Projected changes in medicanes in the HadGEM3 N512 high-resolution global climate model

Medicanes or “Mediterranean hurricanes” represent a rare and physically unique type of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclone. There are similarities with tropical cyclones with regard to their development (based on the thermodynamical disequilibrium between the warm sea and the overlying troposphere) and their kinematic and thermodynamical properties (medicanes are intense vortices with a warm core and even a cloud-free eye). Although medicanes are smaller and their wind speeds are lower than in tropical cyclones, the severity of their winds can cause substantial damage to islands and coastal areas. Concern about how human-induced climate change will affect extreme events is increasing. This includes the future impacts on medicanes due to the warming of the Mediterranean waters and the projected changes in regional atmospheric circulation. However, most global climate models do not have high enough spatial resolution to adequately represent small features such as medicanes. In this study, a cyclone tracking algorithm is applied to high resolution global climate model data with a horizontal grid resolution of approximately 25 km over the Mediterranean region. After a validation of the climatology of general Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones, changes in medicanes are determined using climate model experiments with present and future forcing. The magnitude of the changes in the winds, frequency and location of medicanes is assessed. While no significant changes in the total number of Mediterranean mesoscale cyclones are found, medicanes tend to decrease in number but increase in intensity. The model simulation suggests that medicanes tend to form more frequently in the Gulf of Lion–Genoa and South of Sicily.

Occupational class differences in suicide: evidence of changes over time and during the global financial crisis in Australia

BACKGROUND: Previous research showed an increase in Australian suicide rates during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC). There has been no research investigating whether suicide rates by occupational class changed during the GFC. The aim of this study was to investigate whether the GFC-associated increase in suicide rates in employed Australians may have masked changes by occupational class.

METHODS: Negative binomial regression models were used to investigate Rate Ratios (RRs) in suicide by occupational class. Years of the GFC (2007, 2008, 2009) were compared to the baseline years 2001-2006.

RESULTS: There were widening disparities between a number of the lower class occupations and the highest class occupations during the years 2007, 2008, and 2009 for males, but less evidence of differences for females.

CONCLUSIONS: Occupational disparities in suicide rates widened over the GFC period. There is a need for programs to be responsive to economic downturns, and to prioritise the occupational groups most affected.

Effects of a dexmedetomidine constant rate infusion and atropine on changes in global perfusion variables induced by hemorrhage followed by volume replacement in isoflurane-anesthetized dogs

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Changes in the intermediate water mass formation rates in the global ocean for the Last Glacial Maximum, mid-Holocene and pre-industrial climates

The paleoclimate version of the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate System Model version 3 (NCAR-CCSM3) is used to analyze changes in the water formation rates in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian Oceans for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), mid-Holocene (MH) and pre-industrial (PI) control climate. During the MH, CCSM3 exhibits a north-south asymmetric response of intermediate water subduction changes in the Atlantic Ocean, with a reduction of 2 Sv in the North Atlantic and an increase of 2 Sv in the South Atlantic relative to PI. During the LGM, there is increased formation of intermediate water and a more stagnant deep ocean in the North Pacific. The production of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) is significantly weakened. The NADW is replaced in large extent by enhanced Antarctic Intermediate Water (AAIW), Glacial North Atlantic Intermediate Water (GNAIW), and also by an intensified of Antarctic Bottom Water (AABW), with the latter being a response to the enhanced salinity and ice formation around Antarctica. Most of the LGM intermediate/mode water is formed at 27.4 < sigma(theta) < 29.0 kg/m(3), while for the MH and PI most of the subduction transport occurs at 26.5 < sigma(theta) < 27.4 kg/m(3). The simulated LGM Southern Hemisphere winds are more intense by 0.2-0.4 dyne/cm(2). Consequently, increased Ekman transport drives the production of intermediate water (low salinity) at a larger rate and at higher densities when compared to the other climatic periods.

Trends, drivers and impacts of changes in swidden cultivation in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers: A global assessment

This meta-analysis of land-cover transformations of the past 10-15 years in tropical forest-agriculture frontiers world-wide shows that swidden agriculture decreases in landscapes with access to local, national and international markets that encourage cattle production and cash cropping, including biofuels. Conservation policies and practices also accelerate changes in swidden by restricting forest clearing and encouraging commercial agriculture. However, swidden remains important in many frontier areas where farmers have unequal or insecure access to investment and market opportunities, or where multi-functionality of land uses has been preserved as a strategy to adapt to current ecological, economic and political circumstances. In some areas swidden remains important simply because intensification is not a viable choice, for example when population densities and/or food market demands are low. The transformation of swidden landscapes into more intensive land uses has generally increased household incomes, but has also led to negative effects on the social and human capital of local communities to varying degrees. From an environmental perspective, the transition from swidden to other land uses often contributes to permanent deforestation, loss of biodiversity, increased weed pressure, declines in soil fertility, and accelerated soil erosion. Our prognosis is that, despite the global trend towards land use intensification, in many areas swidden will remain part of rural landscapes as the safety component of diversified systems, particularly in response to risks and uncertainties associated with more intensive land use systems. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Developmental changes of BOLD signal correlations with global human EEG power and synchronization during working memory

In humans, theta band (5-7 Hz) power typically increases when performing cognitively demanding working memory (WM) tasks, and simultaneous EEG-fMRI recordings have revealed an inverse relationship between theta power and the BOLD (blood oxygen level dependent) signal in the default mode network during WM. However, synchronization also plays a fundamental role in cognitive processing, and the level of theta and higher frequency band synchronization is modulated during WM. Yet, little is known about the link between BOLD, EEG power, and EEG synchronization during WM, and how these measures develop with human brain maturation or relate to behavioral changes. We examined EEG-BOLD signal correlations from 18 young adults and 15 school-aged children for age-dependent effects during a load-modulated Sternberg WM task. Frontal load (in-)dependent EEG theta power was significantly enhanced in children compared to adults, while adults showed stronger fMRI load effects. Children demonstrated a stronger negative correlation between global theta power and the BOLD signal in the default mode network relative to adults. Therefore, we conclude that theta power mediates the suppression of a task-irrelevant network. We further conclude that children suppress this network even more than adults, probably from an increased level of task-preparedness to compensate for not fully mature cognitive functions, reflected in lower response accuracy and increased reaction time. In contrast to power, correlations between instantaneous theta global field synchronization and the BOLD signal were exclusively positive in both age groups but only significant in adults in the frontal-parietal and posterior cingulate cortices. Furthermore, theta synchronization was weaker in children and was--in contrast to EEG power--positively correlated with response accuracy in both age groups. In summary we conclude that theta EEG-BOLD signal correlations differ between spectral power and synchronization and that these opposite correlations with different distributions undergo similar and significant neuronal developments with brain maturation.

Subsecond changes of global brain state in illusory multistable motion perception

This study explored transient changes in EEG microstates and spatial Omega complexity associated with changes in multistable perception. 21-channel EEG was recorded from 13 healthy subjects viewing an alternating dot pattern that induced illusory motion with ambiguous direction. Baseline epochs with stable motion direction were compared to epochs immediately preceding stimuli that were perceived with changed motion direction ('reference stimuli'). About 750 ms before reference stimuli, Omega complexity decreased as compared to baseline, and two of four classes of EEG microstates changed their probability of occurrence. About 300 ms before reference stimuli, Omega complexity increased and the previous deviations of EEG microstates were reversed. Given earlier results on Omega complexity and microstates, these sub-second EEG changes might parallel longer-lasting fluctuations in vigilance. Assumedly, the discontinuities of illusory motion thus occur during sub-second dips in arousal, and the following reconstruction of the illusion coincides with a state of relative over-arousal.

Model-based changes in global annual mean surface temperature change (Delta T_g) and radiative forcing due to land ice albedo changes (Delta R_[LI]) over the last 5 Myr, supplementary material

It is still an open question how equilibrium warming in response to increasing radiative forcing - the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity S - depends on background climate. We here present palaeodata-based evidence on the state dependency of S, by using CO2 proxy data together with a 3-D ice-sheet-model-based reconstruction of land ice albedo over the last 5 million years (Myr). We find that the land ice albedo forcing depends non-linearly on the background climate, while any non-linearity of CO2 radiative forcing depends on the CO2 data set used. This non-linearity has not, so far, been accounted for in similar approaches due to previously more simplistic approximations, in which land ice albedo radiative forcing was a linear function of sea level change. The latitudinal dependency of ice-sheet area changes is important for the non-linearity between land ice albedo and sea level. In our set-up, in which the radiative forcing of CO2 and of the land ice albedo (LI) is combined, we find a state dependence in the calculated specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], for most of the Pleistocene (last 2.1 Myr). During Pleistocene intermediate glaciated climates and interglacial periods, S[CO2,LI] is on average ~ 45 % larger than during Pleistocene full glacial conditions. In the Pliocene part of our analysis (2.6-5 Myr BP) the CO2 data uncertainties prevent a well-supported calculation for S[CO2,LI], but our analysis suggests that during times without a large land ice area in the Northern Hemisphere (e.g. before 2.82 Myr BP), the specific equilibrium climate sensitivity, S[CO2,LI], was smaller than during interglacials of the Pleistocene. We thus find support for a previously proposed state change in the climate system with the widespread appearance of northern hemispheric ice sheets. This study points for the first time to a so far overlooked non-linearity in the land ice albedo radiative forcing, which is important for similar palaeodata-based approaches to calculate climate sensitivity. However, the implications of this study for a suggested warming under CO2 doubling are not yet entirely clear since the details of necessary corrections for other slow feedbacks are not fully known and the uncertainties that exist in the ice-sheet simulations and global temperature reconstructions are large.

An evaluation of the performance of cDNA microarrays for detecting changes in global mRNA expression

The cDNA microarray is one technological approach that has the potential to accurately measure changes in global mRNA expression levels. We report an assessment of an optimized cDNA microarray platform to generate accurate, precise and reliable data consistent with the objective of using microarrays as an acquisition platform to populate gene expression databases. The study design consisted of two independent evaluations with 70 arrays from two different manufactured lots and used three human tissue sources as samples: placenta, brain and heart. Overall signal response was linear over three orders of magnitude and the sensitivity for any element was estimated to be 2 pg mRNA. The calculated coefficient of variation for differential expression for all non-differentiated elements was 12–14% across the entire signal range and did not vary with array batch or tissue source. The minimum detectable fold change for differential expression was 1.4. Accuracy, in terms of bias (observed minus expected differential expression ratio), was less than 1 part in 10 000 for all non-differentiated elements. The results presented in this report demonstrate the reproducible performance of the cDNA microarray technology platform and the methods provide a useful framework for evaluating other technologies that monitor changes in global mRNA expression.

Changes in global gene expression patterns during development and maturation of the rat kidney

We set out to define patterns of gene expression during kidney organogenesis by using high-density DNA array technology. Expression analysis of 8,740 rat genes revealed five discrete patterns or groups of gene expression during nephrogenesis. Group 1 consisted of genes with very high expression in the early embryonic kidney, many with roles in protein translation and DNA replication. Group 2 consisted of genes that peaked in midembryogenesis and contained many transcripts specifying proteins of the extracellular matrix. Many additional transcripts allied with groups 1 and 2 had known or proposed roles in kidney development and included LIM1, POD1, GFRA1, WT1, BCL2, Homeobox protein A11, timeless, pleiotrophin, HGF, HNF3, BMP4, TGF-α, TGF-β2, IGF-II, met, FGF7, BMP4, and ganglioside-GD3. Group 3 consisted of transcripts that peaked in the neonatal period and contained a number of retrotransposon RNAs. Group 4 contained genes that steadily increased in relative expression levels throughout development, including many genes involved in energy metabolism and transport. Group 5 consisted of genes with relatively low levels of expression throughout embryogenesis but with markedly higher levels in the adult kidney; this group included a heterogeneous mix of transporters, detoxification enzymes, and oxidative stress genes. The data suggest that the embryonic kidney is committed to cellular proliferation and morphogenesis early on, followed sequentially by extracellular matrix deposition and acquisition of markers of terminal differentiation. The neonatal burst of retrotransposon mRNA was unexpected and may play a role in a stress response associated with birth. Custom analytical tools were developed including “The Equalizer” and “eBlot,” which contain improved methods for data normalization, significance testing, and data mining.