A probability-based approach to setting annual catch levels.

The requirement of setting annual catch limits to prevent overfishing has been added to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act of 2006 (MSRA). Because this requirement is new, a body of applied scientific practice for deriving annual catch limits and accompanying targets does not yet exist. This article demonstrates an approach to setting levels of catch that is intended to keep the probability of future overfishing at a preset low level. The proposed framework is based on stochastic projection with uncertainty in population dynamics. The framework extends common projection methodology by including uncertainty in the limit reference point and in management implementation, and by making explicit the risk of overfishing that managers consider acceptable. The approach is illustrated with application to gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a grouper that inhabits the waters off the southeastern United States. Although devised to satisfy new legislation of the MSRA, the framework has potential application to any fishery where the management goal is to limit the risk of overfishing by controlling catch.

Panama City Fisheries Resources Office: FY 2006 Annual Report

HIGHLIGHTS FOR FY 2006 1. Captured and tagged 475 Gulf sturgeons in five Florida rivers and one bay. 2. Documented Gulf sturgeon marine movement and habitat use in the Gulf of Mexico. 3. Assisted the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) with the collection of Gulf sturgeon, implantation of acoustic tags, and monitoring of fish in a study to examine movement patterns and habitat use in Pensacola and Choctawhatchee bays post-Hurricane Ivan. 4. Provided technical assistance to Jon “Bo” Sawyer in completing a study – Summer Resting Areas of the Gulf Sturgeon in the Conecuh/Escambia River System, Alabama-Florida – for acquiring a Degree of Master of Science at Troy University, Alabama. 5. Coordinated tagging and data collection with NOAA observers aboard trawlers while collecting Gulf sturgeon during dredging operations in the coastal Gulf of Mexico. 6. Hosted the 7th Annual Gulf Sturgeon Workshop. 7. Implemented Gulf Striped Bass Restoration Plan by coordinating the 23rd Annual Morone Workshop, leading the technical committee, transporting broodfish, coordinating the stocking on the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) river system, and evaluating post-stocking success. 8. Continued updating and managing the Freshwater Mussel Survey Database, a Geographic Information System (GIS) database, for over 800 unique sites in the Northeast Gulf (NEG) drainages in Alabama (AL), Georgia (GA), and Florida (FL). 9. Formed a recovery implementation team for listed mussels in the ACF river basin and oversaw grant cooperative agreements for 14 listed and candidate freshwater mussels in the NEG watersheds. 10. Initiated a project in the Apalachicola River to relocate mussels stranded as a result of drought conditions, and calculate river flows at which mussels would be exposed. 11. Initiated a project in Sawhatchee Creek, Georgia to determine the status of threatened and endangered (T&E) freshwater mussels and target restoration projects, population assessments, and potential population augmentation to lead toward recovery of the listed species. 12. Initiated a study to determine the age and growth of the endangered fat threeridge mussel (Amblema neislerii). 13. Provided technical assistance to the Panama City Ecological Services office for a biological opinion on the operations of Jim Woodruff Lock and Dam and its effects on the listed species and designated and proposed critical habitat in the Apalachicola River, Florida. 14. Assisted with a multi-State, inter-agency team to develop a management plan to restore the Alabama shad in the ACF river system. 15. Conducted fishery surveys on Tyndall AFB, Florida and Ft. Benning, Georgia and completed a report with recommendations for future recreational fishery needs. 16. Provided fishery technical assistance to four National Wildlife Refuges (NWR) (i.e., Okefenokee NWR, Banks Lake NWR, St. Vincent NWR, and St. Marks NWR). 17. Initiated an Aquatic Resources and Recreation Fishing Survey on Department of Defense facilities located in Region 4. 18. Identified 130 road-stream crossings on Eglin AFB for rehabilitation and elimination of sediment imputs. 19. Continued the Aquatics Monitoring Program at Eglin AFB to assess techniques that determine current status and sustainability of aquatic habitat and develop a measure to determine quality or degradation of habitat. 20. Assisted Eglin AFB Natural Resource managers in revising the installation’s Integrated Natural Resources Management Plan (INRMP) and its associated component plans. 21. Coordinated recovery efforts for the endangered Okaloosa darter including population/life history surveys, stream restoration, and outreach activities. 22. Initiated a comprehensive status review of the Okaloosa darter with analyses performed to assess available habitat, preferred habitats, range expansions/reductions/fragmentations, population size, and probability of extinction. 23. Assisted the Gulf Coastal Plain Ecosystem Partnership and the Florida Fish and Wildlife Conservation Commission (FWC) under a Memorandum of Agreement to develop conservation strategies, implement monitoring and assessment programs, and secure funds for aquatic management programs in six watersheds in northwest Florida and southeast Alabama. 24. Entered into a cooperative agreement with the U.S. Air Force to encourage the conservation and rehabilitation of natural resources at Hurlburt Field, Florida. 25. Multiple outreach projects were completed to detail aquatic resources’ conservation needs and opportunities; including National Fishing Week, Earth Day, several festivals, and school outreach.

Random propagation in complex systems : nonlinear matrix recursions and epidemic spread

This dissertation studies long-term behavior of random Riccati recursions and mathematical epidemic model. Riccati recursions are derived from Kalman filtering. The error covariance matrix of Kalman filtering satisfies Riccati recursions. Convergence condition of time-invariant Riccati recursions are well-studied by researchers. We focus on time-varying case, and assume that regressor matrix is random and identical and independently distributed according to given distribution whose probability distribution function is continuous, supported on whole space, and decaying faster than any polynomial. We study the geometric convergence of the probability distribution. We also study the global dynamics of the epidemic spread over complex networks for various models. For instance, in the discrete-time Markov chain model, each node is either healthy or infected at any given time. In this setting, the number of the state increases exponentially as the size of the network increases. The Markov chain has a unique stationary distribution where all the nodes are healthy with probability 1. Since the probability distribution of Markov chain defined on finite state converges to the stationary distribution, this Markov chain model concludes that epidemic disease dies out after long enough time. To analyze the Markov chain model, we study nonlinear epidemic model whose state at any given time is the vector obtained from the marginal probability of infection of each node in the network at that time. Convergence to the origin in the epidemic map implies the extinction of epidemics. The nonlinear model is upper-bounded by linearizing the model at the origin. As a result, the origin is the globally stable unique fixed point of the nonlinear model if the linear upper bound is stable. The nonlinear model has a second fixed point when the linear upper bound is unstable. We work on stability analysis of the second fixed point for both discrete-time and continuous-time models. Returning back to the Markov chain model, we claim that the stability of linear upper bound for nonlinear model is strongly related with the extinction time of the Markov chain. We show that stable linear upper bound is sufficient condition of fast extinction and the probability of survival is bounded by nonlinear epidemic map.

Did galaxies reionize the universe?

The epoch of reionization remains one of the last uncharted eras of cosmic history, yet this time is of crucial importance, encompassing the formation of both the first galaxies and the first metals in the universe. In this thesis, I present four related projects that both characterize the abundance and properties of these first galaxies and uses follow-up observations of these galaxies to achieve one of the first observations of the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium during the heart of the reionization era.

First, we present the results of a spectroscopic survey using the Keck telescopes targeting 6.3 < z < 8.8 star-forming galaxies. We secured observations of 19 candidates, initially selected by applying the Lyman break technique to infrared imaging data from the Wide Field Camera 3 (WFC3) onboard the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). This survey builds upon earlier work from Stark et al. (2010, 2011), which showed that star-forming galaxies at 3 < z < 6, when the universe was highly ionized, displayed a significant increase in strong Lyman alpha emission with redshift. Our work uses the LRIS and NIRSPEC instruments to search for Lyman alpha emission in candidates at a greater redshift in the observed near-infrared, in order to discern if this evolution continues, or is quenched by an increase in the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium. Our spectroscopic observations typically reach a 5-sigma limiting sensitivity of < 50 AA. Despite expecting to detect Lyman alpha at 5-sigma in 7-8 galaxies based on our Monte Carlo simulations, we only achieve secure detections in two of 19 sources. Combining these results with a similar sample of 7 galaxies from Fontana et al. (2010), we determine that these few detections would only occur in < 1% of simulations if the intrinsic distribution was the same as that at z ~ 6. We consider other explanations for this decline, but find the most convincing explanation to be an increase in the neutral fraction of the intergalactic medium. Using theoretical models, we infer a neutral fraction of X_HI ~ 0.44 at z = 7.

Second, we characterize the abundance of star-forming galaxies at z > 6.5 again using WFC3 onboard the HST. This project conducted a detailed search for candidates both in the Hubble Ultra Deep Field as well as a number of additional wider Hubble Space Telescope surveys to construct luminosity functions at both z ~ 7 and 8, reaching 0.65 and 0.25 mag fainter than any previous surveys, respectively. With this increased depth, we achieve some of the most robust constraints on the Schechter function faint end slopes at these redshifts, finding very steep values of alpha_{z~7} = -1.87 +/- 0.18 and alpha_{z~8} = -1.94 +/- 0.23. We discuss these results in the context of cosmic reionization, and show that given reasonable assumptions about the ionizing spectra and escape fraction of ionizing photons, only half the photons needed to maintain reionization are provided by currently observable galaxies at z ~ 7-8. We show that an extension of the luminosity function down to M_{UV} = -13.0, coupled with a low level of star-formation out to higher redshift, can fit all available constraints on the ionization history of the universe.

Third, we investigate the strength of nebular emission in 3 < z < 5 star-forming galaxies. We begin by using the Infrared Array Camera (IRAC) onboard the Spitzer Space Telescope to investigate the strength of H alpha emission in a sample of 3.8 < z < 5.0 spectroscopically confirmed galaxies. We then conduct near-infrared observations of star-forming galaxies at 3 < z < 3.8 to investigate the strength of the [OIII] 4959/5007 and H beta emission lines from the ground using MOSFIRE. In both cases, we uncover near-ubiquitous strong nebular emission, and find excellent agreement between the fluxes derived using the separate methods. For a subset of 9 objects in our MOSFIRE sample that have secure Spitzer IRAC detections, we compare the emission line flux derived from the excess in the K_s band photometry to that derived from direct spectroscopy and find 7 to agree within a factor of 1.6, with only one catastrophic outlier. Finally, for a different subset for which we also have DEIMOS rest-UV spectroscopy, we compare the relative velocities of Lyman alpha and the rest-optical nebular lines which should trace the cites of star-formation. We find a median velocity offset of only v_{Ly alpha} = 149 km/s, significantly less than the 400 km/s observed for star-forming galaxies with weaker Lyman alpha emission at z = 2-3 (Steidel et al. 2010), and show that this decrease can be explained by a decrease in the neutral hydrogen column density covering the galaxy. We discuss how this will imply a lower neutral fraction for a given observed extinction of Lyman alpha when its visibility is used to probe the ionization state of the intergalactic medium.

Finally, we utilize the recent CANDELS wide-field, infra-red photometry over the GOODS-N and S fields to re-analyze the use of Lyman alpha emission to evaluate the neutrality of the intergalactic medium. With this new data, we derive accurate ultraviolet spectral slopes for a sample of 468 3 < z < 6 star-forming galaxies, already observed in the rest-UV with the Keck spectroscopic survey (Stark et al. 2010). We use a Bayesian fitting method which accurately accounts for contamination and obscuration by skylines to derive a relationship between the UV-slope of a galaxy and its intrinsic Lyman alpha equivalent width probability distribution. We then apply this data to spectroscopic surveys during the reionization era, including our own, to accurately interpret the drop in observed Lyman alpha emission. From our most recent such MOSFIRE survey, we also present evidence for the most distant galaxy confirmed through emission line spectroscopy at z = 7.62, as well as a first detection of the CIII]1907/1909 doublet at z > 7.

We conclude the thesis by exploring future prospects and summarizing the results of Robertson et al. (2013). This work synthesizes many of the measurements in this thesis, along with external constraints, to create a model of reionization that fits nearly all available constraints.

Probability in Quantum Mechanics: The Everett Interpretation and the Decision-Theoretic Program

The Everett interpretation of quantum mechanics is an increasingly popular alternative to the traditional Copenhagen interpretation, but there are a few major issues that prevent the widespread adoption. One of these issues is the origin of probabilities in the Everett interpretation, which this thesis will attempt to survey. The most successful resolution of the probability problem thus far is the decision-theoretic program, which attempts to frame probabilities as outcomes of rational decision making. This marks a departure from orthodox interpretations of probabilities in the physical sciences, where probabilities are thought to be objective, stemming from symmetry considerations. This thesis will attempt to offer evaluations on the decision-theoretic program.

Deep silicon grating as high-extinction-ratio polarizing beam splitter

A deep binary silicon grating as high-extinction-ratio reflective polarizing beam splitter (PBS) at the wavelength of 1550 nm is presented. The design is based on the phenomenon of total internal reflection (TIR) by using the rigorous coupled wave analysis (RCWA). The extinction ratio of the rectangular PBS grating can reach 2.5×105 with the optimum grating period of 397 nm and groove depth of 1.092 μm. The effciencies of TM-polarized wave in the 0th order and TE-polarized wave in the −1st order can both reach unity at the Littrow angle. Holographic recording technology and inductively coupled plasma (ICP) etching could be used to fabricate the silicon PBS grating.