First look at changes in flood hazard in the inter-sectoral impact model intercomparison project ensemble

Climate change due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions is expected to increase the frequency and intensity of precipitation events, which is likely to affect the probability of flooding into the future. In this paper we use river flow simulations from nine global hydrology and land surface models to explore uncertainties in the potential impacts of climate change on flood hazard at global scale. As an indicator of flood hazard we looked at changes in the 30-y return level of 5-d average peak flows under representative concentration pathway RCP8.5 at the end of this century. Not everywhere does climate change result in an increase in flood hazard: decreases in the magnitude and frequency of the 30-y return level of river flow occur at roughly one-third (20-45%) of the global land grid points, particularly in areas where the hydro-graph is dominated by the snowmelt flood peak in spring. In most model experiments, however, an increase in flooding frequency was found in more than half of the grid points. The current 30-y flood peak is projected to occur in more than 1 in 5 y across 5-30% of land grid points. The large-scale patterns of change are remarkably consistent among impact models and even the driving climate models, but at local scale and in individual river basins there can be disagreement even on the sign of change, indicating large modeling uncertainty which needs to be taken into account in local adaptation studies.

Climate change projections and selected impacts for Vietnam

In September 2013, the 5th Assessment Report (5AR) of the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has been released. Taking the 5AR cli-mate change scenarios into account, the World Bank published an earli-er report on climate change and its impacts on selected hot spot re-gions, including Southeast Asia. Currently, dynamical and statistical-dynamical downscaling efforts are underway to obtain higher resolution and more robust regional climate change projections for tropical South-east Asia, including Vietnam. Such initiatives are formalized under the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) Coordinated Regional Dynamic Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) East Asia and Southeast Asia and also take place in climate change impact projects such as the joint Vietnam-ese-German project “Environmental and Water Protection Technologies of Coastal Zones in Vietnam (EWATEC-COAST)”. In this contribution, the lat-est assessments for changes in temperature, precipitation, sea level, and tropical cyclones (TCs) under the 5AR Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 are reviewed. Special emphasis is put on changes in extreme events like heat waves and/or heavy precipita-tion. A regional focus is Vietnam south of 16°N. A continued increase in mean near surface temperature is projected, reaching up to 5°C at the end of this century in northern Vietnam un-der the high greenhouse-gas forcing scenario RCP8.5. Overall, project-ed changes in annual precipitation are small, but there is a tendency of more rainfall in the boreal winter dry season. Unprecedented heat waves and an increase in extreme precipitation events are projected by both global and regional climate models. Globally, TCs are projected to decrease in number, but an increase in intensity of peak winds and rain-fall in the inner core region is estimated. Though an assessment of changes in land-falling frequency in Vietnam is uncertain due to difficul-ties in assessing changes in TC tracks, some work indicates a reduction in the number of land-falling TCs in Vietnam. Sea level may rise by 75-100 cm until the end of the century with the Vietnamese coastline experienc-ing 10-15% higher rise than on global average. Given the large rice and aquaculture production in the Mekong and Red River Deltas, that are both prone to TC-related storm surges and flooding, this poses a challenge to foodsecurity and protection of coastal population and assets.

Direct and ozone-mediated forcing of the Southern Annular Mode by greenhouse gases

We assess the roles of long-lived greenhouse gases and ozone depletion in driving meridional surface pressure gradients in the southern extratropics; these gradients are a defining feature of the Southern Annular Mode. Stratospheric ozone depletion is thought to have caused a strengthening of this mode during summer, with increasing long-lived greenhouse gases playing a secondary role. Using a coupled atmosphere-ocean chemistry-climate model, we show that there is cancelation between the direct, radiative effect of increasing greenhouse gases by the also substantial indirect—chemical and dynamical—feedbacks that greenhouse gases have via their impact on ozone. This sensitivity of the mode to greenhouse gas-induced ozone changes suggests that a consistent implementation of ozone changes due to long-lived greenhouse gases in climate models benefits the simulation of this important aspect of Southern Hemisphere climate.

ENSO and greenhouse warming

The El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Niño events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Niño. The frequency of extreme La Niña is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Niños, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available.

Perdas de nutrientes e matéria orgânica por erosão em entressulcos em argissolo com resíduos de cana-de-açúcar

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Oxidation photochemistry in the remote marine boundary layer

Die bedeutendste Folge der Luftverschmutzung ist eine erhöhte Konzentration an Ozon (O3) in der Troposphäre innerhalb der letzten 150 Jahre. Ozon ist ein photochemisches Oxidationsmittel und ein Treibhausgas, das als wichtigste Vorstufe des Hydroxyradikals OH die Oxidationskraft der Atmosphäre stark beeinflusst. Um die Oxidationskraft der Atmosphäre und ihren Einfluss auf das Klima verstehen zu können, ist es von großer Bedeutung ein detailliertes Wissen über die Photochemie des Ozons und seiner Vorläufer, den Stickoxiden (NOx), in der Troposphäre zu besitzen. Dies erfordert das Verstehen der Bildungs- und Abbaumechanismen von Ozon und seiner Vorläufer. Als eine für den chemischen Ozonabbau wichtige Region kann die vom Menschen weitgehend unberührte marine Grenzschicht (Marine boundary layer (MBL)) angesehen werden. Bisher wurden für diese Region jedoch kaum Spurengasmessungen durchgeführt, und so sind die dort ablaufenden photochemischen Prozesse wenig untersucht. Da etwa 70 % der Erdoberfläche mit Ozeanen bedeckt sind, können die in der marinen Granzschicht ablaufenden Prozesse als signifikant für die gesamte Atmosphäre angesehen werden. Dies macht eine genaue Untersuchung dieser Region interessant. Um die photochemische Produktion und den Abbau von Ozon abschätzen zu können und den Einfluss antrophogener Emissionen auf troposphärisches Ozon zu quantifizieren, sind aktuelle Messergebnisse von NOx im pptv-Bereich für diese Region erforderlich. Die notwendigen Messungen von NO, NO2, O3, JNO2, J(O1D), HO2, OH, ROx sowie einiger meteorologischer Parameter wurden während der Fahrt des französischen Forschungsschiffes Marion-Dufresne auf dem südlichen Atlantik (28°S-57°S, 46°W-34°E) im März 2007 durchgeführt. Dabei sind für NO und NO2 die bisher niedrigsten gemessenen Werte zu verzeichnen. Die während der Messcampagne gewonnen Daten wurden hinsichtlich Ihrer Übereinstimmung mit den Bedingungen des photochemischen stationären Gleichgewichts (photochemical steady state (PSS)) überprüft. Dabei konnte eine Abweichung vom PSS festgestellt werden, welche unter Bedingungen niedriger NOx-Konzentrationen (5 bis 25pptv) einen unerwarteten Trend im Leighton-Verhältnis bewirkt, der abhängig vom NOx Mischungsverhältnis und der JNO2 Intensität ist. Signifikante Abweichungen vom Verhältnis liegen bei einer Zunahme der JNO2 Intensität vor. Diese Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Abweichung vom PSS nicht beim Minimum der NOx-Konzentrationen und der JNO2 Werte liegt, so wie es in bisherigen theoretischen Studien dargelegt wurde und können als Hinweis auf weitere photochemische Prozesse bei höheren JNO2-Werten in einem System mit niedrigem NOx verstanden werden. Das wichtigste Ergebnis dieser Untersuchung, ist die Verifizierung des Leighton-Verhältnisses, das zur Charakterisierung des PSS dient, bei sehr geringen NOx-Konzentrationen in der MBL. Die bei dieser Doktorarbeit gewonnenen Erkenntnisse beweisen, dass unter den Bedingungen der marinen Granzschicht rein photochemischer Abbau von Ozon stattfindet und als Hauptursache hierfür während des Tages die Photolyse gilt. Mit Hilfe der gemessenen Parameter wurde der kritische NO-Level auf Werte zwischen 5 und 9 pptv abgeschätzt, wobei diese Werte im Vergleich zu bisherigen Studien vergleichsweise niedrig sind. Möglicherweise bedeutet dies, dass das Ozon Produktion/ Abbau-Potential des südlichen Atlantiks deutlich stärker auf die Verfügbarkeit von NO reagiert, als es in anderen Regionen der Fall ist. Im Rahmen der Doktorarbeit wurde desweiteren ein direkter Vergleich der gemessenen Spezies mit dem Modelergebnis eines 3-dimensionalen Zirkulationsmodel zur Simulation atmosphären chemischer Prozesse (EMAC) entlang der exakten Schiffsstrecke durchgeführt. Um die Übereinstimmung der Messergebnisse mit dem bisherigen Verständnis der atmosphärischen Radikalchemie zu überprüfen, wurde ein Gleichgewichtspunktmodel entwickelt, das die während der Überfahrt erhaltenen Daten für Berechungen verwendet. Ein Vergleich zwischen der gemessenen und der modellierten ROx Konzentrationen in einer Umgebung mit niedrigem NOx zeigt, dass die herkömmliche Theorie zur Reproduktion der Beobachtungen unzureichend ist. Die möglichen Gründe hierfür und die Folgen werden in dieser Doktorarbeit diskutiert.

Biogeochemical indicators of peatland degradation – a case study of a temperate bog in Northern Germany

Organic soils in peatlands store a great proportion of the global soil carbon pool and can lose carbon via the atmosphere due to degradation. In Germany, most of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from organic soils are attributed to sites managed as grassland. Here, we investigated a land use gradient from near-natural wetland (NW) to an extensively managed (GE) to an intensively managed grassland site (GI), all formed in the same bog complex in northern Germany. Vertical depth profiles of δ13C, δ15N, ash content, C / N ratio and bulk density as well as radiocarbon ages were studied to identify peat degradation and to calculate carbon loss. At all sites, including the near-natural site, δ13C depth profiles indicate aerobic decomposition in the upper horizons. Depth profiles of δ15N differed significantly between sites with increasing δ15N values in the top soil layers paralleling an increase in land use intensity owing to differences in peat decomposition and fertilizer application. At both grassland sites, the ash content peaked within the first centimetres. In the near-natural site, ash contents were highest in 10–60 cm depth. The ash profiles, not only at the managed grassland sites, but also at the near-natural site indicate that all sites were influenced by anthropogenic activities either currently or in the past, most likely due to drainage. Based on the enrichment of ash content and changes in bulk density, we calculated the total carbon loss from the sites since the peatland was influenced by anthropogenic activities. Carbon loss at the sites increased in the following order: NW < GE < GI. Radiocarbon ages of peat in the topsoil of GE and GI were hundreds of years, indicating the loss of younger peat material. In contrast, peat in the first centimetres of the NW was only a few decades old, indicating recent peat growth. It is likely that the NW site accumulates carbon today but was perturbed by anthropogenic activities in the past. Together, all biogeochemical parameters indicate a degradation of peat due to (i) conversion to grassland with historical drainage and (ii) land use intensification.

Planktonic foraminiferal oxygen isotopes of ODP Site 143-865 samples

Cool tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are reported for warm Paleogene greenhouse climates based on the d18O of planktonic foraminiferal tests. These results are difficult to reconcile with models of greenhouse gas-forced climate. It has been suggested that this "cool tropics paradox" arises from postdepositional alteration of foraminiferal calcite, yielding erroneously high d18O values. Recrystallization of foraminiferal tests is cryptic and difficult to quantify, and the compilation of robust d18O records from moderately altered material remains challenging. Scanning electron microscopy of planktonic foraminiferal chamber-wall cross sections reveals that the basal area of muricae, pustular outgrowths on the chamber walls of species belonging to the genus Morozovella, contain no mural pores and may be less susceptible to postdepositional alteration. We analyzed the d18O in muricae bases of morozovellids from the central Pacific (Ocean Drilling Program Site 865) by ion microprobe using 10 ?m pits with an analytical reproducibility of ±0.34 per mil (2 standard deviations). In situ measurements of d18O in these domains yield consistently lower values than those published for conventional multispecimen analyses. Assuming that the original d18O is largely preserved in the basal areas of muricae, this new d18O record indicates Early Paleogene (~49-56 Ma) tropical SSTs in the central Pacific were 4°-8°C higher than inferred from the previously published d18O record and that SSTs reached at least ~33°C during the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum. This study demonstrates the utility of ion microprobe analysis for generating more reliable paleoclimate records from moderately altered foraminiferal tests preserved in deep-sea sediments.

Gas composition, concentration and stable isotope ratios (Table 2, 3, 4)

The deployment of CCS (carbon capture and storage) at industrial scale implies the development of effective monitoring tools. Noble gases are tracers usually proposed to track CO2. This methodology, combined with the geochemistry of carbon isotopes, has been tested on available analogues. At first, gases from natural analogues were sampled in the Colorado Plateau and in the French carbogaseous provinces, in both well-confined and leaking-sites. Second, we performed a 2-years tracing experience on an underground natural gas storage, sampling gas each month during injection and withdrawal periods. In natural analogues, the geochemical fingerprints are dependent on the containment criterion and on the geological context, giving tools to detect a leakage of deep-CO2 toward surface. This study also provides information on the origin of CO2, as well as residence time of fluids within the crust and clues on the physico-chemical processes occurring during the geological story. The study on the industrial analogue demonstrates the feasibility of using noble gases as tracers of CO2. Withdrawn gases follow geochemical trends coherent with mixing processes between injected gas end-members. Physico-chemical processes revealed by the tracing occur at transient state. These two complementary studies proved the interest of geochemical monitoring to survey the CO2 behaviour, and gave information on its use.

Hydrate abundances at the high-flux Batumi seep area in the southeastern Black Sea

Submarine gas hydrates are a major global reservoir of the potent greenhouse gas methane. Since current assessments of worldwide hydrate-bound carbon vary by one order of magnitude, new technical efforts are required for improved and accurate hydrate quantifications. Here we present hydrate abundances determined for surface sediments at the high-flux Batumi seep area in the southeastern Black Sea at 840 m water depth using state-of-the art autoclave technology. Pressure sediment cores of up to 2.65 m in length were recovered with an autoclave piston corer backed by conventional gravity cores. Quantitative core degassing yielded volumetric gas/bulk sediment ratios of up to 20.3 proving hydrate presence. The cores represented late glacial to Holocene hemipelagic sediments with the shallowest hydrates found at 90 cmbsf. Calculated methane concentrations in the different cores surpassed methane equilibrium concentrations in the two lowermost lithological Black Sea units sampled. The results indicated hydrate fractions of 5.2% of pore volume in the sapropelic Unit 2 and mean values of 21% pore volume in the lacustrine Unit 3. We calculate that the studied area of ~ 0.5 km**2 currently contains about 11.3 kt of methane bound in shallow hydrates. Episodic detachment and rafting of such hydrates is suggested by a rugged seafloor topography along with variable thicknesses in lithologies. We propose that sealing by hydrate precipitation in coarse-grained deposits and gas accumulation beneath induces detachment of hydrate/sediment chunks. Floating hydrates will rapidly transport methane into shallower waters and potentially to the sea-atmosphere boundary. In contrast, persistent in situ dissociation of shallow hydrates appears unlikely in the near future as deep water warming by about 1.6 °C and/or decrease in hydrostatic pressure corresponding to a sea level drop of about 130 m would be required. Because hydrate detachment should be primarily controlled by internal factors in this area and in similar hydrated settings, it serves as source of methane in shallow waters and the atmosphere which is mainly decoupled from external forcing.

Towards mitigation of greenhouse gases by small changes in farming practices: understanding local barriers in Spain.

Small changes in agricultural practices have a large potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. However, the implementation of such practices at the local level is often limited by a range of barriers. Understanding the barriers is essential for defining effective measures, the actual mitigation potential of the measures, and the policy needs to ensure implementation. Here we evaluate behavioural, cultural, and policy barriers for implementation of mitigation practices at the local level that imply small changes to farmers. The choice of potential mitigation practices relevant to the case study is based on a literature review of previous empirical studies. Two methods that include the stakeholders? involvement (experts and farmers) are undertaken for the prioritization of these potential practices: (a) Multi-criteria analysis (MCA) of the choices of an expert panel and (b) Analysis of barriers to implementation based on a survey of farmers. The MCA considers two future climate scenarios ? current climate and a drier and warmer climate scenario. Results suggest that all potential selected practices are suitable for mitigation considering multiple criteria in both scenarios. Nevertheless, if all the barriers for implementation had the same influence, the preferred mitigation practices in the case study would be changes in fertilization management and use of cover crops. The identification of barriers for the implementation of the practices is based on the econometric analysis of surveys given to farmers. Results show that farmers? environmental concerns, financial incentives and access to technical advice are the main factors that define their barriers to implementation. These results may contribute to develop effective mitigation policy to be included in the 2020 review of the European Union Common Agricultural Policy.

Potential effects of gas hydrate on human welfare

For almost 30 years. serious interest has been directed toward natural gas hydrate, a crystalline solid composed of water and methane, as a potential (i) energy resource, (ii) factor in global climate change, and (iii) submarine geohazard. Although each of these issues can affect human welfare, only (iii) is considered to be of immediate importance. Assessments of gas hydrate as an energy resource have often been overly optimistic, based in part on its very high methane content and on its worldwide occurrence in continental margins. Although these attributes are attractive, geologic settings, reservoir properties, and phase-equilibria considerations diminish the energy resource potential of natural gas hydrate. The possible role of gas hydrate in global climate change has been often overstated. Although methane is a “greenhouse” gas in the atmosphere, much methane from dissociated gas hydrate may never reach the atmosphere, but rather may be converted to carbon dioxide and sequestered by the hydrosphere/biosphere before reaching the atmosphere. Thus, methane from gas hydrate may have little opportunity to affect global climate change. However, submarine geohazards (such as sediment instabilities and slope failures on local and regional scales, leading to debris flows, slumps, slides, and possible tsunamis) caused by gas-hydrate dissociation are of immediate and increasing importance as humankind moves to exploit seabed resources in ever-deepening waters of coastal oceans. The vulnerability of gas hydrate to temperature and sea level changes enhances the instability of deep-water oceanic sediments, and thus human activities and installations in this setting can be affected.

Climate Change Policy & the Natural Gas Transmission Sector

Various emission reduction strategies are proposed to manage climate change in the U.S. This applied capstone evaluates the most likely policy options considering impacts and benefits to the natural gas transmission sector (NGT). It examines a case-study including a comparison of policy options to recommend the most beneficial program to the NGT sector. Two conclusions of major importance are: a federally preempted cap-and-trade program would be the most cost-effective for the NGT sector and the NGT sector should not be the point of regulation of any climate policy. Recommendations, strategies, and costs for implementation of a compliance plan for a federally preempted cap-and-trade program were developed as a tool for NGT companies as part of this applied capstone project.

An Analysis of U.S. Air Force Policy and Installation CO2 Emissions to Determine Best Practices for the Implementation of Executive Order 13514

United States Air Force (USAF) energy policy is a measured but aggressive response to federal energy policy guidance. Previous USAF efforts, like those of the federal government, focused primarily on energy intensity reduction, cost, and BTU savings, and in certain cases have resulted in facility greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions. The USAF now faces the challenge of integrating GHG reduction goals and inventory requirements set forth in Executive Order 13514. Using USAF reported energy consumption data, facility GHG emission estimates have been synthesized to identify trends and elucidate existing energy best practices to be applied as part of overarching USAF GHG mitigation efforts and to highlight areas of possible concern for the integration of EO 13514 into operational USAF policy.

The Social and Economic Impacts of a Washington State Carbon Tax

Thesis (Master's)--University of Washington, 2016-06