Active Learning of Very-High Resolution Optical Imagery with SVM: Entropy vs Margin Sampling

An active learning method is proposed for the semi-automatic selection of training sets in remote sensing image classification. The method adds iteratively to the current training set the unlabeled pixels for which the prediction of an ensemble of classifiers based on bagged training sets show maximum entropy. This way, the algorithm selects the pixels that are the most uncertain and that will improve the model if added in the training set. The user is asked to label such pixels at each iteration. Experiments using support vector machines (SVM) on an 8 classes QuickBird image show the excellent performances of the methods, that equals accuracies of both a model trained with ten times more pixels and a model whose training set has been built using a state-of-the-art SVM specific active learning method

Fourth order pseudo maximum likelihood methods

We extend PML theory to account for information on the conditional moments up to order four, but without assuming a parametric model, to avoid a risk of misspecification of the conditional distribution. The key statistical tool is the quartic exponential family, which allows us to generalize the PML2 and QGPML1 methods proposed in Gourieroux et al. (1984) to PML4 and QGPML2 methods, respectively. An asymptotic theory is developed. The key numerical tool that we use is the Gauss-Freud integration scheme that solves a computational problem that has previously been raised in several fields. Simulation exercises demonstrate the feasibility and robustness of the methods [Authors]

A deterministic model to assess the impact of AIDS interventions in countries with generalized HIV epidemic. An application to Botswana

General introductionThe Human Immunodeficiency/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) epidemic, despite recent encouraging announcements by the World Health Organization (WHO) is still today one of the world's major health care challenges.The present work lies in the field of health care management, in particular, we aim to evaluate the behavioural and non-behavioural interventions against HIV/AIDS in developing countries through a deterministic simulation model, both in human and economic terms. We will focus on assessing the effectiveness of the antiretroviral therapies (ART) in heterosexual populations living in lesser developed countries where the epidemic has generalized (formerly defined by the WHO as type II countries). The model is calibrated using Botswana as a case study, however our model can be adapted to other countries with similar transmission dynamics.The first part of this thesis consists of reviewing the main mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general but with a focus on human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) transmission. We also review deterministic models assessing HIV interventions with a focus on models aimed at African countries. This review helps us to recognize the need for a generic model and allows us to define a typical structure of such a generic deterministic model.The second part describes the main feed-back loops underlying the dynamics of HIV transmission. These loops represent the foundation of our model. This part also provides a detailed description of the model, including the various infected and non-infected population groups, the type of sexual relationships, the infection matrices, important factors impacting HIV transmission such as condom use, other sexually transmitted diseases (STD) and male circumcision. We also included in the model a dynamic life expectancy calculator which, to our knowledge, is a unique feature allowing more realistic cost-efficiency calculations. Various intervention scenarios are evaluated using the model, each of them including ART in combination with other interventions, namely: circumcision, campaigns aimed at behavioral change (Abstain, Be faithful or use Condoms also named ABC campaigns), and treatment of other STD. A cost efficiency analysis (CEA) is performed for each scenario. The CEA consists of measuring the cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted. This part also describes the model calibration and validation, including a sensitivity analysis.The third part reports the results and discusses the model limitations. In particular, we argue that the combination of ART and ABC campaigns and ART and treatment of other STDs are the most cost-efficient interventions through 2020. The main model limitations include modeling the complexity of sexual relationships, omission of international migration and ignoring variability in infectiousness according to the AIDS stage.The fourth part reviews the major contributions of the thesis and discusses model generalizability and flexibility. Finally, we conclude that by selecting the adequate interventions mix, policy makers can significantly reduce the adult prevalence in Botswana in the coming twenty years providing the country and its donors can bear the cost involved.Part I: Context and literature reviewIn this section, after a brief introduction to the general literature we focus in section two on the key mathematical concepts describing the transmission of infectious agents in general with a focus on HIV transmission. Section three provides a description of HIV policy models, with a focus on deterministic models. This leads us in section four to envision the need for a generic deterministic HIV policy model and briefly describe the structure of such a generic model applicable to countries with generalized HIV/AIDS epidemic, also defined as pattern II countries by the WHO.

When should clinicians search for GLUT1 deficiency syndrome in childhood generalized epilepsies?

UNLABELLED: GLUT1 deficiency (GLUT1D) has recently been identified as an important cause of generalized epilepsies in childhood. As it is a treatable condition, it is crucial to determine which patients should be investigated. METHODS: We analyzed SLC2A1 for mutations in a group of 93 unrelated children with generalized epilepsies. Fasting lumbar puncture was performed following the identification of a mutation. We compared our results with a systematic review of 7 publications of series of patients with generalized epilepsies screened for SLC2A1 mutations. RESULTS: We found 2/93 (2.1%) patients with a SLC2A1 mutation. One, carrying a novel de novo deletion had epilepsy with myoclonic-atonic seizures (MAE), mild slowing of head growth, choreiform movements and developmental delay. The other, with a paternally inherited missense mutation, had childhood absence epilepsy with atypical EEG features and paroxysmal exercise-induced dyskinesia (PED) initially misdiagnosed as myoclonic seizures. Out of a total of 1110 screened patients with generalized epilepsies from 7 studies, 2.4% (29/1110) had GLUT1D. This rate was higher (5.6%) among 303 patients with early onset absence epilepsy (EOAE) from 4 studies. About 50% of GLUT1D patients had abnormal movements and 41% a family history of seizures, abnormal movements or both. CONCLUSION: GLUT1D is most likely to be found in MAE and in EOAE. The probability of finding GLUT1D in the classical idiopathic generalized epilepsies is very low. Pointers to GLUT1D include an increase in seizures before meals, cognitive impairment, or PED which can easily be overlooked.

Portafolio selection with skewness: a comparison of methods and a generalized two fund separation result

This contribution compares existing and newly developed techniques for geometrically representing mean-variances-kewness portfolio frontiers based on the rather widely adapted methodology of polynomial goal programming (PGP) on the one hand and the more recent approach based on the shortage function on the other hand. Moreover, we explain the working of these different methodologies in detail and provide graphical illustrations. Inspired by these illustrations, we prove a generalization of the well-known two fund separation theorem from traditionalmean-variance portfolio theory.

Generalized food-deceptive orchid species flower earlier and occur at lower altitudes than rewarding ones

Aims Food-deceptive pollination, in which plants do not offer any food reward to their pollinators, is common within the Orchidaceae. As food-deceptive orchids are poorer competitors for pollinator visitation than rewarding orchids, their occurrence in a given habitat may be more constrained than that of rewarding orchids. In particular, the success of deceptive orchids strongly relies on several biotic factors such as interactions with co-flowering rewarding species and pollinators, which may vary with altitude and over time. Our study compares generalized food-deceptive (i.e. excluding sexually deceptive) and rewarding orchids to test whether (i) deceptive orchids flower earlier compared to their rewarding counterparts and whether (ii) the relative occurrence of deceptive orchids decreases with increasing altitude. Methods To compare the flowering phenology of rewarding and deceptive orchids, we analysed data compiled from the literature at the species level over the occidental Palaearctic area. Since flowering phenology can be constrained by the latitudinal distribution of the species and by their phylogenetic relationships, we accounted for these factors in our analysis. To compare the altitudinal distribution of rewarding and deceptive orchids, we used field observations made over the entire Swiss territory and over two Swiss mountain ranges. Important Findings We found that deceptive orchid species start flowering earlier than rewarding orchids do, which is in accordance with the hypotheses of exploitation of naive pollinators and/or avoidance of competition with rewarding co-occurring species. Also, the relative frequency of deceptive orchids decreases with altitude, suggesting that deception may be less profitable at high compared to low altitude.

Extremal principle of entropy production in the climate system

Paltridge found reasonable values for the most significant climatic variables through maximizing the material transport part of entropy production by using a simple box model. Here, we analyse Paltridge's box model to obtain the energy and the entropy balance equations separately. Derived expressions for global entropy production, which is a function of the radiation field, and even its material transport component, are shown to be different from those used by Paltridge. Plausible climatic states are found at extrema of these parameters. Feasible results are also obtained by minimizing the radiation part of entropy production, in agreement with one of Planck's results, Finally, globally averaged values of the entropy flux of radiation and material entropy production are obtained for two dynamical extreme cases: an earth with uniform temperature, and an earth in radiative equilibrium at each latitudinal point

A generalized mechanistic codon model.

Models of codon evolution have attracted particular interest because of their unique capabilities to detect selection forces and their high fit when applied to sequence evolution. We described here a novel approach for modeling codon evolution, which is based on Kronecker product of matrices. The 61 × 61 codon substitution rate matrix is created using Kronecker product of three 4 × 4 nucleotide substitution matrices, the equilibrium frequency of codons, and the selection rate parameter. The entities of the nucleotide substitution matrices and selection rate are considered as parameters of the model, which are optimized by maximum likelihood. Our fully mechanistic model allows the instantaneous substitution matrix between codons to be fully estimated with only 19 parameters instead of 3,721, by using the biological interdependence existing between positions within codons. We illustrate the properties of our models using computer simulations and assessed its relevance by comparing the AICc measures of our model and other models of codon evolution on simulations and a large range of empirical data sets. We show that our model fits most biological data better compared with the current codon models. Furthermore, the parameters in our model can be interpreted in a similar way as the exchangeability rates found in empirical codon models.

Greenhouse gases and climatic states of minimum entropy production

The hypothesis of minimum entropy production is applied to a simple one-dimensional energy balance model and is analysed for different values of the radiative forcing due to greenhouse gases. The extremum principle is used to determine the planetary “conductivity” and to avoid the “diffusive” approximation, which is commonly assumed in this type of model. For present conditions the result at minimum radiative entropy production is similar to that obtained by applying the classical model. Other climatic scenarios show visible differences, with better behaviour for the extremal case

Generalized low-density codes with BCH constituents for full-diversity near-outage performance

A new graph-based construction of generalized low density codes (GLD-Tanner) with binary BCH constituents is described. The proposed family of GLD codes is optimal on block erasure channels and quasi-optimal on block fading channels. Optimality is considered in the outage probability sense. Aclassical GLD code for ergodic channels (e.g., the AWGN channel,the i.i.d. Rayleigh fading channel, and the i.i.d. binary erasure channel) is built by connecting bitnodes and subcode nodes via a unique random edge permutation. In the proposed construction of full-diversity GLD codes (referred to as root GLD), bitnodes are divided into 4 classes, subcodes are divided into 2 classes, and finally both sides of the Tanner graph are linked via 4 random edge permutations. The study focuses on non-ergodic channels with two states and can be easily extended to channels with 3 states or more.

Generalized linear and generalized additive models in studies of species distributions: setting the scene

An important statistical development of the last 30 years has been the advance in regression analysis provided by generalized linear models (GLMs) and generalized additive models (GAMs). Here we introduce a series of papers prepared within the framework of an international workshop entitled: Advances in GLMs/GAMs modeling: from species distribution to environmental management, held in Riederalp, Switzerland, 6-11 August 2001.We first discuss some general uses of statistical models in ecology, as well as provide a short review of several key examples of the use of GLMs and GAMs in ecological modeling efforts. We next present an overview of GLMs and GAMs, and discuss some of their related statistics used for predictor selection, model diagnostics, and evaluation. Included is a discussion of several new approaches applicable to GLMs and GAMs, such as ridge regression, an alternative to stepwise selection of predictors, and methods for the identification of interactions by a combined use of regression trees and several other approaches. We close with an overview of the papers and how we feel they advance our understanding of their application to ecological modeling.