Relocation of Intensive Agriculture to Northern Australia: The Case of the Rice Industry

Development of new agricultural industries in northern Australia is seen as a way to provide food security in the face of reduced water availability in existing regions in the south. This report aims to identify some of the possible economic consequences of developing a rice industry in the Burdekin region, while there is a reduction of output in the Riverina. Annual rice production in the Riverina peaked at 1.7 M tonnes, but the long-term outlook, given climate change impacts on that region and government water buy-backs, is more likely to be less than 800,000 tonnes. Growers are highly efficient water users by international standards, but the ability to offset an anticipated reduction in water availability through further efficiency gains is limited. In recent years growers in the Riverina have diversified their farms to a greater extent and secondary production systems include beef, sheep and wheat. Production in north Queensland is in its infancy, but a potentially suitable farming system has been developed by including rice within the sugarcane system without competition and in fact contributing to the production of sugar by increasing yields and controlling weeds. The economic outcomes are estimated a large scale, dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the world economy (Tasman Global), scaled down to regional level. CGE models mimic the workings of the economy through a system of interdependent behavioural and accounting equations which are linked to an input-output database. When an economic shock or change is applied to a model, each of the markets adjusts according to the set of behavioural parameters which are underpinned by economic theory. In this study the model is driven by reducing production in the Riverina in accordance with relationships found between water availability and the production of rice and replacement by other crops and by increasing ride production in the Burdekin. Three scenarios were considered: • Scenario 1: Rice is grown using the fallow period between the last ratoon crop of sugarcane and the new planting. In this scenario there is no competition between rice and sugarcane • Scenario 2: Rice displaces sugarcane production • Scenario 3: Rice is grown on additional land and does not compete with sugarcane. Two time periods were used, 2030 and 2070, which are the conventional time points to consider climate change impacts. Under scenario 1, real economic output declines in the Riverina by $45 million in 2030 and by $139 million in 2070. This is only partially offset by the increased real economic output in the Burdekin of $35 million and $131 million respectively.

Reconfiguring agriculture through the relocation of production systems for water, environment and food security under climate change

The prospect of climate change has revived both fears of food insecurity and its corollary, market opportunities for agricultural production. In Australia, with its long history of state-sponsored agricultural development, there is renewed interest in the agricultural development of tropical and sub-tropical northern regions. Climate projections suggest that there will be less water available to the main irrigation systems of the eastern central and southern regions of Australia, while net rainfall could be sustained or even increase in the northern areas. Hence, there could be more intensive use of northern agricultural areas, with the relocation of some production of economically important commodities such as vegetables, rice and cotton. The problem is that the expansion of cropping in northern Australia has been constrained by agronomic and economic considerations. The present paper examines the economics, at both farm and regional level, of relocating some cotton production from the east-central irrigation areas to the north where there is an existing irrigation scheme together with some industry and individual interest in such relocation. Integrated modelling and expert knowledge are used to examine this example of prospective climate change adaptation. Farm-level simulations show that without adaptation, overall gross margins will decrease under a combination of climate change and reduction in water availability. A dynamic regional Computable General Equilibrium model is used to explore two scenarios of relocating cotton production from south east Queensland, to sugar-dominated areas in northern Queensland. Overall, an increase in real economic output and real income was realized when some cotton production was relocated to sugar cane fallow land/new land. There were, however, large negative effects on regional economies where cotton production displaced sugar cane. It is concluded that even excluding the agronomic uncertainties, which are not examined here, there is unlikely to be significant market-driven relocation of cotton production.

Altruism, Trade Policy, and the Optimality of Foreign Aid

There are many studies in the literature that deal with the welfare effects of income transfers between nations in a general equilibrium setting. An important impetus for this extensive literature was the demonstration of the transfer paradox; that the donor country could actually gain from a transfer of income to another, and that the recipient could lose as a result of the gift. The reason for this paradoxical result is that the transfer gives rise to a terms-of-trade effect that may be especially beneficial to the donor and detrimental to the recipient. Subsequently, many papers have established conditions under which this paradox will or will not occur. Early work by Samuelson (1954) was followed by demonstrations of paradoxes by Gale (1974), Ohyama (1974), Brecher and Bhagwati (1982) and Bhagwati, Brecher and Hatta 1983, 1985, and Dixit (1983)) among others.1 More recently, many studies have examined whether or not foreign aid — tied and untied — can be welfare improving for both the donor and the recipient (see, for example, Turunen-Red and Woodland (1988), Kemp and Wong (1993), Schweinberger (1990), Hatzipanayotou and Michael (1995), Lahiri and Raimondos-Moller 1995, 1997, Djajić, Lahiri and Raimondos-Møller 1996a, 1996b, and Lahiri, Raimondos-Møller, Wong and Woodland 1997.2

Reducing tariffs according to WTO accession rules: The case of Vietnam

When Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 2007 it was granted an accession period up to 2014. During this period tariffs would have to fall according to the accession agreement. This paper evaluates this 2007–2014 trade liberalization by building an applied general equilibrium model and calibrating it to the Vietnamese data. The model pays careful attention to the fact that Vietnam has many state-owned enterprises. The model simulations show that the WTO tariff reductions will reduce overall welfare. Moreover, the biggest loss will take place among the poor rural households in Vietnam. This paper proposes other tariff reforms that will both raise overall welfare and reduce income inequality.

Predicting price-tag for customized goods

We discuss a dynamic pricing model which will aid automobile manufacturer in choosing the right price for customer segment. Though there is oligopoly market structure, the customers get "locked" into a particular technology/company which virtually makes the situation akin to a monopoly. There are associated network externalities and positive feedback. The key idea in monopoly pricing lies in extracting the customer surplus by exploiting the respective elasticities of demand. We present a Walrasian general equilibrium approach to determine the segment price. We compare the prices obtained from optimization model with that from Walrasian dynamics. The results are encouraging and can serve as a critical factor in Customer Relationship Management (CRM) and thereby effectively manage the lock-in.

Curved composite beams—optimum lay-up for buckling by ranking

Instability of laminated curved composite beams made of repeated sublaminate construction is studied using finite element method. In repeated sublaminate construction, a full laminate is obtained by repeating a basic sublaminate which has a smaller number of plies. This paper deals with the determination of optimum lay-up for buckling by ranking of such composite curved beams (which may be solid or sandwich). For this purpose, use is made of a two-noded, 16 degress of freedom curved composite beam finite element. The displacements u, v, w of the element reference axis are expressed in terms of one-dimensional first-order Hermite interpolation polynomials, and line member assumptions are invoked in formulation of the elastic stiffness matrix and geometric stiffness matrix. The nonlinear expressions for the strains, occurring in beams subjected to axial, flexural and torsional loads, are incorporated in a general instability analysis. The computer program developed has been used, after extensive checking for correctness, to obtain optimum orientation scheme of the plies in the sublaminate so as to achieve maximum buckling load for typical curved solid/sandwich composite beams.

Amplitude death in complex networks induced by environment

We present a mechanism for amplitude death in coupled nonlinear dynamical systems on a complex network having interactions with a common environment like external system. We develop a general stability analysis that is valid for any network topology and obtain the threshold values of coupling constants for the onset of amplitude death. An important outcome of our study is a universal relation between the critical coupling strength and the largest nonzero eigenvalue of the coupling matrix. Our results are fully supported by the detailed numerical analysis for different network topologies.

Auditory-motivated Gammatone wavelet transform

The ability of the continuous wavelet transform (CWT) to provide good time and frequency localization has made it a popular tool in time-frequency analysis of signals. Wavelets exhibit constant-Q property, which is also possessed by the basilar membrane filters in the peripheral auditory system. The basilar membrane filters or auditory filters are often modeled by a Gammatone function, which provides a good approximation to experimentally determined responses. The filterbank derived from these filters is referred to as a Gammatone filterbank. In general, wavelet analysis can be likened to a filterbank analysis and hence the interesting link between standard wavelet analysis and Gammatone filterbank. However, the Gammatone function does not exactly qualify as a wavelet because its time average is not zero. We show how bona fide wavelets can be constructed out of Gammatone functions. We analyze properties such as admissibility, time-bandwidth product, vanishing moments, which are particularly relevant in the context of wavelets. We also show how the proposed auditory wavelets are produced as the impulse response of a linear, shift-invariant system governed by a linear differential equation with constant coefficients. We propose analog circuit implementations of the proposed CWT. We also show how the Gammatone-derived wavelets can be used for singularity detection and time-frequency analysis of transient signals. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Oxy-steam gasification of biomass for hydrogen rich syngas production using downdraft reactor configuration

The paper focuses on the use of oxygen and steam as the gasification agents in the thermochemical conversion of biomass to produce hydrogen rich syngas, using a downdraft reactor configuration. Performance of the reactor is evaluated for different equivalence ratios (ER), steam to biomass ratios (SBR) and moisture content in the fuel. The results are compared and evaluated with chemical equilibrium analysis and reaction kinetics along with the results available in the literature. Parametric study suggests that, with increase in SBR, hydrogen fraction in the syngas increases but necessitates an increase in the ER to maintain reactor temperature toward stable operating conditions. SBR is varied from 0.75 to 2.7 and ER from 0.18 to 0.3. The peak hydrogen yield is found to be 104g/kg of biomass at SBR of 2.7. Further, significant enhancement in H-2 yield and H-2 to CO ratio is observed at higher SBR (SBR=1.5-2.7) compared with lower range SBR (SBR=0.75-1.5). Experiments were conducted using wet wood chips to induce moisture into the reacting system and compare the performance with dry wood with steam. The results clearly indicate the both hydrogen generation and the gasification efficiency ((g)) are better in the latter case. With the increase in SBR, gasification efficiency ((g)) and lower heating value (LHV) tend to reduce. Gasification efficiency of 85.8% is reported with LHV of 8.9MJNm(-3) at SBR of 0.75 compared with 69.5% efficiency at SBR of 2.5 and lower LHV of 7.4 at MJNm(-3) at SBR of 2.7. These are argued on the basis of the energy required for steam generation and the extent of steam consumption during the reaction, which translates subsequently in the LHV of syngas. From the analysis of the results, it is evident that reaction kinetics plays a crucial role in the conversion process. The study also presents the importance of reaction kinetics, which controls the overall performance related to efficiency, H-2 yield, H-2 to CO fraction and LHV of syngas, and their dependence on the process parameters SBR and ER. Copyright (c) 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Numerical Simulation of Nox Formation in Coal Combustion with Inlet Natural Gas Burning

A full two-fluid model of reacting gas-particle flows and coal combustion is used to simulate coal combustion with and without inlet natural gas added in the inlet. The simulation results for the case without natural gas burning is in fair agreement with the experimental results reported in references. The simulation results of different natural gas adding positions indicate that the natural gas burning can form lean oxygen combustion enviroment at the combustor inlet region and the NOz concentration is reduced. The same result can be obtained from chemical equilibrium analysis.

Assessment of Microscale Test Methods of Peeling and Splitting along Surface of Thin-Film/Substrates

Peel test methods are assessed through being applied to a peeling analysis of the ductile film/ceramic substrate system. Through computing the fracture work of the system using the either beam bend model (BB model) or the general plane analysis model (GPA model), surprisingly, a big difference between both model results is found. Although the BB model can capture the plastic dissipation phenomenon for the ductile film case as the GPA model can, it is much sensitive to the choice of the peeling criterion parameters, and it overestimates the plastic bending effect unable to capture crack tip constraint plasticity. In view of the difficulty of measuring interfacial toughness using peel test method when film is the ductile material, a new test method, split test, is recommended and analyzed using the GPA model. The prediction is applied to a wedge-loaded experiment for Al-alloy double-cantilever beam in literature.

Numerical Analyses of Transonic Fluid/Structure interaction in Aircraft Engineering

Through the coupling between aerodynamic and structural governing equations, a fully implicit multiblock aeroelastic solver was developed for transonic fluid/stricture interaction. The Navier-Stokes fluid equations are solved based on LU-SGS (lower-upper symmetric Gauss-Seidel) Time-marching subiteration scheme and HLLEW (Harten-Lax-van Leer-Einfeldt-Wada) spacing discretization scheme and the same subiteration formulation is applied directly to the structural equations of motion in generalized coordinates. Transfinite interpolation (TFI) is used for the grid deformation of blocks neighboring the flexible surfaces. The infinite plate spline (IPS) and the principal of virtual work are utilized for the data transformation between fluid and structure. The developed code was fort validated through the comparison of experimental and computational results for the AGARD 445.6 standard aeroelastic wing. In the subsonic and transonic range, the calculated flutter speeds and frequencies agree well with experimental data, however, in the supersonic range, the present calculation overpredicts the experimental flutter points similar to other computations. Then the flutter character of a complete aircraft configuration is analyzed through the calculation of the change of structural stiffness. Finally, the phenomenon of aileron buzz is simulated for the weakened model of a supersonic transport wing/body model at Mach numbers of 0.98 and l.05. The calculated unsteady flow shows, on the upper surface, the shock wave becomes stronger as the aileron deflects downward, and the flow behaves just contrary on the lower surface of the wing. Corresponding to general theoretical analysis, the flow instability referred to as aileron buzz is induced by a stronger shock alternately moving on the upper and lower surfaces of wing. For the rigid structural model, the flow is stable at all calculated Mach numbers as observed in experiment

Cost effectiveness of a combination of instruments for global warming: a quantitative approach for Spain

Climate change is an important environmental problem and one whose economic implications are many and varied. This paper starts with the presumption that mitigation of greenhouse gases is a necessary policy that has to be designed in a cost effective way. It is well known that market instruments are the best option for cost effectiveness. But the discussion regarding which of the various market instruments should be used, how they may interact and what combinations of policies should be implemented is still open and very lively. In this paper we propose a combination of instruments: the marketable emission permits already in place in Europe for major economic sectors and a CO(2) tax for economic sectors not included in the emissions permit scheme. The study uses an applied general equilibrium model for the Spanish economy to compute the results obtained with the new mix of instruments proposed. As the combination of the market for emission permits and the CO(2) tax admits different possibilities that depend on how the mitigation is distributed among the economic sectors, we concentrate on four possibilities: cost-effective, equalitarian, proportional to emissions, and proportional to output distributions. Other alternatives to the CO(2) tax are also analysed (tax on energy, on oil and on electricity). Our findings suggest that careful, well designed policies are needed as any deviation imposes significant additional costs that increase more than proportionally to the level of emissions reduction targeted by the EU.

Estímulos fiscais e a interação entre as políticas monetária e fiscal no Brasil

Este trabalho estima, utilizando dados trimestrais de 1999 a 2011, o impacto dinâmico de um estímulo fiscal no Brasil sobre as principais variáveis macroeconômicas Brasileiras. Na estimativa dos impactos permitiu-se que as expectativas dos agentes econômicas fossem afetadas pela existência e probabilidade de alternância de regimes (foram detectados dois regimes) na política monetária do país. Os parâmetros da regra da política monetária, nos dois regimes detectados, foram estimados através de um modelo - composto apenas pela equação da regra da política monetária - que permite uma mudança de regime Markoviana. Os parâmetros do único regime encontrado para a política fiscal foram estimados por um modelo Vetorial de Correção de Erros (Vector Error Correction Model - VEC), composto apenas pelas variáveis pertencentes à regra da política fiscal. Os parâmetros estimados, para os diversos regimes das políticas monetária e fiscal, foram utilizados como auxiliares na calibragem de um modelo de equilíbrio geral estocástico dinâmico (MEGED), com mudanças de regime, com rigidez nominal de preços e concorrência monopolística (como em Davig e Leeper (2011)). Após a calibragem do MEGED os impactos dinâmicos de um estímulo fiscal foram obtidos através de uma rotina numérica (desenvolvida por Davig e Leeper (2006)) que permite obter o equilíbrio dinâmico do modelo resolvendo um sistema de equações de diferenças de primeira ordem expectacionais dinâmicas não lineares. Obtivemos que a política fiscal foi passiva durante todo o período analisado e que a política monetária foi sempre ativa, porém sendo em determinados momentos menos ativa. Em geral, em ambas as combinações de regimes, um choque não antecipado dos gastos do governo leva ao aumento do hiato do produto, aumento dos juros reais, redução do consumo privado e (em contradição com o resultado convencional) redução da taxa de inflação.

Impacto de melhorias em infraestrutura de transportes sobre variáveis econômicas no Brasil: uma abordagem com o modelo GTAP

Neste Trabalho, modelamos a redução de custos de transportes decorrentes de hipotéticas melhorias na qualidade da infraestrutura de transportes terrestres da economia brasileira. A liberação de recursos gerada por essas melhorias foram traduzidas, em nosso modelo, como ganhos de produtividade para dez setores selecionados. A escolha dessa modelagem possui a vantagem de deixar que os agentes econômicos decidam o que fazer após o choque na produtividade total dos fatores, sem que estes recursos estejam comprometidos com quaisquer incentivos de natureza específica, como seria o caso de um subsídio à compra de determinada matéria-prima, por exemplo. O comportamento do setor, em consequência da realização do experimento, fica condicionado às hipóteses iniciais do modelo referentes aos parâmetros de decisão da firma, das famílias e do governo. Para os cálculos dos impactos sobre a produtividade, utilizamos as matrizes de insumoproduto estimadas por Martinez(2013). Os resultados mostraram ganhos expressivos para o produto interno bruto, a Balança Comercial e o volume de produção setorial, dentre outras variáveis analisadas.