUs of hospitals in three different countries. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Beyond the formal/informal economy binary hierarchy

Purpose – This paper aims to evaluate critically the conventional binary hierarchical representation of the formal/informal economy dualism which reads informal employment as a residual and marginal sphere that has largely negative consequences for economic development and needs to be deterred. Design/methodology/approach – To contest this depiction, the results of 600 household interviews conducted in Ukraine during 2005/2006 on the extent and nature of their informal employment are reported. Findings – Informal employment is revealed to be an extensively used form of work and, through a richer and more textured understanding of the multiple roles that different forms of informal employment play, a form of work that positively contributes to economic and social development, acting both as an important seedbed for enterprise creation and development and as a primary vehicle through which community self-help is delivered in contemporary Ukraine. Research limitations/implications – This survey reveals that depicting informal employment as a hindrance to development and deterring engagement in this sphere results in state authorities destroying the entrepreneurial endeavour and active citizenship that other public policies are seeking to nurture. The paper concludes by addressing how this public policy paradox might start to be resolved. Originality/value – This paper is one of the first to document the role of informal employment in nurturing enterprise creation and development as well as community exchange.

Which is the best solar thermal collection technology for electricity generation in north-west India? Evaluation of options using the analytical hierarchy process

This study of concentrating solar thermal power generation sets out to evaluate the main existing collection technologies using the framework of the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP). It encompasses parabolic troughs, heliostat fields, linear Fresnel reflectors, parabolic dishes, compound parabolic concentrators and linear Fresnel lenses. These technologies are compared based on technical, economic and environmental criteria. Within these three categories, numerous sub-criteria are identified; similarly sub-alternatives are considered for each technology. A literature review, thermodynamic calculations and an expert workshop have been used to arrive at quantitative and qualitative assessments. The methodology is applied principally to a case study in Gujarat in north-west India, though case studies based on the Sahara Desert, Southern Spain and California are included for comparison. A sensitivity analysis is carried out for Gujarat. The study concludes that the linear Fresnel lens with a secondary compound parabolic collector, or the parabolic dish reflector, is the preferred technology for north-west India.

Hierarchy of governance institutions and the pecking order of privatisation

This article discusses property rights, corporate governance frameworks and privatisation outcomes in the Central–Eastern Europe and Central Asia (CEECA) region. We argue that while CEECA still suffers from deficient ‘higher order’ institutions, this is not attracting sufficient attention from international institutions like EBRD and the World Bank, which focus on ‘lower order’ indicators. We discuss factors that may alleviate the negative impact of the weakness in institutional environment and argue for the pecking order of privatisation, where equivalent privatisation is given a priority but speed is not compromised.

Green supply chain performance measurement using the analytic hierarchy process:a comparative analysis of manufacturing organisations

The main purpose of this research is to develop and deploy an analytical framework for measuring the environmental performance of manufacturing supply chains. This work's theoretical bases combine and reconcile three major areas: supply chain management, environmental management and performance measurement. Researchers have suggested many empirical criteria for green supply chain (GSC) performance measurement and proposed both qualitative and quantitative frameworks. However, these are mainly operational in nature and specific to the focal company. This research develops an innovative GSC performance measurement framework by integrating supply chain processes (supplier relationship management, internal supply chain management and customer relationship management) with organisational decision levels (both strategic and operational). Environmental planning, environmental auditing, management commitment, environmental performance, economic performance and operational performance are the key level constructs. The proposed framework is then applied to three selected manufacturing organisations in the UK. Their GSC performance is measured and benchmarked by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), a multiple-attribute decision-making technique. The AHP-based framework offers an effective way to measure and benchmark organisations’ GSC performance. This study has both theoretical and practical implications. Theoretically it contributes holistic constructs for designing a GSC and managing it for sustainability; and practically it helps industry practitioners to measure and improve the environmental performance of their supply chain. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC. CORRIGENDUM DOI 10.1080/09537287.2012.751186 In the article ‘Green supply chain performance measurement using the analytic hierarchy process: a comparative analysis of manufacturing organisations’ by Prasanta Kumar Dey and Walid Cheffi, Production Planning & Control, 10.1080/09537287.2012.666859, a third author is added which was not included in the paper as it originally appeared. The third author is Breno Nunes.

Building and applying a concept hierarchy representation of a user profile

Term dependence is a natural consequence of language use. Its successful representation has been a long standing goal for Information Retrieval research. We present a methodology for the construction of a concept hierarchy that takes into account the three basic dimensions of term dependence. We also introduce a document evaluation function that allows the use of the concept hierarchy as a user profile for Information Filtering. Initial experimental results indicate that this is a promising approach for incorporating term dependence in the way documents are filtered.