Structured professional judgement approach to risk assessment: generalisability across patient groups for the prediction of adverse outcomes in secure mental health care

This is a redacted version of the the final thesis. Copyright material has been removed to comply with UK Copyright Law.

Physical activity habits, limitations, and predictors in people with inflammatory bowel disease: a large cross-sectional online survey

BACKGROUND: Limited evidence suggests that physical activity has beneficial effects in people with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). This study aimed to determine the physical activity habits of adults with IBD, the limitations to physical activity they experience because of their disease, and the extent to which their physical activity is affected by various demographic, clinical, and psychological factors. METHODS: Data were collected on 859 adult participants (52% with Crohn's disease, 75% women) through an online survey conducted between May and June 2016. Measures included physical activity (International Physical Activity Questionnaire), psychological symptoms (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale), fatigue (subitems of IBD fatigue scale), exercise perceptions (Exercise Benefits/Barriers Scale), and disease activity. Regression analyses were used to identify predictors of physical activity. RESULTS: Only 17% of respondents were categorized as "high active." Self-reported physical activity levels decreased, and fatigue and psychological scores increased, with increasing disease activity. Walking was the most common activity performed (57% of respondents) and running/jogging the most commonly avoided (34%). Many participants (n = 677) reported that IBD limited their physical activity, for reasons including abdominal/joint pain (70%), fatigue/tiredness (69%), disease flare-up (63%), and increased toilet urgency (61%). Physical activity was independently associated with depression, disease activity, and perceived barriers to exercise in people with Crohn's disease, and depression and age in people with ulcerative or indeterminate colitis (all P ≤ 0.038). CONCLUSIONS: This survey highlights several important factors that should be considered by designers of future physical activity interventions for people with IBD.

Associations between access to recreational physical activity facilities and body mass index in Scottish adults

BACKGROUND: The aim of this country-wide study was to link individual health and behavioural data with area-level spatial data to examine whether the body mass index (BMI) of adults was associated with access to recreational physical activity (PA) facilities by different modes of transport (bus, car, walking, cycling) and the extent to which any associations were mediated by PA participation. METHODS: Data on individual objectively-measured BMI, PA (number of days of (a) ≥20 min of moderate-to-vigorous PA, and (b) ≥15 min of sport or exercise, in previous 4 weeks), and socio-demographic characteristics were obtained from a nationally representative sample of 6365 adults. The number of accessible PA facilities per 1,000 individuals in each small area (data zones) was obtained by mapping a representative list of all fixed PA facilities throughout mainland Scotland. A novel transport network was developed for the whole country, and routes on foot, by bike, by car and by bus from the weighted population centroid of each data zone to each facility were calculated. Separate multilevel models were fitted to examine associations between BMI and each of the 24 measures of accessibility of PA facilities and BMI, adjusting for age, gender, longstanding illness, car availability, social class, dietary quality and urban/rural classification. RESULTS: We found associations (p < 0.05) between BMI and 7 of the 24 accessibility measures, with mean BMI decreasing with increasing accessibility of facilities-for example, an estimated decrease of 0.015 BMI units per additional facility within a 20-min walk (p = 0.02). None of these accessibility measures were found to be associated with PA participation. CONCLUSIONS: Our national study has shown that some measures of the accessibility of PA facilities by different modes of transport (particularly by walking and cycling) were associated with BMI; but PA participation, as measured here, did not appear to play a part in this relationship. Understanding the multi-factorial environmental influences upon obesity is key to developing effective interventions to reduce it.

The guide to the project management body of knowledge (PMBOK Guide) : applicability and contribution to project success in Australia

The PMBOK Guide is one of the most influential publications concerning the knowledge of the project manangement. Moreover, the pervasion of this guide seems to be set to increase as the basis of accreditation - in conjunction with the increasing global trend toward obtaining project management professional status. However, despite the influence and strengthening profile of this guide, reports continue to be published that detail numerous project failures in a wide range of different industries. The PMBOK Guide comprises mainly declarative (know-what) and procedural (know-how) information. In this sense, the guide is largely normative and provides a very good example of the limitations of this approach as highlighted by proponents of a move to the genuine application of positibe theory in project management.----- The aim of this paper is to determine the applicability of the guide in Australia and to determine the extent to which project success can be attributed to the guide. Project Managers from a variety of organisations were surveyed. This postal survey yielded 48 replies. Descriptive statistics was used to assess the incidence and effectivieness of all the processes in the guide. The results indicate that there were no processes that could be considered as peripheral or as a candidate for elimination from the guide. More specifically, all the processes were identified as either a key routine process or a key selective process and positively related to the level of project success. However, the results also indicated that other major factors pertaining to causal knowledge (know-why) are, at least, equally important determinants of project success. It is concluded that declarative, procedural and causal knowledge are all valuable, and given the preponderance of the first two types of knowledge, there seems to be an urgent need to now ensure an equal quest for causal knowledge. In terms of developing causal knowledge, a good starting point would appear to be both positive theory from production and economics.

Using the Internet to leverage sponsorships

This study considers the effectiveness of the Internet as a medium through which sponsorship investments can be leveraged. It considers the variables of sponsor-sponsee congruence,articulation, and the extent to which a sponsorship is leveraged via sponsor websites, in relation to consumer attitudes toward brand and company level variables across time. Results show that,consumer attitudes are more favourable for congruent sponsorships, those that are not articulated in commercially-oriented terms, and those that are leveraged via sponsor websites. Additionally, after a seven-day delay, leveraged sponsorships display sustained positive attitudes whereas those not leveraged display a decline in attitudes.

Equal employment opportunity and diversity management : can either live up to the promise of achieving gender equity?

This paper examines the extent to which women movement into management positions. Like many other countries, this progress in Australia is slow. The paper includes discussion of the theoretical explanations for this and the extent to which these are borne out in Australia. We are aware this group represents only a minority of Australian women workers, and there are many other groups of women workers for whom constraints to women’s access to senior management may not be the most pressing issue. We have, however, chosen to focus on women in management in this paper, as while there was considerable research and public policy attention directed towards this group in the 1980s and early 1990s, over the past decade there seems to have been a reluctance to continue to address this group, despite the numerical evidence that women continue to be disproportionately represented in senior management positions. We believe it’s timely to refocus on women in management.

Psychosocial predictors of intentions to engage in change supportive behaviors in an organizational context

This study utilized the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) to understand employee change readiness. The extent to which attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control predicted employees’ intentions to carry out activities that were supportive of a change event were investigated. The impact of group norm was examined as a further predictor of change-related intentions. The context of the research was a sample of 82 employees in the early stages of a re-brand. Results indicated that direct measures of attitude and subjective norm, as well as group norm, emerged as significant predictors of employees’ intentions to perform re-brand behaviors. To capture the indirect beliefs underlying attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control, participants also provided an assessment of their behavioral, normative, and control beliefs in regards to the change event, respectively. A series of MANOVAs revealed significant differences between moderate and high intenders on a range of underlying beliefs. Findings are discussed in terms of the application of the TPB for effective change management.

Implementation of an integrated, technology-based, discovery mode assessment item involving an incubation period to enhance learning outcomes for engineering maths students

In this paper we discuss our current efforts to develop and implement an exploratory, discovery mode assessment item into the total learning and assessment profile for a target group of about 100 second level engineering mathematics students. The assessment item under development is composed of 2 parts, namely, a set of "pre-lab" homework problems (which focus on relevant prior mathematical knowledge, concepts and skills), and complementary computing laboratory exercises which are undertaken within a fixed (1 hour) time frame. In particular, the computing exercises exploit the algebraic manipulation and visualisation capabilities of the symbolic algebra package MAPLE, with the aim of promoting understanding of certain mathematical concepts and skills via visual and intuitive reasoning, rather than a formal or rigorous approach. The assessment task we are developing is aimed at providing students with a significant learning experience, in addition to providing feedback on their individual knowledge and skills. To this end, a noteworthy feature of the scheme is that marks awarded for the laboratory work are primarily based on the extent to which reflective, critical thinking is demonstrated, rather than the amount of CBE-style tasks completed by the student within the allowed time. With regard to student learning outcomes, a novel and potentially critical feature of our scheme is that the assessment task is designed to be intimately linked to the overall course content, in that it aims to introduce important concepts and skills (via individual student exploration) which will be revisited somewhat later in the pedagogically more restrictive formal lecture component of the course (typically a large group plenary format). Furthermore, the time delay involved, or "incubation period", is also a deliberate design feature: it is intended to allow students the opportunity to undergo potentially important internal re-adjustments in their understanding, before being exposed to lectures on related course content which are invariably delivered in a more condensed, formal and mathematically rigorous manner. In our presentation, we will discuss in more detail our motivation and rationale for trailing such a scheme for the targeted student group. Some of the advantages and disadvantages of our approach (as we perceived them at the initial stages) will also be enumerated. In a companion paper, the theoretical framework for our approach will be more fully elaborated, and measures of student learning outcomes (as obtained from eg. student provided feedback) will be discussed.

Inequalities in cardiovascular disease mortality : the role of behavioural, physiological and social risk factors

Background: While the relationship between socioeconomic disadvantage and cardiovascular disease (CVD) is well established, the role that traditional cardiovascular risk factors play in this association remains unclear. We examined the association between education attainment and CVD mortality and the extent to which behavioural, social and physiological factors explained this relationship. Methods: Adults (n=38 355) aged 40-69 years living in Melbourne, Australia were recruited in 1990-1994. Subjects with baseline CVD risk factor data ascertained through questionnaire and physical measurement were followed for an average of 9.4 years with CVD deaths verified by review of medical records and autopsy reports. Results: CVD mortality was higher for those with primary education only compared to those who had completed tertiary education, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.66 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.11-2.49) after adjustment for age, country of birth and gender. Those from the lowest educated group had a more adverse cardiovascular risk factor profile compared to the highest educated group, and adjustment for these risk factors reduced the HR to 1.18 (95% CI 0.78-1.77). In analysis of individual risk factors, smoking and waist circumference explained most of the difference in CVD mortality between the highest and lowest education groups. Conclusions: Most of the excess CVD mortality in lower socioeconomic groups can be explained by known risk factors, particularly smoking and overweight. While targeting cardiovascular risk factors should not divert efforts from addressing the underlying determinants of health inequalities, it is essential that known risk factors are addressed effectively among lower socioeconomic groups.

The creative sector in New Zealand : mapping and economic role : report to New Zealand Trade and Enterprise

The New Zealand creative sector was responsible for almost 121,000 jobs at the time of the 2006 Census (6.3% of total employment). These are divided between • 35,751 creative specialists – persons employed doing creative work in creative industries • 42,300 support workers - persons providing management and support services in creative industries • 42,792 embedded creative workers – persons engaged in creative work in other types of enterprise The most striking feature of this breakdown is the fact that the largest group of creative workers are employed outside the creative industries, i.e. in other types of businesses. Even within the creative industries, there are fewer people directly engaged in creative work than in providing management and support. Creative sector employees earned incomes of approximately $52,000 per annum at the time of the 2006 Census. This is relatively uniform across all three types of creative worker, and is significantly above the average for all employed persons (of approximately $40,700). Creative employment and incomes were growing strongly over both five year periods between the 1996, 2001 and 2006 Censuses. However, when we compare creative and general trends, we see two distinct phases in the development of the creative sector: • rapid structural growth over the five years to 2001 (especially led by developments in ICT), with creative employment and incomes increasing rapidly at a time when they were growing modestly across the whole economy; • subsequent consolidation, with growth driven by more by national economic expansion than structural change, and creative employment and incomes moving in parallel with strong economy-wide growth. Other important trends revealed by the data are that • the strongest growth during the decade was in embedded creative workers, especially over the first five years. The weakest growth was in creative specialists, with support workers in creative industries in the middle rank, • by far the strongest growth in creative industries’ employment was in Software & digital content, which trebled in size over the decade Comparing New Zealand with the United Kingdom and Australia, the two southern hemisphere nations have significantly lower proportions of total employment in the creative sector (both in creative industries and embedded employment). New Zealand’s and Australia’s creative shares in 2001 were similar (5.4% each), but in the following five years, our share has expanded (to 5.7%) whereas Australia’s fell slightly (to 5.2%) – in both cases, through changes in creative industries’ employment. The creative industries generated $10.5 billion in total gross output in the March 2006 year. Resulting from this was value added totalling $5.1b, representing 3.3% of New Zealand’s total GDP. Overall, value added in the creative industries represents 49% of industry gross output, which is higher than the average across the whole economy, 45%. This is a reflection of the relatively high labour intensity and high earnings of the creative industries. Industries which have an above-average ratio of value added to gross output are usually labour-intensive, especially when wages and salaries are above average. This is true for Software & Digital Content and Architecture, Design & Visual Arts, with ratios of 60.4% and 55.2% respectively. However there is significant variation in this ratio between different parts of the creative industries, with some parts (e.g. Software & Digital Content and Architecture, Design & Visual Arts) generating even higher value added relative to output, and others (e.g. TV & Radio, Publishing and Music & Performing Arts) less, because of high capital intensity and import content. When we take into account the impact of the creative industries’ demand for goods and services from its suppliers and consumption spending from incomes earned, we estimate that there is an addition to economic activity of: • $30.9 billion in gross output, $41.4b in total • $15.1b in value added, $20.3b in total • 158,100 people employed, 234,600 in total The total economic impact of the creative industries is approximately four times their direct output and value added, and three times their direct employment. Their effect on output and value added is roughly in line with the average over all industries, although the effect on employment is significantly lower. This is because of the relatively high labour intensity (and high earnings) of the creative industries, which generate below-average demand from suppliers, but normal levels of demand though expenditure from incomes. Drawing on these numbers and conclusions, we suggest some (slightly speculative) directions for future research. The goal is to better understand the contribution the creative sector makes to productivity growth; in particular, the distinctive contributions from creative firms and embedded creative workers. The ideas for future research can be organised into the several categories: • Understanding the categories of the creative sector– who is doing the business? In other words, examine via more fine grained research (at a firm level perhaps) just what is the creative contribution from the different aspects of the creative sector industries. It may be possible to categorise these in terms of more or less striking innovations. • Investigate the relationship between the characteristics and the performance of the various creative industries/ sectors; • Look more closely at innovation at an industry level e.g. using an index of relative growth of exports, and see if this can be related to intensity of use of creative inputs; • Undertake case studies of the creative sector; • Undertake case studies of the embedded contribution to growth in the firms and industries that employ them, by examining taking several high performing noncreative industries (in the same way as proposed for the creative sector). • Look at the aggregates – drawing on the broad picture of the extent of the numbers of creative workers embedded within the different industries, consider the extent to which these might explain aspects of the industries’ varied performance in terms of exports, growth and so on. • This might be able to extended to examine issues like the type of creative workers that are most effective when embedded, or test the hypothesis that each industry has its own particular requirements for embedded creative workers that overwhelms any generic contributions from say design, or IT.

Approaches for calculation of holding costs in the context of greenfield residential development

There are increasing indications that the contribution of holding costs and its impact on housing affordability is very significant. Their importance and perceived high level impact can be gauged from considering the unprecedented level of attention policy makers have given them recently. This may be evidenced by the embedding of specific strategies to address burgeoning holding costs (and particularly those cost savings associated with streamlining regulatory assessment) within statutory instruments such as the Queensland Housing Affordability Strategy, and the South East Queensland Regional Plan. However, several key issues require further investigation. Firstly, the computation and methodology behind the calculation of holding costs varies widely. In fact, it is not only variable, but in some instances completely ignored. Secondly, some ambiguity exists in terms of the inclusion of various elements of holding costs and assessment of their relative contribution. Perhaps this may in part be explained by their nature: such costs are not always immediately apparent. They are not as visible as more tangible cost items associated with greenfield development such as regulatory fees, government taxes, acquisition costs, selling fees, commissions and others. Holding costs are also more difficult to evaluate since for the most part they must be ultimately assessed over time in an ever-changing environment based on their strong relationship with opportunity cost which is in turn dependant, inter alia, upon prevailing inflation and / or interest rates. This paper seeks to provide a more detailed investigation of those elements related to holding costs, and in so doing determine the size of their impact specifically on the end user. It extends research in this area clarifying the extent to which holding costs impact housing affordability. Geographical diversity indicated by the considerable variation between various planning instruments and the length of regulatory assessment periods suggests further research should adopt a case study approach in order to test the relevance of theoretical modelling conducted.

Identification of alcohol involvement in injury-related hospitalisations using routine data compared to medical record review

Objective: To quantify the extent to which alcohol related injuries are adequately identified in hospitalisation data using ICD-10-AM codes indicative of alcohol involvement. Method: A random sample of 4373 injury-related hospital separations from 1 July 2002 to 30 June 2004 were obtained from a stratified random sample of 50 hospitals across 4 states in Australia. From this sample, cases were identified as involving alcohol if they contained an ICD-10-AM diagnosis or external cause code referring to alcohol, or if the text description extracted from the medical records mentioned alcohol involvement. Results: Overall, identification of alcohol involvement using ICD codes detected 38% of the alcohol-related sample, whilst almost 94% of alcohol-related cases were identified through a search of the text extracted from the medical records. The resultant estimate of alcohol involvement in injury-related hospitalisations in this sample was 10%. Emergency department records were the most likely to identify whether the injury was alcohol-related with almost three-quarters of alcohol-related cases mentioning alcohol in the text abstracted from these records. Conclusions and Implications: The current best estimates of the frequency of hospital admissions where alcohol is involved prior to the injury underestimate the burden by around 62%. This is a substantial underestimate that has major implications for public policy, and highlights the need for further work on improving the quality and completeness of routine administrative data sources for identification of alcohol-related injuries.

Performance measurement and continuous improvement : are they linked to manufacturing strategy?

To maintain or achieve competitiveness and profitability, a manufacturing firm or enterprise must respond to a range of challenges, including rapid improvements in technology; declining employment and output; globalisation of markets and environmental requirements. In addition, substantial changes in government policy have had important impacts in many countries, as have the increasing levels of global trade. Manufacturing enterprises need to have a clear understanding of what their customers want and why customers purchase their products rather than purchase from their competitors. They need to fully understand the aims of the business in terms of its customers, market segments, product attributes, geographical markets and performance. Continuous Improvement (CI) methods have become widely adopted and regarded as providing an important component of increased company competitiveness. This article examines the extent to which continuous improvement activities have contributed to the different areas of business performance.

Resembling Florida : transpacific transfer of ideas from one Gold Coast to another

Despite different political structures and planning systems, striking physical similarities exist between the tourist destinations of the Gold Coasts of Queensland and Florida. Both have been fast developing sub-tropical coastal areas, subject to massive land booms, speculation, and entrepreneurs’ grand visions throughout their history. As a result, both have become tourist destinations of international renown. Drawing on historical sources, the present research seeks to investigate the extent to which these similarities result from taking American cities as a model for newer development in Australia; in this case from transferring planning and marketing ideas from one Gold Coast to another, with the development of the Florida Gold Coast setting precedent for the development of the Queensland Gold Coast.

The role of the health surveillance program in the Queensland coal mining industry

The Queensland Coal Industry Employees Health Scheme was implemented in 1993 to provide health surveillance for all Queensland coal industry workers. Tt1e government, mining employers and mining unions agreed that the scheme should operate for seven years. At the expiry of the scheme, an assessment of the contribution of health surveillance to meet coal industry needs would be an essential part of determining a future health surveillance program. This research project has analysed the data made available between 1993 and 1998. All current coal industry employees have had at least one health assessment. The project examined how the centralised nature of the Health Scheme benefits industry by identi~)jng key health issues and exploring their dimensions on a scale not possible by corporate based health surveillance programs. There is a body of evidence that indicates that health awareness - on the scale of the individual, the work group and the industry is not a part of the mining industry culture. There is also growing evidence that there is a need for this culture to change and that some change is in progress. One element of this changing culture is a growth in the interest by the individual and the community in information on health status and benchmarks that are reasonably attainable. This interest opens the way for health education which contains personal, community and occupational elements. An important element of such education is the data on mine site health status. This project examined the role of health surveillance in the coal mining industry as a tool for generating the necessary information to promote an interest in health awareness. The Health Scheme Database provides the material for the bulk of the analysis of this project. After a preliminary scan of the data set, more detailed analysis was undertaken on key health and related safety issues that include respiratory disorders, hearing loss and high blood pressure. The data set facilitates control for confounding factors such as age and smoking status. Mines can be benchmarked to identify those mines with effective health management and those with particular challenges. While the study has confirmed the very low prevalence of restrictive airway disease such as pneu"moconiosis, it has demonstrated a need to examine in detail the emergence of obstructive airway disease such as bronchitis and emphysema which may be a consequence of the increasing use of high dust longwall technology. The power of the Health Database's electronic data management is demonstrated by linking the health data to other data sets such as injury data that is collected by the Department of l\1mes and Energy. The analysis examines serious strain -sprain injuries and has identified a marked difference between the underground and open cut sectors of the industry. The analysis also considers productivity and OHS data to examine the extent to which there is correlation between any pairs ofJpese and previously analysed health parameters. This project has demonstrated that the current structure of the Coal Industry Employees Health Scheme has largely delivered to mines and effective health screening process. At the same time, the centralised nature of data collection and analysis has provided to the mines, the unions and the government substantial statistical cross-sectional data upon which strategies to more effectively manage health and relates safety issues can be based.