New Zealand climate in the Neogene and implications for global atmospheric circulation

New Zealand has a good Neogene plant fossil record. During the Miocene it was without high topography and it was highly maritime, meaning that its climate, and the resulting vegetation, would be controlled dominantly by zonal climate conditions. Its vegetation record during this time suggests the climate passed from an ever-wet and cool but frostless phase in the Early Miocene in which Nothofagus subgenus Brassospora was prominent. Then it became seasonally dry, with vegetation in which palms and Eucalyptus were prominent and fires were frequent, and in the mid-Miocene, it developed a dry-climate vegetation dominated by Casuarinaceae. These changes are reflected in a sedimentological change from acidic to alkaline chemistry and the appearance of regular charcoal in the record. The vegetation then changed again to include a prominent herb component including Chenopodiaceae and Asteraceae. Sphagnum became prominent, and Nothofagus returned, but mainly as the subgenus Fuscospora (presently restricted to temperate climates). This is interpreted as a return to a generally wet, but now cold climate, in which outbreaks of cold polar air and frost were frequent. The transient drying out of a small maritime island and the accompanying vegetation/climate sequence could be explained by a higher frequency of the Sub-Tropical High Pressure (STHP) cells (the descending limbs of the Hadley cells) over New Zealand during the Miocene. This may have resulted from an increased frequency of 'blocking', a synoptic situation which occurs in the region today. An alternative hypothesis, that the global STHP belt lay at a significantly higher latitude in the early Neogene (perhaps 55degreesS) than today (about 30degreesS), is considered less likely because of physical constraints on STHP belt latitude. In either case, the difference between the early Neogene and present situation may have been a response to an increased polar-equatorial temperature gradient. This contrasts with current climate models for the geological past in which the latitude of the High Pressure belt impact is held invariant though geological time. (C) 2003 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimates of global and regional potential health gains from reducing multiple major risk factors

Background Estimates of the disease burden due to multiple risk factors can show the potential gain from combined preventive measures. But few such investigations have been attempted, and none on a global scale. Our aim was to estimate the potential health benefits from removal of multiple major risk factors. Methods We assessed the burden of disease and injury attributable to the joint effects of 20 selected leading risk factors in 14 epidemiological subregions of the world. We estimated population attributable fractions, defined as the proportional reduction in disease or mortality that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to an alternative level, from data for risk factor prevalence and hazard size. For every disease, we estimated joint population attributable fractions, for multiple risk factors, by age and sex, from the direct contributions of individual risk factors. To obtain the direct hazards, we reviewed publications and re-analysed cohort data to account for that part of hazard that is mediated through other risks. Results Globally, an estimated 47% of premature deaths and 39% of total disease burden in 2000 resulted from the joint effects of the risk factors considered. These risks caused a substantial proportion of important diseases, including diarrhoea (92%-94%), lower respiratory infections (55-62%), lung cancer (72%), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (60%), ischaemic heart disease (83-89%), and stroke (70-76%). Removal of these risks would have increased global healthy life expectancy by 9.3 years (17%) ranging from 4.4 years (6%) in the developed countries of the western Pacific to 16.1 years (43%) in parts of sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Removal of major risk factors would not only increase healthy life expectancy in every region, but also reduce some of the differences between regions, The potential for disease prevention and health gain from tackling major known risks simultaneously would be substantial.

Usefulness of quantitative echocardiographic techniques to predict recovery of regional and global left ventricular function after acute myocardial infarction

The left ventricular response to dobutamine may be quantified using tissue Doppler measurement of myocardial velocity or displacement or 3-dimensional echocardiography to measure ventricular volume and ejection fraction. This study sought to explore the accuracy of these methods for predicting segmental and global responses to therapy. Standard dobutamine and 3-dimensional echocardiography were performed in 92 consecutive patients with abnormal left ventricular function at rest. Recovery of function was defined by comparison with follow-up echocardiography at rest 5 months later. Segments that showed improved regional function at follow-up showed a higher increment in peak tissue Doppler velocity with dobutamine therapy than in nonviable segments (1.2 +/- 0.4 vs 0.3 +/- 0.2 cm/s, p = 0.001). Similarly, patients who showed a > 5% improvement of ejection fraction at follow-up showed a greater displacement response to dobutamine (6.9 +/- 3.2 vs 2.1 +/- 2.3 mm, p = 0.001), as well as a higher rate of ejection fraction, response to dobutamine (9 +/- 3% vs 2 +/- 2%, p = 0.001). The optimal cutoff values for predicting subsequent recovery of function at rest were an increment of peak velocity > 1 cm/s, >5 mm of displacement, and a >5% improvement of ejection fraction with low-dose dobutamine. (C) 2003 by Excerpta Medica, Inc.

A global health problem caused by arsenic from natural sources

Arsenic is a carcinogen to both humans and animals. Arsenicals have been associated with cancers of the skin, lung, and bladder. Clinical manifestations of chronic arsenic poisoning include non-cancer end point of hyper- and hypo-pigmentation, keratosis, hypertension, cardiovascular diseases and diabetes. Epidemiological evidence indicates that arsenic concentration exceeding 50 mug l(-1) in the drinking water is not public health protective. The current WHO recommended guideline value for arsenic in drinking water is 10 mug l(-1), whereas many developing countries are still having a value of 50 mug 1(-1). It has been estimated that tens of millions of people are. at risk exposing to excessive levels of arsenic from both contaminated water and arsenic-bearing coal from natural sources. The global health implication and possible intervention strategies were also discussed in this review article. (C) 2003 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Measuring the accumulated hazards of smoking: global and regional estimates for 2000

Objective: Current prevalence of smoking, even where data are available, is a poor proxy for cumulative hazards of smoking, which depend on several factors including the age at which smoking began, duration of smoking, number of cigarettes smoked per day, degree of inhalation, and cigarette characteristics such as tar and nicotine content or filter type. Methods: We extended the Peto-Lopez smoking impact ratio method to estimate accumulated hazards of smoking for different regions of the world. Lung cancer mortality data were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease mortality database. The American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase 11 (CPS-II) with follow up for the years 1982 to 1988 was the reference population. For the global application of the method, never-smoker lung cancer mortality rates were chosen based on the estimated use of coal for household energy in each region. Results: Men in industrialised countries of Europe, North America, and the Western Pacific had the largest accumulated hazards of smoking. Young and middle age males in many regions of the developing world also had large smoking risks. The accumulated hazards of smoking for women were highest in North America followed by Europe. Conclusions: In the absence of detailed data on smoking prevalence and history, lung cancer mortality provides a robust indicator of the accumulated hazards of smoking. These hazards in developing countries are currently more concentrated among young and middle aged males.

Estimates of global mortality attributable to smoking in 2000

Background Smoking is a risk factor for several diseases and has been increasing in many developing countries. Our aim was to estimate global and regional mortality in 2000 caused by smoking, including an analysis of uncertainty. Methods Following the methods of Peto and colleagues, we used lung-cancer mortality as an indirect marker for accumulated smoking risk. Never-smoker lung-cancer mortality was estimated based on the household use of coal with poor ventilation. Relative risks were taken from the American Cancer Society Cancer Prevention Study, phase II, and the retrospective proportional mortality analysis of Liu and colleagues in China. Relative risks were corrected for confounding and extrapolation to other regions. Results We estimated that in 2000, 4.83 (uncertainty range 3.94-5.93) million premature deaths in the world were attributable to smoking; 2.41 (1.80-3.15) million in developing countries and 2.43 (2.13-2.78) million in industrialised countries. 3.84 million of these deaths were in men. The leading causes of death from smoking were cardiovascular diseases (1.69 million deaths), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (0.97 million deaths), and lung cancer (0.85 million deaths). Interpretation Smoking was an important cause of global mortality in 2000. In view of the expected demographic and epidemiological transitions and current smoking patterns in the developing world, the health loss due to smoking will grow even larger unless effective interventions and policies that reduce smoking among men and prevent increases among women in developing countries are implemented.

O “método global” e o ensino da leitura na escola primária no Estado do Espírito Santo : (anos de 1960)

Esta pesquisa tematizou o ensino inicial da leitura na escola primária, no estado do Espírito Santo, nos anos de 1960, com o objetivo de analisar princípios que fundamentam o “método global” e sua apropriação no campo da política educacional, para justificar a representação desse método como eficaz para a alfabetização de crianças. Para tanto, nos debruçamos sobre manuais didáticos elaborados para o ensino inicial da leitura, que propõem o “método global” por meio de contos e historietas, que circularam em escolas capixabas. Desse modo a questão central que norteou esta investigação foi: Que apropriações foram feitas de princípios que fundamentavam o “método global” pelas professoras autoras de manuais didáticos (de contos e historietas) que circularam no Estado do Espírito Santo, nos anos de 1960? Os manuais didáticos que integram o corpus documental da análise compreendem: as mais belas histórias: pré-livro, parte do mestre [196?]; as mais belas histórias: pré-livro (1964) e as mais belas histórias: pré-livro, bloco de atividades [196?], de autoria Lúcia Casasanta. O livro de Lilí: método global, manual da professora (1940) e o livro de Lilí: cartilha (1961), de Anita Fonseca e o circo do Carequinha, manual do professor (1969), de Maria Serafina de Freitas. Além dessas fontes privilegiamos outras como revista pedagógica, correspondências oficiais, ata de reunião pedagógica, jornal, orientações/prescrições para prática pedagógica. Consideramos na análise o esquema conceitual apresentado por Roger Chartier: circulação, representação, apropriação e práticas culturais e, ainda o conceito de cultura escolar de Dominique Julia. Compreende-se que foram feitas apropriações inventivas, dos princípios teóricos formulados por Jean-Ovide Decroly, pelas autoras dos manuais didáticos e estes puseram em circulação a representação de método e de ensino da leitura que foi apropriada e legitimada pela política educacional capixaba. Entende-se que a proposta do “método global” não provocou significativas modificações na condição de passividade do aluno no processo de aprendizagem da leitura, tendo em vista a naturalização dos processos de desenvolvimento da criança e permanência de procedimentos mecanicista e reducionista da língua.

Antecipando o futuro: a agenda política para a governança econômica global

Este artigo analisa a agenda política para a governança econômica global para os próximos cinqüenta anos. Segundo o autor, o grande crescimento populacional proveniente dos países pobres induzirá uma maior participação desses países na tomada de decisão no âmbito internacional, fomentando a troca de informações e experiências entre os países ricos e pobres. Por fim, há uma breve explanação de outras razões pelas quais os países emergentes deveriam ter maior voz na governança econômica global.

Unipolaridade, governabilidade global e intervenção unilateral anglo-americana no Iraque

As intervenções humanitárias (Bósnia 1995-2003, Somália 1992-1993, Kosovo 1999-2003) e de substituição de regimes ditatoriais (Haiti 1994, Afeganistão 2001-2003, Iraque 2003) na política internacional têm sido objeto de muitas controvérsias acadêmicas durante a última década. O presente artigo, à luz dos teóricos das relações internacionais e da ciência política, analisa a legitimidade dessas atitudes por meio do unilateralismo norte-americano.

Going Global: an organizational study of Brazilian foreign policy

This study analyzes the impact of globalisation on the organization and strategies outlined by the Brazilian Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The study intends to understand how countries from the periphery deal with new institutional challenges resulting from globalization, using the case of the Brazilian diplomatic service.

O Brasil na iniciativa BRIC: soft balancing numa ordem global em mudança?

As opções de política externa do Brasil são limitadas, tendo em conta os recursos materiais superiores das grandes potências establecidas. Soft balancing envolve estratégias institucionais, tais como a formação de coalizões ou ententes diplomáticas limitadas, como BRIC, para restringir o poder das grandes potências estabelecidas. Os países BRIC tinham constado dentre os precursores mais fortes de mudança da diplomacia mundial e por sua vez se beneficiam mais destas mudanças de poder global. Dentro da ordem global modelada pelas grandes potências por meio de instituições internacionais, aqueles jogadores que operam efetivamente dentro destas como inovadores, formadores de alianças e porta-vozes, e que ao mesmo tempo conservam soberania e independência têm o potencial de influir sustancialmente os resultados de políticas futuras.