A hidden Markov model approach for determining vessel activity from vessel monitoring system data.

Many fisheries worldwide have adopted vessel monitoring systems (VMS) for compliance purposes. An added benefit of these systems is that they collect a large amount of data on vessel locations at very fine spatial and temporal scales. This data can provide a wealth of information for stock assessment, research, and management. However, since most VMS implementations record vessel location at set time intervals with no regard to vessel activity, some methodology is required to determine which data records correspond to fishing activity. This paper describes a probabilistic approach, based on hidden Markov models (HMMs), to determine vessel activity. A HMM provides a natural framework for the problem and, by definition, models the intrinsic temporal correlation of the data. The paper describes the general approach that was developed and presents an example of this approach applied to the Queensland trawl fishery off the coast of eastern Australia. Finally, a simulation experiment is presented that compares the misallocation rates of the HMM approach with other approaches.

A Bayesian hurdle model for analysis of an insect resistance monitoring database

Motivated by the analysis of the Australian Grain Insect Resistance Database (AGIRD), we develop a Bayesian hurdle modelling approach to assess trends in strong resistance of stored grain insects to phosphine over time. The binary response variable from AGIRD indicating presence or absence of strong resistance is characterized by a majority of absence observations and the hurdle model is a two step approach that is useful when analyzing such a binary response dataset. The proposed hurdle model utilizes Bayesian classification trees to firstly identify covariates and covariate levels pertaining to possible presence or absence of strong resistance. Secondly, generalized additive models (GAMs) with spike and slab priors for variable selection are fitted to the subset of the dataset identified from the Bayesian classification tree indicating possibility of presence of strong resistance. From the GAM we assess trends, biosecurity issues and site specific variables influencing the presence of strong resistance using a variable selection approach. The proposed Bayesian hurdle model is compared to its frequentist counterpart, and also to a naive Bayesian approach which fits a GAM to the entire dataset. The Bayesian hurdle model has the benefit of providing a set of good trees for use in the first step and appears to provide enough flexibility to represent the influence of variables on strong resistance compared to the frequentist model, but also captures the subtle changes in the trend that are missed by the frequentist and naive Bayesian models. © 2014 Springer Science+Business Media New York.

The Ethics of a Co-regulatory Model for Farm Animal Welfare Research

Standards for farm animal welfare are variously managed at a national level by government-led regulatory control, by consumer-led welfare economics and co-regulated control in a partnership between industry and government. In the latter case the control of research to support animal welfare standards by the relevant industry body may lead to a conflict of interest on the part of researchers, who are dependent on industry for continued research funding. We examine this dilemma by reviewing two case studies of research published under an Australian co-regulated control system. Evidence of unsupported conclusions that are favourable to industry is provided, suggesting that researchers do experience a conflict of interest that may influence the integrity of the research. Alternative models for the management of research are discussed, including the establishment of an independent research management body for animal welfare because of its public good status and the use of public money derived from taxation, with representation from government, industry, consumers, and advocacy groups.

Spirituality of Finnish peacekeepers

The previous academic research on Finnish peacekeeping has clarified the operative and historical aspects of Finnish peacekeeping lacking the view of an individual who does the actual peacekeeping work. This research is based on the underlying theoretical assumption of human beings possessing different kinds of talents and intelligences creating a holistic entity. In this broad perspective spirituality was explored as an umbrella concept, as a holistic ability or talent, that can be explored as the deepest aspect of defining what it means to be human. The theoretical framework incorporated the concept of an intelligence, which is defined in Gardner's theory of multiple intelligences as the ability to solve problems, or to create products, that are valued within one or more cultural settings (Gardner, 1993, x). The viability of this theory was studied in the sample of Finnish peacekeepers. Spirituality in the theoretical and conceptual horizon was viewed as an extension of Gardner's theory of intelligences as one potential Gardnerian intelligence candidate. In addition to Gardner's theory, spirituality was explored as sensitivity which includes capacities such as sensing awareness, sensing mystery and sensing value (Hay, 1998). Also the practical aspects of spirituality were taken in account as shown in our everyday lives giving us the direction and influencing our social responsibilities and concerns (Bradford, 1995). Spirituality was explored also involving the element of the peacekeepers' community, the element of personal moral orientations and in the domain of religion and coping. The purpose of this research aimed in two dimensions. First, the aim was to outline the intelligence profile and the spiritual sensitivity profile of peacekeepers. Second, the aim was to understand qualitatively the nature of peacekeepers' spirituality The research interests were studied with different kinds of peacekeepers. Applying the mixed methods approach the research was conducted in two phases: first the former SFOR peacekeepers (N=6) were interviewed and the data was analysed. Inspired by the primary findings of these interviews, the data for the case-study of one peacekeeper was collected in co-operation with one former SFOR peacekeeper (N=1). In the second phase the data was collected from KFOR peacekeepers through the quantitative MI-Survey and the spiritual sensitivity survey (N=195). The quantitative method was used to outline the intelligence profile and the spiritual sensitivity profile of peacekeepers (N=195). In the mixed methods approach this method highlighted the general overview of intelligence traits and spiritual sensitivity of peacekeepers. In the mixed methods approach the qualitative method including interviews (N=6) and a case-study of one peacekeeper (N=1) increased subjective, qualitative information of spirituality of peacekeepers. The intelligence profile of peacekeepers highlighted the bodily-kinesthetic and interpersonal dimensions as the practical and social aspects of peacekeepers. Strong inter-item dependencies in the intrapersonal intelligence profile meant that peacekeepers possess a self-reflection and self-knowledge component and they reflect on deep psychological and philosophical issues. Regarding the spiritual sensitivity, peacekeepers found awareness-sensing, mystery-sensing, value-sensing and community-sensing important. The community-sensing emphasised a strong will to advance peace and to help people who are in need: things that are close to the heart of the peacekeepers. These results depicted practicality, being socially capable, and reflecting one's inner world as essential to peacekeepers. Moreover, spirituality as peacekeepers' moral endeavour became clearer because the sub-model of their community-sensing described morally charged destinations: advancing peace and helping people in need. In the qualitative findings peacekeepers articulated justice orientation and rule-following characterising the nature of peacekeepers' moral attitude and moral call (Kohlberg, 1969). An ethic of care (Gilligan, 1982) describes mainly female moral orientation, but the findings revealed that an ethic of care is also an important agent supporting strongly male peacekeepers in their aim to carry out qualitatively good peacekeeping work. The moral endeavour was voiced, when the role of religion in coping meant the assessment of the a way of life, a way of conduct, a way of being truthful to one's own values in confusing surroundings. The practical level of spiritual and religious contemplation was voiced as morally charged inner motivation to fulfil one's duties and at the same time to cope with various peacekeeping challenges. The results of different data sets were combined and interpreted as the moral endeavour, which characterises peacekeepers' spirituality. As the combining result, the perspective of peacekeepers' spirituality is considered moral or at least morally charged.

Mathematical model and rule extraction for tool wear monitoring problem using nature inspired techniques

In this paper, pattern classification problem in tool wear monitoring is solved using nature inspired techniques such as Genetic Programming(GP) and Ant-Miner (AM). The main advantage of GP and AM is their ability to learn the underlying data relationships and express them in the form of mathematical equation or simple rules. The extraction of knowledge from the training data set using GP and AM are in the form of Genetic Programming Classifier Expression (GPCE) and rules respectively. The GPCE and AM extracted rules are then applied to set of data in the testing/validation set to obtain the classification accuracy. A major attraction in GP evolved GPCE and AM based classification is the possibility of obtaining an expert system like rules that can be directly applied subsequently by the user in his/her application. The performance of the data classification using GP and AM is as good as the classification accuracy obtained in the earlier study.

Semi-active vibration isolation using a near-zero-spring-rate device:steady state analysis of a single-degree-of-freedom model

A vibration isolator is described which incorporates a near-zero-spring-rate device within its operating range. The device is an assembly of a vertical spring in parallel with two inclined springs. A low spring rate is achieved by combining the equivalent stiffness in the vertical direction of the inclined springs with the stiffness of the vertical central spring. It is shown that there is a relation between the geometry and the stiffness of the individual springs that results in a low spring rate. Computer simulation studies of a single-degree-of-freedom model for harmonic base input show that the performance of the proposed scheme is superior to that of the passive schemes with linear springs and skyhook damping configuration. The response curves show that, for small to large amplitudes of base disturbance, the system goes into resonance at low frequencies of excitation. Thus, it is possible to achieve very good isolation over a wide low-frequency band. Also, the damper force requirements for the proposed scheme are much lower than for the damper force of a skyhook configuration or a conventional linear spring with a semi-active damper.

An adiabatic model for a two-stage double-inlet pulse tube refrigerator

A numerical modelling technique for predicting the detailed performance of a double-inlet type two-stage pulse tube refrigerator has been developed. The pressure variations in the compressor, pulse tube, and reservoir were derived, assuming the stroke volume variation of the compressor to be sinusoidal. The relationships of mass flowrates, volume flowrates, and temperature as a function of time and position were developed. The predicted refrigeration powers are calculated by considering the effect of void volumes and the phase shift between pressure and mass flowrate. These results are compared with the experimental results of a specific pulse tube refrigerator configuration and an existing theoretical model. The analysis shows that the theoretical predictions are in good agreement with each other.

Mitochondrial helicase Twinkle in mtDNA copy number regulation and a late-onset disease model

Mitochondrial diseases are caused by disturbances of the energy metabolism. The disorders range from severe childhood neurological diseases to muscle diseases of adults. Recently, mitochondrial dysfunction has also been found in Parkinson s disease, diabetes, certain types of cancer and premature aging. Mitochondria are the power plants of the cell but they also participate in the regulation of cell growth, signaling and cell death. Mitochondria have their own genetic material, mtDNA, which contains the genetic instructions for cellular respiration. Single cell may host thousands of mitochondria and several mtDNA molecules may reside inside single mitochondrion. All proteins needed for mtDNA maintenance are, however, encoded by the nuclear genome, and therefore, mutations of the corresponding genes can also cause mitochondrial disease. We have here studied the function of mitochondrial helicase Twinkle. Our research group has previously identified nuclear Twinkle gene mutations underlying an inherited adult-onset disorder, progressive external ophthalmoplegia (PEO). Characteristic for the PEO disease is the accumulation of multiple mtDNA deletions in tissues such as the muscle and brain. In this study, we have shown that Twinkle helicase is essential for mtDNA maintenance and that it is capable of regulating mtDNA copy number. Our results support the role of Twinkle as the mtDNA replication helicase. No cure is available for mitochondrial disease. Good disease models are needed for studies of the cause of disease and its progression and for treatment trials. Such disease model, which replicates the key features of the PEO disease, has been generated in this study. The model allows for careful inspection of how Twinkle mutations lead to mtDNA deletions and further causes the PEO disease. This model will be utilized in a range of studies addressing the delay of the disease onset and progression and in subsequent treatment trials. In conclusion, in this thesis fundamental knowledge of the function of the mitochondrial helicase Twinkle was gained. In addition, the first model for adult-onset mitochondrial disease was generated.

Open-access more harm than good in developing world

The traditional 'publish for free and pay to read' business model adopted by publishers of academic journals can lead to disparity in access to scholarly literature, exacerbated by rising journal costs and shrinking library budgets. However, although the 'pay to publish and read for free' business model of open-access publishing has helped to create a level playing field for readers, it does more harm than good in the developing world.

Humanitaarisuuden varjossa : Poliittiset tekijät lastensiirroissa Ruotsiin sotiemme aikana ja niiden jälkeen

The evacuation of Finnish children to Sweden during WW II has often been called a small migration . Historical research on this subject is scarce, considering the great number of children involved. The present research has applied, apart from the traditional archive research, the framework of history-culture developed by Rüsen in order to have an all-inclusive approach to the impact of this historical event. The framework has three dimensions: political, aesthetic and cognitive. The collective memory of war children has also been discussed. The research looks for political factors involved in the evacuations during the Winter War and the Continuation War and the post-war period. The approach is wider than a purely humanitarian one. Political factors have had an impact in both Finland and Sweden, beginning from the decision-making process and ending with the discussion of the unexpected consequences of the evacuations in the Finnish Parliament in 1950. The Winter War (30.11.1939 13.3.1940) witnessed the first child transports. These were also the model for future decision making. The transports were begun on the initiative of Swedes Maja Sandler, the wife of the resigned minister of foreign affairs Rickard Sandler, and Hanna Rydh-Munck af Rosenschöld , but this activity was soon accepted by the Swedish government because the humanitarian help in the form of child transports lightened the political burden of Prime Minister Hansson, who was not willing to help Finland militarily. It was help that Finland never asked for and it was rejected at the beginning. The negative response of Minister Juho Koivisto was not taken very seriously. The political forces in Finland supporting child transports were stronger than those rejecting them. The major politicians in support belonged to Finland´s Swedish minority. In addition, close to 1 000 Finnish children remained in Sweden after the Winter War. No analysis was made of the reasons why these children did not return home. A committee set up to help Finland and Norway was established in Sweden in 1941. Its chairman was Torsten Nothin, an influential Swedish politician. In December 1941 he appealed to the Swedish government to provide help to Finnish children under the authority of The International Red Cross. This plea had no results. The delivery of great amounts of food to Finland, which was now at war with Great Britain, had automatically caused reactions among the allies against the Swedish imports through Gothenburg. This included the import of oil, which was essential for the Swedish navy and air force. Oil was later used successfully to force a reduction in commerce between Sweden and Finland. The contradiction between Sweden´s essential political interests and humanitarian help was solved in a way that did not harm the country´s vital political interests. Instead of delivering help to Finland, Finnish children were transported to Sweden through the organisations that had already been created. At the beginning of the Continuation War (25.6.1941 27.4.1945) negative opinion regarding child transports re-emerged in Finland. Karl-August Fagerholm implemented the transports in September 1941. In 1942, members of the conservative parties in the Finnish Parliament expressed their fear of losing the children to the Swedes. They suggested that Finland should withdraw from the inter-Nordic agreement, according to which the adoptions were approved by the court of the country where the child resided. This initiative failed. Paavo Virkkunen, an influential member of the conservative party Kokoomus in Finland, favoured the so-called good-father system, where help was delivered to Finland in the form of money and goods. Virkkunen was concerned about the consequences of a long stay in a Swedish family. The risk of losing the children was clear. The extreme conservative party (IKL, the Patriotic Movement of the Finnish People) wanted to alienate Finland from Sweden and bring Finland closer to Germany. Von Blücher, the German ambassador to Finland, had in his report to Berlin, mentioned the political consequences of the child transports. Among other things, they would bring Finland and Sweden closer to each other. He had also paid attention to the Nordic political orientation in Finland. He did not question or criticize the child transports. His main interest was to increase German political influence in Finland, and the Nordic political orientation was an obstacle. Fagerholm was politically ill-favoured by the Germans, because he had a strong Nordic political disposition and had criticised Germany´s activities in Norway. The criticism of child transports was at the same time criticism of Fagerholm. The official censorship organ of the Finnish government (VTL) denied the criticism of child transports in January 1942. The reasons were political. Statements made by members of the Finnish Parliament were also censored, because it was thought that they would offend the Swedes. In addition, the censorship organ used child transports as a means of active propaganda aimed at improving the relations between the two countries. The Finnish Parliament was informed in 1948 that about 15 000 Finnish children still remained in Sweden. These children would stay there permanently. In 1950 the members of the Agrarian Party in Finland stated that Finland should actively strive to get the children back. The party on the left (SKDL, the Democratic Movement of Finnish People) also focused on the unexpected consequences of the child transports. The Social Democrats, and largely Fagerholm, had been the main force in Finland behind the child transports. Members of the SKDL, controlled by Finland´s Communist Party, stated that the war time authorities were responsible for this war loss. Many of the Finnish parents could not get their children back despite repeated requests. The discussion of the problem became political, for example von Born, a member of the Swedish minority party RKP, related this problem to foreign policy by stating that the request to repatriate the Finnish children would have negative political consequences for the relations between Finland and Sweden. He emphasized expressing feelings of gratitude to the Swedes. After the war a new foreign policy was established by Prime Minister (1944 1946) and later President (1946 1956) Juho Kusti Paasikivi. The main cornerstone of this policy was to establish good relations with the Soviet Union. The other, often forgotten, cornerstone was to simultaneously establish good relations with other Nordic countries, especially Sweden, as a counterbalance. The unexpected results of the child evacuation, a Swedish initiative, had violated the good relations with Sweden. The motives of the Democratic Movement of Finnish People were much the same as those of the Patriotic Movement of Finnish People. Only the ideology was different. The Nordic political orientation was an obstacle to both parties. The position of the Democratic Movement of Finnish People was much better than that of the Patriotic Movement of Finnish People, because now one could clearly see the unexpected results, which included human tragedy for the many families who could not be re-united with their children despite their repeated requests. The Swedes questioned the figure given to the Finnish Parliament regarding the number of children permanently remaining in Sweden. This research agrees with the Swedes. In a calculation based on Swedish population registers, the number of these children is about 7 100. The reliability of this figure is increased by the fact that the child allowance programme began in Sweden in 1948. The prerequisite to have this allowance was that the child be in the Swedish population register. It was not necessary for the child to have Swedish nationality. The Finnish Parliament had false information about the number of Finnish children who remained in Sweden in 1942 and in 1950. There was no parliamentary control in Finland regarding child transports, because the decision was made by one cabinet member and speeches by MPs in the Finnish Parliament were censored, like all criticism regarding child transports to Sweden. In Great Britain parliamentary control worked better throughout the whole war, because the speeches regarding evacuation were not censored. At the beginning of the war certain members of the British Labour Party and the Welsh Nationalists were particularly outspoken about the scheme. Fagerholm does not discuss to any great extent the child transports in his memoirs. He does not evaluate the process and results as a whole. This research provides some possibilities for an evaluation of this sort. The Swedish medical reports give a clear picture of the physical condition of the Finnish children when arriving in Sweden. The transports actually revealed how bad the situation of the poorest children was. According to Titmuss, similar observations were made in Great Britain during the British evacuations. The child transports saved the lives of approximately 2 900 children. Most of these children were removed to Sweden to receive treatment for illnesses, but many among the healthy children were undernourished and some suffered from the effects of tuberculosis. The medical inspection in Finland was not thorough. If you compare the figure of 2 900 children saved and returned with the figure of about 7 100 children who remained permanently in Sweden, you may draw the conclusion that Finland as a country failed to benefit from the child transports, and that the whole operation was a political mistake with far-reaching consequenses. The basic goal of the operation was to save lives and have all the children return to Finland after the war. The difficulties with the repatriation of the children were mainly psychological. The level of child psychology in Finland at that time was low. One may question the report by Professor Martti Kaila regarding the adaptation of children to their families back in Finland. Anna Freud´s warnings concerning the difficulties that arise when child evacuees return are also valid in Finland. Freud viewed the emotional life of children in a way different from Kaila: the physical survival of a small child forces her to create strong emotional ties to the person who is looking after her. This, a characteristic of all small children, occurred with the Finnish children too, and it was something the political decision makers in Finland could not see during and after the war. It is a characteristic of all little children. Yet, such experiences were already evident during the Winter War. The best possible solution had been to limit the child transports only to children in need of medical treatment. Children from large and poor families had been helped by organising meals and by buying food from Denmark with Swedish money. Assisting Finland by all possible means should have been the basic goal of Fagerholm in September 1941, when the offer of child transports came from Sweden. Fagerholm felt gratitude towards the Swedes. The risks became clear to him only in 1943. The war children are today a rather scattered and diffuse group of people. Emotionally, part of these children remained in Sweden after the war. There is no clear collective memory, only individual memories; the collective memory of the war children has partly been shaped later through the activities of the war child associations. The main difference between the children evacuated in Finland (for example from Karelia to safer areas with their families) and the war children, who were sent abroad, is that the war children lack a shared story and experience with their families. They were outsiders . The whole matter is sensitive to many of such mothers and discussing the subject has often been avoided in families. The war-time censorship has continued in families through silence and avoidance and Finnish politicians and Finnish families had to face each other on this issue after the war. The lack of all-inclusive historical research has also prevented the formation of a collective awareness among war children returned to Finland or those remaining permanently abroad.. Knowledge of historical facts will help war-children by providing an opportunity to create an all-inclusive approach to the past. Personal experiences should be regarded as part of a large historical entity shadowed by war and where many political factors were at work in both Finland and Sweden. This means strengthening of the cognitive dimension discussed in Rüsen´s all-inclusive historical approach.

Simplified theory of carrier back-scattering in semiconducting carbon nanotubes: A Kane's model approach

We present a simplified yet analytical formulation of the carrier backscattering coefficient for zig-zag semiconducting single walled carbon nanotubes under diffusive regime. The electron-phonon scattering rate for longitudinal acoustic, optical, and zone-boundary phonon emissions for both inter- and intrasubband transition rates have been derived using Kane's nonparabolic energy subband model.The expressions for the mean free path and diffusive resistance have been formulated incorporating the aforementioned phonon scattering. Appropriate overlap function in Fermi's golden rule has been incorporated for a more general approach. The effect of energy subbands on low and high bias zones for the onset of longitudinal acoustic, optical, and zone-boundary phonon emissions and absorption have been analytically addressed. 90% transmission of the carriers from the source to the drain at 400 K for a 5 mu m long nanotube at 105 V m(-1) has been exhibited. The analytical results are in good agreement with the available experimental data. (c) 2010 American Institute of Physics.

Two-Phase Thermodynamic Model for Efficient and Accurate Absolute Entropy of Water from Molecular Dynamics Simulations

Presented here is the two-phase thermodynamic (2PT) model for the calculation of energy and entropy of molecular fluids from the trajectory of molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. In this method, the density of state (DoS) functions (including the normal modes of translation, rotation, and intramolecular vibration motions) are determined from the Fourier transform of the corresponding velocity autocorrelation functions. A fluidicity parameter (f), extracted from the thermodynamic state of the system derived from the same MD, is used to partition the translation and rotation modes into a diffusive, gas-like component (with 3Nf degrees of freedom) and a nondiffusive, solid-like component. The thermodynamic properties, including the absolute value of entropy, are then obtained by applying quantum statistics to the solid component and applying hard sphere/rigid rotor thermodynamics to the gas component. The 2PT method produces exact thermodynamic properties of the system in two limiting states: the nondiffusive solid state (where the fluidicity is zero) and the ideal gas state (where the fluidicity becomes unity). We examine the 2PT entropy for various water models (F3C, SPC, SPC/E, TIP3P, and TIP4P-Ew) at ambient conditions and find good agreement with literature results obtained based on other simulation techniques. We also validate the entropy of water in the liquid and vapor phases along the vapor-liquid equilibrium curve from the triple point to the critical point. We show that this method produces converged liquid phase entropy in tens of picoseconds, making it an efficient means for extracting thermodynamic properties from MD simulations.

Drosophila indirect flight muscle specific Act88F actin mutants as a model system for studying congenital myopathies of the human ACTA1 skeletal muscle actin gene

Most human ACTA1 skeletal actin gene mutations cause dominant, congenital myopathies often with severely reduced muscle function and neonatal mortality. High sequence conservation of actin means many mutated ACTA1 residues are identical to those in the Drosophila Act88F, an indirect flight muscle specific sarcomeric actin. Four known Act88F mutations occur at the same actin residues mutated in ten ACTA1 nemaline mutations, A138D/P, R256H/L, G268C/D/R/S and R372C/S. These Act88F mutants were examined for similar muscle phenotypes. Mutant homozygotes show phenotypes ranging from a lack of myofibrils to almost normal sarcomeres at eclosion. Aberrant Z-disc-like structures and serial Z-disc arrays, ‘zebra bodies’, are observed in homozygotes and heterozygotes of all four Act88F mutants. These electron-dense structures show homologies to human nemaline bodies/rods, but are much smaller than those typically found in the human myopathy. We conclude that the Drosophila indirect flight muscles provide a good model system for studying ACTA1 mutations.

A speech-music discriminator using HILN model based features

We propose a simple speech music discriminator that uses features based on HILN(Harmonics, Individual Lines and Noise) model. We have been able to test the strength of the feature set on a standard database of 66 files and get an accuracy of around 97%. We also have tested on sung queries and polyphonic music and have got very good results. The current algorithm is being used to discriminate between sung queries and played (using an instrument like flute) queries for a Query by Humming(QBH) system currently under development in the lab.

An elastic-viscoplastic constitutive model for the hot-forming of aluminum alloys

Under hot-forming conditions characterized by high homologous temperatures and strain-rates, metals usually exhibit rate-dependent inelastic behavior. An elastic-viscoplastic constitutive model is presented here to describe metal behavior during hot-forming. The model uses an isotropic internal variable to represent the resistance offered to plastic deformation by the microstructure. Evolution equations are developed for the inelastic strain and the deformation resistance based on experimental results. A methodology is presented for extracting model parameters from constant true strain-rate compression tests performed at different temperatures. Model parameters are determined for an Al-1Mn alloy and an Al-Mg-Si alloy, and the predictions of the model are shown to be in good agreement with the experimental data. (C) 2000 Kluwer Academic Publishers.