Bounding the role of black carbon in the climate system: a scientific assessment

Black carbon aerosol plays a unique and important role in Earth’s climate system. Black carbon is a type of carbonaceous material with a unique combination of physical properties. This assessment provides an evaluation of black-carbon climate forcing that is comprehensive in its inclusion of all known and relevant processes and that is quantitative in providing best estimates and uncertainties of the main forcing terms: direct solar absorption; influence on liquid, mixed phase, and ice clouds; and deposition on snow and ice. These effects are calculated with climate models, but when possible, they are evaluated with both microphysical measurements and field observations. Predominant sources are combustion related, namely, fossil fuels for transportation, solid fuels for industrial and residential uses, and open burning of biomass. Total global emissions of black carbon using bottom-up inventory methods are 7500 Gg yr�-1 in the year 2000 with an uncertainty range of 2000 to 29000. However, global atmospheric absorption attributable to black carbon is too low in many models and should be increased by a factor of almost 3. After this scaling, the best estimate for the industrial-era (1750 to 2005) direct radiative forcing of atmospheric black carbon is +0.71 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of (+0.08, +1.27)Wm�-2. Total direct forcing by all black carbon sources, without subtracting the preindustrial background, is estimated as +0.88 (+0.17, +1.48) W m�-2. Direct radiative forcing alone does not capture important rapid adjustment mechanisms. A framework is described and used for quantifying climate forcings, including rapid adjustments. The best estimate of industrial-era climate forcing of black carbon through all forcing mechanisms, including clouds and cryosphere forcing, is +1.1 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of +0.17 to +2.1 W m�-2. Thus, there is a very high probability that black carbon emissions, independent of co-emitted species, have a positive forcing and warm the climate. We estimate that black carbon, with a total climate forcing of +1.1 W m�-2, is the second most important human emission in terms of its climate forcing in the present-day atmosphere; only carbon dioxide is estimated to have a greater forcing. Sources that emit black carbon also emit other short-lived species that may either cool or warm climate. Climate forcings from co-emitted species are estimated and used in the framework described herein. When the principal effects of short-lived co-emissions, including cooling agents such as sulfur dioxide, are included in net forcing, energy-related sources (fossil fuel and biofuel) have an industrial-era climate forcing of +0.22 (�-0.50 to +1.08) W m-�2 during the first year after emission. For a few of these sources, such as diesel engines and possibly residential biofuels, warming is strong enough that eliminating all short-lived emissions from these sources would reduce net climate forcing (i.e., produce cooling). When open burning emissions, which emit high levels of organic matter, are included in the total, the best estimate of net industrial-era climate forcing by all short-lived species from black-carbon-rich sources becomes slightly negative (�-0.06 W m�-2 with 90% uncertainty bounds of �-1.45 to +1.29 W m�-2). The uncertainties in net climate forcing from black-carbon-rich sources are substantial, largely due to lack of knowledge about cloud interactions with both black carbon and co-emitted organic carbon. In prioritizing potential black-carbon mitigation actions, non-science factors, such as technical feasibility, costs, policy design, and implementation feasibility play important roles. The major sources of black carbon are presently in different stages with regard to the feasibility for near-term mitigation. This assessment, by evaluating the large number and complexity of the associated physical and radiative processes in black-carbon climate forcing, sets a baseline from which to improve future climate forcing estimates.

Radiative forcing of the direct aerosol effect from AeroCom Phase II simulations

We report on the AeroCom Phase II direct aerosol effect (DAE) experiment where 16 detailed global aerosol models have been used to simulate the changes in the aerosol distribution over the industrial era. All 16 models have estimated the radiative forcing (RF) of the anthropogenic DAE, and have taken into account anthropogenic sulphate, black carbon (BC) and organic aerosols (OA) from fossil fuel, biofuel, and biomass burning emissions. In addition several models have simulated the DAE of anthropogenic nitrate and anthropogenic influenced secondary organic aerosols (SOA). The model simulated all-sky RF of the DAE from total anthropogenic aerosols has a range from −0.58 to −0.02Wm−2, with a mean of −0.27Wm−2 for the 16 models. Several models did not include nitrate or SOA and modifying the estimate by accounting for this with information from the other AeroCom models reduces the range and slightly strengthens the mean. Modifying the model estimates for missing aerosol components and for the time period 1750 to 2010 results in a mean RF for the DAE of −0.35Wm−2. Compared to AeroCom Phase I (Schulz et al., 2006) we find very similar spreads in both total DAE and aerosol component RF. However, the RF of the total DAE is stronger negative and RF from BC from fossil fuel and biofuel emissions are stronger positive in the present study than in the previous AeroCom study.We find a tendency for models having a strong (positive) BC RF to also have strong (negative) sulphate or OA RF. This relationship leads to smaller uncertainty in the total RF of the DAE compared to the RF of the sum of the individual aerosol components. The spread in results for the individual aerosol components is substantial, and can be divided into diversities in burden, mass extinction coefficient (MEC), and normalized RF with respect to AOD. We find that these three factors give similar contributions to the spread in results.

The role of soil microbes in the global carbon cycle: tracking the below-ground microbial processing of plant-derived carbon for manipulating carbon dynamics in agricultural systems.

It is well known that atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (CO2) (and other greenhouse gases) have increased markedly as a result of human activity since the industrial revolution. It is perhaps less appreciated that natural and managed soils are an important source and sink for atmospheric CO2 and that, primarily as a result of the activities of soil microorganisms, there is a soil-derived respiratory flux of CO2 to the atmosphere that overshadows by tenfold the annual CO2 flux from fossil fuel emissions. Therefore small changes in the soil carbon cycle could have large impacts on atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Here we discuss the role of soil microbes in the global carbon cycle and review the main methods that have been used to identify the microorganisms responsible for the processing of plant photosynthetic carbon inputs to soil. We discuss whether application of these techniques can provide the information required to underpin the management of agro-ecosystems for carbon sequestration and increased agricultural sustainability. We conclude that, although crucial in enabling the identification of plant-derived carbon-utilising microbes, current technologies lack the high-throughput ability to quantitatively apportion carbon use by phylogentic groups and its use efficiency and destination within the microbial metabolome. It is this information that is required to inform rational manipulation of the plant–soil system to favour organisms or physiologies most important for promoting soil carbon storage in agricultural soil.

Yield and nitrogen accumulation and partitioning in winter wheat under elevated CO2: A 3-year free-air CO2 enrichment experiment

Fossil fuel combustion and deforestation have resulted in a rapid increase in atmospheric [CO2] since the 1950’s, and it will reach about 550 μmol mol−1 in 2050. Field experiments were conducted at the Free-air CO2 Enrichment facility in Beijing, China. Winter wheat was grown to maturity under elevated [CO2] (550 ± 17 μmol mol−1) and ambient [CO2] (415 ± 16 μmol mol−1), with high nitrogen (N) supply (HN, 170 kg N ha−1) and low nitrogen supply (LN, 100 kg N ha−1) for three growing seasons from 2007 to 2010. Elevated [CO2] increased wheat grain yield by 11.4% across the three years. [CO2]-induced yield enhancements were 10.8% and 11.9% under low N and high N supply, respectively. Nitrogen accumulation under elevated [CO2] was increased by 12.9% and 9.2% at the half-way anthesis and ripening stage across three years, respectively. Winter wheat had higher nitrogen demand under elevated [CO2] than ambient [CO2], and grain yield had a stronger correlation with plant N uptake after anthesis than before anthesis at high [CO2]. Our results suggest that regulating on the N application rate and time, is likely important for sustainable grain production under future CO2 climate.

Anthropogenic heat in the city of So Paulo, Brazil

The main goal of this work is to describe the anthropogenic energy flux (Q (F)) in the city of So Paulo, Brazil. The hourly, monthly, and annual values of the anthropogenic energy flux are estimated using the inventory method, and the contributions of vehicular, stationary, and human metabolism sources from 2004 to 2007 are considered. The vehicular and stationary sources are evaluated using the primary consumption of energy based on fossil fuel, bio fuel, and electricity usage by the population. The diurnal evolution of the anthropogenic energy flux shows three relative maxima, with the largest maxima occurring early in the morning (similar to 19.9 Wm(-2)) and in the late afternoon (similar to 20.3 Wm(-2)). The relative maximum that occurs around noontime (similar to 19.6 Wm(-2)) reflects the diurnal pattern of vehicle traffic that seems to be specific to So Paulo. With respect to diurnal evolution, the energy flux released by vehicular sources (Q (FV)) contributes approximately 50% of the total anthropogenic energy flux. Stationary sources (Q (FS)) and human metabolism (Q (FM)) represent about 41% and 9% of the anthropogenic energy flux, respectively. For 2007, the monthly values of Q (FV), Q (FS), Q (FM), and Q (F) are, respectively, 16.8 +/- 0.25, 14.3 +/- 0.16, 3.5 +/- 0.03, and 34.6 +/- 0.41 MJ m(-2) month(-1). The seasonal evolution monthly values of Q (FV), Q (FS), Q (FM), and Q (F) show a relative minimum during the summer and winter vacations and a systematic and progressive increase associated with the seasonal evolution of the economic activity in So Paulo. The annual evolution of Q (F) indicates that the city of So Paulo released 355.2 MJ m(-2) year(-1) in 2004 and 415.5 MJ m(-2) year(-1) in 2007 in association with an annual rate of increase of 19.6 MJ m(-2) year(-1) (from 2004 to 2006) and 30.5 MJ m(-2) year(-1) (from 2006 to 2007). The anthropogenic energy flux corresponds to about 9% of the net radiation at the surface in the summer and 15% in the winter. The amplitude of seasonal variation of the maximum hourly value of the diurnal variation increases exponentially with latitude.

Combustion iron distribution and deposition

[1] Iron is hypothesized to be an important micronutrient for ocean biota, thus modulating carbon dioxide uptake by the ocean biological pump. Studies have assumed that atmospheric deposition of iron to the open ocean is predominantly from mineral aerosols. For the first time we model the source, transport, and deposition of iron from combustion sources. Iron is produced in small quantities during fossil fuel burning, incinerator use, and biomass burning. The sources of combustion iron are concentrated in the industrialized regions and biomass burning regions, largely in the tropics. Model results suggest that combustion iron can represent up to 50% of the total iron deposited, but over open ocean regions it is usually less than 5% of the total iron, with the highest values (< 30%) close to the East Asian continent in the North Pacific. For ocean biogeochemistry the bioavailability of the iron is important, and this is often estimated by the fraction which is soluble ( Fe(II)). Previous studies have argued that atmospheric processing of the relatively insoluble Fe(III) occurs to make it more soluble ( Fe( II)). Modeled estimates of soluble iron amounts based solely on atmospheric processing as simulated here cannot match the variability in daily averaged in situ concentration measurements in Korea, which is located close to both combustion and dust sources. The best match to the observations is that there are substantial direct emissions of soluble iron from combustion processes. If we assume observed soluble Fe/black carbon ratios in Korea are representative of the whole globe, we obtain the result that deposition of soluble iron from combustion contributes 20-100% of the soluble iron deposition over many ocean regions. This implies that more work should be done refining the emissions and deposition of combustion sources of soluble iron globally.

CARBON CREDITS AND ENERGY EFFICIENCY

International carbon credit markets are based in differences between developing and developed countries greenhouse gases emissions mitigation costs and technological limits faced by developed countries. Potential of energy efficiency measures to reduce fossil fuel usage in Brazilian industrial segments is assessed, and analysis of such potentials singles out those segments and regions more apt to generate carbon credits through Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects. Though there are currently few Brazilian CDM projects, their number may be significantly increased, which is a positive outcome. For this purpose, it is crucial that energy conservation programs estimate how CDM may improve their economic competitiveness.

Dynamic whole system testing of combined renewable heating systems : the current state of the art

Objective: For the evaluation of the energetic performance of combined renewable heating systems that supply space heat and domestic hot water for single family houses, dynamic behaviour, component interactions, and control of the system play a crucial role and should be included in test methods. Methods: New dynamic whole system test methods were developed based on “hardware in the loop” concepts. Three similar approaches are described and their differences are discussed. The methods were applied for testing solar thermal systems in combination with fossil fuel boilers (heating oil and natural gas), biomass boilers, and/or heat pumps. Results: All three methods were able to show the performance of combined heating systems under transient operating conditions. The methods often detected unexpected behaviour of the tested system that cannot be detected based on steady state performance tests that are usually applied to single components. Conclusion: Further work will be needed to harmonize the different test methods in order to reach comparable results between the different laboratories. Practice implications: A harmonized approach for whole system tests may lead to new test standards and improve the accuracy of performance prediction as well as reduce the need for field tests.

Modelling greenhouse gas emissions for Australian residential building construction

International pressure to reduce greenhouse gas emissions has forced many countries to look beyond 'demand side' measures. Several industry sectors are examining indirect requirements for energy and other resources that involve significant greenhouse gas emissions. The operation of buildings is responsible for approximately one quarter of greenhouse gas emissions in Australia. Moreover, he construction process consumes vast quantities of raw materials and complex goods and services each year. Each of the processes required for the provision of these products requires energy, and most of this is fossil fuel based. A national model of greenhouse gas emissions is required for residential building construction, to indicate where emissions reduction strategies should focus. A disaggregated input-output model is developed for the Australian residential building construction sector, and recommendations are made about how this model can be used in the development of policies of emissions mitigation for both the sector and individual residential buildings.

Comparative greenhouse emissions anayalsis of domestic solar hot water systems

It is commonly assumed that solar hot water systems save energy and reduce greenhouse emissions relative to conventional fossil fuel-powered systems. Very rarely has the life-cycle greenhouse emissions (including the embodied greenhouse emissions of manufacture) of solar hot water systems been analysed. The extent to which solar hot water systems can reduce emissions compared with conventional systems can be shown through a comparative life-cycle greenhouse emissions analysis. This method determined the time it takes for these net greenhouse emissions savings to occur, or the 'emissions payback period'. This paper presents the results of a life-cycle greenhouse emissions analysis of solar hot water systems in comparison with conventional hot water systems for a southern (Melbourne) and a northern (Brisbane) Australian city.

Machine to die for: the quest for free energy

This is about the search for 'perpetual motion' and 'free energy'. Conventional science claims that it is impossible, yet generations of inventors have been mesmerised by the promise of an engine that powers itself. The world's reliance on diminishing fossil fuel resources and the associated problems of pollution serve to spur them on. It showcases a number of dedicated, sometimes eccentric, and always obsessive individuals who have devoted their lives to this quest.

Office buildings and the environment : the increasing importance of ESD

The links between the built environment and sustainability issues such as fossil fuel consumption and climate change is clear. In developed countries buildings contribute around half of all carbon dioxide emissions and offer considerable scope for a significant contribution to sustainability through ecologically aware design and increased energy efficiency (BRE, 1996). The Australian commercial stock emits 12% of all greenhouse gas emissions however the commercial property market has some inherent barriers to sustainability (DSE, 2005). A substantial proportion of the stock is owned by institutional investors who are unconvinced by the need to improve their stock and pass on running costs to tenants (Callender & Key, 1997). As capital values are not greatly affected by sustainability, owners react by doing little or nothing and the effect is to limit sustainability related investment and undermine efforts to deliver sustainability in the sector.

Furthermore the efficiency of buildings declines over time and whilst energy efficiency is important to new design, the existing stock must be improved if urban built environment greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced. Much of the property and surveying research has previously adopted an illustrative case study approach advocating the benefits of ESD and energy efficiency in existing buildings. This research adopts a radically different approach and profiles the entire office stock of a global CBD, namely Melbourne, which is seeking to become a carbon neutral city by 2020. The research also employs scenario forecasting to model future changes to the stock over a fifteen year period. This paper sets out the rationale for the research and establishes the methodological approach adopted by the research team.

Office buildings and the environment : the increasing role of facility managers

The Australian commercial stock emits 12% of all greenhouse gas emissions however the commercial property market has some inherent barriers to sustainability (DSE, 2005). A substantial proportion of the stock is owned by institutional investors who are unconvinced by the need to improve their stock and pass on running costs to tenants (Callender & Key, 1997). The links between the built environment and sustainability issues such as fossil fuel consumption and climate change is clear. In developed countries buildings contribute around half of all carbon dioxide emissions and offer considerable scope for a significant contribution to sustainability through ecologically aware design and increased energy efficiency (BRE, 1996). As capital values are not greatly affected by sustainability, owners react by doing little or nothing and the effect is to limit sustainability-related investment and undermine efforts to deliver sustainability in the sector. Facility managers are in an influential position to help address sustainability issues via an increased awareness of energy efficiency and CO2 emissions.

Even though the efficiency of buildings is primarily focused on new stock, with an existing churn replacement rate of approximately 2-3% the existing stock must be improved if urban built environment greenhouse gas emissions are to be reduced – clearly the management of existing stock must therefore contribute to substantial savings in energy use. Much of the property and surveying research has previously adopted an illustrative case study approach advocating the benefits of ESD and energy efficiency in existing buildings. This research adopts a radically different approach and profiles the entire office stock of a global CBD, namely Melbourne, which is seeking to become a carbon neutral city by 2020 (City of Melbourne, 2003). The research also employs scenario forecasting to model future changes to the stock over a fifteen year period. This paper sets out the rationale for the research and establishes the methodological approach adopted by the research team. The results provides a unique insight into the variations between different building types and grades of office buildings, which in turn will allow facility managers to gain a better understanding of where gains in energy efficiency can be made.

Solar thermal aided power generation

Fossil fuel based power generation is and will still be the back bone of our world economy, albeit such form of power generation significantly contributes to global CO2 emissions. Solar energy is a clean, environmental friendly energy source for power generation, however solar photovoltaic electricity generation is not practical for large commercial scales due to its cost and high-tech nature. Solar thermal is another way to use solar energy to generate power. Many attempts to establish solar (solo) thermal power stations have been practiced all over the world. Although there are some advantages in solo solar thermal power systems, the efficiencies and costs of these systems are not so attractive. Alternately by modifying, if possible, the existing coal-fired power stations to generate green sustainable power, a much more efficient means of power generation can be reached. This paper presents the concept of solar aided power generation in conventional coal-fired power stations, i.e., integrating solar (thermal) energy into conventional fossil fuelled power generation cycles (termed as solar aided thermal power). The solar aided power generation (SAPG) concept has technically been derived to use the strong points of the two technologies (traditional regenerative Rankine cycle with relatively higher efficiency and solar heating at relatively low temperature range). The SAPG does not only contribute to increase the efficiencies of the conventional power station and reduce its emission of the greenhouse gases, but also provides a better way to use solar heat to generate the power. This paper presents the advantages of the SAPG at conceptual level.