Ice-sheet contributions to future sea-level change

Accurate simulation of ice-sheet surface mass balance requires higher spatial resolution than is afforded by typical atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs), owing, in particular, to the need to resolve the narrow and steep margins where the majority of precipitation and ablation occurs. We have developed a method for calculating mass-balance changes by combining ice-sheet average time-series from AOGCM projections for future centuries, both with information from high-resolution climate models run for short periods and with a 20 km ice-sheet mass-balance model. Antarctica contributes negatively to sea level on account of increased accumulation, while Greenland contributes positively because ablation increases more rapidly. The uncertainty in the results is about 20% for Antarctica and 35% for Greenland. Changes in ice-sheet topography and dynamics are not included, but we discuss their possible effects. For an annual- and area-average warming exceeding 4.5 +/- 0.9 K in Greenland and 3.1 +/- 0.8 K in the global average, the net surface mass balance of the Greenland ice sheet becomes negative, in which case it is likely that the ice sheet would eventually be eliminated, raising global-average sea level by 7 m.

Understanding and projecting sea level change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. The AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of the AR4 in 2007, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth's gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in regional projections. While potentially valuable, semi-empirical models have important limitations, and their projections should be treated with caution

The drivers of projected North Atlantic sea level change

Sea level change predicted by the CMIP5 atmosphere–ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) is not spatially homogeneous. In particular, the sea level change in the North Atlantic is usually characterised by a meridional dipole pattern with higher sea level rise north of 40°N and lower to the south. The spread among models is also high in that region. Here we evaluate the role of surface buoyancy fluxes by carrying out simulations with the FAMOUS low-resolution AOGCM forced by surface freshwater and heat flux changes from CO2-forced climate change experiments with CMIP5 AOGCMs, and by a standard idealised surface freshwater flux applied in the North Atlantic. Both kinds of buoyancy flux change lead to the formation of the sea level dipole pattern, although the effect of the heat flux has a greater magnitude, and is the main cause of the spread of results among the CMIP5 models. By using passive tracers in FAMOUS to distinguish between additional and redistributed buoyancy, we show that the enhanced sea level rise north of 40°N is mainly due to the direct steric effect (the reduction of sea water density) caused by adding heat or freshwater locally. The surface buoyancy forcing also causes a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, and the consequent reduction of the northward ocean heat transport imposes a negative tendency on sea level rise, producing the reduced rise south of 40°N. However, unlike previous authors, we find that this indirect effect of buoyancy forcing is generally less important than the direct one, except in a narrow band along the east coast of the US, where it plays a major role and leads to sea level rise, as found by previous authors.

Photosynthetic and anatomical responses of Eucalyptus grandis leaves to potassium and sodium supply in a field experiment

Although vast areas in tropical regions have weathered soils with low potassium (K) levels, little is known about the effects of K supply on the photosynthetic physiology of trees. This study assessed the effects of K and sodium (Na) supply on the diffusional and biochemical limitations to photosynthesis in Eucalyptus grandis leaves. A field experiment comparing treatments receiving K (+K) or Na (+Na) with a control treatment (C) was set up in a K-deficient soil. The net CO2 assimilation rates were twice as high in +K and 1.6 times higher in +Na than in the C as a result of lower stomatal and mesophyll resistance to CO2 diffusion and higher photosynthetic capacity. The starch content was higher and soluble sugar was lower in +K than in C and +Na, suggesting that K starvation disturbed carbon storage and transport. The specific leaf area, leaf thickness, parenchyma thickness, stomatal size and intercellular air spaces increased in +K and +Na compared to C. Nitrogen and chlorophyll concentrations were also higher in +K and +Na than in C. These results suggest a strong relationship between the K and Na supply to E. grandis trees and the functional and structural limitations to CO2 assimilation rates. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

An assessment of the economic impact of climate change on the Energy Sector in Trinidad and Tobago

The energy sector is a dominant one in Trinidad and Tobago and it plays an important role in the twin-island republic‟s economy. In 2008, the share of the energy sector in gross domestic product (GDP) amounted to approximately 48% while contributing 57% to total Government revenue. In that same year, the sector‟s share of merchandise exports was 88%, made up mainly of refined oil products including petroleum, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, 2009). Trinidad and Tobago is the main exporter of oil in the Caribbean region and the main producer of liquefied natural gas in Latin America and the Caribbean. The role of the country‟s energy sector is, therefore, not limited to serving as the engine of growth for the national economy but also includes providing energy security for the small island developing States of the Caribbean. However, with its hydrocarbon-based economy, Trinidad and Tobago is ranked seventh in the world in terms of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita, producing an estimated 40 million tonnes of CO2 annually. Almost 90% of these CO2 emissions are attributed directly to the energy sector through petrochemical production (56%), power generation (30%) and flaring (3%). Trinidad and Tobago is a ratified signatory to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Kyoto Protocol. Although, as a non-Annex 1 country, Trinidad and Tobago is not required to cut its greenhouse gas emissions under the Protocol, it is currently finalizing a climate change policy document as well as a national energy policy with specific strategies to address climate change. The present study complements the climate change policy document by providing an economic analysis of the impact that climate change could have on the energy sector in Trinidad and Tobago under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change alternative climate scenarios (A2 and B2) as compared to a baseline situation of no climate change. Results of analyses indicate that, in the short-run, climate change, represented by change in temperature, is not a significant determinant of domestic consumption of energy, electricity in particular, in Trinidad and Tobago. With energy prices subsidized domestically and fixed for years at a time, energy price does not play a role in determining electricity demand. Economic growth, as indicated by Gross Domestic Product (GDP), is the single major determinant of electricity consumption in the short-run. In the long-run, temperature, GDP, and patterns of electricity use, jointly determine electricity consumption. Variations in average annual temperature due to climate change for the A2 scenario are expected to lead to an increase in electricity consumption per capita, equivalent to an annual increase of 1.07% over the 2011 baseline value of electricity consumption per capita. Under the B2 scenario, the average annual increase in electricity consumption per capita over the 2011 baseline value is expected to be 1.01%. The estimated economic impact of climate change on electricity consumption for the period 2011-2050 is valued at US$ 142.88 million under the A2 scenario and US$ 134.83million under the B2 scenario. These economic impact estimates are equivalent to a loss of 0.737% of 2009 GDP under the A2 climate scenario and a loss of 0.695% of 2009 GDP under the B2 scenario. On the energy supply side, sea level rise and storm surges present significant risks to oil installations and infrastructure at the Petroleum Company of Trinidad and Tobago (PETROTRIN) Pointe-a-Pierre facilities (Singh and El Fouladi, 2006). However, data limitations do not permit the conduct of an economic analysis of the impact of projected sea level rise on oil and gas production.

Institutional report of the ECLAC subregional headquaters for the Caribbean on the support provided to Caribbean small island developing states for the implementation of the Mauritius strategy

This paper presents a review of the support provided by the ECLAC Subregional Headquarters for the Caribbean to small island developing States in the Caribbean for the further implementation of the Mauritius Strategy for Implementation of the Barbados Programme of Action. This report forms part of the MSI+5 Review and addresses structural support through the establishment of the Regional Coordinating Mechanism and the Technical Advisory Committee, and the applied research conducted by ECLAC which is intended to lead to policy implementation.

Desenvolvimento da vegetação e morfologia da foz do Amazonas-PA e rio Doce-ES durante o Quaternário tardio

Este trabalho compara as mudanças morfológicas e vegetacionais ocorridas ao longo da zona costeira da Ilha de Marajó, litoral amazônico, e da planície costeira do Rio Doce, sudeste do Brasil, durante o Holoceno e Pleistoceno tardio/Holoceno, respectivamente, com foco especificamente sobre a resposta dos manguezais para as flutuações do nível do mar e mudanças climáticas, já identificadas em vários estudos ao longo da costa brasileira. Esta abordagem integra datações por radiocarbono, descrição de características sedimentares, dados de pólen, e indicadores geoquímicos orgânicos (δ¹³C, δ¹₵N e C/N). Na planície costeira do Rio Doce entre ~47.500 e 29.400 anos cal AP, um sistema deltaico foi desenvolvido em resposta principalmente à diminuição do nível do mar. O aumento do nível do mar pós-glacial causou uma incursão marinha com invasão da zona costeira, favorecendo a evolução de um sistema estuarino/lagunar com planícies lamosas ocupadas por manguezais entre pelo menos ~7400 e ~5100 anos cal AP. Considerando a Ilha de Marajó durante o Holoceno inicial e médio (entre ~7500 e ~3200 anos cal AP) a área de manguezal aumentou nas planícies de maré lamosas com acúmulo de matéria orgânica estuarina/marinha. Provavelmente, isso foi resultado da incursão marinha causada pela elevação do nível do mar pós-glacial associada a uma subsidência tectônica da região. As condições de seca na região amazônica durante o Holoceneo inicial e médio provocou um aumento da salinidade no estuário, que contribuiu para a expansão do manguezal. Portanto, o efeito de subida do nível relativo do mar foi determinante para o estabelecimento dos manguezais na sua atual posição nas regiões norte e sudeste do Brasil. Entretanto, durante o Holoceno tardio (~3050-1880 anos cal AP) os manguezais em ambas as regiões retrairam para pequenas áreas, com algumas delas substituídas por vegetação de água doce. Isso foi causado pelo aumento da vazão dos rios associada a um período mais úmido registrado na região amazônica, enquanto que na planície costeira do Rio Doce, os manguezais encolheram em resposta a um aumento da entrada de sedimento fluvial associado a uma queda no nível relativo do mar.

Effect of blood haemoglobin concentration on V(O2,max) and cardiovascular function in lowlanders acclimatised to 5260 m

[EN] The principal aim of this investigation was to determine the influence of blood haemoglobin concentration ([Hb]) on maximal exercise capacity and maximal O(2) consumption (V(O(2),max)) in healthy subjects acclimatised to high altitude. Secondarily, we examined the effects of [Hb] on the regulation of cardiac output (CO), blood pressure and muscular blood flow (LBF) during exercise. Eight Danish lowlanders (three females and five males; 24 +/- 0.6 years, mean +/- S.E.M.) performed submaximal and maximal exercise on a cycle ergometer after 9 weeks at an altitude of 5260 m (Mt Chacaltaya, Bolivia). This was done first with the high [Hb] resulting from acclimatisation and again 2-4 days later, 1 h after isovolaemic haemodilution with Dextran 70 to near sea level [Hb]. After measurements at maximal exercise while breathing air at each [Hb], subjects were switched to hyperoxia (55 % O(2) in N(2)) and the measurements were repeated, increasing the work rate as tolerated. Hyperoxia increased maximal power output and leg V(O(2),max), showing that breathing ambient air at 5260 m, V(O(2),max) is limited by the availability of O(2) rather than by muscular oxidative capacity. Altitude increased [Hb] by 36 % from 136 +/- 5 to 185 +/- 5 g l(-1) (P < 0.001), while haemodilution (replacing 1 l of blood with 1 l of 6 % Dextran) lowered [Hb] by 24 % to 142 +/- 6 g l(-1) (P < 0.001). Haemodilution had no effect on maximal pulmonary or leg V(O(2),max), or power output. Despite higher LBF, leg O(2) delivery was reduced and maximal V(O(2)) was thus maintained by higher O(2) extraction. While CO increased linearly with work rate irrespective of [Hb] or inspired oxygen fraction (F(I,O(2))), both LBF and leg vascular conductance were systematically higher when [Hb] was low. Close and significant relationships were seen between LBF (and CO) and both plasma noradrenaline and K(+) concentrations, independently of [Hb] and F(I,O(2)). In summary, under conditions where O(2) supply limits maximal exercise, the increase in [Hb] with altitude acclimatisation does not improve maximal exercise capacity or V(O(2),max), and does not alter peak CO. However, LBF and vascular conductance are higher at altitude when [Hb] is lowered to sea level values, with both relating closely to catecholamine and potassium concentrations. This suggests that the lack of effect of [Hb] on V(O(2),max) may involve reciprocal changes in LBF via local metabolic control of the muscle vasculature.

Global pulses of organic carbon burial in deep-sea sediments during glacial maxima

The burial of organic carbon in marine sediments removes carbon dioxide from the ocean–atmosphere pool, provides energy to the deep biosphere, and on geological timescales drives the oxygenation of the atmosphere. Here we quantify natural variations in the burial of organic carbon in deep-sea sediments over the last glacial cycle. Using a new data compilation of hundreds of sediment cores, we show that the accumulation rate of organic carbon in the deep sea was consistently higher (50%) during glacial maxima than during interglacials. The spatial pattern and temporal progression of the changes suggest that enhanced nutrient supply to parts of the surface ocean contributed to the glacial burial pulses, with likely additional contributions from more efficient transfer of organic matter to the deep sea and better preservation of organic matter due to reduced oxygen exposure. These results demonstrate a pronounced climate sensitivity for this global carbon cycle sink.

(Table 1) Iceberg characteristics and start and end date and location of iceberg buoys in the Weddell Sea

The drift of 52 icebergs tagged with GPS buoys in the Weddell Sea since 1999 has been investigated with respect to prevalent drift tracks, sea ice/iceberg interaction, and freshwater fluxes. Buoys were deployed on small- to medium-sized icebergs (edge lengths ? 5 km) in the southwestern and eastern Weddell Sea. The basin-scale iceberg drift of this size class was established. In the western Weddell Sea, icebergs followed a northward course with little deviation and mean daily drift rates up to 9.5 ± 7.3 km/d. To the west of 40°W the drift of iceberg and sea ice was coherent. In the highly consolidated perennial sea ice cover of 95% the sea ice exerted a steering influence on the icebergs and was thus responsible for the coherence of the drift tracks. The northward drift of buoys to the east of 40°W was interrupted by large deviations due to the passage of low-pressure systems. Mean daily drift rates in this area were 11.5 ± 7.2 km/d. A lower threshold of 86% sea ice concentration for coherent sea ice/iceberg movement was determined by examining the sea ice concentration derived from Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) and Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS (AMSR-E) satellite data. The length scale of coherent movement was estimated to be at least 200 km, about half the value found for the Arctic Ocean but twice as large as previously suggested. The freshwater fluxes estimated from three iceberg export scenarios deduced from the iceberg drift pattern were highly variable. Assuming a transit time in the Weddell Sea of 1 year, the iceberg meltwater input of 31 Gt which is about a third of the basal meltwater input from the Filchner Ronne Ice Shelf but spreads across the entire Weddell Sea. Iceberg meltwater export of 14.2 × 103 m3 s?1, if all icebergs are exported, is in the lower range of freshwater export by sea ice.

Sea ice cover, and bottom water and sediment characteristics at stations in the Amundsen Gulf, Canada

Seasonal dynamics in the activity of Arctic shelf benthos have been the subject of few local studies, and the pronounced among-site variability characterizing their results makes it difficult to upscale and generalize their conclusions. In a regional study encompassing five sites at 100-595 m water depth in the southeastern Beaufort Sea, we found that total pigment concentrations in surficial sediments, used as proxies of general food supply to the benthos, rose significantly after the transition from ice-covered conditions in spring (March-June 2008) to open-water conditions in summer (June-August 2008), whereas sediment Chl a concentrations, typical markers of fresh food input, did not. Macrobenthic biomass (including agglutinated foraminifera >500 µm) varied significantly among sites (1.2-6.4 g C/m**2 in spring, 1.1-12.6 g C/m**2 in summer), whereas a general spring-to-summer increase was not detected. Benthic carbon remineralisation also ranged significantly among sites (11.9-33.2 mg C/m**2/day in spring, 11.6-44.4 mg C/m**2/day in summer) and did in addition exhibit a general significant increase from spring-to-summer. Multiple regression analysis suggests that in both spring and summer, sediment Chl a concentration is the prime determinant of benthic carbon remineralisation, but other factors have a significant secondary influence, such as foraminiferan biomass (negative in both seasons), water depth (in spring) and infaunal biomass (in summer). Our findings indicate the importance of the combined and dynamic effects of food supply and benthic community patterns on the carbon remineralisation of the polar shelf benthos in seasonally ice-covered seas.

Recent distribution and accumulation of organic carbon on the continental margin west off Spitsbergen

The study compiles the controlling factors for organic matter sedimentation patterns from a suite of organogeochemical parameters in surface sediments off Spitsbergen and direct seabed observations using a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV). In addition we assess its storage rates as well as the potential of carbon sinks on the northwestern margin of the Barents Sea with short sediment cores from a selected fjord environment (Storfjord). While sedimentation in the fjords is mainly controlled by river/meltwater discharge and coastal erosion by sea ice/glaciers resulting in high supply of terrigenous organic matter, Atlantic water inflow, and thus enhanced marine organic matter supply, characterizes the environment on the outer shelf and slope. Local deviations from this pattern, particularly on the shelf, are due to erosion and out washing of fine-grained material by bottom currents. Spots dominated by marine productivity close to the island have been found at the outer Isfjord and west off Prins Karls Forland as well as off the Kongsfjord/Krossfjord area and probably reflect local upwelling of nutrient-rich Atlantic water-derived water masses. Accumulation rates of marine organic carbon as well as reconstructed primary productivities decreased since the middle of the last century. Negative correlation of the Isfjord temperature record with reconstructed productivities in the Storfjord could be explained by a reduced annual duration of the marginal ice zone in the area due to global warming. Extremely high accumulation rates of marine organic carbon between 5.4 and 17.2 g/m**2/yr mark the Storfjord area, and probably high-latitude fjord environments in general, as a sink for carbon dioxide.

Geochemical data and mineralogical properties of bulk sediment composition of ODP Hole 195-1202B

During Leg 195 of the Ocean Drilling Program, Site 1202 was drilled in the subtropical northwestern Pacific Ocean beneath the Kuroshio (Black Current) between northern Taiwan and the Ryukyu Island Arc on the northern flank of the I-Lan Ridge at 1274 m water depth. The upper 110 m of the Site 1202 section, composed of dark grey calcareous silty clay, provide an expanded record of environmental changes during the last 28 kyr. The sediments were deposited at high sedimentation rates between 3.0 and 5.0 m/kyr and peak values of 9.0 m/kyr between 15.1 and 11.2 ka BP. Variations in the modes and sources of detrital sediment input, as inferred from sediment granulometry, mineralogy, and elemental XRF-scanner data, reflect changes in environmental boundary conditions related to sea-level changes, Kuroshio variability, and the climate-driven modes of fluvial runoff. The provenance data point to increased sediment supply from northwestern Taiwan between 28 and 19.5 ka BP and from East China sources between 19.5 and 11.2 ka BP. The change in provenance at 19.5 ka BP reflects increased fluvial runoff from the Yangtze River and strong sediment reworking from the East China Sea shelf in the course of increased humidity and postglacial sea-level rise, particularly after 15.1 ka BP. The Holocene was dominated by sediments that originated from rivers in northeastern Taiwan. For the pre-Holocene period prior to 11.2 ka BP, low portions of sortable silt (63-10 ?m) show that the Kuroshio did not enter the Okinawa Trough, because of low sea-level. In turn, high proportions of sortable silt and sediment provenance from northeastern Taiwan point to strong ocean circulation under the direct and persistent influence of the Kuroshio during the Holocene. The reentrance of the Kuroshio to the Okinawa Trough was heralded by two pulses in relative current strengthening at 11.2 and 9.5 ka BP, as documented by stepwise increases in sortable silt in the lower Holocene section. From a global perspective, environmental changes in the southern Okinawa Trough show affinities to climate change in the western Pacific warm pool with little influence of climate teleconnections from the North Atlantic realm, otherwise seen in many other marine and terrestrial palaeoclimate records from southeastern Asia.

Concentrations of suspended matter and heavy metals in melted ice- and snow water from the Barents Sea

In September-October 1998, during Cruise 14 of R/V Akademik Fedorov to the Barents Sea, in the region of 82° N between the Spitsbergen and Novaya Zemlya archipelagos samples of snow and ice were collected within four polygons. By means of atomic absorption with an electothermal atomizer (onboard the ship) in filtered (dissolved form) and unfiltered (sum of dissolved and particulate forms) samples of snow melt and ice melt concentrations of Fe, Mn, Cu, Cr, Ni, Co, Pb, and Cd were determined in order to estimate level of potential contamination of snow and ice with these metals. Excluding data on Ni, Cd (and probably Cu) in ice that were regarded to be unsatisfactory because of probable contamination of the ice samples during drilling concentrations of all the elements in snow and ice of the northern part of the Barents Sea appeared to be close to their background values or below. An attempt to identify the main sources of metal supply to snow from the atmosphere by comparison of ratios of metal particulate form to total content in snow of the Barents Sea and the same ratios in snow samples from clean regions of Finland and from contaminated areas of the Kola Peninsula showed that aerosols in the area of the expedition were supplied into the Barents Sea atmosphere from different sources, both natural and anthropogenic.

Abundance and biomass of the benthic infauna of the North Sea

In 1986 participants of the Benthos Ecology Working Group of ICES conducted a synoptic mapping of the infauna of the southern and central North Sea. Together with a mapping of the infauna of the northern North Sea by Eleftheriou and Basford (1989, doi:10.1017/S0025315400049158) this provides the database for the description of the benthic infauna of the whole North Sea in this paper. Division of the infauna into assemblages by TWINSPAN analysis separated northern assemblages from southern assemblages along the 70 m depth contour. Assemblages were further separated by the 30, 50 m and 100 m depth contour as well as by the sediment type. In addition to widely distributed species, cold water species do not occur further south than the northern edge of the Dogger Bank, which corresponds to the 50 m depth contour. Warm water species were not found north of the 100 m depth contour. Some species occur on all types of sediment but most are restricted to a special sediment and therefore these species are limited in their distribution. The factors structuring species distributions and assemblages seem to be temperature, the influence of different water masses, e.g. Atlantic water, the type of sediment and the food supply to the benthos.