Mayaro Virus Infection in Amazonia: A Multimodel Inference Approach to Risk Factor Assessment

Background: Arboviral diseases are major global public health threats. Yet, our understanding of infection risk factors is, with a few exceptions, considerably limited. A crucial shortcoming is the widespread use of analytical methods generally not suited for observational data - particularly null hypothesis-testing (NHT) and step-wise regression (SWR). Using Mayaro virus (MAYV) as a case study, here we compare information theory-based multimodel inference (MMI) with conventional analyses for arboviral infection risk factor assessment. Methodology/Principal Findings: A cross-sectional survey of anti-MAYV antibodies revealed 44% prevalence (n = 270 subjects) in a central Amazon rural settlement. NHT suggested that residents of village-like household clusters and those using closed toilet/latrines were at higher risk, while living in non-village-like areas, using bednets, and owning fowl, pigs or dogs were protective. The "minimum adequate" SWR model retained only residence area and bednet use. Using MMI, we identified relevant covariates, quantified their relative importance, and estimated effect-sizes (beta +/- SE) on which to base inference. Residence area (beta(Village) = 2.93 +/- 0.41; beta(Upland) = -0.56 +/- 0.33, beta(Riverbanks) = -2.37 +/- 0.55) and bednet use (beta = -0.95 +/- 0.28) were the most important factors, followed by crop-plot ownership (beta = 0.39 +/- 0.22) and regular use of a closed toilet/latrine (beta = 0.19 +/- 0.13); domestic animals had insignificant protective effects and were relatively unimportant. The SWR model ranked fifth among the 128 models in the final MMI set. Conclusions/Significance: Our analyses illustrate how MMI can enhance inference on infection risk factors when compared with NHT or SWR. MMI indicates that forest crop-plot workers are likely exposed to typical MAYV cycles maintained by diurnal, forest dwelling vectors; however, MAYV might also be circulating in nocturnal, domestic-peridomestic cycles in village-like areas. This suggests either a vector shift (synanthropic mosquitoes vectoring MAYV) or a habitat/habits shift (classical MAYV vectors adapting to densely populated landscapes and nocturnal biting); any such ecological/adaptive novelty could increase the likelihood of MAYV emergence in Amazonia.

Antiphospholipid syndrome plus rheumatic fever: a higher risk factor for stroke?

To compare clinical and laboratory findings between patients with primary antiphospholipid syndrome (PAPS) versus secondary APS due to rheumatic fever (APS-RF) (according to Jones criteria). Seventy-three APS patients (Sapporo criteria) were enrolled, and demographic, clinical, and laboratory data were collected. Exclusion criteria were heart congenital abnormalities and previous infectious endocarditis. Patients were divided into two groups: PAPS (n = 68) and APS-RF (n = 5). The mean current age, disease duration, frequencies of female gender, and Caucasian race were similar in APS-RF and PAPS patients (P > 0.05). Remarkably, the frequency of stroke was significantly higher in APS-RF compared to PAPS patients (80% vs. 25%, P = 0.02). Of note, echocardiogram of these patients did not show intracardiac thrombus. No significant differences were found in peripheral thromboembolic events (P = 1.0), pulmonary thromboembolism (P = 1.0), miscarriage (P = 0.16), thrombocytopenia (P = 0.36), arterial events (P = 0.58), and thrombosis of small vessels (P = 1.0). There were no differences in the frequencies of comorbidities such as diabetes mellitus, hypertension, smoking, and hyperlipidemia in both groups (P > 0.05). The frequencies of lupus anticoagulant, IgG, and IgM anticardiolipin were similar in two groups. APS patients associated with rheumatic fever without infective endocarditis may imply a high stroke risk as compared with PAPS, and future studies are needed to confirm this finding.

Risk Factor Analysis of Late Survival After Heart Transplantation According to Donor Profile: A Multi-Institutional Retrospective Study of 512 Transplants

Introduction. Patients with terminal heart failure have increased more than the available organs leading to a high mortality rate on the waiting list. Use of Marginal and expanded criteria donors has increased due to the heart shortage. Objective. We analyzed all heart transplantations (HTx) in Sao Paulo state over 8 years for donor profile and recipient risk factors. Method. This multi-institutional review collected HTx data from all institutions in the state of Sao Paulo, Brazil. From 2002 to 2008 (6 years), only 512 (28.8%) of 1777 available heart donors were accepted for transplantation. All medical records were analyzed retrospectively; none of the used donors was excluded, even those considered to be nonstandard. Results. The hospital mortality rate was 27.9% (n = 143) and the average follow-up time was 29.4 +/- 28.4 months. The survival rate was 55.5% (n = 285) at 6 years after HTx. Univariate analysis showed the following factors to impact survival: age (P = .0004), arterial hypertension (P = .4620), norepinephrine (P = .0450), cardiac arrest (P = .8500), diabetes mellitus (P = .5120), infection (P = .1470), CKMB (creatine kinase MB) (P = .8694), creatinine (P = .7225), and Na+ (P = .3273). On multivariate analysis, only age showed significance; logistic regression showed a significant cut-off at 40 years: organs from donors older than 40 years showed a lower late survival rates (P = .0032). Conclusions. Donor age older than 40 years represents an important risk factor for survival after HTx. Neither donor gender nor norepinephrine use negatively affected early survival.

Nursing Workload as a Risk Factor for Healthcare Associated Infections in ICU: A Prospective Study

Introduction: Nurse understaffing is frequently hypothesized as a potential risk factor for healthcare-associated infections (HAI). This study aimed to evaluate the role of nursing workload in the occurrence of HAI, using Nursing Activities Score (NAS). Methods: This prospective cohort study enrolled all patients admitted to 3 Medical ICUs and one step-down unit during 3 months (2009). Patients were followed-up until HAI, discharge or death. Information was obtained from direct daily observation of medical and nursing rounds, chart review and monitoring of laboratory system. Nursing workload was determined using NAS. Non-compliance to the nurses' patient care plans (NPC) was identified. Demographic data, clinical severity, invasive procedures, hospital interventions, and the occurrence of other adverse events were also recorded. Patients who developed HAI were compared with those who did not. Results: 195 patients were included and 43 (22%) developed HAI: 16 pneumonia, 12 urinary-tract, 8 bloodstream, 2 surgical site, 2 other respiratory infections and 3 other. Average NAS and average proportion of non compliance with NPC were significantly higher in HAI patients. They were also more likely to suffer other adverse events. Only excessive nursing workload (OR: 11.41; p: 0.019) and severity of patient's clinical condition (OR: 1.13; p: 0.015) remained as risk factors to HAI. Conclusions: Excessive nursing workload was the main risk factor for HAI, when evaluated together with other invasive devices except mechanical ventilation. To our knowledge, this study is the first to evaluate prospectively the nursing workload as a potential risk factor for HAI, using NAS.

Crowding: risk factor or protective factor for lower respiratory disease in young children?

Abstract Background To study the effects of household crowding upon the respiratory health of young children living in the city of São Paulo, Brazil. Methods Case-control study with children aged from 2 to 59 months living within the boundaries of the city of São Paulo. Cases were children recruited from 5 public hospitals in central São Paulo with an acute episode of lower respiratory disease. Children were classified into the following diagnostic categories: acute bronchitis, acute bronchiolitis, pneumonia, asthma, post-bronchiolitis wheezing and wheezing of uncertain aetiology. One control, crudely matched to each case with regard to age (<2, 2 years old or more), was selected among healthy children living in the neighborhood of the case. All buildings were surveyed for the presence of environmental contaminants, type of construction and building material. Plans of all homes, including measurements of floor area, height of walls, windows and solar orientation, was performed. Data were analysed using conditional logistic regression. Results A total of 313 pairs of children were studied. Over 70% of the cases had a primary or an associated diagnosis of a wheezing illness. Compared with controls, cases tended to live in smaller houses with less adequate sewage disposal. Cases and controls were similar with respect to the number of people and the number of children under five living in the household, as well the number of people sharing the child's bedroom. After controlling for potential confounders, no evidence of an association between number of persons sharing the child's bedroom and lower respiratory disease was identified when all cases were compared with their controls. However, when two categories of cases were distinguished (infections, asthma) and each category compared separately with their controls, crowding appeared to be associated with a 60% reduction in the incidence of asthma but with 2 1/2-fold increase in the incidence of lower respiratory tract infections (p = 0.001). Conclusion Our findings suggest that household crowding places young children at risk of acute lower respiratory infection but may protect against asthma. This result is consistent with the hygiene hypothesis.

Blood transfusion in cardiac surgery is a risk factor for increased hospital length of stay in adult patients

Abstract Background Allogeneic red blood cell (RBC) transfusion has been proposed as a negative indicator of quality in cardiac surgery. Hospital length of stay (LOS) may be a surrogate of poor outcome in transfused patients. Methods Data from 502 patients included in Transfusion Requirements After Cardiac Surgery (TRACS) study were analyzed to assess the relationship between RBC transfusion and hospital LOS in patients undergoing cardiac surgery and enrolled in the TRACS study. Results According to the status of RBC transfusion, patients were categorized into the following three groups: 1) 199 patients (40%) who did not receive RBC, 2) 241 patients (48%) who received 3 RBC units or fewer (low transfusion requirement group), and 3) 62 patients (12%) who received more than 3 RBC units (high transfusion requirement group). In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards model, the following factors were predictive of a prolonged hospital length of stay: age higher than 65 years, EuroSCORE, valvular surgery, combined procedure, LVEF lower than 40% and RBC transfusion of > 3 units. Conclusion RBC transfusion is an independent risk factor for increased LOS in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. This finding highlights the adequacy of a restrictive transfusion therapy in patients undergoing cardiac surgery. Trial registration Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: http://NCT01021631.

Interaction between APOE4 genotype and environmental risk factors in Alzheimer's disease

Alzheimer's disease (AD) is probably caused by both genetic and environmental risk factors. The major genetic risk factor is the E4 variant of apolipoprotein E gene called apoE4. Several risk factors for developing AD have been identified including lifestyle, such as dietary habits. The mechanisms behind the AD pathogenesis and the onset of cognitive decline in the AD brain are presently unknown. In this study we wanted to characterize the effects of the interaction between environmental risk factors and apoE genotype on neurodegeneration processes, with particular focus on behavioural studies and neurodegenerative processes at molecular level. Towards this aim, we used 6 months-old apoE4 and apoE3 Target Replacement (TR) mice fed on different diets (high intake of cholesterol and high intake of carbohydrates). These mice were evaluated for learning and memory deficits in spatial reference (Morris Water Maze (MWM)) and contextual learning (Passive Avoidance) tasks, which involve the hippocampus and the amygdala, respectively. From these behavioural studies we found that the initial cognitive impairments manifested as a retention deficit in apoE4 mice fed on high carbohydrate diet. Thus, the genetic risk factor apoE4 genotype associated with a high carbohydrate diet seems to affect cognitive functions in young mice, corroborating the theory that the combination of genetic and environmental risk factors greatly increases the risk of developing AD and leads to an earlier onset of cognitive deficits. The cellular and molecular bases of the cognitive decline in AD are largely unknown. In order to determine the molecular changes for the onset of the early cognitive impairment observed in the behavioural studies, we performed molecular studies, with particular focus on synaptic integrity and Tau phosphorylation. The most relevant finding of our molecular studies showed a significant decrease of Brain-derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) in apoE4 mice fed on high carbohydrate diet. Our results may suggest that BDNF decrease found in apoE4 HS mice could be involved in the earliest impairment in long-term reference memory observed in behavioural studies. The second aim of this thesis was to study possible involvement of leptin in AD. There is growing evidence that leptin has neuroprotective properties in the Central Nervous System (CNS). Recent evidence has shown that leptin and its receptors are widespread in the CNS and may provide neuronal survival signals. However, there are still numerous questions, regarding the molecular mechanism by which leptin acts, that remain unanswered. Thus, given to the importance of the involvement of leptin in AD, we wanted to clarify the function of leptin in the pathogenesis of AD and to investigate if apoE genotype affect leptin levels through studies in vitro, in mice and in human. Our findings suggest that apoE4 TR mice showed an increase of leptin in the brain. Leptin levels are also increased in the cerebral spinal fluid of AD patients and apoE4 carriers with AD have higher levels of leptin than apoE3 carriers. Moreover, leptin seems to be expressed by reactive glial cells in AD brains. In vitro, ApoE4 together with Amyloid beta increases leptin production by microglia and astrocytes. Taken together, all these findings suggest that leptin replacement might not be a good strategy for AD therapy. Our results show that high leptin levels were found in AD brains. These findings suggest that, as high leptin levels do not promote satiety in obese individuals, it might be possible that they do not promote neuroprotection in AD patients. Therefore, we hypothesized that AD brain could suffer from leptin resistance. Further studies will be critical to determine whether or not the central leptin resistance in SNC could affect its potential neuroprotective effects.

Risk factors for postoperative delirium in the elderly

Background: Delirium is defined as an acute disorder of attention and cognition. Delirium is common in hospitalized elderly patient and is associated with increased morbidity, length of stay and patient care costs. Although Delirium can develop at any time during hospitalization, it typically presents early in the post-operative period (Post-Operative Delirium, POD) in the surgery context. The molecular mechanism and possible genetics basis of POD onset are not known, as well as all the risk factors are not completely defined. Our hypothesis is that genetic risk factor involving the inflammatory response could have possible effects on the immunoneuroendocrine system. Moreover, our previous data (inflamm-aging) suggest that aging is associated with an increase of inflammatory status, favouring age-related diseases such as neurodegenerative diseases, frailty, depression among other. Some pro-inflammatory or anti-inflammatory cytokines, seem to play a crucial role in increasing the inflammatory status and in the communication and regulation of immunoneuroendocrine system. Objective: this study evaluated the incidence of POD in elderly patients undergoing general surgery, clinical/physical and psychological risk factors of POD insurgency and investigated inflammatory and genetic risk factors. Moreover, this study evaluated the consequence of POD in terms of institutionalization, development of permanent cognitive dysfunction or dementia and mortality Methods: patients aged over 65 admitted for surgery at the Urgency Unit of S.Orsola-Malpighi Hospital were eligible for this case–control study. Risk factors significantly associated with POD in univariate analysis were entered into multivariate analysis to establish those independently associated with POD. Preoperative plasma level of 9 inflammatory markers were measured in 42 control subjects and 43 subjects who developed POD. Functional polymorphisms of IL-1 α , IL-2, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10 and TNF-alpha cytokine genes were determined in 176 control subjects and 27 POD subjects. Results: A total of 351 patients were enrolled in the study. The incidence of POD was 13•2 %. Independent variables associated with POD were: age, co-morbidity, preoperative cognitive impairment, glucose abnormalities. Median length of hospital stay was 21 days for patients with POD versus 8 days for control patients (P < 0•001). The hospital mortality rate was 19 and 8•4 % respectively (P = 0•021) and mortality rate after 1 year was also higher in POD (P= 0.0001). The baseline of IL-6 concentration was higher in POD patients than patients without POD, whereas IL-2 was lower in POD patients compared to patients without POD. In a multivariate analysis only IL-6 remained associated with POD. Moreover IL-6, IL-8 and IL-2 are associated with co-morbidity, intra-hospital mortality, compromised functional status and emergency admission. No significant differences in genotype distribution were found between POD subjects and controls for any SNP analyzed in this study. Conclusion: In this study we found older age, comorbidity, cognitive impairment, glucose abnormalities and baseline of IL-6 as independent risk factors for the development of POD. IL-6 could be proposed as marker of a trait that is associated with an increased risk of delirium; i.e. raised premorbid IL-6 level predict for the development of delirium.

Petrous bone pneumatization is a risk factor for cerebrospinal fluid fistula following vestibular schwannoma surgery

For the prevention of postoperative CSF fistula a better understanding of origins and risk factors is necessary.

Gender is an independent risk factor for distribution pattern and lesion morphology in chronic critical limb ischemia

The aim of this study was to determine gender differences in atherosclerotic lesion morphology and distribution pattern of patients with critical limb ischemia (CLI).

Extracapsular extension but not the tumour burden of lymph node metastases is an independent adverse risk factor in lymph node-positive bladder cancer

To evaluate risk factors in lymph node-positive bladder cancer.

Climate change: an additional risk factor for agriculture and food security in the South

Climate change is expected to have far-reaching negative effects on agricultural production and food security in developing and transition countries. What do we know about these expected impacts, what are the factors that might affect production, and what are the implications for agricultural extension systems?

NOD2 gene variants are a risk factor for culture-positive spontaneous bacterial peritonitis and monomicrobial bacterascites in cirrhosis

Spontaneous bacterial peritonitis (SBP) is considered as result of bacterial translocation from the gastrointestinal lumen to the mesenteric lymph nodes and subsequent circulation. Variants of the NOD2 gene contribute to bacterial translocation and were associated with SBP in a recent study.

Smoking as a significant risk factor for infections after orthognathic surgery

This study was conducted to determine risk factors for infections after orthognathic surgery.